Simulation Results: Constellation Furyk & Friends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.77% 27 26 23
Billy Andrade 0.18% 556 276 56
Bob Estes 0.39% 256 111
Boo Weekley 0.25% 400 91 8
Brandt Jobe 0.08% 1250 151 30
Brendan Jones 0.11% 909 751 3
Brett Quigley 1.01% 99 81 59
Brian Gay 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 43 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 4.04% 25 15 2
Chad Campbell 0.12% 833 281 8
Charlie Wi 0.53% 189 111 50
Chris DiMarco 0.02% 5000 1501 50
Colin Montgomerie 0.17% 588 151 63
Corey Pavin 0.01% 10000 1251 75
David Bransdon 0.15% 667 301 23
David Duval 0.06% 1667 401 8
David Toms 0.28% 357 251 38
Davis Love 0.00% 10000 401 72
Dicky Pride 0.71% 141 81 27
Doug Barron 2.09% 48 29 65
Duffy Waldorf 0.01% 10000 2501 77
Eric Axley 0.00% 10000 1501 68
Felipe Aguilar 0.18% 556 281 59
Freddie Jacobson 3.34% 30 21 35
Gene Sauers 0.15% 667 351 12
Glen Day 0.10% 1000 276 35
Greg Chalmers 1.20% 83 56 12
Harrison Frazar 0.40% 250 111 43
Heath Slocum 0.45% 222 101 16
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.09% 1111 401 56
J.J. Henry 0.38% 263 401 0.10% Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Caron 1.85% 54 51 30
Jay Haas 0.05% 2000 751 68
Jeff Maggert 0.07% 1429 601 74
Jim Furyk 0.01% 10000 301 70
Joe Durant 0.34% 294 201 53
John Rollins 0.54% 185 176 16
John Senden 0.00% 10000 1501 76
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.01% 10000 1001 63
Ken Duke 0.24% 417 226 59
Ken Tanigawa 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 65 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett 0.05% 2000 501 30
Mario Tiziani 0.48% 208 111 59
Mark Hensby 1.43% 70 36 30
Mark Walker 0.12% 833 601 16
Mark Wilson 0.30% 333 176 23
Matt Gogel 1.01% 99 67 3
Michael Wright 0.59% 169 81 56
Miguel Angel Jimenez 10.33% 9.7 11 1.40% 38 -1.4 BetMGM: 10/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mike Weir 0.48% 208 101 38
Paul Stankowski 1.16% 86 51 27
Retief Goosen 4.59% 22 15 12
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.11% 90 67 70
Rob Labritz 0.15% 667 141 43
Robert Karlsson 0.48% 208 141 11
Rocco Mediate 0.04% 2500 301 38
Rod Pampling 0.66% 152 151 53
Scott Dunlap 0.04% 2500 1001 43
Scott McCarron 0.03% 3333 501 65
Shane Bertsch 0.40% 250 126 53
Soren Kjeldsen 6.60% 15 15 12
Stephen Ames 1.51% 66 61 35
Steve Flesch 1.12% 89 67 3
Steve Jones 0.00% 10000 1501 43
Steven Alker 14.57% 6.9 8 2.40% 16 -2.4 PaddyPower: 7/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink 12.57% 8 7.5 16
Stuart Appleby 0.27% 370 151 16
Tag Ridings 1.27% 79 67 16
Thomas Bjorn 2.41% 41 34 3
Thongchai Jaidee 0.93% 108 71 43
Tim O'Neal 0.75% 133 101 30
Tim Petrovic 0.37% 270 141 27
Tom Lehman 0.01% 10000 2501 72
Tom Pernice 0.01% 10000 2001 50
Tommy Gainey 4.48% 22 23 0.10% 1 1.375 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vijay Singh 2.62% 38 26 3
Woody Austin 0.01% 10000 1251 43
Y.E. Yang 2.58% 39 36 23

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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