Simulation Results: Dominion Energy Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.11% 32 26 55
Angel Cabrera 2.03% 49 34 69
Bernhard Langer 4.10% 24 29 0.70% 5 0.23333333333333 Star Sports: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade 0.20% 500 426 66
Bo Van Pelt 0.69% 145 81 36
Boo Weekley 0.40% 250 86 25
Brendan Jones 0.23% 435 101 50
Brett Quigley 0.53% 189 161 46
Brian Gay 0.39% 256 426 0.20% 41 -0.2 Unibet: 425/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy 3.84% 26 17 14
Chad Campbell 0.22% 455 181 67
Charlie Wi 0.46% 217 151 14
Chris DiMarco 0.03% 3333 2501 55
Darren Clarke 2.66% 38 31 25
David Bransdon 0.20% 500 251 55
David Duval 0.19% 526 251 50
Dicky Pride 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 25 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 0.95% 105 51 25
Ernie Els 7.44% 13 13 2
Felipe Aguilar 0.15% 667 501 32
Freddie Jacobson 1.67% 60 51 4
Greg Chalmers 0.74% 135 81 25
Harrison Frazar 0.38% 263 151 32
Heath Slocum 0.38% 263 131 25
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.10% 1000 1001 46
Jason Caron 1.51% 66 71 0.10% 36 -0.1 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Maggert 0.08% 1250 1001 11
Jerry Kelly 3.52% 28 31 0.30% 14 -0.3 Star Sports: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Durant 0.28% 357 426 55
Justin Leonard 2.74% 36 23 1
K.J. Choi 1.17% 85 121 0.30% 8 -0.3 Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Duke 0.18% 556 351 21
Ken Tanigawa 0.39% 256 201 36
Kevin Sutherland 0.91% 110 91 62
Kirk Triplett 0.06% 1667 1001 55
Mario Tiziani 0.34% 294 181 55
Mark Hensby 1.13% 88 67 11
Mark Wilson 0.24% 417 251 55
Matt Gogel 0.67% 149 67 14
Michael Wright 0.46% 217 131 8
Miguel Angel Jimenez 5.12% 20 19 41
Mike Weir 0.39% 256 161 14
Padraig Harrington 5.82% 17 15 46
Paul Goydos 0.41% 244 201 68
Paul Stankowski 0.90% 111 81 50
Retief Goosen 2.31% 43 26 5
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.71% 141 51 8
Richard Green 1.45% 69 51 32
Robert Karlsson 0.49% 204 71 41
Rod Pampling 0.46% 217 201 46
Scott Hend 1.14% 88 36 32
Scott McCarron 0.05% 2000 1251 62
Scott Parel 0.31% 323 426 0.10% 21 -0.1 Unibet: 425/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shane Bertsch 0.39% 256 201 21
Soren Kjeldsen 3.86% 26 26 41
Stephen Ames 1.46% 68 101 0.50% 50 -0.5 Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Allan 1.39% 72 51 14
Steve Flesch 1.15% 87 41 21
Steven Alker 7.99% 13 13 0.30% 36 -0.3 Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink 6.50% 15 13 14
Stuart Appleby 0.27% 370 201 62
Tag Ridings 0.89% 112 81 5
Thomas Bjorn 2.46% 41 34 2
Thongchai Jaidee 0.71% 141 111 36
Tim O'Neal 0.53% 189 67 50
Tim Petrovic 0.33% 303 201 41
Tommy Gainey 3.80% 26 26 25
Vijay Singh 2.10% 48 31 62
Y.E. Yang 1.30% 77 51 11

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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