Simulation Results: Dick's Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 4.60% 22 20 20
Bernhard Langer 4.22% 24 23 34
Billy Andrade 0.86% 116 111 20
Billy Mayfair 0.22% 455 501 13
Bo Van Pelt 1.20% 83 51 48
Bob Estes 0.89% 112 176 0.30% 34 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Boo Weekley 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 3 2.45 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Jones 0.57% 175 176 64
Brett Quigley 1.14% 88 111 0.20% 59 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Gay 0.77% 130 251 0.40% 59 -0.4 VBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Beckman 0.01% 10000 251 54
Carlos Franco 0.01% 10000 1501 70
Chad Campbell 0.26% 385 301 9
Charlie Wi 1.34% 75 67 43
Chris DiMarco 0.13% 769 351 66
Corey Pavin 0.05% 2000 751 76
David Bransdon 0.70% 143 161 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval 0.37% 270 101 43
Derek Sanders 0.00% 10000 751 78
Dicky Pride 1.14% 88 91 59
Doug Barron 2.41% 41 31 29
Duffy Waldorf 0.12% 833 1001 67
Ernie Els 8.27% 12 8.5 16
Felipe Aguilar 1.35% 74 91 0.30% 16 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Funk 0.01% 10000 1001 62
Gary Hallberg 0.00% 10000 1501 73
Gene Sauers 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 34 -0.1 VBet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Glen Day 0.23% 435 301 43
Gordon Burns 0.05% 2000 1001 16
Greg Chalmers 2.32% 43 41 20
Harrison Frazar 1.14% 88 71 20
Heath Slocum 0.42% 238 151 48
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 73 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Henry 1.65% 61 151 1.00% 41 -1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jason Bohn 0.01% 10000 301 73
Jason Caron 2.78% 36 17 2
Jay Jurecic 0.04% 2500 1501 54
Jeff Maggert 0.20% 500 301 29
Jeff Sluman 0.01% 10000 1001 5
Jerry Kelly 4.26% 23 16 20
Joe Durant 0.82% 122 101 51
John Daly 0.02% 5000 1001 67
John Huston 0.19% 526 301 54
John Rollins 0.27% 370 126 20
John Senden 0.03% 3333 751 70
Ken Duke 0.96% 104 151 0.30% 54 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 1.44% 69 101 0.50% 29 -0.5 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Sutherland 1.83% 55 51 9
Kirk Triplett 0.29% 345 401 20
Mario Tiziani 0.77% 130 101 29
Mark Hensby 2.58% 39 20 70
Mark Walker 0.35% 286 161 34
Mark Wilson 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 48 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matt Gogel 0.97% 103 131 0.20% 20 -0.2 QuinnBet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Allen 0.10% 1000 401 34
Michael Wright 1.44% 69 29 5
Miguel Angel Jimenez 9.34% 11 6.5 20
Neal Lancaster 0.00% 10000 1501 54
Notah Begay 0.13% 769 1001 3
Olin Browne 0.03% 3333 751
Paul Broadhurst 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 43 -0.1 QuinnBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Goydos 1.79% 56 111 0.90% 8 -0.9 QuinnBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 1.54% 65 71 0.10% 9 -0.1 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rob Labritz 0.17% 588 201 16
Robert Karlsson 1.32% 76 67 34
Rocco Mediate 0.41% 244 401 0.20% 67 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Hend 4.44% 23 26 0.60% 41 -0.6 Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Parel 0.99% 101 131 0.20% 34 -0.2 QuinnBet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shane Bertsch 0.87% 115 161 0.30% 9 -0.3 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Kjeldsen 7.38% 14 10 5
Stephen Ames 2.28% 44 36 62
Steve Allan 1.87% 53 31 1
Tag Ridings 2.13% 47 81 0.90% 43 -0.9 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tim O'Neal 1.21% 83 101 0.20% 29 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic 1.29% 78 34 51
Tom Pernice 0.14% 714 751 64
Willie Wood 0.08% 1250 501 13
Y.E. Yang 3.40% 29 23 13

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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