Simulation Results: Dicks Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	6.26%	16	23	2.00%	32	-2	Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Cabrera	0.54%	185	126		32
Bernhard Langer	4.41%	23	41	2.00%	20	-2	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.03%	3333	351		64
Bo Van Pelt	0.93%	108	51		5
Boo Weekley	0.86%	116	51		14
Brett Quigley	0.10%	1000	201		44
Brian Gay	0.34%	294	101		40
Chad Campbell	0.02%	5000	251		37
Charlie Wi	0.60%	167	36		20
Chris DiMarco	0.01%	10000	601		40
Colin Montgomerie	0.23%	435	101		45
Corey Pavin	0.00%	10000	2001		72
Craig Hocknull	0.00%	10000	751		45
Darren Clarke	4.46%	22	23	0.10%	11	-0.1	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon	0.39%	256	101		77
David Duval	0.12%	833	151		45
David Toms	1.07%	93	51		45
Dicky Pride	1.14%	88	67		1
Doug Barron	1.29%	78	46		37
Duffy Waldorf	0.00%	10000	2501		70
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2001		65
Freddie Jacobson	6.26%	16	17	0.40%	5	-0.12	BetMGM: 16/1, 5pl, 1/5
George McNeill	12.96%	7.7	15	6.70%	20	-6.7	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	0.49%	204	81		14
Heath Slocum	0.13%	769	251		32
J.J. Henry	0.05%	2000	501		4
Jason Caron	1.78%	56	41		20
Jay Haas	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Jeff Maggert	0.05%	2000	501		62
Joe Durant	0.07%	1429	201		53
John Daly	0.00%	10000	1001		27
John Rollins	0.14%	714	141		45
John Senden	0.00%	10000	1001		76
K.J. Choi	0.59%	169	61		65
Ken Duke	0.03%	3333	276		37
Ken Tanigawa	0.50%	200	101		62
Kenny Perry	0.09%	1111	226		55
Kirk Triplett	0.02%	5000	401		59
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	1501		72
Mark Hensby	0.38%	263	71		40
Mark Wilson	0.05%	2000	226		65
Mathew Goggin	0.03%	3333	301		11
Matt Gogel	1.21%	83	67		3
Michael Allen	0.01%	10000	1251		53
Michael Block	0.89%	112	29		9
Michael Wright	0.55%	182	101		29
Miguel Angel Jimenez	4.48%	22	21		9
Notah Begay	0.04%	2500	401		59
Olin Browne	0.00%	10000	1501		65
Padraig Harrington	8.33%	12	9		2
Paul Goydos	0.22%	455	151		55
Paul Stankowski	1.07%	93	81		14
Retief Goosen	6.59%	15	13		18
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.41%	244	111		20
Richard Green	3.38%	30	26		8
Robert Karlsson	0.21%	476	91		45
Rocco Mediate	0.01%	10000	501		69
Rod Pampling	0.22%	455	226		40
Rory Sabbatini	0.88%	114	34		20
Ryan Armour	0.09%	1111	151		32
Scott Hend	3.90%	26	10		45
Scott McCarron	0.00%	10000	401		55
Shane Bertsch	0.14%	714	351		59
Stephen Ames	0.81%	123	51		18
Steve Allan	3.04%	33	21		32
Steve Pate	0.00%	10000	1501		75
Steve Stricker	2.18%	46	34		27
Tag Ridings	1.23%	81	67		29
Thongchai Jaidee	1.39%	72	29		11
Tim Herron	0.01%	10000	751		70
Tim O'Neal	0.24%	417	276		5
Tim Petrovic	0.26%	385	226		20
Tom Pernice	0.00%	10000	601		77
Tommy Gainey	6.12%	16	17	0.30%	14	-0.3	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vaughn Taylor	2.64%	38	36		29
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	1001		72
Y.E. Yang	3.05%	33	34	0.10%	45	-0.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.60%	28	29	0.20%	39	-0.2	Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Cabrera	1.14%	88	81		72
Bernhard Langer	3.09%	32	46	0.90%	18	-0.9	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Andrade	0.44%	227	161		57
Bo Van Pelt	1.49%	67	51		5
Boo Weekley	1.52%	66	51		9
Brett Quigley	0.75%	133	101		18
Brian Gay	1.01%	99	67		9
Chad Campbell	0.28%	357	126		39
Charlie Wi	1.33%	75	41		18
Chris DiMarco	0.23%	435	201		14
Colin Montgomerie	0.98%	102	67		49
Corey Pavin	0.06%	1667	701		70
Craig Hocknull	0.06%	1667	226		65
Darren Clarke	3.22%	31	29		2
David Bransdon	1.09%	92	61		39
David Duval	0.70%	143	101		65
David Toms	1.61%	62	51		72
Dicky Pride	1.76%	57	51		1
Doug Barron	1.85%	54	46		29
Duffy Waldorf	0.05%	2000	701		72
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	701		57
Freddie Jacobson	3.63%	28	21		5
George McNeill	5.21%	19	21	0.50%	18	-0.5	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers	1.19%	84	67		9
Heath Slocum	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Henry	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	18	-0.1	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Caron	2.09%	48	34		18
Jay Haas	0.14%	714	301		72
Jeff Maggert	0.51%	196	201		57
Joe Durant	0.55%	182	101		14
John Daly	0.15%	667	301		57
John Rollins	0.70%	143	81		49
John Senden	0.10%	1000	301		65
K.J. Choi	1.24%	81	51		57
Ken Duke	0.46%	217	161		57
Ken Tanigawa	1.19%	84	67		57
Kenny Perry	0.68%	147	111		18
Kirk Triplett	0.40%	250	176		39
Lee Janzen	0.06%	1667	351		29
Mark Hensby	1.05%	95	51		39
Mark Wilson	0.54%	185	111		78
Mathew Goggin	0.44%	227	161		29
Matt Gogel	1.64%	61	51		18
Michael Allen	0.25%	400	351		29
Michael Block	1.63%	61	31		5
Michael Wright	1.26%	79	67		49
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.18%	31	26		29
Notah Begay	0.36%	278	161		39
Olin Browne	0.06%	1667	351		72
Padraig Harrington	4.23%	24	13		2
Paul Goydos	0.87%	115	81		49
Paul Stankowski	1.65%	61	61		29
Retief Goosen	3.76%	27	17		18
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.16%	86	81		18
Richard Green	2.82%	35	31		9
Robert Karlsson	0.84%	119	67		39
Rocco Mediate	0.26%	385	201		65
Rod Pampling	0.82%	122	101		57
Rory Sabbatini	1.49%	67	41		29
Ryan Armour	0.67%	149	101		49
Scott Hend	2.91%	34	15		14
Scott McCarron	0.23%	435	176		70
Shane Bertsch	0.75%	133	161	0.10%	49	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames	1.46%	68	51		9
Steve Allan	2.67%	37	26		14
Steve Pate	0.02%	5000	351		39
Steve Stricker	2.25%	44	41		18
Tag Ridings	1.70%	59	51		29
Thongchai Jaidee	1.85%	54	34		5
Tim Herron	0.28%	357	226		49
Tim O'Neal	0.97%	103	161	0.40%	39	-0.4	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic	0.88%	114	111		39
Tom Pernice	0.30%	333	201		65
Tommy Gainey	3.65%	27	23		2
Vaughn Taylor	2.53%	40	41	0.10%	29	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Woody Austin	0.20%	500	301		72
Y.E. Yang	2.58%	39	41	0.10%	49	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: George McNeill	12.96%	7.7	15	6.70%	20	-2	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Alex Cejka	6.26%	16	23	2.00%	32	-2	Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Bernhard Langer	4.41%	23	41	2.00%	20	-2	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Bernhard Langer	3.09%	32	46	0.90%	18	-1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: George McNeill	5.21%	19	21	0.50%	18	-1	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tim O'Neal	0.97%	103	161	0.40%	39	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alex Cejka	3.60%	28	29	0.20%	39	-1	Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Vaughn Taylor	2.53%	40	41	0.10%	29	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Y.E. Yang	2.58%	39	41	0.10%	49	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.