Simulation Results: Cologuard Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.23%	31	17		38
Angel Cabrera	1.98%	51	36		57
Ben Crane	1.04%	96	36		55
Bernhard Langer	2.41%	41	41		6
Billy Andrade	0.11%	909	1001		57
Billy Mayfair	0.05%	2000	1501		10
Bo Van Pelt	0.94%	106	61		10
Bob Estes	0.07%	1429	401		67
Boo Weekley	0.75%	133	61		47
Brandt Jobe	0.07%	1429	351		57
Brendan Jones	0.15%	667	181		32
Brian Gay	0.10%	1000	501		29
Cameron Percy	1.74%	57	29		21
Chad Campbell	0.10%	1000	301		75
Charlie Wi	0.67%	149	67		38
Chris DiMarco	0.07%	1429	751		63
Darren Clarke	2.23%	45	41		21
David Duval	0.11%	909	401		50
David Frost	0.00%	10000	2501		77
David Toms	0.86%	116	67		15
Dicky Pride	0.69%	145	111		47
Doug Barron	0.85%	118	91		25
Ernie Els	4.33%	23	23		21
Fred Couples	1.91%	52	67	0.40%	32	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	2501		74
Freddie Jacobson	2.65%	38	29		43
George McNeill	3.98%	25	23		61
Greg Chalmers	1.24%	81	46		76
Jason Caron	1.05%	95	71		21
Jeff Maggert	0.12%	833	401		32
Jerry Kelly	1.61%	62	51		77
Joe Durant	0.25%	400	176		73
John Daly	0.00%	10000	1501		29
John Senden	0.00%	10000	2001		63
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.02%	5000	1501		69
K.J. Choi	1.50%	67	61		6
Ken Tanigawa	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	15	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Sutherland	1.11%	90	61		32
Kirk Triplett	0.04%	2500	1001		15
Lee Janzen	0.01%	10000	2001		71
Mario Tiziani	0.17%	588	401		41
Mark Hensby	0.55%	182	111		67
Matt Gogel	0.82%	122	67		50
Michael Allen	0.00%	10000	1501		66
Michael Wright	0.68%	147	101		25
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.48%	40	34		15
Mikael Lundberg	0.04%	2500	71		63
Mike Weir	0.55%	182	181		50
Padraig Harrington	4.48%	22	17		2
Paul Goydos	0.12%	833	351		43
Paul Stankowski	0.85%	118	141	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Retief Goosen	1.79%	56	34		25
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.78%	128	86		61
Richard Green	1.36%	74	71		10
Rob Labritz	0.09%	1111	501		55
Rocco Mediate	0.04%	2500	751		47
Scott McCarron	0.04%	2500	1001		15
Simon Griffiths	0.03%	3333	141		69
Soren Kjeldsen	1.89%	53	51		10
Stephen Ames	1.82%	55	56		50
Steve Allan	1.74%	57	41		10
Steve Flesch	1.29%	78	61		41
Steven Alker	8.01%	12	10		1
Stewart Cink	10.18%	9.8	7		6
Stuart Appleby	0.18%	556	501		50
Tag Ridings	0.99%	101	56		25
Ted Purdy	0.00%	10000	1501		43
Thomas Bjorn	2.81%	36	26		6
Thongchai Jaidee	0.21%	476	301		5
Tim O'Neal	0.46%	217	276	0.10%	29	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic	0.26%	385	251		32
Tom Lehman	0.00%	10000	2501		57
Tom Pernice	0.09%	1111	401		43
Tommy Gainey	2.30%	43	34		3
Vaughn Taylor	0.00%	10000	51		32
Woody Austin	0.02%	5000	2501		71
Y.E. Yang	1.76%	57	71	0.40%	15	-0.4	QuinnBet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	12.69%	7.9	6		3

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.89%	35	23		59
Angel Cabrera	1.93%	52	34		34
Ben Crane	1.44%	69	36		25
Bernhard Langer	2.38%	42	41		4
Billy Andrade	0.34%	294	251		54
Billy Mayfair	0.23%	435	351		7
Bo Van Pelt	1.27%	79	51		1
Bob Estes	0.32%	313	176		68
Boo Weekley	1.18%	85	46		34
Brandt Jobe	0.24%	417	151		54
Brendan Jones	0.44%	227	91		45
Brian Gay	0.36%	278	201		11
Cameron Percy	1.99%	50	34		18
Chad Campbell	0.35%	286	126		77
Charlie Wi	1.07%	93	51		25
Chris DiMarco	0.28%	357	251		68
Darren Clarke	2.28%	44	41		4
David Duval	0.34%	294	176		64
David Frost	0.02%	5000	501		72
David Toms	1.15%	87	51		45
Dicky Pride	1.12%	89	67		59
Doug Barron	1.19%	84	67		34
Ernie Els	3.58%	28	29	0.10%	7	-0.1	BetMGM: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
Fred Couples	1.98%	51	46		54
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	501		72
Freddie Jacobson	2.58%	39	34		45
George McNeill	3.33%	30	26		72
Greg Chalmers	1.62%	62	41		64
Jason Caron	1.45%	69	61		11
Jeff Maggert	0.36%	278	176		45
Jerry Kelly	1.90%	53	46		25
Joe Durant	0.50%	200	101		64
John Daly	0.01%	10000	401		34
John Senden	0.04%	2500	401		34
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.10%	1000	401		77
K.J. Choi	1.68%	60	46		11
Ken Tanigawa	0.75%	133	126		25
Kevin Sutherland	1.43%	70	51		25
Kirk Triplett	0.21%	476	251		18
Lee Janzen	0.08%	1250	401		59
Mario Tiziani	0.48%	208	176		59
Mark Hensby	0.92%	109	81		72
Matt Gogel	1.19%	84	56		25
Michael Allen	0.03%	3333	401		72
Michael Wright	1.11%	90	67		34
Miguel Angel Jimenez	2.46%	41	34		11
Mikael Lundberg	0.21%	476	56		45
Mike Weir	0.85%	118	81		25
Padraig Harrington	3.55%	28	23		7
Paul Goydos	0.38%	263	151		18
Paul Stankowski	1.23%	81	81		34
Retief Goosen	1.98%	51	34		2
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.15%	87	67		45
Richard Green	1.55%	65	51		11
Rob Labritz	0.32%	313	176		45
Rocco Mediate	0.21%	476	251		59
Scott McCarron	0.17%	588	301		34
Simon Griffiths	0.19%	526	101		64
Soren Kjeldsen	1.93%	52	41		45
Stephen Ames	1.96%	51	46		18
Steve Allan	1.96%	51	36		18
Steve Flesch	1.54%	65	41		18
Steven Alker	5.40%	19	17		45
Stewart Cink	6.33%	16	13		11
Stuart Appleby	0.51%	196	201		54
Tag Ridings	1.37%	73	46		54
Ted Purdy	0.05%	2000	351		34
Thomas Bjorn	2.58%	39	34		11
Thongchai Jaidee	0.48%	208	126		2
Tim O'Neal	0.86%	116	101		25
Tim Petrovic	0.54%	185	126		34
Tom Lehman	0.03%	3333	501		68
Tom Pernice	0.30%	333	176		25
Tommy Gainey	2.40%	42	34		4
Vaughn Taylor	0.00%	10000	46		34
Woody Austin	0.13%	769	501		68
Y.E. Yang	1.96%	51	51		7
Zach Johnson	7.34%	14	12		18

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Fred Couples	1.91%	52	67	0.40%	32	-2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Y.E. Yang	1.76%	57	71	0.40%	15	-2	QuinnBet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Paul Stankowski	0.85%	118	141	0.10%	38	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ernie Els	3.58%	28	29	0.10%	7	-3	BetMGM: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.