Simulation Results: Cologuard Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 4.83% 21 15 23
Angel Cabrera 1.44% 69 46 51
Bernhard Langer 7.67% 13 8 12
Billy Andrade 0.82% 122 126 2
Billy Mayfair 0.24% 417 1001 0.10% 78 -0.1 Skybet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Bob Estes 0.53% 189 126 8
Boo Weekley 0.25% 400 301 27
Brett Quigley 1.13% 88 67 31
Brian Gay 1.86% 54 201 1.40% 37 -1.4 BetVictor: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cameron Percy 1.88% 53 71 0.50% 12 -0.5 QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Campbell 0.25% 400 251 72
Charlie Wi 0.61% 164 101 20
Chris DiMarco 0.16% 625 501 62
Cliff Kresge 0.05% 2000 751 62
Corey Pavin 0.07% 1429 751 76
Darren Clarke 2.23% 45 41 3
David Bransdon 0.32% 313 151 69
David Toms 1.20% 83 67 31
Dicky Pride 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 12 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron 2.25% 44 46 0.10% 31 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Duffy Waldorf 0.02% 5000 2501 62
Ernie Els 9.99% 10 9 11
Felipe Aguilar 0.67% 149 81 12
Fred Couples 2.69% 37 61 1.10% 4 3.3 Paddy Power: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddie Jacobson 2.03% 49 67 0.50% 40 -0.5 Paddy Power: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 2.51% 40 41 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harrison Frazar 0.91% 110 67 69
Heath Slocum 0.31% 323 251 4
Hiroyuki Fujita 1.41% 71 67 57
Jason Bohn 0.03% 3333 1001 72
Jason Caron 1.82% 55 41 23
Jeff Maggert 0.05% 2000 1251 40
Jerry Kelly 6.23% 16 13 20
Jesper Parnevik 0.01% 10000 751 62
Joe Durant 0.65% 154 141 8
John Huston 0.09% 1111 751 61
Justin Leonard 2.22% 45 34 1
K.J. Choi 2.93% 34 26
Ken Duke 0.99% 101 71 40
Ken Tanigawa 1.54% 65 67 67
Kevin Sutherland 1.36% 74 81 0.10% 47 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett 0.20% 500 501 40
Kris Blanks 0.25% 400 251 54
Lee Janzen 0.41% 244 601 0.20% 62 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mario Tiziani 0.31% 323 201 12
Mark Hensby 2.45% 41 41 47
Mark Walker 0.10% 1000 401 27
Mark Wilson 0.82% 122 201 0.30% 31 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Gogel 0.51% 196 71 23
Michael Allen 0.06% 1667 2001 69
Michael Muehr 0.07% 1429 1501 31
Michael Wright 0.94% 106 71 12
Mike Balliet 0.00% 10000 3001 77
Olin Browne 0.02% 5000 1501 54
Paul Goydos 1.61% 62 71 0.20% 37 -0.2 Skybet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/5
Paul Stankowski 0.82% 122 126 4
Richard Green 3.49% 29 13 4
Robert Karlsson 1.39% 72 67 51
Rocco Mediate 0.57% 175 81 59
Rod Pampling 1.88% 53 67 0.40% 23 -0.4 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Dunlap 0.20% 500 501 47
Scott McCarron 0.24% 417 501 40
Scott Parel 0.29% 345 251 54
Shane Bertsch 0.58% 172 81 40
Stephen Ames 3.64% 27 12 27
Steve Allan 0.61% 164 111 31
Steve Flesch 1.44% 69 61 12
Stuart Appleby 0.49% 204 151 57
Ted Purdy 0.00% 10000 1001 74
Thomas Bjorn 2.94% 34 21 20
Thongchai Jaidee 2.20% 45 61 0.60% Paddy Power: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Herron 0.17% 588 601 75
Tim O'Neal 1.14% 88 51 12
Tim Petrovic 0.59% 169 81 8
Tom Lehman 0.03% 3333 2001 37
Tom Pernice 0.10% 1000 1501 67
Woody Austin 0.15% 667 401 40
Y.E. Yang 2.55% 39 34 27

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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