Simulation Results: Chubb Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	4.53%	22	16		5
Angel Cabrera	3.94%	25	21		7
Bernhard Langer	4.92%	20	12		32
Billy Andrade	0.47%	213	276	0.10%	63	-0.1	BetVictor: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Mayfair	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bo Van Pelt	0.81%	123	67		7
Boo Weekley	1.25%	80	71		2
Brandt Jobe	0.21%	476	201		46
Brendan Jones	0.91%	110	101		57
Brett Quigley	0.71%	141	251	0.30%	68	-0.3	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Gay	0.73%	137	251	0.30%	57	-0.3	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Percy	3.70%	27	15
Charlie Wi	1.22%	82	67		32
Chris DiMarco	0.12%	833	2501	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Pavin	0.09%	1111	1501		70
Darren Clarke	4.61%	22	17		32
David Duval	0.70%	143	141		59
David Toms	1.36%	74	176	0.80%	1	87.5	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Love	0.17%	588	351		76
Dicky Pride	1.06%	94	201	0.60%	11	-0.6	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.92%	52	41		19
Duffy Waldorf	0.05%	2000	2501		38
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	2501		74
George McNeill	1.52%	66	34		5
Greg Chalmers	1.64%	61	41		46
Harrison Frazar	0.73%	137	111		46
Heath Slocum	0.76%	132	81		29
J.J. Henry	0.57%	175	401	0.30%	54	-0.3	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Bohn	0.04%	2500	1501		23
Jason Caron	1.79%	56	51		38
Jeff Maggert	0.23%	435	301		23
Jerry Kelly	4.79%	21	20		23
Jesper Parnevik	0.04%	2500	501		75
Joe Durant	0.91%	110	301	0.60%	46	-0.6	BetVictor: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Huston	0.14%	714	601		76
John Rollins	0.74%	135	141		78
Justin Leonard	3.34%	30	16		2
K.J. Choi	1.96%	51	51		15
Ken Duke	0.36%	278	226		54
Ken Tanigawa	0.93%	108	131	0.20%	59	-0.2	QuinnBet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.25%	400	1001	0.20%	70	-0.2	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Janzen	0.12%	833	751		63
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	2501		59
Mark Hensby	1.54%	65	46		32
Matt Gogel	1.26%	79	36		15
Michael Muehr	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Wright	1.20%	83	81		2
Miguel Angel Jimenez	5.86%	17	15		42
Olin Browne	0.09%	1111	2001		42
Paul Goydos	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	11	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski	1.43%	70	91	0.30%	23	-0.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.61%	62	61		7
Richard Green	3.34%	30	24		46
Rob Labritz	0.32%	313	276		38
Robert Gamez	0.01%	10000	2501		63
Robert Karlsson	0.78%	128	71		46
Rocco Mediate	0.27%	370	401		23
Rod Pampling	0.66%	152	151		7
Scott McCarron	0.17%	588	751		42
Scott Parel	0.54%	185	176		19
Shane Bertsch	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	19	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Kjeldsen	3.62%	28	23		32
Stephen Ames	2.64%	38	36		19
Steve Allan	2.36%	42	41		15
Steve Flesch	1.84%	54	36		15
Steve Pate	0.02%	5000	1501		70
Stuart Appleby	0.55%	182	226	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings	1.85%	54	21		46
Thomas Bjorn	4.73%	21	15		29
Tim O'Neal	1.25%	80	101	0.30%	68	-0.3	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Petrovic	0.93%	108	131	0.20%	11	-0.2	QuinnBet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Lehman	0.04%	2500	2001		59
Tom Pernice	0.13%	769	601		23
Tommy Gainey	4.85%	21	17		11
Woody Austin	0.10%	1000	1001		42

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	3.26%	31	21		7
Andrew A. Johnson	0.87%	115	251	0.50%	44	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Cabrera	2.98%	34	26		11
Bernhard Langer	3.47%	29	17		34
Billy Andrade	0.83%	120	126		69
Billy Mayfair	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	44	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bo Van Pelt	1.10%	91	51		7
Boo Weekley	1.37%	73	51		23
Brandt Jobe	0.53%	189	101		53
Brendan Jones	1.20%	83	81		72
Brett Quigley	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	34	-0.2	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Gay	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	23	-0.2	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Wi	1.47%	68	51		34
Chris DiMarco	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	59	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Corey Pavin	0.29%	345	351		63
Darren Clarke	3.31%	30	23		1
David Duval	0.97%	103	71		34
David Toms	1.59%	63	91	0.50%	7	-0.5	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Love	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	53	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Dicky Pride	1.37%	73	91	0.30%	23	-0.3	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.82%	55	41		11
Duffy Waldorf	0.24%	417	351		16
Fred Funk	0.09%	1111	351		63
George McNeill	1.68%	60	34		23
Greg Chalmers	1.67%	60	34		63
Harrison Frazar	1.08%	93	67		16
Heath Slocum	1.11%	90	56		23
J.J. Henry	0.96%	104	151	0.30%	23	-0.3	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Bohn	0.21%	476	351		44
Jason Caron	1.89%	53	46		63
Jeff Maggert	0.56%	179	126		34
Jerry Kelly	3.46%	29	26		53
Jesper Parnevik	0.26%	385	201		78
Joe Durant	1.28%	78	111	0.40%	23	-0.4	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
John Huston	0.44%	227	251		53
John Rollins	1.07%	93	81		72
Justin Leonard	2.64%	38	21		3
K.J. Choi	1.84%	54	46		7
Ken Duke	0.66%	152	111		72
Ken Tanigawa	1.24%	81	71		34
Kirk Triplett	0.54%	185	351	0.30%	69	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee Janzen	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	59	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mario Tiziani	0.96%	104	81		75
Mark Calcavecchia	0.06%	1667	401		44
Mark Hensby	1.65%	61	41		53
Mathew Goggin	1.18%	85	81		34
Matt Gogel	1.52%	66	34		11
Michael Muehr	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	34	-0.1	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Wright	1.44%	69	61		1
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.89%	26	21		23
Olin Browne	0.33%	303	351		59
Paul Goydos	0.87%	115	111		16
Paul Stankowski	1.55%	65	61		23
Randy Leen	0.07%	1429	251		77
Ricardo Gonzalez	1.72%	58	46		3
Richard Green	2.72%	37	26		44
Rob Labritz	0.70%	143	126		3
Robert Gamez	0.08%	1250	351		44
Robert Karlsson	1.14%	88	51		16
Rocco Mediate	0.63%	159	176	0.10%	23	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rod Pampling	1.02%	98	91		16
Scott McCarron	0.52%	192	351	0.20%	34	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Parel	0.86%	116	91		3
Shane Bertsch	0.92%	109	101		16
Soren Kjeldsen	2.77%	36	26		44
Stephen Ames	2.32%	43	36		11
Steve Allan	2.18%	46	36		44
Steve Flesch	1.82%	55	36		16
Steve Pate	0.11%	909	351		75
Stuart Appleby	0.98%	102	111	0.10%	44	-0.1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tag Ridings	1.88%	53	26		59
Thomas Bjorn	3.31%	30	21		69
Tim O'Neal	1.44%	69	67		67
Tim Petrovic	1.17%	85	81		11
Tom Lehman	0.21%	476	351		67
Tom Pernice	0.42%	238	251		34
Tommy Gainey	3.33%	30	23		23
Woody Austin	0.35%	286	351	0.10%	53	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: David Toms	1.36%	74	176	0.80%	1	218.75	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Dicky Pride	1.06%	94	201	0.60%	11	-2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joe Durant	0.91%	110	301	0.60%	46	-2	BetVictor: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: David Toms	1.59%	63	91	0.50%	7	-1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Andrew A. Johnson	0.87%	115	251	0.50%	44	-1	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Joe Durant	1.28%	78	111	0.40%	23	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Dicky Pride	1.37%	73	91	0.30%	11	-1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: J.J. Henry	0.96%	104	151	0.30%	63	-1	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kirk Triplett	0.54%	185	351	0.30%	44	-1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.