Simulation Results: Boeing Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Alex Cejka 3.54% 28 29 0.10% 5 0.2625 Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Cabrera 1.85% 54 21 12
Bo Van Pelt 0.75% 133 41 65
Boo Weekley 0.23% 435 151 20
Brad Adamonis 0.01% 10000 1001 76
Brandt Jobe 0.03% 3333 151 7
Brendan Jones 0.05% 2000 351 14
Brian Gay 0.24% 417 401 54
Chad Campbell 0.06% 1667 301 69
Charlie Wi 0.83% 120 101 47
Chris DiMarco 0.01% 10000 601 69
Darren Clarke 2.18% 46 61 0.50% 3 3.1875 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon 0.10% 1000 276 37
David Duval 0.06% 1667 251 7
David Toms 0.33% 303 111 45
Dicky Pride 0.29% 345 151 37
Doug Barron 0.90% 111 56 20
Duffy Waldorf 0.00% 10000 2001 51
Ernie Els 8.61% 12 13 1.00% 3 0.875 Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felipe Aguilar 0.52% 192 151 26
Fred Couples 0.69% 145 61 47
Fred Funk 0.00% 10000 2501 77
Freddie Jacobson 1.86% 54 29 12
Gordon Burns 0.12% 833 351 62
Greg Chalmers 1.58% 63 41 77
Harrison Frazar 0.41% 244 67 24
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.08% 1250 401 54
J.J. Henry 0.62% 161 226 0.20% 26 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Gove 0.00% 10000 501 51
Jeff Maggert 0.04% 2500 401 54
Jerry Kelly 5.20% 19 23 0.90% 24 -0.9 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Huston 0.01% 10000 401 47
John Rollins 0.36% 278 126 45
John Senden 0.00% 10000 1501 73
Justin Leonard 2.50% 40 29 7
K.J. Choi 1.49% 67 46 30
Keith Horne 1.42% 70 71 37
Ken Duke 0.22% 455 276 7
Ken Tanigawa 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 26 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Sutherland 1.61% 62 34 30
Kirk Triplett 0.07% 1429 276 37
Mario Tiziani 0.27% 370 151 30
Mark Hensby 0.82% 122 41 71
Mark Walker 0.08% 1250 301 54
Mark Wilson 0.24% 417 251 26
Matt Gogel 0.46% 217 201 6
Michael Allen 0.01% 10000 501 65
Michael Wright 0.73% 137 29 30
Miguel Angel Jimenez 7.90% 13 11 14
Mike Weir 0.11% 909 251 43
Notah Begay 0.02% 5000 226 47
Paul Goydos 1.32% 76 126 0.50% 20 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Stankowski 0.77% 130 81 30
Ricardo Gonzalez 1.20% 83 46 30
Richard Green 3.56% 28 29 0.10% 62 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Karlsson 0.44% 227 101 62
Rocco Mediate 0.06% 1667 501 54
Rod Pampling 0.93% 108 111 65
Scott Dunlap 0.03% 3333 601 43
Scott McCarron 0.05% 2000 501 65
Scott Parel 0.24% 417 201 59
Scott Verplank 0.00% 10000 1001 59
Shane Bertsch 0.31% 323 201 37
Soren Kjeldsen 6.65% 15 17 0.80% 14 -0.8 Ladbrokes: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Ames 1.64% 61 36 14
Steve Allan 1.68% 60 29 1
Steve Flesch 0.99% 101 51 71
Steve Jones 0.00% 10000 1501 59
Steven Alker 14.14% 7.1 9.5 4.00% 14 -4 Bet365: 7.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink 11.15% 9 7.5 2
Stuart Appleby 0.24% 417 251 30
Tim Herron 0.00% 10000 501 51
Tim O'Neal 0.70% 143 101 37
Tim Petrovic 0.56% 179 81 7
Tom Pernice 0.02% 5000 1001 73
Vijay Singh 0.90% 111 81 20
Woody Austin 0.02% 5000 501 75
Y.E. Yang 2.30% 43 29 14

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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