Simulation Results: Farmers Insurance Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.06%	1667	1501
Aaron Rai	1.61%	62	76	0.30%			Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	1251
Adam Schenk	0.08%	1250	751
Adam Scott	1.98%	51	51
Adam Svensson	0.23%	435	501
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.41%	244	151
Adrien Saddier	0.30%	333	251
Akshay Bhatia	0.80%	125	91
Aldrich Potgieter	0.23%	435	151
Alejandro Tosti	0.04%	2500	601
Alex Noren	1.19%	84	56
Alex Smalley	0.68%	147	101
Andrew Novak	0.69%	145	101
Andrew Putnam	1.08%	93	226	0.60%			Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.45%	222	251	0.10%			Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Smotherman	0.31%	323	201
Beau Hossler	0.36%	278	201
Billy Horschel	0.85%	118	141	0.10%			Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandt Snedeker	0.26%	385	351
Brice Garnett	0.28%	357	601	0.10%			Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brooks Koepka	0.31%	323	67
Cam Davis	0.08%	1250	601
Cameron Young	1.64%	61	26
Camilo Villegas	0.05%	2000	1001
Chad Ramey	0.24%	417	276
Chandler Blanchet	0.15%	667	401
Chandler Phillips	0.38%	263	251
Charley Hoffman	0.02%	5000	651
Chris Gotterup	1.69%	59	31
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.58%	63	91	0.50%			Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.05%	2000	501
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.61%	164	181	0.10%			Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Walker	0.10%	1000	1001
David Ford	0.50%	200	251	0.10%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Lipsky	0.23%	435	501
Davis Chatfield	0.17%	588	601
Davis Riley	0.28%	357	276
Davis Thompson	0.93%	108	71
Denny McCarthy	1.64%	61	91	0.50%			Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	0.52%	192	151
Dylan Wu	0.37%	270	301
Emiliano Grillo	0.53%	189	251	0.10%			Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez	0.22%	455	601	0.10%			Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eric Cole	0.69%	145	121
Erik Van Rooyen	0.21%	476	301
Garrick Higgo	1.14%	88	61
Gary Woodland	0.48%	208	226
Gordon Sargent	0.05%	2000	1251
Hank Lebioda	0.13%	769	601
Haotong Li	0.74%	135	81
Harris English	2.14%	47	41
Henrik Norlander	0.09%	1111	501
Hideki Matsuyama	2.25%	44	29
Hunter Logan	0.00%	10000	2501
Isaiah Salinda	0.19%	526	401
J.J. Spaun	1.77%	56	31
Jackson Suber	0.13%	769	351
Jake Knapp	1.39%	72	46
Jason Day	2.90%	34	31
Jeffrey Kang	0.07%	1429	1001
Jeremy Paul	0.14%	714	551
Jesper Svensson	0.34%	294	151
Jhonattan Vegas	0.38%	263	251
Joe Highsmith	0.10%	1000	601
Joel Dahmen	0.49%	204	226
John Parry	0.60%	167	176
John VanDerLaan	0.12%	833	601
Johnny Keefer	0.92%	109	111
Jordan Smith	1.12%	89	126	0.30%			Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Hastings	0.09%	1111	601
Justin Lower	0.07%	1429	551
Justin Rose	1.22%	82	61
Karl Vilips	0.36%	278	201
Keegan Bradley	1.58%	63	51
Keita Nakajima	0.35%	286	251
Keith Mitchell	0.89%	112	91
Kensei Hirata	0.16%	625	751
Kevin Roy	0.42%	238	251
Kevin Streelman	0.10%	1000	1001
Kevin Yu	0.73%	137	101
Kris Ventura	0.54%	185	176
Kristoffer Reitan	0.16%	625	126
Lanto Griffin	0.22%	455	451
Lee Hodges	0.60%	167	151
Ludvig Aberg	2.00%	50	21
Luke Clanton	0.26%	385	251
Luke List	0.07%	1429	401
Mac Meissner	0.75%	133	111
Mackenzie Hughes	0.44%	227	226
Marcelo Rozo	0.04%	2500	3001
Marco Penge	0.42%	238	61
Marcus Byrd	0.01%	10000	3001
Mark Geddes	0.00%	10000	5001
Mark Hubbard	0.27%	370	301
Matt Kuchar	0.99%	101	226	0.50%			Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty	1.57%	64	61
Matt Wallace	0.80%	125	121
Matthieu Pavon	0.37%	270	401	0.10%			Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	0.32%	313	176
Maverick McNealy	1.65%	61	34
Max Greyserman	0.82%	122	67
Max Homa	1.47%	68	67
Max McGreevy	0.63%	159	111
Michael Brennan	0.37%	270	101
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.66%	152	51
Neal Shipley	0.22%	455	301
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.76%	132	56
Patrick Cantlay	4.24%	24	26	0.40%			QuinnBet: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn	0.34%	294	351	0.10%			Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers	1.25%	80	61
Peter Malnati	0.07%	1429	1501
Pierceson Coody	0.70%	143	67
Pontus Nyholm	0.05%	2000	751
Rafael Campos	0.09%	1111	2001
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.42%	70	51
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.06%	94	91
Ricky Castillo	0.76%	132	126
Rico Hoey	0.54%	185	101
Ryan Gerard	1.58%	63	36
Ryo Hisatsune	0.34%	294	301
Sahith Theegala	1.02%	98	71
Sam Ryder	0.61%	164	251	0.20%			BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	1.20%	83	46
Sami Valimaki	0.68%	147	176	0.10%			Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seamus Power	0.72%	139	176	0.20%			Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	0.42%	238	151
Seungtaek Lee	0.10%	1000	601
Si Woo Kim	3.21%	31	29
Stephan Jaeger	0.64%	156	226	0.20%			Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steven Fisk	0.37%	270	301
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.18%	556	351
Takumi Kanaya	0.66%	152	251	0.30%			Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore	0.53%	189	181
Taylor Pendrith	1.64%	61	41
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.16%	625	401
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.32%	76	91	0.20%			Skybet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom Hoge	0.49%	204	161
Tom Kim	0.67%	149	181	0.10%			Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tony Finau	0.35%	286	126
Vince Whaley	0.58%	172	126
Will Zalatoris	2.02%	50	41
William Mouw	0.34%	294	201
Wyndham Clark	1.50%	67	51
Xander Schauffele	2.62%	38	16
Zach Bauchou	0.25%	400	501	0.10%			10Bet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zecheng Dou	0.18%	556	301

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Andrew Putnam	1.08%	93	226	0.60%			Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.58%	63	91	0.50%			Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Denny McCarthy	1.64%	61	91	0.50%			Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays and FRL plays will be posted on Wednesdays once markets and odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

The simulation results will be updated whenever there is a field update. Check the page updates and/or subscribe to email alerts to see if the simulation results have been updated.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.