Simulation Results: Wyndham Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.01% 10000 2501 72
Aaron Rai 2.05% 49 29 5
Aaron Wise 0.03% 3333 1501 89
Adam Hadwin 0.38% 263 301 76
Adam Schenk 0.14% 714 501 137
Adam Scott 1.77% 56 56 55
Adam Svensson 0.41% 244 151 76
Akshay Bhatia 1.44% 69 41 150
Alex Noren 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 3 1.1 Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley 0.92% 109 81 92
Andrew Novak 0.69% 145 71 102
Andrew Putnam 1.35% 74 101 0.40% 76 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.44% 227 226 130
Austin Duncan 0.06% 1667 2501 141
Austin Eckroat 1.01% 99 91 113
Beau Hossler 0.78% 128 126 15
Ben Griffin 2.14% 47 26 11
Ben Kohles 0.37% 270 151 76
Ben Silverman 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 76 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Thornberry 0.04% 2500 2501 137
Brandt Snedeker 0.19% 526 351 92
Brian Campbell 0.34% 294 201 76
Brice Garnett 0.24% 417 301 76
Bud Cauley 0.81% 123 81 123
Byeong Hun An 0.93% 108 101 102
Cam Davis 0.20% 500 251 44
Cameron Young 0.92% 109 56 1
Camilo Villegas 0.09% 1111 751 113
Carson Young 0.49% 204 176 60
Chad Ramey 0.33% 303 251 130
Chan Kim 0.43% 233 226 113
Chandler Phillips 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 34 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chesson Hadley 0.14% 714 501 38
Chris Kirk 0.93% 108 101 5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.36% 74 51 62
Cristobal Del Solar 0.07% 1429 1001 141
Danny Walker 0.15% 667 501 113
David Ford 0.02% 5000 401 102
David Lipsky 0.36% 278 176 44
David Skinns 0.28% 357 301 55
Davis Riley 0.20% 500 276 92
Davis Thompson 1.22% 82 67 11
Denny McCarthy 1.66% 60 56 11
Doug Ghim 0.65% 154 111 76
Emiliano Grillo 1.14% 88 76 44
Eric Cole 0.64% 156 126 74
Erik Van Rooyen 0.46% 217 151 150
Frankie Capan 0.05% 2000 2501 102
Garrick Higgo 0.41% 244 251 92
Gary Woodland 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 23 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Gordon Sargent 0.11% 909 601 113
Greyson Sigg 0.28% 357 276 143
Harry Hall 1.34% 75 46 15
Harry Higgs 0.21% 476 301 27
Henrik Norlander 0.37% 270 251 62
Hideki Matsuyama 2.41% 41 34 19
Isaiah Salinda 0.37% 270 251 150
J.T. Poston 1.02% 98 56 11
Jackson Koivun 0.70% 143 71 5
Jackson Suber 0.24% 417 251 130
Jacob Bridgeman 0.88% 114 111 38
Jake Knapp 1.42% 70 41 92
Jesper Svensson 0.76% 132 91 123
Jim Herman 0.00% 10000 5001 123
Joe Highsmith 0.38% 263 251 123
Joel Dahmen 0.38% 263 251 15
John Pak 0.10% 1000 751 130
Jordan Spieth 1.49% 67 41 31
Justin Lower 0.19% 526 401 44
Kaito Onishi 0.07% 1429 2501 126
Karl Vilips 0.09% 1111 501 19
Keegan Bradley 2.89% 35 26 102
Keith Mitchell 0.83% 120 81 76
Kevin Kisner 0.09% 1111 501 102
Kevin Roy 0.70% 143 111 102
Kevin Velo 0.06% 1667 751 123
Kevin Yu 0.89% 112 81 102
Kris Ventura 0.43% 233 226 76
Kurt Kitayama 1.64% 61 51 31
Lanto Griffin 0.18% 556 401 23
Lee Hodges 0.73% 137 126 55
Lucas Glover 1.99% 50 41 92
Luke Clanton 0.95% 105 71 67
Luke List 0.23% 435 351 143
Mac Meissner 0.48% 208 226 2
Mark Hubbard 0.49% 204 151 3
Matt Fitzpatrick 2.41% 41 21 8
Matt Kuchar 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 44 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty 0.76% 132 126 8
Matt Wallace 1.10% 91 71 27
Matteo Manassero 0.32% 313 276 76
Matthew Riedel 0.07% 1429 1501 38
Matthieu Pavon 0.21% 476 401 72
Matti Schmid 0.51% 196 126 31
Max Greyserman 1.45% 69 67 76
Max Homa 0.76% 132 81 113
Max McGreevy 0.44% 227 151 34
Michael Kim 1.08% 93 91 62
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.65% 154 71 38
Nate Lashley 0.35% 286 226 150
Nick Dunlap 0.11% 909 501 123
Nick Hardy 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 130 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria 0.51% 196 91 19
Nicolai Hojgaard 1.33% 75 56 55
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.40% 250 176 92
Noah Goodwin 0.27% 370 301 23
Patrick Fishburn 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 8 -0.1 10Bet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 15 -0.1 William Hill: 200/1, 6pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire 0.09% 1111 751 44
Paul Peterson 0.29% 345 401 55
Peter Malnati 0.08% 1250 1001 62
Philip Knowles 0.06% 1667 1501 148
Pierceson Coody 0.77% 130 71 137
Preston Cole 0.00% 10000 5001 143
Quade Cummins 0.41% 244 276 137
Rafael Campos 0.09% 1111 1501 76
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.87% 115 101 34
Rickie Fowler 1.52% 66 51 44
Ricky Castillo 0.40% 250 226 23
Rico Hoey 1.04% 96 81 67
Robert MacIntyre 1.94% 52 34 44
Ryan Fox 0.87% 115 81 113
Ryan Gerard 0.86% 116 51 113
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 2501 130
Ryo Hisatsune 0.57% 175 111 147
Sahith Theegala 0.37% 270 151 143
Sam Ryder 0.43% 233 176 19
Sam Stevens 1.17% 85 67 92
Sami Valimaki 0.33% 303 201 34
Scotty Kennon 0.00% 10000 3001 102
Seamus Power 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 44 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim 2.03% 49 36 76
Stephan Jaeger 0.68% 147 151 102
Stephen Franken 0.00% 10000 4001 102
Steven Fisk 0.31% 323 251 60
Sungjae Im 1.35% 74 56 27
Tain Lee 0.01% 10000 2001 130
Takumi Kanaya 0.49% 204 101 76
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 2001 71
Taylor Moore 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 76 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Thomas Detry 0.85% 118 101 113
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.42% 238 251 67
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.13% 88 71 62
Thriston Lawrence 0.42% 238 176 92
Tom Kim 1.10% 91 71 140
Tony Finau 0.79% 127 91 44
Trevor Cone 0.13% 769 501 44
Trey Mullinax 0.13% 769 601 67
Victor Perez 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 38 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Vince Whaley 0.73% 137 111 74
Webb Simpson 0.42% 238 126 27
Will Chandler 0.05% 2000 1501 149
Will Gordon 0.28% 357 301 123
William Mouw 0.67% 149 126 38
Zac Blair 0.18% 556 401 113
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 276 92

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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