Simulation Results: Valspar Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.19%	526	376		11
Aaron Rai	1.06%	94	67		85
Adam Hadwin	0.43%	233	151		116
Adam Schenk	0.12%	833	651		116
Adam Svensson	0.18%	556	376		108
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.38%	263	151		26
Adrien Saddier	0.25%	400	326		75
Akshay Bhatia	2.95%	34	23
Alejandro Tosti	0.01%	10000	2001		30
Alex Smalley	0.93%	108	71		46
Andrew Novak	0.56%	179	176		55
Andrew Putnam	0.73%	137	251	0.30%	30	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.37%	270	201		94
Austin Smotherman	0.81%	123	56		123
Beau Hossler	0.36%	278	201		108
Ben Griffin	2.07%	48	41		75
Billy Horschel	0.64%	156	101		68
Blades Brown	0.33%	303	126		40
Brandt Snedeker	0.13%	769	651		18
Brian Campbell	0.09%	1111	1001		75
Brice Garnett	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	108	-0.1	Skybet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooks Koepka	1.78%	56	31		18
Bud Cauley	0.93%	108	81		74
Cam Davis	0.03%	3333	1001		131
Chad Ramey	0.50%	200	201		64
Chandler Blanchet	0.39%	256	251		18
Chandler Phillips	0.22%	455	651	0.10%	55	-0.1	Skybet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hoffman	0.03%	3333	1501		129
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	30	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Corey Conners	2.16%	46	36		14
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.44%	227	176		94
Danny Walker	0.09%	1111	1001		18
Danny Willett	0.04%	2500	1501		103
David Ford	0.38%	263	151		46
David Lipsky	0.21%	476	276		2
David Skinns	0.16%	625	651		30
Davis Chatfield	0.11%	909	651		40
Davis Riley	0.11%	909	201		108
Davis Thompson	1.09%	92	67		46
Denny McCarthy	0.76%	132	126		26
Doug Ghim	0.53%	189	151		40
Dylan Wu	0.21%	476	326		26
Emiliano Grillo	0.33%	303	326		7
Eric Cole	0.84%	119	201	0.30%	75	-0.3	Skybet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	0.12%	833	1001		116
Garrick Higgo	0.40%	250	251		123
Gary Woodland	0.35%	286	251		14
Gordon Sargent	0.11%	909	651		108
Greg Koch	0.00%	10000	5001		116
Hank Lebioda	0.11%	909	651		14
Henrik Norlander	0.18%	556	476		68
Isaiah Salinda	0.13%	769	501		46
J.J. Spaun	1.67%	60	36		108
Jackson Suber	0.14%	714	476		94
Jacob Bridgeman	3.43%	29	26		14
Jeffrey Kang	0.05%	2000	2001		133
Jeremy Paul	0.24%	417	651	0.10%	116	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 500/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jesper Svensson	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	85	-0.1	Skybet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jimmy Stanger	0.11%	909	476		30
Joe Highsmith	0.09%	1111	651		103
John Parry	0.58%	172	126		55
John VanDerLaan	0.22%	455	476		46
Johnny Keefer	0.69%	145	151		135
Jordan Smith	0.83%	120	126		3
Jordan Spieth	3.03%	33	34	0.10%	11	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Justin Lower	0.09%	1111	376		55
Justin Thomas	2.22%	45	26		30
Karl Vilips	0.12%	833	476		64
Keegan Bradley	1.77%	56	56		55
Kensei Hirata	0.08%	1250	1251		46
Kevin Roy	0.69%	145	151		73
Kevin Streelman	0.18%	556	501		68
Kevin Yu	0.34%	294	251		30
Kris Ventura	0.44%	227	201		75
Kristoffer Reitan	0.69%	145	101		75
Lee Hodges	0.48%	208	151		18
Lucas Glover	0.81%	123	126		103
Luke Clanton	0.40%	250	126		133
Mac Meissner	0.90%	111	91		108
Mackenzie Hughes	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	55	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marcelo Rozo	0.03%	3333	2001		85
Marco Penge	0.39%	256	126		4
Mark Hubbard	0.31%	323	326		108
Matt Fitzpatrick	4.80%	21	17		1
Matt Kuchar	0.51%	196	151		123
Matt McCarty	1.42%	70	81	0.20%	129	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace	0.63%	159	151		40
Matthieu Pavon	0.35%	286	376	0.10%	11	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	0.72%	139	176	0.20%	40	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Max Greyserman	0.92%	109	81
Max Homa	1.28%	78	101	0.30%	131	-0.3	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max McGreevy	0.72%	139	81		94
Michael Brennan	0.47%	213	151		85
Michael Kim	0.57%	175	176		30
Neal Shipley	0.17%	588	651		75
Nick Dunlap	0.04%	2500	1001		94
Nick Taylor	1.96%	51	51		94
Nicolai Hojgaard	2.21%	45	46		55
Patrick Cantlay	3.15%	32	26		7
Patrick Fishburn	0.19%	526	1001	0.10%	46	-0.1	Skybet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Rodgers	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	40	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire	0.16%	625	651		103
Paul Peterson	0.16%	625	651		85
Paul Waring	0.03%	3333	1501		85
Peter Malnati	0.07%	1429	651		94
Pierceson Coody	0.74%	135	81		55
Pontus Nyholm	0.13%	769	651		85
Rafael Campos	0.05%	2000	1501		123
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.10%	91	71		68
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.64%	156	151		55
Ricky Castillo	0.98%	102	81		46
Rico Hoey	0.51%	196	126		26
Ryo Hisatsune	1.14%	88	36		30
Sahith Theegala	1.78%	56	36		116
Seamus Power	0.71%	141	151		30
Seonghyeon Kim	0.26%	385	251		7
Stephan Jaeger	0.59%	169	126		7
Steven Fisk	0.53%	189	251	0.10%	75	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sungjae Im	0.54%	185	126		4
Takumi Kanaya	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	46	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	0.75%	133	81		123
Taylor Pendrith	1.48%	68	56		116
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.08%	93	126	0.30%	75	-0.3	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Kim	0.50%	200	151		18
Tony Finau	0.60%	167	126		18
Viktor Hovland	4.11%	24	21		85
Vince Whaley	0.42%	238	201		68
Webb Simpson	0.17%	588	376		18
Wyndham Clark	1.26%	79	81		75
Xander Schauffele	7.39%	14	13		4
Zac Blair	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	103	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zach Bauchou	0.36%	278	176		85
Zecheng Dou	0.32%	313	201		75

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.46%	217	151		47
Aaron Rai	1.09%	92	61		7
Adam Hadwin	0.60%	167	101		120
Adam Schenk	0.35%	286	201		81
Adam Svensson	0.39%	256	151		114
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.60%	167	101		17
Adrien Saddier	0.52%	192	151		47
Akshay Bhatia	1.69%	59	36
Alejandro Tosti	0.12%	833	251		47
Alex Smalley	1.02%	98	67		7
Andrew Novak	0.75%	133	101		81
Andrew Putnam	0.88%	114	111		4
Austin Eckroat	0.58%	172	126		131
Austin Smotherman	0.96%	104	51		47
Beau Hossler	0.56%	179	111		66
Ben Griffin	1.41%	71	56		37
Billy Horschel	0.86%	116	81		4
Blades Brown	0.54%	185	91		17
Brandt Snedeker	0.37%	270	201		2
Brian Campbell	0.34%	294	201		81
Brice Garnett	0.37%	270	151		114
Brooks Koepka	1.33%	75	46		47
Bud Cauley	0.89%	112	67		17
Cam Davis	0.22%	455	251		120
Chad Ramey	0.73%	137	101		47
Chandler Blanchet	0.59%	169	126		17
Chandler Phillips	0.52%	192	151		47
Charley Hoffman	0.20%	500	201		131
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.28%	78	67		37
Corey Conners	1.56%	64	46		17
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.68%	147	101		114
Danny Walker	0.32%	313	176		100
Danny Willett	0.28%	357	226		81
David Ford	0.59%	169	91		17
David Lipsky	0.49%	204	151		17
David Skinns	0.39%	256	151		17
Davis Chatfield	0.32%	313	201		17
Davis Riley	0.38%	263	101		120
Davis Thompson	1.16%	86	81		3
Denny McCarthy	0.89%	112	91		37
Doug Ghim	0.61%	164	91		7
Dylan Wu	0.49%	204	151		66
Emiliano Grillo	0.57%	175	126		47
Eric Cole	0.98%	102	101		66
Erik Van Rooyen	0.37%	270	201		81
Garrick Higgo	0.58%	172	101		128
Gary Woodland	0.57%	175	151		37
Gordon Sargent	0.38%	263	151		114
Greg Koch	0.02%	5000	501		120
Hank Lebioda	0.40%	250	201		47
Henrik Norlander	0.44%	227	151		81
Isaiah Salinda	0.35%	286	201		100
J.J. Spaun	1.36%	74	51		128
Jackson Suber	0.42%	238	151		100
Jacob Bridgeman	1.76%	57	36		7
Jeffrey Kang	0.25%	400	226		120
Jeremy Paul	0.50%	200	151		120
Jesper Svensson	0.77%	130	101		17
Jimmy Stanger	0.32%	313	151		47
Joe Highsmith	0.33%	303	201		120
Joel Dahmen	0.66%	152	81		66
John Parry	0.79%	127	81		66
John VanDerLaan	0.56%	179	151		17
Johnny Keefer	0.75%	133	91		135
Jordan Smith	0.88%	114	91		17
Jordan Spieth	1.74%	57	46		17
Justin Lower	0.35%	286	151		47
Justin Thomas	1.38%	72	41		66
Karl Vilips	0.36%	278	151		17
Keegan Bradley	1.34%	75	61		81
Kensei Hirata	0.30%	333	201		47
Kevin Roy	0.86%	116	91		66
Kevin Streelman	0.42%	238	151		100
Kevin Yu	0.60%	167	126		81
Kris Ventura	0.69%	145	101		47
Kristoffer Reitan	0.80%	125	76		100
Lee Hodges	0.72%	139	101		66
Lucas Glover	0.86%	116	91		81
Luke Clanton	0.62%	161	86		131
Luke Guthrie	0.17%	588	251		37
Mac Meissner	0.91%	110	71		100
Mackenzie Hughes	0.91%	110	91		66
Marcelo Rozo	0.20%	500	301		81
Marco Penge	0.62%	161	86		17
Mark Hubbard	0.57%	175	151		81
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.17%	46	34		7
Matt Kuchar	0.75%	133	131		81
Matt McCarty	1.21%	83	71		100
Matt Wallace	0.78%	128	91		81
Matthieu Pavon	0.62%	161	151		37
Matti Schmid	0.90%	111	91		81
Max Homa	1.06%	94	71		131
Max McGreevy	0.90%	111	67		66
Michael Brennan	0.63%	159	91		114
Michael Kim	0.67%	149	101		100
Neal Shipley	0.37%	270	151		66
Nick Dunlap	0.19%	526	151		100
Nick Taylor	1.44%	69	61		66
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.33%	75	51		17
Patrick Cantlay	1.83%	55	46		37
Patrick Fishburn	0.48%	208	151		7
Patrick Rodgers	1.22%	82	71		47
Patton Kizzire	0.41%	244	151		100
Paul Peterson	0.39%	256	201		37
Paul Waring	0.21%	476	251		114
Peter Malnati	0.26%	385	201		100
Pierceson Coody	0.93%	108	71		4
Pontus Nyholm	0.36%	278	201		100
Rafael Campos	0.24%	417	226		81
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.04%	96	61		47
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.69%	145	91		7
Ricky Castillo	1.13%	88	61		7
Rico Hoey	0.68%	147	91		47
Ryo Hisatsune	0.96%	104	51		47
Sahith Theegala	1.27%	79	51		128
Seamus Power	0.80%	125	101		66
Seonghyeon Kim	0.59%	169	126		66
Stephan Jaeger	0.71%	141	91		47
Steven Fisk	0.73%	137	101		100
Sungjae Im	0.76%	132	81		1
Takumi Kanaya	0.68%	147	126		81
Taylor Moore	0.78%	128	71		81
Taylor Pendrith	1.19%	84	71		120
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.14%	88	81		81
Tom Kim	0.78%	128	81		17
Tony Finau	0.72%	139	101		17
Tyler Wilkes	0.08%	1250	401		100
Viktor Hovland	2.25%	44	36		37
Vince Whaley	0.63%	159	126		17
Webb Simpson	0.41%	244	151		7
Wyndham Clark	1.00%	100	67		37
Xander Schauffele	3.02%	33	29		7
Zac Blair	0.70%	143	101		47
Zach Bauchou	0.63%	159	111		17
Zecheng Dou	0.57%	175	111		81

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Max Homa	1.28%	78	101	0.30%	131	-2	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Thorbjorn Olesen	1.08%	93	126	0.30%	75	-2	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Eric Cole	0.84%	119	201	0.30%	75	-2	Skybet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.