Simulation Results: Valspar Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Hadwin 0.71% 141 176 0.10% 107 -0.1 Paddy Power: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Adam Schenk 0.34% 294 176 149
Adam Scott 1.05% 95 51 57
Adam Svensson 0.36% 278 201 79
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.17% 588 501 123
Aldrich Potgieter 0.13% 769 351 113
Alejandro Tosti 0.14% 714 601 123
Alex Smalley 1.25% 80 67 113
Andre Chi 0.00% 10000 4001 151
Andrew Novak 0.72% 139 111 42
Andrew Putnam 0.84% 119 141 0.10% 79 -0.1 William Hill: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.33% 303 301 76
Beau Hossler 0.79% 127 126 70
Ben Griffin 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 79 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ben Kohles 0.30% 333 301 144
Ben Martin 0.13% 769 401 79
Ben Silverman 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 123 -0.1 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Horschel 0.91% 110 81 4
Blades Brown 0.23% 435 751 0.10% 123 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Braden Thornberry 0.03% 3333 2501 70
Brandt Snedeker 0.27% 370 601 0.10% 57 -0.1 Paddy Power: 600/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brian Campbell 0.31% 323 276 134
Brice Garnett 0.33% 303 301 79
Bud Cauley 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 4 1.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Byeong Hun An 1.01% 99 51 16
C.T. Pan 0.32% 313 176 57
Cam Davis 0.44% 227 226 79
Cameron Young 0.87% 115 81 139
Camilo Villegas 0.08% 1250 1001 70
Carson Young 0.31% 323 1001 0.20% 888sport: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chad Ramey 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 144 -0.1 Paddy Power: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chan Kim 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 123 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chandler Phillips 0.47% 213 201 42
Charley Hoffman 0.62% 161 201 0.10% Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Gotterup 0.30% 333 351 107
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.15% 87 67 123
Corey Conners 3.64% 27 36 0.90% 8 -0.9 Betfred: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cristobal Del Solar 0.03% 3333 2501 139
Danny Walker 0.35% 286 111 97
Danny Willett 0.16% 625 601 47
David Lipsky 0.12% 833 2001 0.10% 57 -0.1 Betfred: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Skinns 0.10% 1000 1501 113
Davis Riley 0.23% 435 151 7
Doug Ghim 0.63% 159 126 57
Emiliano Grillo 0.25% 400 351 22
Eric Cole 0.46% 217 176 12
Erik Van Rooyen 0.49% 204
Frankie Capan 0.15% 667 501 144
Gary Woodland 0.41% 244 201 47
Greg Koch 0.00% 10000 5001 97
Greyson Sigg 0.39% 256 151 79
Harry Hall 0.74% 135 101 54
Harry Higgs 0.08% 1250 1001 113
Hayden Buckley 0.03% 3333 2001 97
Henrik Norlander 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 16 -0.1 Skybet: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
J.T. Poston 1.45% 69 71 28
Jackson Suber 0.15% 667 201 139
Jacob Bridgeman 0.98% 102 56 3
Jake Knapp 0.86% 116 81 139
Jeremy Paul 0.26% 385 301 22
Jesper Svensson 0.35% 286 201 64
Jhonattan Vegas 0.61% 164 126 123
Joe Highsmith 0.89% 112 67 22
Joel Dahmen 0.37% 270 151 113
John Pak 0.06% 1667 1001 64
Jordan Spieth 1.53% 65 56 28
Joseph Bramlett 0.41% 244 151 97
Justin Lower 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 107 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Justin Thomas 5.06% 20 21 0.30% 2 0.33 Ladbrokes: 16/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kaito Onishi 0.02% 5000 2501 42
Karl Vilips 0.24% 417 251 123
Keith Mitchell 0.80% 125 51 54
Kevin Kisner 0.01% 10000 3001 70
Kevin Roy 0.42% 238 126 134
Kevin Tway 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 113 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 2001 57
Kevin Yu 0.53% 189 126 12
Kieron Van Wyk 1.11% 90 501 0.90% 79 -0.9 Unibet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kris Ventura 0.30% 333 351 77
Kurt Kitayama 1.00% 100 61 123
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.32% 313 601 0.20% 113 -0.2 Paddy Power: 600/1, 8pl, 1/5
Lanto Griffin 0.19% 526 351 79
Lucas Glover 1.93% 52 61 0.30% 8 0.1125 Paddy Power: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Luke Clanton 1.47% 68 81 0.20% 42 -0.2 Paddy Power: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Luke Donald 0.01% 10000 2501 139
Luke List 0.22% 455 601 0.10% 64 -0.1 Skybet: 600/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mac Meissner 0.54% 185 126 28
Mackenzie Hughes 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 36 -0.3 Paddy Power: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mark Hubbard 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 47 -0.1 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Andersen 0.07% 1429 2001 70
Matt Kuchar 0.72% 139 126 123
Matt McCarty 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 16 -0.1 Paddy Power: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace 0.68% 147 91 79
Matteo Manassero 0.25% 400 351 79
Matthew Riedel 0.10% 1000 1501 144
Matthieu Pavon 0.27% 370 251 47
Matti Schmid 0.47% 213 151 28
Max McGreevy 0.62% 161 111 54
Michael Kim 1.83% 55 34 28
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.33% 303 351 113
Nate Lashley 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 64 -0.1 Skybet: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Neal Shipley 0.30% 333 301 47
Nick Gabrelcik 0.04% 2500 601 107
Nick Hardy 0.20% 500 601 97
Nico Echavarria 0.36% 278 201 16
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.64% 156 81 97
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.65% 154 176 0.10% 134 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 42 -0.1 Paddy Power: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn 0.44% 227 201 28
Patton Kizzire 0.25% 400 401
Paul Peterson 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 97 -0.1 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Paul Waring 0.07% 1429 751
Peter Malnati 0.07% 1429 751 97
Philip Knowles 0.03% 3333 5001 152
Quade Cummins 0.32% 313 251 107
Rafael Campos 0.04% 2500 2501 70
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.66% 152 81 149
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.74% 27 126 3.00% 22 -3 Paddy Power: 110/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ricky Castillo 0.19% 526 251 12
Rico Hoey 0.53% 189 81 97
Rikuya Hoshino 0.19% 526 501 79
Ryan Fox 0.70% 143 101 47
Ryan Gerard 0.49% 204 126 57
Ryo Hisatsune 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 4 3.2666666666667 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sahith Theegala 1.06% 94 91 36
Sam Burns 2.37% 42 29 79
Sam Ryder 0.57% 175 226 0.10% 16 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 64 -0.1 Paddy Power: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sami Valimaki 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 36 -0.1 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Seamus Power 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 8 0.225 Skybet: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka 3.06% 33 17 28
Shane Lowry 3.39% 29 34 0.50% 8 -0.025 Paddy Power: 33/1, 8pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger 1.10% 91 56 36
Steven Fisk 0.33% 303 201 28
Takumi Kanaya 0.30% 333 176 123
Taylor Dickson 0.03% 3333 2001 107
Taylor Moore 1.28% 78 67 79
Thomas Detry 1.07% 93 71 22
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.12% 833 97
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.35% 286 161 36
Thriston Lawrence 0.23% 435 351 144
Tim Widing 0.09% 1111 501 113
Tom Kim 1.27% 79 29 36
Tommy Fleetwood 5.97% 17 12 16
Trevor Cone 0.04% 2500 1501 134
Victor Perez 0.47% 213 151 22
Viktor Hovland 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 1 4.2 Paddy Power: 70/1, 8pl, 1/5
Vince Whaley 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 79 -0.1 Skybet: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Vincent Norrman 0.11% 909 751 134
Webb Simpson 0.28% 357 301 79
Will Chandler 0.08% 1250 2501 69
Will Gordon 0.15% 667 501 79
Will Zalatoris 1.29% 78 41 47
William Mouw 0.15% 667 501 113
Xander Schauffele 3.66% 27 19 12
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 601 79

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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