Simulation Results: U.S. Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 0.77% 130 101 33
Adam Schenk 0.06% 1667 1501 50
Adam Scott 1.10% 91 151 0.40% 12 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Akshay Bhatia 0.69% 145 126 91
Alistair Docherty 0.10% 1000 1001 137
Alvaro Ortiz 0.11% 909 1501 133
Andrea Pavan 0.10% 1000 1251 144
Andrew Novak 0.43% 233 176 42
Austen Truslow 0.01% 10000 5001 117
Ben Griffin 1.04% 96 71 10
Benjamin James 0.06% 1667 501 68
Brady Calkins 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Brian Campbell 0.18% 556 751 133
Brian Harman 0.52% 192 181 59
Brooks Koepka 0.49% 204 81 12
Bryan Lee 0.00% 10000 5001 131
Bryson DeChambeau 6.42% 16 8 91
Bud Cauley 0.57% 175 226 0.10% 80 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Byeong Hun An 0.46% 217 201 80
Cam Davis 0.14% 714 351 64
Cameron Smith 0.52% 192 161 68
Cameron Tankersley 0.00% 10000 2501 124
Cameron Young 0.76% 132 101 4
Carlos Ortiz 0.65% 154 151 4
Chandler Blanchet 0.04% 2500 2501 109
Chase Johnson 0.00% 10000 5001 137
Chris Gotterup 0.29% 345 351 23
Chris Kirk 0.29% 345 401 12
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 12 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa 2.28% 44 29 23
Corey Conners 1.96% 51 56 0.20% 67 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Daniel Berger 0.84% 119 81 46
Davis Riley 0.12% 833 301 129
Davis Thompson 0.49% 204 176 68
Denny McCarthy 0.94% 106 161 0.30% 57 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim 0.21% 476 351 133
Dustin Johnson 0.24% 417 176 91
Edoardo Molinari 0.13% 769 751 68
Emiliano Grillo 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 19 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez 0.09% 1111 1501 109
Eric Cole 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 109 -0.1 Betfred: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.26% 385 351 80
Evan Beck 0.00% 10000 3001 104
Frankie Harris 0.00% 10000 4001 91
Frederic Lacroix 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 117 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Gary Woodland 0.42% 238 251 91
George Duangmanee 0.00% 10000 5001 155
George Kneiser 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Grant Haefner 0.00% 10000 5001 137
Guido Migliozzi 0.20% 500 1001 0.10% 137 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Harris English 1.06% 94 67 59
Harrison Ott 0.00% 10000 5001 124
Hideki Matsuyama 1.42% 70 67 42
J.J. Spaun 0.91% 110 131 0.10% 1 7.5 Bet365: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
J.T. Poston 0.78% 128 181 0.20% 33 -0.2 Spreadex: 180/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jackson Buchanan 0.02% 5000 2001 91
Jackson Koivun 0.04% 2500 401 68
Jacob Bridgeman 0.36% 278 301 91
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.12% 833 1251 91
James Hahn 0.02% 5000 5001 117
James Nicholas 0.01% 10000 4001 61
Jason Day 0.60% 167 126 23
Jhonattan Vegas 0.26% 385 301 46
Jinichiro Kozuma 0.13% 769 751 80
Joakim Lagergren 0.05% 2000 1501 145
Joaquin Niemann 3.17% 32 29 91
Joe Highsmith 0.12% 833 501 124
Joey Herrera 0.01% 10000 5001 117
Johnny Keefer 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 61 -0.1 Priced Up: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jon Rahm 4.57% 22 13 7
Jordan Smith 0.31% 323 301 61
Jordan Spieth 1.16% 86 61 23
Jose Luis Ballester 0.01% 10000 1251 109
Justin Hastings 0.02% 5000 2501 55
Justin Hicks 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Justin Lower 0.16% 625 601 152
Justin Rose 0.38% 263 126 124
Justin Thomas 2.10% 48 41 109
Keegan Bradley 1.78% 56 81 0.60% 33 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 2501 91
Lance Simpson 0.00% 10000 5001 109
Lanto Griffin 0.07% 1429 1251 80
Laurie Canter 0.08% 1250 501 55
Lucas Glover 0.45% 222 226 68
Ludvig Aberg 1.79% 56 23 68
Mackenzie Hughes 0.60% 167 251 0.20% 50 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marc Leishman 0.42% 238 201 38
Mark Hubbard 0.33% 303 451 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mason Howell 0.00% 10000 2501 117
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.68% 147 101 38
Matt McCarty 0.39% 256 251 145
Matt Vogt 0.00% 10000 5001 151
Matt Wallace 0.41% 244 226 23
Matthew Jordan 0.25% 400 601 0.10% 124 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matthieu Pavon 0.13% 769 401 64
Maverick McNealy 0.97% 103 101 37
Max Greyserman 0.71% 141 251 0.30% 23 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 8pl, 1/5
Maxwell Moldovan 0.01% 10000 5001 109
Michael Kim 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 50 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 10pl, 1/5
Michael La Sasso 0.00% 10000 601 91
Min Woo Lee 0.65% 154 126 80
Nick Dunlap 0.06% 1667 1251 104
Nick Taylor 0.63% 159 151 23
Nico Echavarria 0.17% 588 501 117
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.24% 417 401 46
Noah Kent 0.00% 10000 5001 129
Patrick Cantlay 2.91% 34 41 0.50% 68 -0.5 Boyle Sports: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed 0.70% 143 131 23
Phil Mickelson 0.14% 714 301 68
Philip Barbaree 0.01% 10000 5001 66
Preston Summerhays 0.03% 3333 1501 137
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.50% 200 201 46
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.47% 213 226 12
Richard Bland 0.35% 286 401 0.10% 137 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 7pl, 1/5
Riki Kawamoto 0.05% 2000 2501 109
Riley Lewis 0.01% 10000 5001 104
Robert MacIntyre 0.95% 105 101 2
Roberto Diaz 0.04% 2500 3001 137
Rory McIlroy 2.13% 47 15 19
Russell Henley 2.09% 48 61 0.50% 10 0.875 Boyle Sports: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox 0.59% 169 101 19
Ryan Gerard 0.37% 270 201 50
Ryan McCormick 0.07% 1429 3001 50
Sam Bairstow 0.14% 714 601 117
Sam Burns 2.00% 50 67 0.50% 7 1.8666666666667 Bet365: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 23 -0.2 VBet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Vincent 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Scottie Scheffler 10.37% 9.6 4 7
Sepp Straka 1.63% 61 41 104
Shane Lowry 1.70% 59 41 133
Si Woo Kim 1.04% 96 111 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger 0.49% 204 276 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sungjae Im 1.16% 86 111 0.30% 57 -0.3 Bet365: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Takumi Kanaya 0.13% 769 501 91
Taylor Pendrith 0.87% 115 101 38
Thomas Detry 0.53% 189 201 23
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 68 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.10% 1000 1001 12
Tom Hoge 0.45% 222 276 0.10% 68 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Tom Kim 0.45% 222 226 33
Tommy Fleetwood 2.87% 35 36 0.10% 80 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Tony Finau 1.37% 73 101 0.40% 38 -0.4 Bet365: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Trent Phillips 0.09% 1111 2501 0.10% 91 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Trevor Cone 0.04% 2500 2501 42
Trevor Gutschewski 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Tyler Weaver 0.00% 10000 5001 80
Tyrrell Hatton 1.77% 56 61 0.10% 4 0.45 Boyle Sports: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
Victor Perez 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 19 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Viktor Hovland 1.44% 69 56 3
Will Chandler 0.05% 2000 2501 150
Wyndham Clark 0.57% 175 151 68
Xander Schauffele 2.47% 40 23 12
Yuta Sugiura 0.06% 1667 2501 145
Zac Blair 0.05% 2000 2001 104
Zach Bauchou 0.06% 1667 2501 156
Zachery Pollo 0.00% 10000 5001 131

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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