Simulation Results: U.S. Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.79%	127	111		12
Adam Scott	0.62%	161	101		109
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.10%	1000	401		55
Adrien Saddier	0.06%	1667	1001		100
Akshay Bhatia	0.56%	179	151		18
Alejandro Tosti	0.01%	10000	1251		109
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.99%	101	101		24
Alex Noren	1.08%	93	136	0.30%	88	-0.3	William Hill: 125/1, 6pl, 1/4
Alex Smalley	0.44%	227	151		116
Andrew Novak	0.16%	625	251		75
Andrew Putnam	0.30%	333	301		67
Angel Hidalgo	0.02%	5000	1251		55
Ben Griffin	0.99%	101	81		18
Ben James	0.03%	3333	351		24
Ben Kohles	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	24	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 12pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman	0.04%	2500	1001		109
Billy Horschel	0.15%	667	351		75
Brandon Holtz	0.00%	10000	3001		127
Brandon Wu	0.00%	10000	1251		100
Brian Harman	0.41%	244	201		33
Brooks Koepka	0.67%	149	46		127
Bryan Lee	0.00%	10000	2001		100
Bryson DeChambeau	1.49%	67	41		75
Bud Cauley	0.74%	135	111		58
Caleb Surratt	0.03%	3333	751		65
Cameron Smith	0.30%	333	111		88
Cameron Young	2.52%	40	26		44
Carl Yuan	0.03%	3333	1001		116
Carlos Ortiz	0.11%	909	401		88
Chandler Phillips	0.06%	1667	1001		116
Chase Kyes	0.00%	10000	4001		142
Chris Gotterup	1.16%	86	51		44
Chris Kirk	0.17%	588	501		116
Cole Hammer	0.03%	3333	1001		88
Collin Morikawa	1.61%	62	46		18
Cooper Dossey	0.11%	909	1001		133
Corey Conners	0.36%	278	201		24
Daniel Berger	0.22%	455	201		127
David Puig	0.68%	147	141		116
Davis Thompson	0.36%	278	251		127
Dustin Johnson	0.27%	370	201		33
Dylan Wu	0.04%	2500	1501		74
Emiliano Grillo	0.17%	588	501		24
Eric Lee	0.00%	10000	1501		65
Ethan Fang	0.00%	10000	1501		133
Filippo Celli	0.01%	10000	1251		75
Gary Woodland	0.51%	196	131		8
Giuseppe Puebla	0.00%	10000	2001		100
Graeme McDowell	0.02%	5000	1251		142
Greyson Leach	0.01%	10000	2501		154
Gunnlaugur Arni Sveinsson	0.00%	10000	2501		154
Hamilton Coleman	0.00%	10000	3001		133
Harris English	1.47%	68	91	0.40%	75	-0.4	Betfred: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Harry Hall	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	133	-0.1	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Higgs	0.03%	3333	1251		44
Hennie du Plessis	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	142	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 750/1, 10pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama	0.89%	112	81		67
J.B. Holmes	0.00%	10000	2501		116
J.J. Spaun	1.62%	62	61		109
J.T. Poston	0.79%	127	126		5
Jack Schoenberger	0.00%	10000	5001		88
Jackson Herrington	0.00%	10000	2501		116
Jackson Koivun	0.48%	208	151		24
Jackson Ormond	0.00%	10000	3001		153
Jackson Suber	0.23%	435	301		75
Jackson Van Paris	0.03%	3333	1251		63
Jacob Bridgeman	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	40	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jake Knapp	0.72%	139	136		109
Jake Peacock	0.00%	10000	2001		133
Jake Sollon	0.00%	10000	2501		148
James Nicholas	0.03%	3333	1251		67
Jason Day	0.44%	227	161
Jayden Schaper	0.34%	294	301		127
Jimmy Stanger	0.08%	1250	751		100
Joaquin Niemann	0.86%	116	81		8
John Parry	0.17%	588	501		12
Johnny Keefer	0.24%	417	401		40
Jon Rahm	4.66%	21	17		88
Jordan Spieth	0.82%	122	81		58
Justin Rose	1.03%	97	56		12
Justin Thomas	1.40%	71	56		18
Kaito Onishi	0.00%	10000	2001		100
Keegan Bradley	0.66%	152	151		33
Keith Mitchell	0.46%	217	176		5
Kevin Roy	0.07%	1429	751		116
Kristoffer Reitan	0.65%	154	101		88
Kurt Kitayama	1.35%	74	76		55
Laurie Canter	0.05%	2000	751		44
Logan Reilly	0.00%	10000	2501		133
Lucas Herbert	0.26%	385	226		88
Ludvig Aberg	2.92%	34	26		18
Manav Shah	0.00%	10000	2501		100
Marcelo Rozo	0.01%	10000	1501		109
Marek Fleming	0.00%	10000	4001		58
Mason Howell	0.00%	10000	1501		109
Mateo Pulcini	0.00%	10000	5001		133
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.09%	32	23		23
Matt McCarty	0.26%	385	251		142
Matthew Jordan	0.05%	2000	751		75
Matthew Robles	0.00%	10000	3001		150
Matti Schmid	0.15%	667	401		149
Maverick McNealy	1.57%	64	76	0.30%	33	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Max Greyserman	0.22%	455	251		44
Max McGreevy	0.21%	476	351		33
Michael Brennan	0.17%	588	301		44
Michael Kim	0.23%	435	251		44
Miles Russell	0.00%	10000	1251		40
Min Woo Lee	1.14%	88	71		100
Nathan Kimsey	0.23%	435	501		88
Neal Shipley	0.08%	1250	801		67
Nick Hardy	0.01%	10000	1251		142
Nick Taylor	0.38%	263	201		75
Nico Echavarria	0.13%	769	451		58
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.64%	156	111		44
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.03%	3333	1001		44
Padraig Harrington	0.03%	3333	1001		133
Patrick Cantlay	2.23%	45	51	0.30%	88	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 30/1, 12pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed	1.06%	94	51		75
Patrick Rodgers	0.16%	625	501		73
Peter Uihlein	0.02%	5000	1001		58
Pierceson Coody	0.38%	263	301		24
Preston Stout	0.00%	10000	751		116
Rickie Fowler	0.49%	204	161		75
Robbie Higgins	0.00%	10000	2501		152
Robert MacIntyre	0.97%	103	76		40
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.01%	10000	1251		151
Rory McIlroy	5.75%	17	14		33
Russell Henley	2.96%	34	41	0.50%	67	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 12pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.46%	217	161		24
Ryan Gerard	0.66%	152	111		75
Ryder Cowan	0.00%	10000	2501		24
Ryo Hisatsune	0.20%	500	251		44
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.00%	10000	1501		127
Sahith Theegala	0.40%	250	176		12
Sam Burns	2.42%	41	41		2
Sam Stevens	0.17%	588	301		8
Scottie Scheffler	13.03%	7.7	8	0.60%	5	-0.03	Boyle Sports: 4.5/1, 12pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka	0.58%	172	126		100
Shane Lowry	1.13%	88	81		88
Si Woo Kim	2.29%	44	46	0.10%	88	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 12pl, 1/5
Spencer Tibbits	0.00%	10000	3001		63
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.27%	370	226		75
Sungjae Im	0.24%	417	226		44
T.K. Kim	0.00%	10000	2001		3
Taihei Sato	0.04%	2500	1501		116
Taylor Montgomery	0.02%	5000	1251		133
Tom Kim	0.33%	303	201		3
Tommy Fleetwood	4.35%	23	21		12
Tyrrell Hatton	1.18%	85	46		8
Ugo Coussaud	0.09%	1111	1251		116
Vaughn Harber	0.00%	10000	4001		142
Viktor Hovland	1.90%	53	56	0.10%	75	-0.1	BetMGM: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
William Mouw	0.21%	476	401		67
Wyndham Clark	1.34%	75	51		1
Xander Schauffele	2.93%	34	21		12
Zac Blair	0.06%	1667	1001		33

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.06%	94	86		89
Adam Scott	0.73%	137	71		73
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.29%	345	176		31
Adrien Saddier	0.31%	323	276		51
Akshay Bhatia	0.83%	120	101		17
Alejandro Tosti	0.07%	1429	251		140
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.97%	103	71		31
Alex Noren	1.11%	90	91		89
Alex Smalley	0.78%	128	111		121
Andrew Novak	0.37%	270	111		73
Andrew Putnam	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	89	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 6pl, 1/4
Angel Hidalgo	0.18%	556	276		10
Ben Griffin	1.28%	78	86	0.10%	51	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 6pl, 1/4
Ben James	0.16%	625	176		10
Ben Kohles	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	17	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman	0.22%	455	226		89
Billy Horschel	0.49%	204	151		73
Brandon Holtz	0.00%	10000	401		121
Brandon Wu	0.09%	1111	351		140
Brian Harman	0.60%	167	101		10
Brooks Koepka	0.77%	130	46		73
Bryan Lee	0.00%	10000	401		73
Bryson DeChambeau	1.43%	70	46		17
Bud Cauley	1.01%	99	91		51
Caleb Surratt	0.20%	500	176		111
Cameron Smith	0.49%	204	91		111
Cameron Young	1.70%	59	36		51
Carl Yuan	0.14%	714	276		129
Carlos Ortiz	0.36%	278	151		51
Chandler Phillips	0.21%	476	351		89
Chase Kyes	0.00%	10000	401		111
Chris Gotterup	1.06%	94	51		111
Chris Kirk	0.43%	233	161		140
Cole Hammer	0.21%	476	351		73
Collin Morikawa	1.63%	61	67	0.10%	73	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 7pl, 1/5
Cooper Dossey	0.29%	345	201		146
Corey Conners	0.63%	159	126		10
Daniel Berger	0.45%	222	101		129
David Puig	0.94%	106	101		129
Davis Thompson	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	89	-0.1	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dustin Johnson	0.62%	161	131		2
Dylan Wu	0.20%	500	276		73
Emiliano Grillo	0.36%	278	151		73
Eric Lee	0.00%	10000	351		89
Ethan Fang	0.03%	3333	351		89
Filippo Celli	0.09%	1111	351		111
Gary Woodland	0.79%	127	101		3
Giuseppe Puebla	0.00%	10000	426		89
Graeme McDowell	0.12%	833	226		121
Greyson Leach	0.08%	1250	351		146
Gunnlaugur Arni Sveinsson	0.00%	10000	351		155
Hamilton Coleman	0.05%	2000	401		151
Harris English	1.25%	80	71		51
Harry Hall	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	89	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 6pl, 1/4
Harry Higgs	0.15%	667	276		31
Hennie du Plessis	0.41%	244	251		121
Hideki Matsuyama	1.13%	88	71		31
J.B. Holmes	0.01%	10000	401		111
J.J. Spaun	1.29%	78	61		129
J.T. Poston	1.01%	99	101		31
Jack Schoenberger	0.00%	10000	601		73
Jackson Herrington	0.04%	2500	401		111
Jackson Koivun	0.61%	164	91		51
Jackson Ormond	0.00%	10000	401		150
Jackson Suber	0.48%	208	126		89
Jackson Van Paris	0.21%	476	351		17
Jacob Bridgeman	0.90%	111	91		73
Jake Knapp	0.99%	101	91		129
Jake Peacock	0.05%	2000	351		121
Jake Sollon	0.06%	1667	401		153
James Nicholas	0.19%	526	276		31
Jason Day	0.78%	128	126
Jayden Schaper	0.52%	192	126		111
Jimmy Stanger	0.23%	435	201		89
Joaquin Niemann	1.03%	97	81		140
John Parry	0.48%	208	201		31
Johnny Keefer	0.52%	192	176		31
Jon Rahm	2.98%	34	36	0.20%	5	0.19	Ladbrokes: 35/1, 6pl, 1/4
Jordan Spieth	0.99%	101	81		73
Justin Rose	1.24%	81	67		31
Justin Thomas	1.50%	67	61		31
Kaito Onishi	0.04%	2500	351		129
Keegan Bradley	0.82%	122	81		17
Keith Mitchell	0.60%	167	101		17
Kevin Roy	0.31%	323	201		51
Kristoffer Reitan	0.77%	130	71		17
Kurt Kitayama	1.14%	88	67		89
Laurie Canter	0.24%	417	201		51
Logan Reilly	0.00%	10000	351		146
Lucas Herbert	0.47%	213	131		89
Ludvig Aberg	1.90%	53	36		10
Manav Shah	0.02%	5000	351		73
Marcelo Rozo	0.12%	833	351		89
Marek Fleming	0.00%	10000	401		51
Mason Howell	0.03%	3333	276		140
Mateo Pulcini	0.03%	3333	501		89
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.21%	45	46		3
Matt McCarty	0.58%	172	151		51
Matthew Jordan	0.22%	455	201		51
Matthew Robles	0.00%	10000	401		129
Matti Schmid	0.38%	263	151		129
Maverick McNealy	1.33%	75	67		51
Max Greyserman	0.42%	238	126		10
Max McGreevy	0.50%	200	151		5
Michael Brennan	0.46%	217	151		51
Michael Kim	0.45%	222	126		31
Miles Russell	0.06%	1667	351		51
Min Woo Lee	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	89	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 6pl, 1/4
Nathan Kimsey	0.45%	222	161		121
Neal Shipley	0.30%	333	226		31
Nick Hardy	0.13%	769	276		146
Nick Taylor	0.59%	169	101		89
Nico Echavarria	0.37%	270	176		31
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.95%	105	91		31
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.22%	455	226		31
Padraig Harrington	0.13%	769	226		129
Patrick Cantlay	1.92%	52	71	0.50%	89	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 6pl, 1/4
Patrick Reed	1.05%	95	51		51
Patrick Rodgers	0.35%	286	151		51
Peter Uihlein	0.15%	667	201		89
Pierceson Coody	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	51	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Preston Stout	0.02%	5000	226		51
Rickie Fowler	0.63%	159	101		31
Robbie Higgins	0.03%	3333	351		153
Robert MacIntyre	1.19%	84	81		17
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.09%	1111	351		151
Rory McIlroy	2.88%	35	26		10
Russell Henley	2.26%	44	61	0.60%	17	-0.6	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 6pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.78%	128	126		17
Ryan Gerard	0.95%	105	91		73
Ryder Cowan	0.00%	10000	351		5
Ryo Hisatsune	0.47%	213	151		31
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.04%	2500	351		140
Sahith Theegala	0.62%	161	101		51
Sam Burns	1.64%	61	41		31
Sam Stevens	0.36%	278	126		5
Scottie Scheffler	5.10%	20	17		51
Sepp Straka	0.69%	145	91		51
Shane Lowry	1.28%	78	81		73
Si Woo Kim	1.60%	63	46		129
Spencer Tibbits	0.00%	10000	401		5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.59%	169	126		73
Sungjae Im	0.45%	222	101		89
T.K. Kim	0.01%	10000	351		17
Taihei Sato	0.19%	526	351		111
Taylor Montgomery	0.11%	909	276		129
Tom Kim	0.57%	175	111		17
Tommy Fleetwood	2.42%	41	34		17
Tyrrell Hatton	1.07%	93	51		89
Ugo Coussaud	0.32%	313	351		121
Vaughn Harber	0.00%	10000	401		111
Viktor Hovland	1.70%	59	67	0.20%	121	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 6pl, 1/4
William Mouw	0.52%	192	201		17
Wyndham Clark	1.45%	69	71		1
Xander Schauffele	2.27%	44	41		31
Zac Blair	0.30%	333	276		31

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	13.03%	7.7	8	0.60%	5	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 4.5/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Russell Henley	2.96%	34	41	0.50%	67	-2	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Harris English	1.47%	68	91	0.40%	75	-2	Betfred: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
FRL: Russell Henley	2.26%	44	61	0.60%	17	-1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 6pl, 1/4
FRL: Patrick Cantlay	1.92%	52	71	0.50%	89	-1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 6pl, 1/4
FRL: Jon Rahm	2.98%	34	36	0.20%	5	0.95	Ladbrokes: 35/1, 6pl, 1/4
FRL: Viktor Hovland	1.70%	59	67	0.20%	121	-1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 6pl, 1/4
FRL: Ben Kohles	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	17	-1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Collin Morikawa	1.63%	61	67	0.10%	73	-1	BetMGM: 66/1, 7pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.