Simulation Results: Truist Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	1.67%	60	34		24
Akshay Bhatia	1.20%	83	56		37
Aldrich Potgieter	0.10%	1000	111		48
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.40%	250	111		4
Alex Noren	1.50%	67	67		31
Alex Smalley	0.83%	120	67		17
Andrew Novak	0.22%	455	201		24
Andrew Putnam	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	37	-0.1	Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Griffin	2.22%	45	36		63
Brian Campbell	0.05%	2000	1501		52
Brian Harman	0.56%	179	111		31
Bud Cauley	0.37%	270	111		37
Cameron Young	6.10%	16	10		10
Chandler Blanchet	0.07%	1429	601		52
Chris Gotterup	1.61%	62	46		14
Corey Conners	1.25%	80	76		31
Daniel Berger	0.55%	182	101		45
David Lipsky	0.06%	1667	751		24
Denny McCarthy	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	48	-0.1	Skybet: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Gary Woodland	0.87%	115	67		17
Harris English	2.04%	49	46		24
Harry Hall	0.88%	114	91		8
Hideki Matsuyama	2.41%	41	36		71
J.J. Spaun	1.72%	58	46		5
J.T. Poston	0.58%	172	126		24
Jacob Bridgeman	0.81%	123	71		52
Jake Knapp	1.19%	84	46
Jason Day	1.78%	56	56		68
Jhonattan Vegas	0.08%	1250	401		52
Jordan Spieth	1.76%	57	46		52
Justin Rose	1.01%	99	56		45
Justin Thomas	0.96%	104	56		13
Keegan Bradley	1.69%	59	71	0.30%	19	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kristoffer Reitan	0.52%	192	91		1
Kurt Kitayama	1.12%	89	51		19
Lucas Glover	0.23%	435	251		37
Ludvig Aberg	3.64%	27	17		8
Mackenzie Hughes	0.12%	833	276		52
Matt Fitzpatrick	5.23%	19	15		52
Matt McCarty	0.56%	179	91		10
Matt Wallace	0.59%	169	161		37
Maverick McNealy	1.49%	67	41		37
Max Homa	0.70%	143	101		52
Michael Kim	0.43%	233	161		48
Min Woo Lee	1.18%	85	41		14
Nick Taylor	0.71%	141	101		14
Nico Echavarria	0.10%	1000	351		31
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.24%	81	51		2
Patrick Cantlay	2.82%	35	31		10
Patrick Rodgers	0.25%	400	226		24
Pierceson Coody	0.49%	204	111		24
Rickie Fowler	2.37%	42	36		2
Ricky Castillo	0.28%	357	176		60
Robert MacIntyre	1.73%	58	34		60
Rory McIlroy	8.29%	12	7		19
Ryan Fox	0.70%	143	101		67
Ryan Gerard	0.55%	182	67		65
Ryo Hisatsune	0.33%	303	111		45
Sahith Theegala	0.62%	161	91		69
Sam Burns	3.63%	28	36	0.90%	37	-0.9	Skybet: 25/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	0.55%	182	81		70
Sepp Straka	1.63%	61	46		63
Si Woo Kim	3.56%	28	26		65
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.33%	303	111		19
Sungjae Im	0.28%	357	176		5
Taylor Pendrith	0.46%	217	126		37
Tom Hoge	0.07%	1429	501		72
Tommy Fleetwood	5.79%	17	23	1.50%	5	2.25	Ladbrokes: 20/1, 8pl, 1/5
Tony Finau	0.21%	476	226		31
Viktor Hovland	2.37%	42	36		31
Webb Simpson	0.06%	1667	301		48
Xander Schauffele	6.96%	14	11		60

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	1.70%	59	36		72
Akshay Bhatia	1.43%	70	51		14
Aldrich Potgieter	0.44%	227	81		61
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.83%	120	81		8
Alex Noren	1.68%	60	51		32
Alex Smalley	1.22%	82	56		68
Andrew Novak	0.53%	189	101		52
Andrew Putnam	0.89%	112	101		32
Ben Griffin	2.04%	49	36		20
Brian Campbell	0.26%	385	251		43
Brian Harman	0.93%	108	81		61
Bud Cauley	0.77%	130	81		43
Cameron Young	3.69%	27	19		14
Chandler Blanchet	0.33%	303	151		52
Chris Gotterup	1.81%	55	46		43
Corey Conners	1.52%	66	61		8
Daniel Berger	0.89%	112	67		32
David Lipsky	0.30%	333	201		8
Denny McCarthy	1.09%	92	81		43
Gary Woodland	1.26%	79	56		32
Harris English	1.95%	51	41		14
Harry Hall	1.15%	87	67		3
Hideki Matsuyama	2.17%	46	41		43
J.J. Spaun	1.77%	56	51		20
J.T. Poston	0.98%	102	81		52
Jacob Bridgeman	1.15%	87	56		20
Jake Knapp	1.46%	68	46
Jason Day	1.82%	55	51		68
Jhonattan Vegas	0.39%	256	126		14
Jordan Spieth	1.78%	56	41		32
Justin Rose	1.28%	78	46		32
Justin Thomas	1.31%	76	51		8
Keegan Bradley	1.74%	57	56		20
Kristoffer Reitan	0.87%	115	67		3
Kurt Kitayama	1.41%	71	46		43
Lucas Glover	0.60%	167	111		14
Ludvig Aberg	2.76%	36	26		20
Mackenzie Hughes	0.41%	244	111		32
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.48%	29	23		61
Matt McCarty	0.99%	101	67		1
Matt Wallace	0.98%	102	91		32
Maverick McNealy	1.62%	62	41		68
Max Homa	1.06%	94	71		52
Michael Kim	0.80%	125	91		20
Min Woo Lee	1.42%	70	41		43
Nick Taylor	1.17%	85	67		3
Nico Echavarria	0.43%	233	116		52
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.39%	72	46		3
Patrick Cantlay	2.31%	43	41		43
Patrick Rodgers	0.68%	147	101		20
Pierceson Coody	0.90%	111	81		52
Rickie Fowler	2.11%	47	36		61
Ricky Castillo	0.70%	143	101		14
Robert MacIntyre	1.67%	60	36		61
Rory McIlroy	4.46%	22	17		29
Ryan Fox	1.05%	95	81		52
Ryan Gerard	0.93%	108	61		32
Ryo Hisatsune	0.75%	133	81		52
Sahith Theegala	0.98%	102	67		43
Sam Burns	2.71%	37	36		61
Sam Stevens	0.97%	103	61		61
Sepp Straka	1.84%	54	46		3
Si Woo Kim	2.82%	35	34		29
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.71%	141	81		32
Sungjae Im	0.62%	161	101		2
Taylor Pendrith	0.86%	116	81		32
Tom Hoge	0.35%	286	151		29
Tommy Fleetwood	3.66%	27	29	0.20%	8	-0.2	Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tony Finau	0.50%	200	101		8
Viktor Hovland	2.18%	46	41		20
Webb Simpson	0.31%	323	111		68
Xander Schauffele	3.99%	25	21		20

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood	5.79%	17	23	1.50%	5	3	Ladbrokes: 20/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Sam Burns	3.63%	28	36	0.90%	37	-2	Skybet: 25/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Keegan Bradley	1.69%	59	71	0.30%	19	-2	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	3.66%	27	29	0.20%	8	-3	Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.