Simulation Results: Travelers Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.45%	69	46		30
Adam Scott	0.66%	152	67		65
Akshay Bhatia	1.05%	95	71		5
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.73%	137	56		7
Alex Noren	1.11%	90	81		55
Alex Smalley	0.48%	208	101		47
Andrew Novak	0.15%	667	176		30
Ben Griffin	1.49%	67	46		10
Ben James	0.14%	714	176		62
Brandt Snedeker	0.10%	1000	401		38
Brian Campbell	0.01%	10000	1001		47
Brian Harman	0.99%	101	56		25
Bud Cauley	0.55%	182	71		14
Cameron Young	2.64%	38	23		47
Chris Gotterup	1.07%	93	46		30
Collin Morikawa	2.42%	41	31		3
Corey Conners	0.59%	169	101		7
Daniel Berger	0.20%	500	176		25
Denny McCarthy	0.33%	303	226		14
Eric Cole	0.53%	189	101		38
Gary Woodland	0.67%	149	67		71
Harris English	1.76%	57	51		38
Harry Hall	0.57%	175	126		51
Hideki Matsuyama	1.13%	88	81		14
J.J. Spaun	1.11%	90	51		7
J.T. Poston	1.14%	88	67		69
Jackson Suber	0.20%	500	226		30
Jacob Bridgeman	0.78%	128	81		47
Jake Knapp	0.74%	135	67		55
Jason Day	0.48%	208	151		55
Jhonattan Vegas	0.02%	5000	501		51
Jordan Spieth	0.70%	143	61		66
Justin Rose	1.29%	78	51		25
Justin Thomas	2.24%	45	26		14
Keegan Bradley	1.12%	89	46		14
Keith Mitchell	0.56%	179	56		22
Kristoffer Reitan	0.50%	200	67		22
Kurt Kitayama	1.14%	88	51		25
Lucas Glover	0.09%	1111	451		66
Ludvig Aberg	3.94%	25	21		55
Mac Meissner	0.32%	313	201		44
Mark Hubbard	0.06%	1667	601		70
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.21%	31	23		4
Matt McCarty	0.20%	500	226		30
Maverick McNealy	1.76%	57	46		55
Michael Kim	0.24%	417	141		30
Min Woo Lee	1.09%	92	56		62
Nick Taylor	0.38%	263	151		25
Nico Echavarria	0.14%	714	251		30
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.48%	208	101		14
Patrick Cantlay	3.32%	30	29		14
Rickie Fowler	0.64%	156	111		38
Robert MacIntyre	1.27%	79	56		10
Russell Henley	3.22%	31	29		12
Ryan Fox	0.55%	182	101		66
Ryan Gerard	0.59%	169	67		44
Ryo Hisatsune	0.18%	556	126		38
Sahith Theegala	0.53%	189	61		51
Sam Burns	3.83%	26	23		12
Sam Stevens	0.27%	370	101		62
Scottie Scheffler	19.67%	5.1	5.25	0.80%	2	-0.08	Betway: 4/1, 7pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka	0.56%	179	91		72
Shane Lowry	1.25%	80	67		22
Si Woo Kim	2.09%	48	26		44
Sungjae Im	0.33%	303	126		30
Taylor Pendrith	0.31%	323	151		61
Tom Hoge	0.06%	1667	501		38
Tommy Fleetwood	6.54%	15	17	0.70%	14	-0.7	Betway: 16/1, 7pl, 1/5
Tony Finau	0.28%	357	176		55
Viktor Hovland	2.06%	49	41		1
Wyndham Clark	2.21%	45	31		5
Xander Schauffele	5.54%	18	17		51

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.62%	62	46		8
Adam Scott	1.02%	98	56		62
Akshay Bhatia	1.26%	79	51		14
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.21%	83	51		46
Alex Noren	1.47%	68	61		46
Alex Smalley	0.85%	118	71		62
Andrew Novak	0.45%	222	101		20
Ben Griffin	1.81%	55	46		2
Ben James	0.53%	189	101		32
Brandt Snedeker	0.45%	222	151		8
Brian Campbell	0.15%	667	251		32
Brian Harman	1.33%	75	51		14
Bud Cauley	0.83%	120	61		2
Cameron Young	2.44%	41	29		68
Chris Gotterup	1.37%	73	41		62
Collin Morikawa	2.31%	43	34		46
Corey Conners	0.90%	111	81		8
Daniel Berger	0.53%	189	101		56
Denny McCarthy	0.69%	145	101		20
Eric Cole	1.07%	93	67		1
Gary Woodland	1.17%	85	56		46
Harris English	1.79%	56	46		14
Harry Hall	1.01%	99	91		20
Hideki Matsuyama	1.51%	66	56		20
J.J. Spaun	1.34%	75	46		14
J.T. Poston	1.41%	71	56		20
Jackson Suber	0.63%	159	91		32
Jacob Bridgeman	1.17%	85	67		56
Jake Knapp	1.35%	74	56		70
Jason Day	0.94%	106	91		56
Jhonattan Vegas	0.21%	476	151		46
Jordan Spieth	1.06%	94	51		62
Justin Rose	1.47%	68	51		8
Justin Thomas	2.26%	44	34		32
Keegan Bradley	1.39%	72	46		20
Keith Mitchell	0.96%	104	51		32
Kristoffer Reitan	0.91%	110	56		2
Kurt Kitayama	1.48%	68	51		46
Lucas Glover	0.40%	250	151		72
Ludvig Aberg	3.20%	31	29		56
Mac Meissner	0.62%	161	101		56
Mark Hubbard	0.32%	313	161		46
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.62%	38	29		2
Matt McCarty	0.68%	147	101		46
Maverick McNealy	1.97%	51	41		20
Michael Kim	0.65%	154	91		32
Min Woo Lee	1.52%	66	51		32
Nick Taylor	0.88%	114	86		32
Nico Echavarria	0.50%	200	111		2
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.04%	96	67		62
Patrick Cantlay	2.86%	35	34		8
Rickie Fowler	1.06%	94	71		46
Robert MacIntyre	1.74%	57	51		20
Russell Henley	2.67%	37	34		14
Ryan Fox	1.04%	96	71		62
Ryan Gerard	1.06%	94	61		32
Ryo Hisatsune	0.52%	192	91		32
Sahith Theegala	0.85%	118	51		70
Sam Burns	2.79%	36	29		14
Sam Stevens	0.65%	154	67		32
Scottie Scheffler	7.73%	13	15	1.10%	2	0.55	William Hill: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	0.90%	111	71		69
Shane Lowry	1.74%	57	51		32
Si Woo Kim	1.92%	52	34		46
Sungjae Im	0.74%	135	91		32
Taylor Pendrith	0.69%	145	91		20
Tom Hoge	0.33%	303	151		20
Tommy Fleetwood	3.64%	27	26		20
Tony Finau	0.78%	128	91		56
Viktor Hovland	1.94%	52	41		8
Wyndham Clark	1.98%	51	34		32
Xander Schauffele	3.67%	27	26		20

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	19.67%	5.1	5.25	0.80%	2	-0.3	Betway: 4/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood	6.54%	15	17	0.70%	14	-3	Betway: 16/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN:
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	7.73%	13	15	1.10%	2	1.5	William Hill: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.