Simulation Results: Texas Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.06% 1667 1501 140
Adam Schenk 0.23% 435 301 67
Adam Svensson 0.38% 263 251 47
Akshay Bhatia 2.36% 42 23 80
Aldrich Potgieter 0.15% 667 201 47
Alejandro Tosti 0.29% 345 151 12
Alex Smalley 1.09% 92 81 67
Anders Albertson 0.04% 2500 2001 80
Andrew Novak 0.72% 139 71 3
Andrew Putnam 0.85% 118 151 0.20% 94 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.37% 270 251 33
Austen Christiansen 0.00% 10000 2501 80
Beau Hossler 0.69% 145 126 60
Ben Griffin 1.76% 57 56 40
Ben Kohles 0.41% 244 501 0.20% 107 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Martin 0.30% 333 301 52
Ben Silverman 0.27% 370 601 0.10% 67 -0.1 Skybet: 600/1, 8pl, 1/5
Benjamin James 0.03% 3333 301 33
Blaine Hale 0.02% 5000 1001 125
Braden Thornberry 0.06% 1667 2001 94
Brandt Snedeker 0.23% 435 501
Brian Harman 0.72% 139 101 1
Brice Garnett 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 60 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 8pl, 1/5
Bronson Burgoon 0.01% 10000 2501 107
Bud Cauley 1.32% 76 51 5
C.T. Pan 0.37% 270 251
Cameron Young 0.63% 159 111 18
Camilo Villegas 0.10% 1000 1001 56
Carson Young 0.28% 357 301 40
Chad Ramey 0.28% 357 351 5
Chan Kim 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 5 1.2857142857143 Skybet: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chandler Phillips 0.56% 179 226 0.10% 18 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Charley Hoffman 0.55% 182 101 67
Chris Gotterup 0.53% 189 201 94
Chris Kirk 0.60% 167 81 107
Corey Conners 5.80% 17 17 18
Cristobal Del Solar 0.04% 2500 2001 133
Daniel Berger 1.83% 55 34 30
Danny Walker 0.25% 400 251 118
David Lipsky 0.17% 588 751 125
David Skinns 0.13% 769 1001 107
Denny McCarthy 2.79% 36 31 18
Doug Ghim 0.58% 172 126 18
Emiliano Grillo 0.42% 238 201 18
Eric Cole 0.78% 128 101 26
Erik Van Rooyen 0.41% 244 201 62
Francesco Molinari 0.12% 833 1001 40
Frankie Capan 0.15% 667 751 118
Gary Woodland 1.10% 91 51 40
Greyson Sigg 0.39% 256 226 80
Harry Hall 1.00% 100 71 26
Harry Higgs 0.07% 1429 1001 30
Hayden Buckley 0.05% 2000 1001 107
Henrik Norlander 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 12 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hideki Matsuyama 2.47% 40 21 94
Hunter Logan 0.00% 10000 1501 136
Isaiah Salinda 0.66% 152 101 94
J.T. Poston 1.49% 67 51 26
Jackson Suber 0.16% 625 251 143
Jake Knapp 0.67% 149 71 125
Jared Jones 0.00% 10000 2501 125
Jeremy Paul 0.34% 294 251 140
Jesper Svensson 0.52% 192 126 33
Jimmy Walker 0.01% 10000 1501 107
Joel Dahmen 0.53% 189 151 80
John Pak 0.11% 909 751 52
Jordan Spieth 1.88% 53 26 12
Justin Lower 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 94 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Justin Rose 0.72% 139 91 47
Kaito Onishi 0.04% 2500 1501 80
Keegan Bradley 3.22% 31 29 47
Keith Mitchell 1.25% 80 51 12
Kevin Kisner 0.03% 3333 2001 125
Kevin Roy 0.32% 313 301 40
Kevin Velo 0.09% 1111 751 107
Kris Ventura 0.23% 435 401 67
Kurt Kitayama 0.91% 110 81 133
Lanto Griffin 0.26% 385 401 40
Lee Hodges 1.52% 66 61 94
Ludvig Aberg 3.29% 30 13 80
Luke List 0.29% 345 401 80
Mac Meissner 0.72% 139 101 52
Mark Hubbard 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 80 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Martin Laird 0.11% 909 501 67
Mason Andersen 0.11% 909 1501 80
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.90% 111 71 125
Matt Kuchar 0.78% 128 126 18
Matt Wallace 0.70% 143 141 26
Matteo Manassero 0.36% 278 276 80
Matthew Riedel 0.09% 1111 751 52
Matti Schmid 0.56% 179 126 136
Maverick McNealy 1.45% 69 46 3
Max Homa 0.38% 263 151 118
Max McGreevy 0.57% 175 126 118
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.43% 233 151 67
Nate Lashley 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 12 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Hardy 0.27% 370 401 107
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.52% 192 151 118
Noah Goodwin 0.24% 417 501 56
Norman Xiong 0.12% 833 601
Padraig Harrington 0.12% 833 751 118
Patrick Cantlay 5.10% 20 19 33
Patrick Fishburn 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 5 0.92857142857143 Skybet: 175/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Pockels 0.00% 10000 2501 136
Patrick Rodgers 1.17% 85 81 56
Patton Kizzire 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 65 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Peterson 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 94 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Paul Waring 0.08% 1250 1001 140
Peter Malnati 0.09% 1111 1001 64
Philip Knowles 0.04% 2500 2501 107
Preston Summerhays 0.07% 1429 401 118
Quade Cummins 0.37% 270 251 33
Rafael Campos 0.08% 1250 2501 47
Rickie Fowler 1.12% 89 71 30
Ricky Castillo 0.32% 313 201 67
Rico Hoey 0.89% 112 71 67
Rikuya Hoshino 0.21% 476 501 67
Ryan Fox 0.94% 106 81 133
Ryan Gerard 0.76% 132 71 2
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 2001 107
Ryo Hisatsune 0.62% 161 126 5
Sam Burns 1.94% 52 51 94
Sam Ryder 0.60% 167 131 40
Sam Stevens 1.09% 92 51 94
Sami Valimaki 0.42% 238 126 12
Seamus Power 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 125 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim 1.66% 60 41 94
Steven Fisk 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 33 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takumi Kanaya 0.29% 345 251 67
Taylor Dickson 0.08% 1250 1001 65
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.09% 1111 751 80
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 5 0.64285714285714 Skybet: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.11% 909 501 67
Tim Widing 0.11% 909 501 80
Tom Hoge 0.75% 133 81 5
Tom Kim 1.34% 75 41 125
Tommy Fleetwood 6.19% 16 17 0.30% 62 -0.3 Paddy Power: 16/1, 8pl, 1/5
Tony Finau 2.36% 42 41 56
Trevor Cone 0.08% 1250 1001 94
Trey Mullinax 0.30% 333 201 67
Victor Perez 0.96% 104 101 107
Vince Covello 0.01% 10000 3001 144
Vince Whaley 0.44% 227 251 94
Webb Simpson 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 80 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Will Chandler 0.07% 1429 1501 136
William Mouw 0.13% 769 501 33
Zach Johnson 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 18 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 8pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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