Simulation Results: Texas Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.29%	345	181		30
Adam Schenk	0.09%	1111	601		39
Adam Svensson	0.20%	500	301		39
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.75%	133	91		49
Adrien Saddier	0.35%	286	201		114
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	601		71
Alex Noren	1.98%	51	34		30
Alex Smalley	0.98%	102	71		14
Andrew Novak	0.67%	149	91		14
Andrew Putnam	0.87%	115	131	0.10%	5	0.95	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.42%	238	176		10
Austin Smotherman	0.47%	213	86		36
Austin Wylie	0.00%	10000	4001		130
Beau Hossler	0.48%	208	151		49
Billy Horschel	0.43%	233	126		36
Brandt Snedeker	0.23%	435	351		39
Brendon Todd	0.02%	5000	1001		87
Brian Harman	1.00%	100	67		39
Brice Garnett	0.10%	1000	601		129
Bronson Burgoon	0.49%	204	176		54
Bud Cauley	0.59%	169	111		21
Camilo Villegas	0.04%	2500	751		104
Chad Ramey	0.65%	154	126		39
Chandler Blanchet	0.36%	278	226		71
Chandler Phillips	0.21%	476	426		8
Charley Hoffman	0.05%	2000	501		87
Charlie Crockett	0.01%	10000	1251		87
Chris Kirk	1.00%	100	101		36
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	39	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.08%	1250	501		49
Collin Morikawa	3.88%	26	21
Daniel Berger	1.04%	96	41
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.37%	270	226		87
Danny Walker	0.13%	769	501		68
David Ford	0.31%	323	201		59
David Lipsky	0.27%	370	201
Davis Chatfield	0.14%	714	501		71
Davis Thompson	0.97%	103	91		14
Denny McCarthy	1.67%	60	41		71
Doug Ghim	0.61%	164	151		30
Dylan Wu	0.23%	435	301		87
Emiliano Grillo	0.48%	208	201		104
Eric Cole	0.72%	139	111		14
Erik Van Rooyen	0.14%	714	351		59
Garrick Higgo	0.30%	333	251		110
Gordon Sargent	0.09%	1111	751		54
Hank Lebioda	0.20%	500	351		54
Haotong Li	0.48%	208	126		87
Hideki Matsuyama	3.14%	32	23		21
J.J. Spaun	1.27%	79	46		1
J.T. Poston	0.88%	114	91		21
Jackson Suber	0.23%	435	401		121
Jeffrey Kang	0.07%	1429	1501		65
Jesper Svensson	0.37%	270	201		127
Jhonattan Vegas	0.35%	286	161		110
Jimmy Stanger	0.24%	417	501		71
Jimmy Walker	0.01%	10000	1501		110
Joe Highsmith	0.08%	1250	601		65
Joel Dahmen	0.28%	357	201		121
John Parry	0.70%	143	141		14
John VanDerLaan	0.20%	500	351		71
Johnny Keefer	0.81%	123	41		114
Jordan Smith	1.32%	76	71		87
Jordan Spieth	3.76%	27	19		63
Justin Lower	0.07%	1429	651		87
Karl Vilips	0.18%	556	201		71
Keith Mitchell	1.88%	53	34		71
Kensei Hirata	0.11%	909	651		71
Kevin Roy	0.56%	179	176		30
Kevin Streelman	0.17%	588	501		39
Kevin Yu	0.38%	263	201		7
Kris Ventura	0.38%	263	201		87
Kristoffer Reitan	0.46%	217	126		10
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.02%	5000	1001		132
Lee Hodges	0.63%	159	151		71
Lucas Glover	0.33%	303	226		71
Ludvig Aberg	3.61%	28	15		5
Luke Clanton	0.12%	833	351		70
Mac Meissner	0.82%	122	81		30
Mackenzie Hughes	0.62%	161	111		87
Marcelo Rozo	0.04%	2500	2001		87
Marco Penge	0.73%	137	61		21
Mark Hubbard	0.29%	345	301		65
Matt Kuchar	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	104	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty	0.66%	152	126		39
Matt Wallace	0.98%	102	91		2
Matthieu Pavon	0.41%	244	251		121
Maverick McNealy	2.45%	41	29		21
Max Homa	0.74%	135	111		71
Max McGreevy	0.77%	130	81		71
Michael Kim	0.55%	182	151		2
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.77%	56	34		87
Neal Shipley	0.16%	625	501		87
Nick Dunlap	0.07%	1429	601		110
Nick Hardy	0.07%	1429	601		104
Nick Taylor	1.37%	73	67		28
Patrick Fishburn	0.24%	417	351		121
Patrick Rodgers	0.99%	101	101		131
Patton Kizzire	0.13%	769	451		114
Paul Waring	0.10%	1000	751		30
Peter Malnati	0.05%	2000	451		63
Pontus Nyholm	0.23%	435	251		71
Rafael Campos	0.03%	3333	1501		114
Rickie Fowler	3.49%	29	29		104
Ricky Castillo	0.93%	108	71
Rico Hoey	0.96%	104	61		39
Robert MacIntyre	3.12%	32	21		2
Russell Henley	5.43%	18	17		71
Ryan Palmer	0.00%	10000	2501		114
Ryo Hisatsune	0.86%	116	36		8
Sam Ryder	0.24%	417	251		21
Sami Valimaki	0.45%	222	176		14
Seamus Power	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	87	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	0.36%	278	126		21
Sepp Straka	2.06%	49	26		87
Si Woo Kim	2.68%	37	21		10
Stephan Jaeger	0.88%	114	91		59
Steven Fisk	0.54%	185	201		54
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.70%	143	56		14
Takumi Kanaya	0.48%	208	276	0.10%	62	-0.1	William Hill: 250/1, 6pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	0.36%	278	151		39
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.71%	58	51		49
Tom Hoge	0.26%	385	201		71
Tom Kim	0.73%	137	101		87
Tommy Fleetwood	5.20%	19	17		10
Tony Finau	0.78%	128	91		49
Vince Whaley	0.60%	167	151		54
Webb Simpson	0.39%	256	226		71
Will Zalatoris	0.74%	135	76		68
William Mouw	0.75%	133	101		71
Zach Bauchou	0.29%	345	301		28
Zecheng Dou	0.54%	185	126		121

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.60%	167	126		45
Adam Schenk	0.32%	313	201		17
Adam Svensson	0.45%	222	151		17
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.88%	114	81		31
Adrien Saddier	0.61%	164	161		123
Alejandro Tosti	0.23%	435	201		79
Alex Noren	1.32%	76	56		45
Alex Smalley	0.98%	102	76		17
Andrew Novak	0.78%	128	76		17
Andrew Putnam	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	2	0.85	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Eckroat	0.68%	147	111		17
Austin Smotherman	0.71%	141	81		17
Austin Wylie	0.01%	10000	1001		132
Beau Hossler	0.77%	130	101		59
Billy Horschel	0.74%	135	101		59
Brandt Snedeker	0.56%	179	161		59
Brendon Todd	0.20%	500	326		79
Brian Harman	1.02%	98	81		79
Brice Garnett	0.34%	294	226		123
Bronson Burgoon	0.71%	141	101		123
Bud Cauley	0.76%	132	91		31
Camilo Villegas	0.25%	400	251		59
Carson Young	0.72%	139	176	0.20%	59	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Ramey	0.84%	119	111		79
Chan Kim	0.56%	179	111		79
Chandler Blanchet	0.57%	175	126		45
Chandler Phillips	0.44%	227	181		79
Charley Hoffman	0.21%	476	201		59
Charlie Crockett	0.13%	769	401		112
Chris Kirk	1.12%	89	91		45
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.19%	84	76		59
Christo Lamprecht	0.33%	303	201		8
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.60%	167	126		45
Danny Walker	0.40%	250	176		31
David Ford	0.59%	169	111		17
Davis Chatfield	0.43%	233	201		79
Davis Thompson	0.99%	101	76		2
Denny McCarthy	1.40%	71	67		102
Doug Ghim	0.73%	137	101		31
Dylan Wu	0.52%	192	126		59
Emiliano Grillo	0.70%	143	111		59
Eric Cole	0.95%	105	91		8
Erik Van Rooyen	0.47%	213	181		79
Frankie Capan	0.18%	556	226		112
Garrick Higgo	0.57%	175	151		79
Gordon Sargent	0.32%	313	301		79
Hank Lebioda	0.52%	192	176		79
Haotong Li	0.80%	125	91		79
Hideki Matsuyama	1.81%	55	41		45
J.J. Spaun	1.22%	82	67		31
J.T. Poston	0.93%	108	71		79
Jackson Suber	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	129	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Kang	0.29%	345	251		8
Jesper Svensson	0.63%	159	111		102
Jhonattan Vegas	0.66%	152	101		102
Jimmy Stanger	0.54%	185	226	0.10%	59	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jimmy Walker	0.14%	714	401		31
Joe Highsmith	0.30%	333	176		31
Joel Dahmen	0.55%	182	101		102
John Parry	0.92%	109	101		2
John VanDerLaan	0.48%	208	201		112
Johnny Keefer	0.94%	106	51		127
Jordan Smith	1.22%	82	81		127
Jordan Spieth	2.09%	48	41		59
Justin Lower	0.33%	303	201		112
Karl Vilips	0.51%	196	141		17
Keith Mitchell	1.42%	70	51		112
Kensei Hirata	0.36%	278	251		45
Kevin Roy	0.82%	122	131	0.10%	8	-0.1	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Streelman	0.40%	250	176		17
Kevin Yu	0.74%	135	126		31
Kris Ventura	0.58%	172	111		102
Kristoffer Reitan	0.75%	133	91		45
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.19%	526	276		129
Lanto Griffin	0.48%	208	111		45
Lee Hodges	0.85%	118	111		59
Lucas Glover	0.64%	156	141		79
Ludvig Aberg	2.08%	48	36		8
Luke Clanton	0.38%	263	151		79
Mac Meissner	0.88%	114	81		59
Mackenzie Hughes	0.84%	119	91		102
Marcelo Rozo	0.23%	435	351		112
Marco Penge	0.83%	120	61		17
Mark Hubbard	0.58%	172	161		1
Matt Kuchar	0.82%	122	101		102
Matt McCarty	0.87%	115	101		112
Matt Wallace	1.03%	97	81		59
Matthieu Pavon	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	112	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maverick McNealy	1.52%	66	46		8
Max Homa	0.83%	120	91		31
Max McGreevy	0.89%	112	81		59
Michael Kim	0.67%	149	101		79
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.34%	75	41		45
Neal Shipley	0.38%	263	201		79
Nick Dunlap	0.29%	345	201		112
Nick Hardy	0.31%	323	201		102
Nick Taylor	1.27%	79	81		45
Patrick Fishburn	0.58%	172	176		59
Patrick Rodgers	0.97%	103	81		129
Patton Kizzire	0.41%	244	176		102
Paul Waring	0.39%	256	226		79
Peter Malnati	0.30%	333	181		31
Pontus Nyholm	0.55%	182	151		17
Rafael Campos	0.25%	400	301		79
Rickie Fowler	1.90%	53	46		45
Rico Hoey	0.96%	104	71		45
Robert MacIntyre	1.93%	52	46		2
Russell Henley	2.38%	42	46	0.20%	79	-0.2	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Palmer	0.11%	909	401		123
Ryo Hisatsune	0.91%	110	51		17
Sam Ryder	0.48%	208	126		8
Sami Valimaki	0.67%	149	126		31
Seamus Power	0.80%	125	101		59
Seonghyeon Kim	0.63%	159	91		17
Sepp Straka	1.60%	63	51		79
Si Woo Kim	1.55%	65	41		45
Stephan Jaeger	1.05%	95	81		79
Steven Fisk	0.79%	127	141	0.10%	2	1.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.82%	122	56		31
Takumi Kanaya	0.71%	141	151		59
Taylor Moore	0.61%	164	91		31
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.31%	76	61		31
Tom Hoge	0.64%	156	141		59
Tom Kim	0.91%	110	91		112
Tommy Fleetwood	2.29%	44	34		8
Tony Finau	0.91%	110	67		2
Vince Whaley	0.80%	125	101		59
Webb Simpson	0.59%	169	141		102
Will Zalatoris	0.84%	119	71		8
William Mouw	0.83%	120	91		79
Zach Bauchou	0.55%	182	141		17
Zecheng Dou	0.75%	133	101		112

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	39	-2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Andrew Putnam	0.87%	115	131	0.10%	5	19	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Matt Kuchar	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	104	-2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
FRL: Russell Henley	2.38%	42	46	0.20%	79	-1	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Carson Young	0.72%	139	176	0.20%	59	-1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Andrew Putnam	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	2	8.5	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kevin Roy	0.82%	122	131	0.10%	8	-1	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Steven Fisk	0.79%	127	141	0.10%	2	11	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matthieu Pavon	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	112	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.