Simulation Results: St Jude Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 1.78% 56 36 22
Akshay Bhatia 1.13% 88 71 6
Aldrich Potgieter 0.15% 667 201 59
Andrew Novak 0.47% 213 126 6
Ben Griffin 1.76% 57 51 9
Brian Campbell 0.31% 323 301 64
Brian Harman 1.08% 93 101 0.10% 22 -0.1 Priced Up: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Bud Cauley 0.52% 192 176 14
Cam Davis 0.16% 625 501 50
Cameron Young 1.31% 76 41 5
Chris Gotterup 0.99% 101 56 54
Chris Kirk 0.96% 104 91 9
Collin Morikawa 2.33% 43 31 22
Corey Conners 2.42% 41 46 0.30% 50 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Daniel Berger 1.26% 79 51 68
Davis Riley 0.16% 625 501 32
Denny McCarthy 1.92% 52 81 0.70% 32 -0.7 Priced Up: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Emiliano Grillo 0.82% 122 176 0.30% 50 -0.3 Priced Up: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.34% 294 251 62
Harris English 1.78% 56 41 48
Harry Hall 1.10% 91 81 22
Hideki Matsuyama 3.44% 29 36 0.70% 17 -0.7 Bresbet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Spaun 1.41% 71 71 2
J.T. Poston 1.12% 89 81 22
Jacob Bridgeman 0.61% 164 161 17
Jake Knapp 0.78% 128 101 62
Jason Day 1.39% 72 101 0.40% 56 -0.4 Priced Up: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jhonattan Vegas 0.31% 323 201 14
Joe Highsmith 0.23% 435 501 67
Jordan Spieth 1.54% 65 56 38
Justin Rose 0.79% 127 91 1
Justin Thomas 2.92% 34 36 0.10% 28 -0.1 Priced Up: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Keegan Bradley 1.92% 52 61 0.30% 44 -0.3 Priced Up: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kevin Yu 0.58% 172 151 32
Kurt Kitayama 1.17% 85 91 0.10% 9 -0.1 Priced Up: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lucas Glover 1.37% 73 91 0.30% 44 -0.3 Bresbet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ludvig Aberg 2.06% 49 31 9
Mackenzie Hughes 0.37% 270 201 56
Matt Fitzpatrick 2.72% 37 26 32
Matti Schmid 0.39% 256 201 38
Maverick McNealy 1.46% 68 61 28
Max Greyserman 0.92% 109 101 32
Michael Kim 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 59 -0.1 Priced Up: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Min Woo Lee 0.65% 154 151 68
Nick Taylor 0.73% 137 111 44
Nico Echavarria 0.47% 213 151 38
Patrick Cantlay 2.64% 38 41 0.20% 9 -0.2 Priced Up: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 0.53% 189 226 0.10% 38 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rickie Fowler 1.32% 76 126 0.50% 6 -0.5 Priced Up: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Robert MacIntyre 1.62% 62 61 38
Russell Henley 3.82% 26 31 0.60% 17 -0.6 Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox 0.50% 200 151 50
Ryan Gerard 0.47% 213 101 44
Sam Burns 2.42% 41 41 28
Sam Stevens 0.77% 130 126 54
Scottie Scheffler 13.25% 7.5 4.33 3
Sepp Straka 1.43% 70 41 17
Shane Lowry 1.34% 75 71 59
Si Woo Kim 1.49% 67 101 0.50% 14 -0.5 Priced Up: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sungjae Im 1.37% 73 101 0.40% 17 -0.4 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Pendrith 0.75% 133 126 28
Thomas Detry 0.44% 227 151 38
Tom Hoge 0.15% 667 501 64
Tommy Fleetwood 3.87% 26 26 3
Tony Finau 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 64 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Viktor Hovland 2.45% 41 31 32
Wyndham Clark 1.81% 55 51 56
Xander Schauffele 3.45% 29 19 22

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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