Simulation Results: Sony Open in Hawaii

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.02%	5000	1001		99
Aaron Rai	1.64%	61	41		50
Adam Schenk	0.28%	357	276		115
Adam Scott	1.44%	69	51		40
Adam Svensson	0.21%	476	176		40
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.39%	256	181		24
Adrien Saddier	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	93	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alejandro Tosti	0.13%	769	301		99
Alex Smalley	0.87%	115	91		40
Anson Cabello	0.01%	10000	5001		115
Austin Eckroat	0.75%	133	141		75
Austin Smotherman	0.14%	714	276		75
Beau Hossler	0.42%	238	176		75
Ben Griffin	3.18%	31	21		19
Billy Horschel	1.14%	88	71		74
Brian Campbell	0.20%	500	301		83
Brian Harman	1.50%	67	46		61
Brice Garnett	0.41%	244	276		31
Bud Cauley	0.48%	208	141		24
Cam Davis	0.16%	625	276		93
Chad Ramey	0.29%	345	226		71
Chandler Blanchet	0.29%	345	126		112
Chandler Phillips	0.39%	256	251		19
Chris Gotterup	1.22%	82	51		1
Chris Kirk	2.06%	49	46		83
Christo Lamprecht	0.19%	526	351		119
Collin Morikawa	2.34%	43	23		75
Corey Conners	2.31%	43	31		24
Corey Kozuma	0.00%	10000	5001		104
Daniel Berger	1.30%	77	67		6
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.22%	82	176	0.70%	19	-0.7	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Danny Walker	0.12%	833	1001		93
David Ford	0.12%	833	251		50
Davis Chatfield	0.20%	500	451		83
Davis Riley	0.14%	714	351		6
Denny McCarthy	1.84%	54	61	0.20%	40	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	1.02%	98	111	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Wu	0.28%	357	226		31
Emiliano Grillo	0.87%	115	91		99
Emilio Gonzalez	0.12%	833	451		50
Eric Cole	1.03%	97	61		75
Erik Van Rooyen	0.33%	303	276		83
Gary Woodland	0.85%	118	111		99
Gordon Sargent	0.08%	1250	601		104
Hank Lebioda	0.15%	667	401		93
Haotong Li	0.59%	169	86		55
Harry Hall	1.75%	57	41		6
Hideki Matsuyama	2.64%	38	19		13
Isaiah Salinda	0.29%	345	301		99
J.J. Spaun	2.66%	38	19		40
Jacob Bridgeman	0.61%	164	141		4
Jake Knapp	1.00%	100	91		11
Jeffrey Kang	0.09%	1111	601		112
Joe Highsmith	0.08%	1250	801		66
John Parry	0.65%	154	126		19
John VanDerLaan	0.18%	556	601		83
Johnny Keefer	0.93%	108	71		61
Jordan Smith	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	66	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Spieth	2.10%	48	46		24
Kazuki Higa	0.20%	500	501		83
Keegan Bradley	3.06%	33	26		75
Keita Nakajima	0.38%	263	151		104
Keith Mitchell	1.73%	58	71	0.30%	66	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kensei Hirata	0.13%	769	401		24
Kevin Roy	0.41%	244	251		13
Kota Kaneko	0.21%	476	401		73
Kristoffer Reitan	1.07%	93	71		120
Kurt Kitayama	1.34%	75	46		40
Lee Hodges	0.80%	125	101		6
Luke Clanton	0.39%	256	151		83
Mac Meissner	1.28%	78	71		40
Marcelo Rozo	0.06%	1667	1001		115
Mark Hubbard	0.54%	185	176		66
Matt McCarty	1.26%	79	56		55
Matthieu Pavon	0.23%	435	351		55
Matti Schmid	0.69%	145	126		83
Maverick McNealy	1.91%	52	34		24
Max McGreevy	0.98%	102	91		83
Michael Brennan	0.62%	161	71		104
Michael Kim	1.17%	85	86		31
Neal Shipley	0.53%	189	111		115
Nick Dunlap	0.18%	556	161		61
Nick Taylor	1.80%	56	41		13
Nico Echavarria	1.24%	81	41		112
Patrick Rodgers	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	3	2.4	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire	0.35%	286	276		24
Peter Malnati	0.10%	1000	1001		108
Pierceson Coody	0.72%	139	101		13
Pontus Nyholm	0.14%	714	601		109
Rafael Campos	0.04%	2500	2001		83
Ren Yonezawa	0.13%	769	1001		31
Ricky Castillo	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	31	-0.2	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rico Hoey	1.20%	83	46		50
Robert MacIntyre	3.34%	30	26		4
Russell Henley	5.97%	17	12		19
Ryan Gerard	1.49%	67	56		2
Ryo Hisatsune	0.28%	357	201		75
Sahith Theegala	0.60%	167	91		31
Sam Stevens	0.96%	104	91		31
Seamus Power	1.17%	85	111	0.30%	31	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	0.35%	286	201		13
Seungtaek Lee	0.15%	667	501		93
Si Woo Kim	3.05%	33	24		11
Steven Fisk	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	75	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.08%	1250	1001		13
Taisei Nagasaki	0.01%	10000	2001		93
Takumi Kanaya	0.77%	130	111		31
Taylor Pendrith	1.41%	71	61		6
Tom Hoge	0.29%	345	181		40
Tom Kim	0.66%	152	101		61
Tony Finau	0.68%	147	116		109
Vijay Singh	0.04%	2500	2001		40
Vince Whaley	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	40	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Webb Simpson	0.93%	108	111		55
William Mouw	0.96%	104	141	0.30%	71	-0.3	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuta Sugiura	0.09%	1111	1001		75
Zac Blair	0.45%	222	126		50
Zach Bauchou	0.12%	833	751		70
Zach Johnson	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	61	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zecheng Dou	0.20%	500	351		55

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.13%	769	251		101
Aaron Rai	1.52%	66	51		59
Adam Schenk	0.64%	156	111		92
Adam Scott	1.46%	68	56		29
Adam Svensson	0.39%	256	126		10
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.48%	208	111		7
Adrien Saddier	0.66%	152	126		41
Alejandro Tosti	0.44%	227	126		59
Alex Smalley	1.13%	88	71		7
Anson Cabello	0.11%	909	601		120
Austin Eckroat	1.04%	96	81		29
Austin Smotherman	0.37%	270	151		92
Beau Hossler	0.56%	179	111		59
Ben Griffin	2.05%	49	36		3
Billy Horschel	0.92%	109	86		59
Brian Campbell	0.61%	164	161		108
Brian Harman	1.10%	91	71		41
Brice Garnett	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	17	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bud Cauley	0.60%	167	101		92
Cam Davis	0.50%	200	126		41
Chad Ramey	0.51%	196	141		59
Chandler Blanchet	0.46%	217	101		108
Chandler Phillips	0.75%	133	126		17
Chris Gotterup	1.32%	76	67		3
Chris Kirk	1.22%	82	71		59
Christo Lamprecht	0.38%	263	151		118
Collin Morikawa	1.81%	55	36		101
Corey Conners	1.82%	55	46		80
Corey Kozuma	0.10%	1000	601		80
Daniel Berger	0.92%	109	71		17
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.95%	105	111		80
Danny Walker	0.42%	238	251		29
David Ford	0.47%	213	126		17
Davis Chatfield	0.38%	263	151		80
Davis Riley	0.33%	303	151		29
Denny McCarthy	1.64%	61	56		10
Doug Ghim	0.85%	118	101		59
Dylan Wu	0.43%	233	141		59
Emiliano Grillo	1.12%	89	76		17
Emilio Gonzalez	0.34%	294	151		101
Eric Cole	0.80%	125	71		29
Erik Van Rooyen	0.74%	135	126		41
Gary Woodland	1.10%	91	81		80
Gordon Sargent	0.35%	286	226		104
Hank Lebioda	0.36%	278	151		92
Haotong Li	0.92%	109	71		17
Harry Hall	1.48%	68	51		10
Hideki Matsuyama	1.47%	68	41		59
Isaiah Salinda	0.47%	213	151		104
J.J. Spaun	2.01%	50	34		17
Jacob Bridgeman	0.85%	118	91		59
Jake Knapp	0.81%	123	91		17
Jeffrey Kang	0.28%	357	201		108
Joe Highsmith	0.29%	345	201		41
John Parry	1.00%	100	91		7
John VanDerLaan	0.55%	182	161		3
Johnny Keefer	0.88%	114	71		41
Jordan Smith	0.77%	130	111		41
Jordan Spieth	1.21%	83	56		41
Kazuki Higa	0.40%	250	176		92
Keegan Bradley	1.49%	67	51		41
Keita Nakajima	0.55%	182	111		92
Keith Mitchell	1.52%	66	61		92
Kensei Hirata	0.50%	200	161		29
Kevin Roy	0.81%	123	126		1
Kota Kaneko	0.62%	161	151		59
Kristoffer Reitan	1.25%	80	67		112
Kurt Kitayama	1.36%	74	51		10
Lee Hodges	0.74%	135	101		80
Luke Clanton	0.53%	189	111		59
Mac Meissner	0.97%	103	91		10
Marcelo Rozo	0.21%	476	251		104
Mark Hubbard	0.58%	172	126		59
Matt McCarty	0.90%	111	67		29
Matthieu Pavon	0.61%	164	151		41
Matti Schmid	1.05%	95	91		80
Maverick McNealy	1.17%	85	61		17
Max McGreevy	0.85%	118	81		41
Michael Brennan	0.73%	137	71		112
Michael Kim	1.25%	80	67		29
Neal Shipley	0.60%	167	101		118
Nick Dunlap	0.52%	192	101		10
Nick Taylor	1.66%	60	56		1
Nico Echavarria	0.95%	105	67		112
Patrick Rodgers	0.84%	119	111		17
Patton Kizzire	0.69%	145	126		80
Peter Malnati	0.43%	233	251		112
Pierceson Coody	1.01%	99	91		41
Pontus Nyholm	0.45%	222	201		108
Rafael Campos	0.19%	526	401		80
Ren Yonezawa	0.29%	345	251		41
Ricky Castillo	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rico Hoey	1.30%	77	61		59
Robert MacIntyre	2.19%	46	41		29
Russell Henley	3.06%	33	26		10
Ryan Gerard	1.01%	99	71		59
Ryo Hisatsune	0.64%	156	126		92
Sahith Theegala	0.85%	118	81		104
Sam Stevens	1.15%	87	81		59
Seamus Power	1.25%	80	81		29
Seonghyeon Kim	0.54%	185	131		3
Seungtaek Lee	0.47%	213	201		41
Si Woo Kim	1.48%	68	51		59
Steven Fisk	0.82%	122	101		80
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.26%	385	251		29
Taisei Nagasaki	0.08%	1250	401		112
Takumi Kanaya	1.03%	97	81		17
Taylor Pendrith	1.41%	71	67		59
Tom Hoge	0.47%	213	126		59
Tom Kim	0.99%	101	81		59
Tony Finau	0.70%	143	91		112
Vijay Singh	0.19%	526	401		41
Vince Whaley	0.83%	120	101		29
Webb Simpson	0.78%	128	101		80
William Mouw	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	80	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Yuta Sugiura	0.40%	250	251		59
Zac Blair	0.62%	161	111		41
Zach Bauchou	0.35%	286	226		92
Zach Johnson	0.65%	154	151		41
Zecheng Dou	0.51%	196	151		41

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.22%	82	176	0.70%	19	-2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Keith Mitchell	1.73%	58	71	0.30%	66	-2	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Seamus Power	1.17%	85	111	0.30%	31	-2	Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
FRL: William Mouw	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	80	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ricky Castillo	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	17	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Brice Garnett	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	17	-2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.