Simulation Results: The Sentry

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 15 -0.1 BetVictor: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Hadwin 0.48% 208 176 29
Adam Scott 2.04% 49 34 15
Akshay Bhatia 1.22% 82 36 32
Alex Noren 1.58% 63 67 0.10% Unibet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat 1.19% 84 71 15
Billy Horschel 0.49% 204 71 51
Brian Harman 1.37% 73 56 58
Brice Garnett 0.09% 1111 601 48
Byeong Hun An 1.76% 57 36 32
Cam Davis 0.42% 238 126 13
Cameron Young 1.57% 64 51 8
Chris Gotterup 0.17% 588 401 46
Chris Kirk 0.69% 145 101 44
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.49% 67 91 0.40% 40 -0.4 Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Collin Morikawa 5.48% 18 13 2
Corey Conners 3.20% 31 29 5
Davis Riley 0.10% 1000 501 59
Davis Thompson 1.01% 99 51 36
Denny McCarthy 1.32% 76 71 46
Eric Cole 1.01% 99 71 52
Harry Hall 0.68% 147 91 8
Hideki Matsuyama 3.14% 32 21 1
J.T. Poston 2.12% 47 41 40
Jake Knapp 0.10% 1000 201 56
Jason Day 1.56% 64 51 40
Jhonattan Vegas 0.39% 256 176 4
Justin Thomas 3.56% 28 13 26
Keegan Bradley 1.50% 67 67 15
Kevin Yu 0.43% 233 151 44
Ludvig Aberg 3.32% 30 19 5
Matt Fitzpatrick 1.50% 67 67 24
Matt McCarty 0.13% 769 131 53
Matthieu Pavon 0.39% 256 181 48
Maverick McNealy 1.38% 72 51 8
Max Greyserman 2.43% 41 46 0.30% 24 -0.3 Skybet: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Max Homa 1.37% 73 67 26
Nick Dunlap 0.60% 167 71 55
Nick Taylor 0.20% 500 251 48
Nico Echavarria 0.51% 196 126 32
Patrick Cantlay 5.97% 17 19 0.70% 15 -0.7 BetVictor: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire 0.13% 769 251 40
Peter Malnati 0.03% 3333 1001 53
Rafael Campos 0.10% 1000 601 57
Robert MacIntyre 1.21% 83 46 15
Russell Henley 3.79% 26 36 1.00% 30 -1 Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sahith Theegala 1.64% 61 31 36
Sam Burns 3.96% 25 29 0.50% 8 -0.5 BetVictor: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka 0.61% 164 81 15
Si Woo Kim 1.32% 76 51 32
Stephan Jaeger 0.68% 147 126 36
Sungjae Im 3.67% 27 20 3
Taylor Pendrith 0.96% 104 56 13
Thomas Detry 0.64% 156 126 5
Tom Hoge 0.75% 133 126 8
Tony Finau 2.73% 37 36 15
Viktor Hovland 3.12% 32 29 36
Will Zalatoris 1.12% 89 67 26
Wyndham Clark 1.89% 53 41 15
Xander Schauffele 12.39% 8.1 8 30

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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