Simulation Results: Sanderson Farms Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.07% 1429 501 90
Adam Hadwin 0.53% 189 176 115
Adam Schenk 0.47% 213 226 21
Adam Svensson 0.31% 323 251 103
Akshay Bhatia 3.02% 33 21 115
Alex Smalley 0.92% 109 56 128
Anders Albertson 0.10% 1000 751 67
Andrew Putnam 1.48% 68 126 0.70% 90 -0.7 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 1.20% 83 111 0.30% 103 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Beau Hossler 1.46% 68 56 103
Ben Kohles 0.84% 119 111 115
Ben Martin 0.34% 294 376 0.10% 80 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman 0.41% 244 201 103
Braden Thornberry 0.08% 1250 1501 64
Brandt Snedeker 0.53% 189 276 0.20% 68 -0.2 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Drewitt 0.02% 5000 2501 127
Brice Garnett 0.25% 400 351 21
Byeong Hun An 1.14% 88 71 29
Cameron Champ 0.42% 238 61 90
Cameron Huss 0.03% 3333 1251 125
Camilo Villegas 0.07% 1429 751 128
Carson Young 0.44% 227 131 38
Chad Ramey 0.73% 137 121 68
Chan Kim 0.46% 217 176 60
Chandler Phillips 0.83% 120 151 0.20% 44 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.70% 59 76 0.40% 6 0.66666666666667 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cristobal Del Solar 0.04% 2500 1001 68
Danny Walker 0.12% 833 401 3
David Ford 0.06% 1667 401 44
David Lipsky 0.21% 476 226 48
David Skinns 0.42% 238 126 90
Davis Riley 0.54% 185 151 68
Davis Thompson 2.80% 36 26 21
Doc Redman 0.16% 625 476 9
Doug Ghim 1.41% 71 56 55
Emiliano Grillo 3.11% 32 41 0.70% 103 -0.7 Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eric Cole 1.22% 82 111 0.30% 9 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.82% 122 91 66
Francesco Molinari 0.16% 625 501 68
Frankie Capan 0.05% 2000 1501 6
Garrick Higgo 1.70% 59 46 2
Gordon Sargent 0.13% 769 501 38
Grant Landry 0.01% 10000 4001 132
Greyson Sigg 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 21 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harrison Endycott 0.05% 2000 1501 103
Harry Higgs 0.26% 385 131 55
Hayden Buckley 0.08% 1250 601 55
Hayden Springer 0.64% 156 101 80
Henrik Norlander 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 103 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.90% 111 91 125
J.T. Poston 2.50% 40 36 29
Jackson Suber 0.20% 500 251 80
Jacob Bridgeman 1.87% 53 51 68
Jason Dufner 0.05% 2000 1001 90
Jeremy Paul 0.39% 256 251 48
Jesper Svensson 0.63% 159 67 48
Joel Dahmen 0.55% 182 151 80
John Pak 0.16% 625 601 103
Joseph Bramlett 0.92% 109 101 80
Justin Lower 0.22% 455 301 103
Kaito Onishi 0.02% 5000 2501 68
Keith Mitchell 1.61% 62 56 68
Kevin Roy 0.69% 145 121 18
Kevin Streelman 0.31% 323 451 0.10% 48 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Velo 0.16% 625 451 131
Kevin Yu 2.69% 37 31 11
Kris Ventura 0.34% 294 176 21
Kye Meeks 0.01% 10000 4001 38
Lanto Griffin 0.92% 109 86 90
Lee Hodges 1.01% 99 101 38
Luke Clanton 0.66% 152 71 29
Luke List 0.70% 143 131 29
Mac Meissner 0.97% 103 71 14
Mackenzie Hughes 2.12% 47 46 80
Mark Hubbard 1.49% 67 61 38
Mason Andersen 0.06% 1667 1501 103
Matt Kuchar 1.98% 51 91 0.90% 18 -0.9 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 0.28% 357 326 21
Matt Wallace 1.50% 67 46 80
Matteo Manassero 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 80 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Riedel 0.09% 1111 451 120
Matthieu Pavon 0.22% 455 401 90
Matti Schmid 0.84% 119 71 14
Max Homa 1.57% 64 46 18
Max McGreevy 0.30% 333 131 68
Michael La Sasso 0.02% 5000 301 103
Michael Thorbjornsen 2.35% 43 23 29
Min Woo Lee 3.08% 32 23 90
Nick Dunlap 0.13% 769 301 44
Nicolai Hojgaard 1.29% 78 36 90
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.95% 105 71 115
Noah Goodwin 0.32% 313 176 21
Norman Xiong 0.17% 588 376 64
Patrick Fishburn 1.49% 67 61 38
Patrick Rodgers 1.02% 98 91 90
Patton Kizzire 0.21% 476 376 80
Paul Peterson 0.36% 278 451 0.10% 120 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Malnati 0.16% 625 351
Pierceson Coody 0.70% 143 81 14
Quade Cummins 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 62 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rafael Campos 0.12% 833 801 62
Rasmus Hojgaard 2.22% 45 26 3
Ricky Castillo 0.97% 103 71 68
Rico Hoey 1.75% 57 36 115
Ryan Armour 0.04% 2500 2501 120
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 2501 120
Ryo Hisatsune 1.33% 75 86 0.20% 48 -0.2 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Ryder 0.37% 270 201 29
Sam Stevens 1.20% 83 61 120
Sami Valimaki 1.16% 86 67 90
Seamus Power 1.24% 81 101 0.30% 48 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger 1.62% 62 67 0.10% 44 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steven Fisk 0.95% 105 101 1
Takumi Kanaya 0.99% 101 101 21
Taylor Dickson 0.02% 5000 1501 68
Taylor Montgomery 0.99% 101 101 6
Taylor Moore 0.93% 108 67 68
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.39% 256 111 29
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.68% 60 56 14
Thriston Lawrence 0.42% 238 151 48
Tim Widing 0.07% 1429 751 60
Tom Hoge 0.75% 133 181 0.20% 128 -0.2 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Kim 0.78% 128 111 11
Trevor Cone 0.21% 476 181 80
Trey Mullinax 0.36% 278 176 29
Victor Perez 1.30% 77 86 0.10% 11 -0.1 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Vince Covello 0.02% 5000 3001 55
Vince Whaley 1.37% 73 56 3
Will Chandler 0.08% 1250 1501 55
Will Gordon 0.14% 714 276 90
Zac Blair 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 103 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 29 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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