Simulation Results: RSM Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Hadwin 0.69% 145 126 70
Adam Schenk 0.79% 127 126 151
Adam Svensson 0.51% 196 151 108
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.77% 130 86 96
Alex Smalley 1.58% 63 34 62
Anders Albertson 0.05% 2000 2001 119
Andrew Novak 0.67% 149 71 7
Andrew Putnam 0.91% 110 176 0.30% 25 -0.3 BetGoodwin: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.49% 204 226 25
Austin Cook 0.08% 1250 1001 143
Austin Eckroat 0.95% 105 81 41
Beau Hossler 0.71% 141 91 64
Ben Kohles 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 34 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Martin 0.26% 385 401 21
Ben Polland 0.09% 1111 3001 0.10% 148 -0.1 Bet365: 3000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman 0.74% 135 111 47
Blades Brown 0.29% 345 301 74
Braden Thornberry 0.15% 667 401 74
Brandt Snedeker 0.59% 169 176 64
Brendan Valdes 0.16% 625 351 72
Brendon Todd 0.07% 1429 1001 153
Brian Harman 1.93% 52 26 74
Brice Garnett 0.28% 357 351 41
Bud Cauley 1.16% 86 56 148
Byeong Hun An 0.98% 102 76 25
Cameron Champ 0.32% 313 171 96
Camilo Villegas 0.17% 588 301 74
Carson Young 0.56% 179 126 74
Chad Ramey 0.71% 141 101 62
Chan Kim 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chandler Phillips 1.15% 87 91 0.10% 136 -0.1 BetGoodwin: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Chesson Hadley 0.08% 1250 751 74
Chez Reavie 0.05% 2000 751 71
Chris Kirk 1.57% 64 41 41
Cristobal Del Solar 0.07% 1429 2001 74
Daniel Berger 1.15% 87 41 51
Danny Walker 0.14% 714 476 74
David Ford 0.27% 370 126 74
David Lipsky 0.41% 244 176 136
David Skinns 0.36% 278 251 128
Davis Love 0.00% 10000 5001 155
Davis Riley 0.16% 625 351 67
Davis Thompson 1.01% 99 46 25
Denny McCarthy 2.17% 46 34 51
Doc Redman 0.25% 400 226 18
Doug Ghim 1.26% 79 71 7
Dylan Frittelli 0.08% 1250 1001 96
Dylan Wu 0.53% 189 176 119
Eric Cole 1.46% 68 61 21
Frankie Capan 0.16% 625 226 128
George McNeill 0.03% 3333 3001 148
Gordon Sargent 0.16% 625 751 128
Greyson Sigg 0.73% 137 111 25
Harris English 2.26% 44 26 47
Harrison Endycott 0.09% 1111 1001 34
Harry Higgs 0.26% 385 376 108
Hayden Buckley 0.11% 909 601 25
Hayden Springer 0.82% 122 101 108
Henrik Norlander 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 25 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.55% 182 126 128
J.T. Poston 2.05% 49 34 7
Jackson Suber 0.72% 139 126 51
Jacob Bridgeman 1.24% 81 67 143
James Hahn 0.05% 2000 2001 72
Jason Dufner 0.04% 2500 2001 143
Jeremy Paul 0.65% 154 176 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jesper Svensson 1.00% 100 91 51
Joe Highsmith 0.22% 455 351 136
Joel Dahmen 0.51% 196 176 96
John Pak 0.25% 400 251 7
Johnny Keefer 0.89% 112 81 7
Jonathan Byrd 0.41% 244 251 41
Joseph Bramlett 0.44% 227 251 119
Justin Lower 0.42% 238 176 96
Kaito Onishi 0.06% 1667 2001 128
Karl Vilips 0.18% 556 276 51
Keith Mitchell 1.37% 73 61 18
Kevin Kisner 0.05% 2000 601 108
Kevin Roy 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 74 -0.1 BetGoodwin: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kevin Streelman 0.11% 909 751 74
Kevin Velo 0.13% 769 601 74
Kris Ventura 1.23% 81 101 0.20% 34 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Cottam 0.03% 3333 3001 96
Kyle Westmoreland 0.03% 3333 1001 136
Lanto Griffin 0.29% 345 251 74
Lee Hodges 1.07% 93 126 0.30% 4 2.925 Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Clanton 1.04% 96 81 108
Luke List 0.25% 400 476 74
Mac Meissner 1.15% 87 61 18
Mackenzie Hughes 1.19% 84 56 51
Mark Hubbard 0.76% 132 101 34
Martin Laird 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Andersen 0.15% 667 551 96
Mason Howell 0.02% 5000 401 153
Matt Atkins 0.07% 1429 1501 108
Matt Kuchar 2.11% 47 51 0.20% 67 -0.2 BetGoodwin: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 0.29% 345 401 143
Matt Sanders 0.00% 10000 3001 156
Matt Wallace 1.30% 77 61 51
Matthew Riedel 0.09% 1111 751 47
Matthieu Pavon 0.32% 313 251 67
Max McGreevy 1.12% 89 56 2
Michael Brennan 1.24% 81 51 51
Michael Thorbjornsen 2.44% 41 26 7
Nick Hardy 0.26% 385 251 74
Nick Watney 0.03% 3333 2001 151
Nico Echavarria 1.59% 63 41 4
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.64% 156 126 41
Noah Goodwin 0.78% 128 161 0.20% 108 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Fishburn 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 34 -0.1 William Hill: 100/1, 6pl, 1/4
Patrick Rodgers 1.38% 72 67 7
Patton Kizzire 0.37% 270 251 34
Paul Peterson 0.41% 244 351 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Knade 0.07% 1429 2001 74
Pierceson Coody 1.58% 63 46 51
Quade Cummins 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rafael Campos 0.07% 1429 1501 74
Ricky Castillo 0.61% 164 126 3
Rico Hoey 1.83% 55 29 7
Rikuya Hoshino 0.34% 294 226 96
Robby Shelton 0.14% 714 401 119
Robert Streb 0.01% 10000 1501 74
Ryan Blaum 0.06% 1667 2001 119
Ryan Gerard 1.05% 95 67 96
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 3001 21
Ryo Hisatsune 0.68% 147 126 128
Sahith Theegala 1.15% 87 51 74
Sam Ryder 0.58% 172 126 47
Sam Stevens 0.83% 120 71 7
Sami Valimaki 1.50% 67 61 1
Scott Piercy 0.07% 1429 1001 119
Seamus Power 1.50% 67 56 7
Si Woo Kim 1.99% 50 29 4
Stephan Jaeger 1.34% 75 101 0.40% 108 -0.4 Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Fisk 1.06% 94 81 74
Takumi Kanaya 1.40% 71 51 119
Taylor Dickson 0.08% 1250 1501 108
Taylor Montgomery 0.78% 128 126 136
Taylor Moore 0.82% 122 141 0.10% 136 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.70% 143 141 64
Thorbjorn Olesen 2.97% 34 41 0.50% 96 -0.5 Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Widing 0.12% 833 601 108
Tom Hoge 0.87% 115 131 0.10% 108 -0.1 BetGoodwin: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Tommy Gainey 0.09% 1111 901 136
Trevor Cone 0.44% 227 151 96
Trey Mullinax 0.29% 345 301 25
Troy Merritt 0.11% 909 751 51
Tyler Duncan 0.19% 526 301 128
Vince Covello 0.04% 2500 3001 143
Vince Whaley 2.02% 50 41 34
Webb Simpson 0.41% 244 151 25
Will Chandler 0.05% 2000 1501 128
Will Gordon 0.27% 370 301 96
William Mouw 0.81% 123 101 21
Zac Blair 0.60% 167 101 7
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 276 74

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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