Simulation Results: Puerto Rico Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.68%	147	67		26
Aaron Wise	0.03%	3333	401		69
Adam Hadwin	1.13%	88	67		21
Adam Long	0.01%	10000	1001		69
Adam Svensson	0.50%	200	101		26
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	2.08%	48	34		26
Adrien Saddier	1.45%	69	61		91
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	251		82
Austin Cook	0.04%	2500	501		82
Austin Eckroat	1.57%	64	51		42
Beau Hossler	1.28%	78	56		37
Ben Kohles	2.02%	50	51	0.10%	42	-0.1	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Martin	0.54%	185	126		91
Ben Silverman	0.74%	135	126		16
Blades Brown	0.64%	156	101		3
Brandt Snedeker	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	82	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 7pl, 1/5
Brice Garnett	0.71%	141	91		50
Cameron Champ	0.72%	139	71		78
Camilo Villegas	0.14%	714	351		63
Carson Bertagnole	0.00%	10000	351		101
Carson Young	1.62%	62	51		66
Chad Ramey	2.30%	43	41		106
Chan Kim	1.30%	77	67		26
Chandler Blanchet	0.58%	172	91		2
Charley Hoffman	0.12%	833	251		78
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.01%	10000	751		111
Chesson Hadley	0.09%	1111	251		101
Chris Nido	0.00%	10000	451		82
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	4.76%	21	29	1.40%	8	-1.4	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.23%	435	126		50
Danny Walker	0.45%	222	176		61
Danny Willett	0.19%	526	501		42
David Ford	1.45%	69	51		16
David Lipsky	0.80%	125	101		37
David Skinns	0.29%	345	176		8
Davis Chatfield	0.35%	286	176		42
Davis Riley	0.79%	127	67		42
Davis Thompson	3.06%	33	23		4
Doug Ghim	1.90%	53	46		26
Dylan Wu	0.87%	115	67		50
Eric Cole	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	69	-0.1	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Barnes	0.00%	10000			21
Erik Van Rooyen	0.60%	167	101		106
Eugenio Chacarra	0.53%	189	56		21
Evan Pena	0.00%	10000	3001		118
Fabian Gomez	0.26%	385	251		82
Filip Jakubcik	0.02%	5000	151		106
Frankie Capan	0.06%	1667	426		50
Fred Biondi	0.09%	1111	351		37
Gordon Sargent	0.20%	500	201		8
Hank Lebioda	0.50%	200	101		61
Harry Higgs	0.35%	286	151		78
Hayden Springer	0.69%	145	86		26
Henrik Norlander	0.44%	227	151		57
Hunter Logan	0.02%	5000			117
Isaiah Salinda	0.50%	200	91		50
Jackson Suber	0.75%	133	81		91
James Hahn	0.04%	2500	601		64
Jeffrey Kang	0.20%	500	276		82
Jeremy Paul	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	8	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jesper Svensson	1.37%	73	46		8
Jimmy Stanger	0.20%	500	151		26
John Daly	0.00%	10000
John Parry	1.99%	50	41		8
John VanDerLaan	0.76%	132	101		21
Jonathan Byrd	0.35%	286	226		118
Justin Lower	0.46%	217	126		69
Kensei Hirata	0.39%	256	176		91
Kevin Streelman	0.40%	250	251		8
Kieron Van Wyk	0.52%	192	131		114
Kihei Akina	0.00%	10000	276		16
Kris Ventura	1.93%	52	46		69
Lanto Griffin	0.55%	182	151		69
Luke Clanton	0.82%	122	56		5
Luke List	0.30%	333	176		69
Luke Long	0.02%	5000			106
Marcelo Rozo	0.06%	1667	376		65
Mark Hubbard	1.45%	69	67		42
Martin Laird	0.22%	455	226		57
Matt Wallace	2.69%	37	36		82
Matthieu Pavon	1.23%	81	91	0.10%	42	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	2.28%	44	36		5
Michael Brennan	1.79%	56	29		26
Michael Kartrude	0.00%	10000	2001		101
Miles Russell	0.01%	10000	151		50
Neal Shipley	0.66%	152	71		91
Nicholas Lindheim	0.02%	5000	351		120
Nick Dunlap	0.13%	769	151		82
Nick Hardy	0.37%	270	126		91
Noah Goodwin	0.45%	222	126		91
Patrick Fishburn	1.26%	79	71		114
Paul Peterson	0.22%	455	351		5
Paul Waring	0.19%	526	251		101
Peter Malnati	0.19%	526	351		26
Pontus Nyholm	0.25%	400	141		16
Rafael Campos	0.13%	769	201		16
Rasmus Hojgaard	5.51%	18	12		106
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	4.46%	22	18		68
Reinaldo Simoni	0.00%	10000	3001		114
Ricky Castillo	3.62%	28	23		1
Robert Streb	0.03%	3333	901		57
Ryan Brehm	0.02%	5000	501		26
Ryan Palmer	0.02%	5000	1001		111
Sam Ryder	1.28%	78	67		101
Scott Piercy	0.06%	1667	376		91
Seamus Power	3.04%	33	36	0.30%	78	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 35/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	1.02%	98	61		42
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.98%	102	56		37
Takumi Kanaya	2.75%	36	56	1.00%	91	-1	Boyle Sports: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.17%	85	81		69
Ted Potter	0.00%	10000			69
Trey Mullinax	0.56%	179	131
Troy Merritt	0.20%	500	301		66
Tyler Duncan	0.23%	435	226		50
Vince Whaley	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
William McGirt	0.00%	10000	751		111
Yanhan Zhou	0.12%	833	151		82
Zac Blair	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	8	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou	1.25%	80	71		21
Zecheng Dou	1.85%	54	41		57

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.77%	130	67		55
Aaron Wise	0.13%	769	201		21
Adam Hadwin	1.09%	92	67		4
Adam Long	0.04%	2500	351		99
Adam Svensson	0.68%	147	91		55
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	1.66%	60	46		21
Adrien Saddier	1.47%	68	67		74
Alejandro Tosti	0.10%	1000	126		55
Austin Cook	0.12%	833	226		89
Austin Eckroat	1.39%	72	67		55
Beau Hossler	1.19%	84	67		10
Ben Kohles	1.86%	54	56	0.10%	4	0.14583333333333	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Martin	0.69%	145	101		74
Ben Silverman	0.83%	120	91		55
Blades Brown	0.75%	133	71		10
Brandt Snedeker	0.83%	120	126		99
Brice Garnett	0.84%	119	81		39
Cameron Champ	0.84%	119	81		89
Camilo Villegas	0.28%	357	151		74
Carson Bertagnole	0.00%	10000	151		39
Carson Young	1.43%	70	67		39
Chad Ramey	1.83%	55	56		89
Chan Kim	1.38%	72	71		21
Chandler Blanchet	0.71%	141	81		1
Charley Hoffman	0.24%	417	126		39
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.04%	2500	251		117
Chesson Hadley	0.20%	500	126		99
Chris Nido	0.03%	3333	201		21
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.38%	30	51	1.40%	55	-1.4	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.35%	286	91		74
Danny Walker	0.64%	156	101		39
Danny Willett	0.33%	303	191		39
David Ford	1.30%	77	56		21
David Lipsky	0.88%	114	91		21
David Skinns	0.51%	196	111		4
Davis Chatfield	0.48%	208	111		21
Davis Riley	0.99%	101	71		74
Davis Thompson	2.51%	40	41	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	1.76%	57	67	0.30%	89	-0.3	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Wu	0.97%	103	67		21
Eric Cole	2.27%	44	56	0.50%	89	-0.5	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Barnes	0.01%	10000	351		21
Erik Van Rooyen	0.78%	128	91		112
Eugenio Chacarra	0.71%	141	67		74
Evan Pena	0.00%	10000	501		117
Fabian Gomez	0.45%	222	151		55
Filip Jakubcik	0.08%	1250	101		107
Frankie Capan	0.18%	556	176		10
Fred Biondi	0.24%	417	151		39
Gordon Sargent	0.36%	278	126		2
Hank Lebioda	0.71%	141	91		21
Harry Higgs	0.47%	213	101		55
Hayden Springer	0.86%	116	81		4
Henrik Norlander	0.73%	137	111		21
Hunter Logan	0.10%	1000	351		89
Isaiah Salinda	0.58%	172	81		55
Jackson Suber	0.83%	120	81		74
James Hahn	0.14%	714	201		55
Jeffrey Kang	0.35%	286	151		55
Jeremy Paul	0.83%	120	111		10
Jesper Svensson	1.35%	74	61		3
Jimmy Stanger	0.40%	250	91		21
John Daly	0.00%	10000
John Parry	1.67%	60	56		55
John VanDerLaan	0.94%	106	81		55
Jonathan Byrd	0.46%	217	151		120
Justin Lower	0.68%	147	91		112
Kensei Hirata	0.59%	169	111		21
Kevin Streelman	0.59%	169	126		74
Kieron Van Wyk	0.69%	145	91		99
Kihei Akina	0.02%	5000	151		4
Kris Ventura	1.75%	57	61	0.10%	74	-0.1	VirginBet: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lanto Griffin	0.75%	133	111		39
Luke Clanton	0.92%	109	61		10
Luke List	0.47%	213	101		39
Luke Long	0.07%	1429	351		39
Marcelo Rozo	0.20%	500	151		21
Mark Hubbard	1.44%	69	67		89
Martin Laird	0.39%	256	126		21
Matt Wallace	2.32%	43	56	0.50%	74	-0.5	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	1.41%	71	71		74
Matti Schmid	1.82%	55	51		39
Michael Brennan	1.63%	61	41		10
Michael Kartrude	0.01%	10000	401		107
Miles Russell	0.08%	1250	91		39
Neal Shipley	0.81%	123	76		107
Nicholas Lindheim	0.07%	1429	176		116
Nick Dunlap	0.33%	303	91		74
Nick Hardy	0.56%	179	91		89
Noah Goodwin	0.64%	156	91		55
Patrick Fishburn	1.36%	74	71		112
Paul Peterson	0.44%	227	176		55
Paul Waring	0.38%	263	126		74
Peter Malnati	0.37%	270	176		10
Pontus Nyholm	0.39%	256	101		10
Rafael Campos	0.30%	333	126		21
Rasmus Hojgaard	3.98%	25	31	0.80%	39	-0.8	Spreadex: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	3.05%	33	36	0.30%	55	-0.3	Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Reinaldo Simoni	0.00%	10000	501		107
Ricky Castillo	2.77%	36	41	0.30%	4	0.375	Priced Up: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert Streb	0.10%	1000	251		10
Ryan Brehm	0.08%	1250	201		10
Ryan Palmer	0.09%	1111	276		117
Sam Ryder	1.26%	79	76		89
Scott Piercy	0.20%	500	176		99
Seamus Power	2.30%	43	56	0.50%	99	-0.5	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim	1.03%	97	61		89
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	1.09%	92	67		74
Takumi Kanaya	2.13%	47	71	0.70%	112	-0.7	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.24%	81	81		107
Ted Potter	0.03%	3333	351		55
Trey Mullinax	0.74%	135	91
Troy Merritt	0.35%	286	151		39
Tyler Duncan	0.39%	256	111		74
Vince Whaley	2.24%	45	61	0.60%	39	-0.6	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
William McGirt	0.03%	3333	251		99
Yanhan Zhou	0.28%	357	101		55
Zac Blair	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	39	-0.2	Betfred: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou	1.33%	75	67		21
Zecheng Dou	1.76%	57	56		10

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	4.76%	21	29	1.40%	8	-2	Boyle Sports: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Takumi Kanaya	2.75%	36	56	1.00%	91	-2	Boyle Sports: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Seamus Power	3.04%	33	36	0.30%	78	-2	Boyle Sports: 35/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.38%	30	51	1.40%	55	-1	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rasmus Hojgaard	3.98%	25	31	0.80%	39	-1	Spreadex: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Takumi Kanaya	2.13%	47	71	0.70%	112	-1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Vince Whaley	2.24%	45	61	0.60%	39	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Eric Cole	2.27%	44	56	0.50%	89	-1	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matt Wallace	2.32%	43	56	0.50%	74	-1	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.