Simulation Results: Procore Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Hadwin 0.35% 286 301 73
Adam Schenk 0.10% 1000 601 30
Adam Svensson 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 113 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Akshay Bhatia 1.71% 58 36 11
Alex Smalley 0.73% 137 111 113
Anders Albertson 0.03% 3333 2001 67
Andrew Putnam 1.06% 94 151 0.40% 73 -0.4 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook 0.05% 2000 2001 123
Austin Eckroat 0.58% 172 151 11
Beau Hossler 0.94% 106 111 47
Ben Griffin 2.61% 38 29 2
Ben Kohles 0.28% 357 301 26
Ben Martin 0.16% 625 751 82
Ben Silverman 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Thornberry 0.02% 5000 2501 57
Brandon Wu 0.11% 909 1001
Brandt Snedeker 0.17% 588 501 19
Brian Campbell 0.20% 500 501 129
Brice Garnett 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 123 -0.1 Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Byeong Hun An 0.65% 154 151 57
Cameron Champ 0.29% 345 126 82
Cameron Young 2.67% 37 23 9
Camilo Villegas 0.05% 2000 1001 113
Carson Young 0.40% 250 251 73
Chad Ramey 0.29% 345 351 30
Chan Kim 0.29% 345 351 82
Chandler Phillips 0.62% 161 251 0.20% 73 -0.2 Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chesson Hadley 0.10% 1000 801 138
Chez Reavie 0.06% 1667 751 102
Collin Morikawa 2.46% 41 26 43
Corey Pereira 0.00% 10000 3001 91
Cristobal Del Solar 0.06% 1667 1001 143
Danny Walker 0.13% 769 601 129
David Ford 0.02% 5000 501 82
David Lipsky 0.35% 286 201 113
David Skinns 0.27% 370 301 53
Davis Thompson 1.61% 62 56 19
Doug Ghim 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 26 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emiliano Grillo 0.86% 116 111 4
Eric Cole 0.47% 213 176 43
Ethan Fang 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 113 -0.1 Unibet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frankie Capan 0.02% 5000 2501 123
Garrick Higgo 0.42% 238 226 7
Gary Woodland 1.28% 78 116 0.40% 19 -0.4 BetVictor: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
George McNeill 0.03% 3333 3001 82
Gordon Sargent 0.08% 1250 751 102
Greyson Sigg 0.22% 455 401 19
Gunner Wiebe 0.00% 10000 5001 141
Harris English 2.96% 34 36 0.20% 43 -0.2 BetVictor: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harrison Endycott 0.03% 3333 2501 102
Harry Higgs 0.30% 333 176 73
Hayden Buckley 0.03% 3333 1501 91
Hayden Springer 0.34% 294 226 57
Henrik Norlander 0.35% 286 401 0.10% 91 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.25% 400 276 13
J.J. Spaun 2.84% 35 29 6
Jackson Koivun 2.53% 40 56 0.80% 4 5.1 Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Suber 0.15% 667 351 113
James Hahn 0.03% 3333 2501 91
Jason Dufner 0.01% 10000 2501 30
Jeremy Paul 0.20% 500 501 82
Jim Knous 0.00% 10000 2501 70
Joe Highsmith 0.25% 400 351 129
Joel Dahmen 0.59% 169 226 0.10% 102 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Pak 0.08% 1250 1001 64
Jonathan Byrd 0.07% 1429 2001 19
Joseph Bramlett 0.44% 227 351 0.20% 26 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Hastings 0.04% 2500 1001 26
Justin Lower 0.31% 323 276 129
Justin Thomas 3.43% 29 19 69
Kaito Onishi 0.01% 10000 2501 138
Karl Vilips 0.17% 588 301 47
Keith Mitchell 1.02% 98 116 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Roy 0.42% 238 201 102
Kevin Streelman 0.05% 2000 1001 57
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 1501 38
Kris Ventura 0.39% 256 226 134
Lanto Griffin 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 3 3.45 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Clanton 0.78% 128 126 123
Luke List 0.15% 667 501 30
Mac Meissner 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 47 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mackenzie Hughes 0.60% 167 151 7
Mark Hubbard 1.09% 92 91 38
Martin Laird 0.25% 400 401 57
Mason Andersen 0.04% 2500 2501 91
Matt Kuchar 1.23% 81 111 0.30% 13 -0.3 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt McCarty 0.98% 102 91 43
Matt NeSmith 0.07% 1429 1001 91
Matthew Adams 0.00% 10000 4001 134
Matthew Riedel 0.07% 1429 1001 102
Maverick McNealy 2.30% 43 29 13
Max Greyserman 1.11% 90 71 134
Max Homa 0.89% 112 67 19
Max McGreevy 0.41% 244 201 123
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.61% 164 91 13
Miles Russell 0.01% 10000 351 113
Nick Hardy 0.19% 526 401 91
Nick Watney 0.03% 3333 1501 113
Nico Echavarria 0.63% 159 126 102
Noah Goodwin 0.35% 286 251 91
Patrick Cantlay 4.05% 25 19 30
Patrick Fishburn 1.01% 99 91 38
Patton Kizzire 0.21% 476 351 82
Paul Peterson 0.22% 455 551 73
Peter Malnati 0.07% 1429 1001 57
Philip Knowles 0.05% 2000 2001 123
Quade Cummins 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 64 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rafael Campos 0.07% 1429 1001 102
Ricky Castillo 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 30 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rico Hoey 0.78% 128 101 9
Russell Henley 4.66% 21 17 19
Ryan Palmer 0.00% 10000 5001 91
Ryo Hisatsune 0.34% 294 251 13
Sahith Theegala 0.37% 270 111 38
Sam Burns 3.56% 28 23 13
Sam Ryder 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 138 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sami Valimaki 0.98% 102 91 73
Sangha Park 0.02% 5000 4001 102
Scott Piercy 0.05% 2000 1001 73
Scottie Scheffler 18.55% 5.4 3.4 1
Seamus Power 0.72% 139 251 0.30% 47 -0.3 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steven Fisk 0.31% 323 301 30
Takumi Kanaya 0.35% 286 226 73
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 2001 144
Taylor Montgomery 0.27% 370 201 30
Taylor Moore 0.88% 114 141 0.20% 102 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.31% 323 251 64
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.37% 73 101 0.40% 82 -0.4 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim Widing 0.02% 5000 1251 129
Tom Hoge 0.42% 238 201 91
Tom Johnson 0.01% 10000 5001 141
Tom Kim 0.60% 167 151 72
Tommy Gainey 0.03% 3333 2001 113
Trevor Cone 0.15% 667 501 67
Trey Mullinax 0.12% 833 601 47
Troy Merritt 0.07% 1429 1251 53
Tyler Watts 0.00% 10000 601 53
Victor Perez 0.92% 109 141 0.20% 102 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 5001 57
Vince Whaley 0.58% 172 151 38
Webb Simpson 0.53% 189 176 113
Will Chandler 0.01% 10000 2501 70
Will Gordon 0.15% 667 401 134
Zac Blair 0.17% 588 501 47

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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