Simulation Results: The Players Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.10%	1000	751		114
Aaron Rai	0.64%	156	101		84
Adam Schenk	0.01%	10000	1501		74
Adam Scott	1.57%	64	67	0.10%	56	-0.1	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Akshay Bhatia	1.30%	77	46		13
Aldrich Potgieter	0.03%	3333	351		105
Alex Noren	1.12%	89	81		32
Alex Smalley	0.20%	500	201		24
Andrew Novak	0.17%	588	301		98
Andrew Putnam	0.11%	909	601		32
Austin Smotherman	0.14%	714	301		13
Ben Griffin	1.22%	82	76		84
Brian Campbell	0.01%	10000	1501		74
Brian Harman	0.23%	435	251		11
Brooks Koepka	0.42%	238	71		13
Bud Cauley	0.22%	455	201		32
Cam Davis	0.01%	10000	1501		98
Cameron Young	2.15%	47	36		1
Chad Ramey	0.08%	1250	451		27
Chandler Phillips	0.06%	1667	751		118
Chris Gotterup	1.08%	93	51		56
Chris Kirk	0.22%	455	351		27
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.76%	132	101		98
Collin Morikawa	3.02%	33	19
Corey Conners	0.92%	109	71		13
Daniel Berger	1.07%	93	56		66
Danny Walker	0.02%	5000	1251		62
Davis Riley	0.05%	2000	1001		122
Davis Thompson	0.59%	169	126		84
Denny McCarthy	0.42%	238	251		105
Emiliano Grillo	0.17%	588	401		121
Eric Cole	0.15%	667	401		32
Erik Van Rooyen	0.02%	5000	1001		84
Garrick Higgo	0.15%	667	351		109
Gary Woodland	0.06%	1667	501		84
Haotong Li	0.26%	385	201		84
Harris English	1.58%	63	56		98
Harry Hall	0.73%	137	101		84
Hideki Matsuyama	2.11%	47	34		27
J.J. Spaun	0.56%	179	86		24
J.T. Poston	0.22%	455	201		50
Jacob Bridgeman	1.09%	92	61		5
Jake Knapp	1.82%	55	46		74
Jason Day	0.89%	112	101		59
Jhonattan Vegas	0.03%	3333	601		74
Joe Highsmith	0.01%	10000	2501		42
Joel Dahmen	0.16%	625	176		98
Johnny Keefer	0.24%	417	301		84
Jordan Smith	0.40%	250	226		109
Jordan Spieth	1.57%	64	71	0.20%	32	-0.2	Skybet: 45/1, 12pl, 1/5
Justin Rose	0.49%	204	71		13
Justin Thomas	0.10%	1000	126		8
Karl Vilips	0.04%	2500	1251		109
Keegan Bradley	0.74%	135	126		50
Keith Mitchell	0.46%	217	111		46
Kevin Roy	0.19%	526	351		59
Kevin Yu	0.11%	909	401		118
Kristoffer Reitan	0.28%	357	176		66
Kurt Kitayama	1.31%	76	61		92
Lee Hodges	0.11%	909	401		59
Lucas Glover	0.28%	357	301		74
Ludvig Aberg	1.98%	51	23		5
Mac Meissner	0.25%	400	226		74
Mackenzie Hughes	0.27%	370	226		105
Marco Penge	0.09%	1111	161		105
Mark Hubbard	0.08%	1250	601		98
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.92%	52	34		2
Matt McCarty	0.59%	169	141		74
Matthieu Pavon	0.06%	1667	1001		92
Matti Schmid	0.18%	556	451		46
Maverick McNealy	1.51%	66	56		32
Max Greyserman	0.38%	263	151		114
Max Homa	0.38%	263	161		32
Max McGreevy	0.17%	588	161		50
Michael Brennan	0.17%	588	251		69
Michael Kim	0.22%	455	251		117
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.40%	250	101		22
Min Woo Lee	2.16%	46	36		32
Nick Taylor	0.66%	152	111		42
Nico Echavarria	0.28%	357	126		66
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.76%	132	81		27
Patrick Cantlay	1.62%	62	61		32
Patrick Rodgers	0.31%	323	251		11
Pierceson Coody	0.35%	286	111		118
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.47%	213	126		74
Rickie Fowler	2.13%	47	56	0.40%	42	-0.4	Skybet: 35/1, 12pl, 1/5
Ricky Castillo	0.50%	200	131		70
Rico Hoey	0.13%	769	251		62
Robert MacIntyre	1.39%	72	56		4
Rory McIlroy	5.63%	18	16		46
Russell Henley	3.75%	27	31	0.50%	13	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.53%	189	161
Ryan Gerard	0.52%	192	71		27
Ryo Hisatsune	0.25%	400	151		13
Sahith Theegala	0.55%	182	81		32
Sam Burns	0.96%	104	81		13
Sam Stevens	0.31%	323	161		58
Sami Valimaki	0.15%	667	401		109
Scottie Scheffler	16.69%	6	8	4.80%	22	-4.8	VirginBet: 7/1, 7pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	0.04%	2500	501		92
Sepp Straka	0.98%	102	46		8
Shane Lowry	1.94%	52	56	0.20%	92	-0.2	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	50	-0.1	VirginBet: 40/1, 7pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger	0.22%	455	401		62
Steven Fisk	0.12%	833	601		62
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.12%	833	501		5
Sungjae Im	0.17%	588	176		74
Takumi Kanaya	0.11%	909	401		73
Taylor Moore	0.19%	526	351		50
Taylor Pendrith	0.52%	192	126		46
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.46%	217	161		92
Tom Hoge	0.14%	714	251		114
Tommy Fleetwood	3.40%	29	26		8
Tony Finau	0.17%	588	201		70
Viktor Hovland	2.17%	46	41		13
Vince Whaley	0.14%	714	451		92
William Mouw	0.09%	1111	451		24
Wyndham Clark	0.26%	385	131		42
Xander Schauffele	3.04%	33	29		3
Zach Bauchou	0.08%	1250	751		50
Zecheng Dou	0.12%	833	451		98

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.45%	222	301	0.10%	114	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Aaron Rai	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	68	-0.1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Schenk	0.07%	1429	301		107
Adam Scott	2.01%	50	76	0.70%	40	-0.7	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akshay Bhatia	0.84%	119	51		30
Aldrich Potgieter	0.13%	769	151		68
Alex Noren	0.75%	133	71		30
Alex Smalley	0.62%	161	126		17
Andrew Novak	0.55%	182	161		82
Andrew Putnam	0.54%	185	226	0.10%	17	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Smotherman	0.57%	175	151		1
Ben Griffin	1.67%	60	76	0.40%	17	-0.4	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Campbell	0.17%	588	351		68
Brian Harman	0.33%	303	141		82
Brooks Koepka	0.41%	244	61		40
Bud Cauley	0.31%	323	101		17
Cam Davis	0.04%	2500	276		107
Cameron Young	2.32%	43	51	0.40%	6	-0.4	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Ramey	0.44%	227	201		40
Chandler Phillips	0.13%	769	226		118
Chris Gotterup	1.57%	64	56		30
Chris Kirk	0.66%	152	151		30
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.65%	154	81		52
Collin Morikawa	1.48%	68	34
Corey Conners	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	10	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Daniel Berger	0.73%	137	56		40
Danny Walker	0.12%	833	251		30
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	226		121
Davis Thompson	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	52	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Denny McCarthy	0.93%	108	161	0.30%	99	-0.3	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emiliano Grillo	0.23%	435	161		121
Eric Cole	0.27%	370	151		52
Erik Van Rooyen	0.22%	455	251		107
Garrick Higgo	0.23%	435	151		99
Gary Woodland	0.16%	625	176		82
Haotong Li	0.34%	294	126		68
Harris English	0.98%	102	61		52
Harry Hall	1.23%	81	81		99
Hideki Matsuyama	2.34%	43	51	0.40%	17	-0.4	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.J. Spaun	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	30	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
J.T. Poston	0.33%	303	111		99
Jacob Bridgeman	1.58%	63	76	0.30%	17	-0.3	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake Knapp	1.01%	99	51		82
Jason Day	1.41%	71	101	0.40%	17	-0.4	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.10%	1000	201		82
Joe Highsmith	0.15%	667	401		17
Joel Dahmen	0.60%	167	111		107
Johnny Keefer	0.25%	400	151		99
Jordan Smith	0.51%	196	111		116
Jordan Spieth	1.96%	51	86	0.80%	52	-0.8	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Rose	1.01%	99	71		40
Justin Thomas	0.19%	526	81		6
Karl Vilips	0.28%	357	251		52
Keegan Bradley	1.33%	75	101	0.30%	107	-0.3	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keith Mitchell	1.02%	98	91		40
Kevin Roy	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	82	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Yu	0.19%	526	161		118
Kristoffer Reitan	0.34%	294	101		82
Kurt Kitayama	1.71%	58	71	0.30%	68	-0.3	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Hodges	0.46%	217	176		1
Lucas Glover	0.35%	286	141		17
Ludvig Aberg	1.14%	88	34		10
Mac Meissner	0.34%	294	101		52
Mackenzie Hughes	0.33%	303	131		68
Marco Penge	0.48%	208	111		82
Mark Hubbard	0.17%	588	181		68
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.10%	91	46		17
Matt McCarty	0.54%	185	91		82
Matthieu Pavon	0.37%	270	251		82
Matti Schmid	0.60%	167	176		17
Maverick McNealy	0.88%	114	67		1
Max Greyserman	0.42%	238	101		52
Max Homa	0.43%	233	101		30
Max McGreevy	0.61%	164	111		40
Michael Brennan	0.28%	357	126		40
Michael Kim	0.66%	152	161		52
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.43%	233	81		68
Min Woo Lee	2.25%	44	56	0.50%	40	-0.5	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Taylor	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	68	-0.2	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria	0.79%	127	101		68
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.32%	76	76		30
Patrick Cantlay	0.94%	106	67		52
Patrick Rodgers	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	17	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire	0.10%	1000	251		118
Pierceson Coody	0.83%	120	91		82
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.45%	222	91		82
Rickie Fowler	2.18%	46	61	0.50%	17	-0.5	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricky Castillo	0.45%	222	91		30
Rico Hoey	0.22%	455	126		107
Robert MacIntyre	0.93%	108	61		40
Rory McIlroy	4.00%	25	36	1.30%	68	-1.3	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Russell Henley	1.73%	58	46		6
Ryan Fox	1.07%	93	111	0.20%			Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Gerard	0.50%	200	67		52
Ryo Hisatsune	0.70%	143	101		30
Sahith Theegala	1.16%	86	81		1
Sam Burns	1.51%	66	81	0.30%	99	-0.3	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	0.82%	122	126		40
Sami Valimaki	0.25%	400	151		114
Scottie Scheffler	4.56%	22	18		40
Seamus Power	0.28%	357	141		68
Seonghyeon Kim	0.36%	278	226		82
Sepp Straka	1.44%	69	56		1
Shane Lowry	2.09%	48	71	0.70%	99	-0.7	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Si Woo Kim	1.30%	77	36		52
Stephan Jaeger	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	82	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steven Fisk	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	82	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.46%	217	226		52
Sungjae Im	0.26%	385	101		82
Takumi Kanaya	0.53%	189	251	0.10%	52	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore	0.64%	156	161		6
Taylor Pendrith	0.47%	213	101		68
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.45%	222	101		116
Tom Hoge	0.51%	196	151		52
Tommy Fleetwood	1.59%	63	46		10
Tony Finau	0.28%	357	111		10
Viktor Hovland	1.21%	83	46		10
Vince Whaley	0.26%	385	176		107
William Mouw	0.48%	208	181		10
Wyndham Clark	0.77%	130	111		52
Xander Schauffele	2.72%	37	46	0.60%	10	-0.6	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	68	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zecheng Dou	0.20%	500	176		99

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	16.69%	6	8	4.80%	22	-2	VirginBet: 7/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Russell Henley	3.75%	27	31	0.50%	13	-2	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Rickie Fowler	2.13%	47	56	0.40%	42	-2	Skybet: 35/1, 12pl, 1/5
FRL: Rory McIlroy	4.00%	25	36	1.30%	68	-1	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jordan Spieth	1.96%	51	86	0.80%	52	-1	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Shane Lowry	2.09%	48	71	0.70%	99	-1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Adam Scott	2.01%	50	76	0.70%	40	-1	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Xander Schauffele	2.72%	37	46	0.60%	10	-1	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Min Woo Lee	2.25%	44	56	0.50%	40	-1	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.