Simulation Results: The Players Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 1.01% 99 71 14
Adam Hadwin 0.38% 263 301 96
Adam Schenk 0.17% 588 501 82
Adam Scott 0.72% 139 101 96
Adam Svensson 0.20% 500 301 131
Akshay Bhatia 0.75% 133 101 3
Aldrich Potgieter 0.07% 1429 501 82
Alejandro Tosti 0.05% 2000 1001 82
Alex Smalley 0.40% 250 151 14
Andrew Novak 0.41% 244 201 107
Andrew Putnam 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 116 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat 0.40% 250 151 61
Beau Hossler 0.38% 263 251 50
Ben Griffin 0.82% 122 111 82
Ben Kohles 0.15% 667 351 73
Ben Silverman 0.18% 556 601 133
Billy Horschel 0.39% 256 176 42
Brian Campbell 0.17% 588 301 82
Brian Harman 0.78% 128 101 125
Brice Garnett 0.19% 526 351 116
Bud Cauley 0.22% 455 501 6
Byeong Hun An 0.56% 179 151 52
C.T. Pan 0.13% 769 401 69
Cam Davis 0.34% 294 201 141
Cameron Young 0.35% 286 201 61
Camilo Villegas 0.04% 2500 2501 54
Carson Young 0.16% 625 501 54
Chad Ramey 0.16% 625 501 107
Chan Kim 0.34% 294 276 96
Chandler Phillips 0.16% 625 751 61
Charley Hoffman 0.27% 370 401 54
Chris Gotterup 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 96 -0.1 Spreadex: 1000/1, 7pl, 1/5
Chris Kirk 0.30% 333 251 42
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.82% 122 126 107
Collin Morikawa 4.05% 25 15 10
Corey Conners 1.58% 63 56 6
Daniel Berger 1.03% 97 61 20
David Lipsky 0.05% 2000 1251 73
David Skinns 0.02% 5000 2501 82
Davis Riley 0.06% 1667 601 38
Davis Thompson 0.50% 200 126 10
Denny McCarthy 1.07% 93 81 14
Doug Ghim 0.44% 227 126 116
Emiliano Grillo 0.09% 1111 751 67
Eric Cole 0.21% 476 301 116
Erik Van Rooyen 0.24% 417 351 82
Frankie Capan 0.09% 1111 1001 138
Gary Woodland 0.23% 435 301 141
Greyson Sigg 0.18% 556 301 107
Harris English 0.43% 233 201 30
Harry Hall 0.26% 385 251 82
Hayden Springer 0.13% 769 751 42
Henrik Norlander 0.19% 526 401 73
Hideki Matsuyama 1.90% 53 31 73
Isaiah Salinda 0.21% 476 351 68
J.J. Spaun 0.61% 164 101 2
J.T. Poston 0.61% 164 126 33
Jackson Suber 0.05% 2000 751 107
Jacob Bridgeman 0.45% 222 201 50
Jake Knapp 0.24% 417 201 12
Jason Day 1.11% 90 61
Jesper Svensson 0.15% 667 401 42
Jhonattan Vegas 0.32% 313 301 60
Joe Highsmith 0.27% 370 161 20
Joel Dahmen 0.20% 500 201 54
Jordan Spieth 0.78% 128 81 59
Justin Lower 0.21% 476 501 38
Justin Rose 0.57% 175 126 73
Justin Thomas 2.44% 41 26 33
Karl Vilips 0.17% 588 201 125
Keegan Bradley 1.51% 66 61 20
Keith Mitchell 0.47% 213 151 82
Kevin Roy 0.25% 400 251 107
Kevin Yu 0.20% 500 251 116
Kris Ventura 0.16% 625 501 125
Kurt Kitayama 0.42% 238 151 33
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.11% 909 751 116
Lanto Griffin 0.11% 909 601 125
Laurie Canter 0.53% 189 161 73
Lucas Glover 0.49% 204 151 3
Ludvig Aberg 2.42% 41 17 96
Luke List 0.12% 833 1001 124
Mac Meissner 0.14% 714 601 42
Mackenzie Hughes 0.40% 250 251 82
Mark Hubbard 0.14% 714 501 133
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.78% 128 111 125
Matt Kuchar 0.27% 370 351 42
Matt McCarty 0.12% 833 601 20
Matthieu Pavon 0.06% 1667 601 54
Matti Schmid 0.21% 476 301 96
Maverick McNealy 0.81% 123 71 138
Max Greyserman 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 133 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 7pl, 1/5
Max Homa 0.31% 323 251 125
Max McGreevy 0.15% 667 201 20
Michael Kim 1.03% 97 81 73
Min Woo Lee 0.71% 141 101 20
Nate Lashley 0.04% 2500 1251 82
Nick Dunlap 0.19% 526 301 140
Nick Taylor 0.51% 196 111 96
Nico Echavarria 0.15% 667 351 107
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.36% 278 201 96
Patrick Cantlay 2.87% 35 41 0.40% 12 -0.4 Paddy Power: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn 0.25% 400 401 82
Patrick Rodgers 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 116 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire 0.12% 833 1001 96
Peter Malnati 0.03% 3333 2501 73
Rafael Campos 0.03% 3333 3001 141
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.42% 238 151 133
Rickie Fowler 0.54% 185 151 71
Rico Hoey 0.25% 400 401 33
Robert MacIntyre 1.00% 100 67 9
Rory McIlroy 7.21% 14 15 0.60% 1 3.96 Paddy Power: 11/1, 10pl, 1/5
Russell Henley 3.65% 27 36 0.90% 30 -0.9 Paddy Power: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox 0.23% 435 401 20
Ryan Gerard 0.25% 400 201 42
Ryo Hisatsune 0.18% 556 501 96
Sahith Theegala 0.57% 175 151 52
Sam Burns 1.19% 84 81 82
Sam Ryder 0.17% 588 401 14
Sam Stevens 0.49% 204 201 96
Sami Valimaki 0.10% 1000 1001 69
Scottie Scheffler 12.85% 7.8 6.5 20
Seamus Power 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 107 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka 1.60% 63 46 14
Shane Lowry 1.82% 55 41 20
Si Woo Kim 1.25% 80 67 38
Stephan Jaeger 0.44% 227 201 20
Sungjae Im 1.57% 64 67 0.10% 61 -0.1 Betfair: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore 0.44% 227 201 33
Taylor Pendrith 0.74% 135 101 38
Thomas Detry 0.55% 182 126 107
Tom Hoge 0.29% 345 276 3
Tom Kim 0.59% 169 81 42
Tommy Fleetwood 2.68% 37 29 14
Tony Finau 1.39% 72 67 133
Trey Mullinax 0.11% 909 1001 61
Victor Perez 0.32% 313 301
Viktor Hovland 0.85% 118 81 116
Vince Whaley 0.23% 435 751 0.10% 82 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Will Chandler 0.01% 10000 2501 61
Will Gordon 0.11% 909 1001 131
Will Zalatoris 0.63% 159 81 30
Wyndham Clark 0.97% 103 81 144
Xander Schauffele 2.80% 36 29 72

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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