Simulation Results: Phoenix Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Hadwin 0.42% 238 201 9
Adam Schenk 0.21% 476 276 25
Adam Svensson 0.28% 357 251 36
Akshay Bhatia 0.66% 152 71 32
Alex Smalley 0.26% 385 176 21
Andrew Novak 0.69% 145 91 78
Andrew Putnam 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 25 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat 0.70% 143 81 95
Beau Hossler 0.69% 145 81 32
Ben Griffin 0.54% 185 126 36
Ben Kohles 0.11% 909 501 78
Ben Martin 0.12% 833 601 78
Ben Silverman 0.15% 667 501 16
Billy Horschel 1.21% 83 61 95
Brandt Snedeker 0.07% 1429 751 66
Brendon Todd 0.06% 1667 1001 130
Brian Harman 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 25 -0.1 Betfair: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brice Garnett 0.09% 1111 601 67
Bud Cauley 0.23% 435 226 21
Byeong Hun An 1.11% 90 46 73
C.T. Pan 0.26% 385 201 57
Cameron Young 0.63% 159 71 12
Camilo Villegas 0.02% 5000 2501 44
Carson Young 0.16% 625 351 57
Chad Ramey 0.16% 625 501 122
Chan Kim 0.31% 323 201 115
Chandler Phillips 0.17% 588 501 49
Charley Hoffman 0.58% 172 101 115
Chez Reavie 0.03% 3333 1001 103
Chris Gotterup 0.20% 500 351 88
Chris Kirk 0.54% 185 151 115
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 4 2.9 Paddy Power: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Corey Conners 1.68% 60 46 74
Daniel Berger 0.33% 303 126 2
David Lipsky 0.10% 1000 601 108
David Skinns 0.02% 5000 2001 49
Davis Riley 0.02% 5000 1001 122
Davis Thompson 0.66% 152 81 36
Denny McCarthy 1.08% 93 86 16
Doug Ghim 0.42% 238 131 49
Emiliano Grillo 0.11% 909 501 76
Eric Cole 0.52% 192 126 122
Erik Van Rooyen 0.29% 345 251 95
Frankie Capan 0.21% 476 201 126
Gary Woodland 0.46% 217 101 21
Greyson Sigg 0.22% 455 301 32
Harry Hall 0.56% 179 91 78
Hayden Springer 0.31% 323 251 115
Henrik Norlander 0.14% 714 501 108
Hideki Matsuyama 4.02% 25 17 25
J.J. Spaun 0.65% 154 71 131
J.T. Poston 0.95% 105 67 16
Jacob Bridgeman 0.31% 323 201 95
Jake Knapp 0.15% 667 176 44
Jesse Mueller 0.00% 10000 4001 127
Joe Highsmith 0.19% 526 251 88
Joel Dahmen 0.14% 714 301 95
Jordan Spieth 0.34% 294 101 4
Jose Luis Ballester 0.01% 10000 501 115
Justin Thomas 4.42% 23 15 6
Keith Mitchell 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 25 -0.1 Betfair: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Kevin Kisner 0.00% 10000 2501 95
Kevin Streelman 0.10% 1000 601 71
Kevin Yu 0.18% 556 251 16
Kris Ventura 0.12% 833 301 49
Kurt Kitayama 0.71% 141 71 49
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.28% 357 226 67
Lanto Griffin 0.14% 714 351 78
Lee Hodges 0.54% 185 111 57
Lucas Glover 0.90% 111 81 88
Luke Clanton 1.82% 55 67 0.30% 78 -0.3 Skybet: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Luke List 0.13% 769 501 36
Mac Meissner 0.32% 313 201 88
Mackenzie Hughes 0.58% 172 176 36
Mark Hubbard 0.37% 270 201 103
Matt Fitzpatrick 1.44% 69 61 78
Matt Kuchar 0.31% 323 81
Matt McCarty 0.12% 833 301 108
Matt Wallace 0.22% 455 176 44
Matthieu Pavon 0.08% 1250 501 63
Matti Schmid 0.17% 588 251 115
Maverick McNealy 1.01% 99 61 9
Max Greyserman 0.95% 105 71 49
Max Homa 1.01% 99 101 108
Michael Kim 0.23% 435 301 2
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.26% 385 151 74
Min Woo Lee 0.71% 141 71 12
Nate Lashley 0.18% 556 501 88
Nick Dunlap 0.30% 333 151 57
Nick Hardy 0.10% 1000 601 78
Nick Taylor 0.75% 133 61 25
Nico Echavarria 0.28% 357 176 103
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.12% 833 201 36
Patrick Fishburn 0.34% 294 176 88
Patrick Rodgers 0.69% 145 151 122
Patton Kizzire 0.12% 833 501 95
Paul Waring 0.09% 1111 501 108
Peter Malnati 0.02% 5000 2501 49
Rafael Campos 0.03% 3333 2501 95
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.77% 130 56 12
Rickie Fowler 0.79% 127 71 131
Rico Hoey 0.25% 400 226 103
Robert MacIntyre 0.87% 115 56 6
Ryan Fox 0.45% 222 151 63
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 1001 77
Ryo Hisatsune 0.12% 833 501 78
Sahith Theegala 1.24% 81 46 57
Sam Burns 3.78% 26 23 49
Sam Ryder 0.20% 500 251 36
Sam Stevens 0.59% 169 91 44
Sami Valimaki 0.09% 1111 601 103
Scottie Scheffler 29.64% 3.4 3.8 4.50% 25 -4.5 Ladbrokes: 2.5/1, 10pl, 1/5
Seamus Power 0.84% 119 126 36
Sepp Straka 1.82% 55 41 15
Si Woo Kim 1.30% 77 61 21
Sungjae Im 2.94% 34 26 57
Taylor Montgomery 0.05% 2000 1001 69
Taylor Moore 0.54% 185 126 9
Thomas Detry 0.76% 132 111 1
Thriston Lawrence 0.12% 833 251 128
Tom Hoge 1.31% 76 81 0.10% 128 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Tom Kim 1.30% 77 31 44
Trey Mullinax 0.08% 1250 501 32
Victor Perez 0.39% 256 201 108
Vince Whaley 0.16% 625 351 115
Vincent Norrman 0.15% 667 351 71
Webb Simpson 0.19% 526 251 78
Will Gordon 0.18% 556 401 69
Wyndham Clark 1.26% 79 81 16

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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