Simulation Results: Phoenix Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.06%	1667	1001		28
Adam Schenk	0.16%	625	451		115
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.25%	400	351		74
Adrien Saddier	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	60	-0.1	10Bet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Akshay Bhatia	0.57%	175	151		3
Aldrich Potgieter	0.15%	667	351		110
Alejandro Tosti	0.02%	5000	801		118
Alex Smalley	0.49%	204	176		35
Andrew Novak	0.81%	123	101		115
Austin Eckroat	0.36%	278	301		86
Austin Smotherman	0.15%	667	351		103
Ben Griffin	2.50%	40	36		28
Billy Horschel	0.37%	270	251		95
Brian Campbell	0.07%	1429	1501		54
Brian Harman	0.76%	132	226	0.30%	110	-0.3	10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brice Garnett	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	103	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brooks Koepka	0.59%	169	51		86
Bud Cauley	0.53%	189	176		68
Cam Davis	0.06%	1667	801		73
Cameron Young	3.32%	30	23		41
Chad Ramey	0.28%	357	351		48
Chandler Blanchet	0.13%	769	501		95
Chandler Phillips	0.34%	294	451	0.10%	66	-0.1	10Bet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Charley Hoffman	0.03%	3333	1001		95
Chris Gotterup	1.49%	67	46		1
Chris Kirk	0.66%	152	201	0.20%	79	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.50%	67	91	0.40%	79	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.05%	2000	1001		48
Collin Morikawa	0.95%	105	51		54
Corey Conners	1.36%	74	61		86
Daniel Berger	1.00%	100	71		16
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.69%	145	161	0.10%	86	-0.1	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Walker	0.12%	833	1251		118
Davis Chatfield	0.09%	1111	1001		103
Davis Riley	0.20%	500	501		115
Davis Thompson	1.03%	97	91		64
Emiliano Grillo	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	74	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez	0.12%	833	751		123
Eric Cole	0.64%	156	181	0.10%	120	-0.1	Spreadex: 180/1, 5pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen	0.15%	667	601		86
Garrick Higgo	0.66%	152	101		86
Gary Woodland	0.33%	303	226		64
Hank Lebioda	0.09%	1111	1501		68
Haotong Li	0.87%	115	101		95
Harris English	1.90%	53	41		28
Harry Hall	1.57%	64	71	0.20%	110	-0.2	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama	1.91%	52	29		2
J.J. Spaun	1.31%	76	46
J.T. Poston	1.23%	81	76		35
Jacob Bridgeman	0.86%	116	126	0.10%	18	-0.1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake Knapp	1.41%	71	51		8
Jeffrey Kang	0.04%	2500	3001		86
Joe Highsmith	0.06%	1667	2001		54
Joel Dahmen	0.43%	233	181		74
John Parry	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	35	-0.1	10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
John VanDerLaan	0.12%	833	1001		60
Johnny Keefer	0.66%	152	131		41
Jordan Smith	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	16	-0.2	10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Spieth	1.56%	64	56		95
Karl Vilips	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	79	-0.1	Betfred: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Keita Nakajima	0.28%	357	451	0.10%	71	-0.1	Betway: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keith Mitchell	1.06%	94	86		41
Kensei Hirata	0.11%	909	1251		54
Kevin Roy	0.27%	370	401		13
Kristoffer Reitan	0.31%	323	201		41
Kurt Kitayama	1.02%	98	71		24
Mac Meissner	0.65%	154	161		18
Mackenzie Hughes	0.32%	313	276		28
Marco Penge	0.27%	370	111		103
Mark Hubbard	0.23%	435	501		79
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.69%	59	46		9
Matt McCarty	1.39%	72	71		86
Matthieu Pavon	0.30%	333	451	0.10%	95	-0.1	10Bet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	0.26%	385	276		103
Maverick McNealy	2.22%	45	36		13
Max Greyserman	0.63%	159	151		74
Max Homa	0.68%	147	126		66
Max McGreevy	0.53%	189	126		48
Michael Brennan	0.31%	323	226		48
Michael Kim	0.70%	143	131		18
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.79%	127	67		3
Min Woo Lee	1.14%	88	71		28
Neal Shipley	0.15%	667	501		68
Nick Taylor	1.19%	84	67		28
Nico Echavarria	0.24%	417	226		103
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.88%	114	76		3
Patrick Rodgers	0.98%	102	111	0.10%	60	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire	0.15%	667	751		72
Peter Malnati	0.05%	2000	2501		79
Pierceson Coody	0.84%	119	67		10
Pontus Nyholm	0.03%	3333	1251		103
Rafael Campos	0.06%	1667	2501		79
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.18%	85	67		24
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	41	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rickie Fowler	2.11%	47	46		18
Rico Hoey	0.44%	227	151		24
Ryan Fox	0.40%	250	226		24
Ryo Hisatsune	0.53%	189	161		10
Sahith Theegala	0.98%	102	56		18
Sam Burns	2.76%	36	36		110
Sam Stevens	0.86%	116	91		35
Sami Valimaki	0.55%	182	226	0.10%	41	-0.1	Priced Up: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scottie Scheffler	16.05%	6.2	3.4		3
Seonghyeon Kim	0.31%	323	201		54
Sepp Straka	0.39%	256	67		18
Seungtaek Lee	0.05%	2000	1001		48
Si Woo Kim	2.85%	35	26		3
Stephan Jaeger	0.71%	141	161	0.10%	28	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.18%	556	601		54
Takumi Kanaya	0.43%	233	401	0.20%	60	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Thomas Avant	0.00%	10000	5001		122
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.02%	98	111	0.10%	74	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Tom Hoge	0.35%	286	226		86
Tom Kim	0.41%	244	251		35
Tony Finau	0.55%	182	126		95
Viktor Hovland	2.35%	43	41		10
Vince Whaley	0.42%	238	251		79
Webb Simpson	0.26%	385	251		114
William Mouw	0.28%	357	301		121
Wyndham Clark	0.85%	118	67		35
Xander Schauffele	2.15%	47	19		41
Zach Bauchou	0.17%	588	601		48
Zecheng Dou	0.20%	500	501		13

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.21%	476	301		25
Adam Schenk	0.36%	278	176		89
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.16%	625	126		38
Adrien Saddier	0.14%	714	151		14
Akshay Bhatia	0.79%	127	101		14
Aldrich Potgieter	0.26%	385	126		89
Alejandro Tosti	0.02%	5000	251		115
Alex Smalley	0.72%	139	101		105
Andrew Novak	1.10%	91	91		118
Austin Eckroat	0.17%	588	126		105
Austin Smotherman	0.11%	909	151		38
Ben Griffin	2.78%	36	46	0.60%	55	-0.6	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5
Billy Horschel	0.22%	455	111		115
Brian Campbell	0.19%	526	351		14
Brian Harman	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	105	-0.2	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brice Garnett	0.10%	1000	226		105
Brooks Koepka	0.87%	115	51		115
Bud Cauley	0.31%	323	111		38
Cam Davis	0.15%	667	351		76
Cameron Young	3.30%	30	36	0.50%	38	-0.5	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Chad Ramey	0.53%	189	126		55
Chandler Blanchet	0.10%	1000	201		105
Chandler Phillips	0.61%	164	151		25
Charley Hoffman	0.03%	3333	351		89
Chris Gotterup	1.80%	56	51		1
Chris Kirk	0.38%	263	126		25
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.72%	139	81		55
Christo Lamprecht	0.04%	2500	351		7
Collin Morikawa	1.27%	79	51		76
Corey Conners	1.72%	58	61	0.10%	76	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Daniel Berger	0.55%	182	67		7
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	89	-0.1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Walker	0.08%	1250	251		89
Davis Chatfield	0.20%	500	251		105
Davis Riley	0.37%	270	151		89
Davis Thompson	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	25	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emiliano Grillo	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	38	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez	0.09%	1111	226		118
Eric Cole	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	76	-0.2	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	0.08%	1250	176		55
Garrick Higgo	0.32%	313	81		118
Gary Woodland	0.65%	154	151		25
Hank Lebioda	0.06%	1667	301		38
Haotong Li	0.43%	233	81		55
Harris English	2.30%	43	56	0.50%	38	-0.5	Skybet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/5
Harry Hall	1.88%	53	67	0.40%	76	-0.4	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama	2.28%	44	41		14
J.J. Spaun	0.63%	159	51
J.T. Poston	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	105	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jacob Bridgeman	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	55	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jake Knapp	0.67%	149	51		7
Jeffrey Kang	0.04%	2500	351		55
Joe Highsmith	0.16%	625	301		38
Joel Dahmen	0.70%	143	101		55
John Parry	0.29%	345	111		25
John VanDerLaan	0.31%	323	251		14
Johnny Keefer	0.36%	278	91		25
Jordan Smith	0.32%	313	101		38
Jordan Spieth	1.94%	52	56	0.20%	38	-0.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/5
Karl Vilips	0.52%	192	151		89
Keita Nakajima	0.56%	179	151		76
Keith Mitchell	1.45%	69	67		14
Kensei Hirata	0.26%	385	251		14
Kevin Roy	0.16%	625	176		7
Kristoffer Reitan	0.53%	189	101		38
Kurt Kitayama	1.31%	76	71		25
Mac Meissner	0.94%	106	91		55
Mackenzie Hughes	0.20%	500	126		14
Marco Penge	0.51%	196	86		55
Mark Hubbard	0.12%	833	176		25
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.04%	49	51	0.10%	2	0.575	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt McCarty	0.63%	159	61		105
Matthieu Pavon	0.50%	200	151		89
Matti Schmid	0.18%	556	126		122
Maverick McNealy	0.98%	102	51		7
Max Greyserman	0.33%	303	101		55
Max Homa	0.99%	101	81		25
Max McGreevy	0.28%	357	91		7
Michael Brennan	0.58%	172	101		38
Michael Kim	0.33%	303	111		55
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.43%	233	67		3
Min Woo Lee	1.34%	75	67		55
Neal Shipley	0.10%	1000	226		25
Nick Taylor	1.52%	66	67		55
Nico Echavarria	0.14%	714	101		89
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.47%	213	71		3
Patrick Rodgers	1.21%	83	86		76
Patton Kizzire	0.11%	909	226		76
Peter Malnati	0.15%	667	351		89
Pierceson Coody	0.44%	227	67		3
Pontus Nyholm	0.02%	5000	351		105
Rafael Campos	0.15%	667	401		38
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.61%	164	67		14
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	7	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rickie Fowler	2.42%	41	61	0.80%	55	-0.8	Skybet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rico Hoey	0.68%	147	101		55
Ryan Fox	0.67%	149	126		25
Ryo Hisatsune	0.28%	357	111		14
Sahith Theegala	0.46%	217	56		38
Sam Burns	1.29%	78	41		76
Sam Stevens	1.14%	88	81		3
Sami Valimaki	0.29%	345	111		38
Scottie Scheffler	12.12%	8.3	12	4.10%	89	-4.1	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim	0.57%	175	101		38
Sepp Straka	0.72%	139	67		55
Seungtaek Lee	0.12%	833	351		55
Si Woo Kim	2.99%	33	46	0.80%	89	-0.8	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephan Jaeger	1.06%	94	101	0.10%	38	-0.1	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.12%	833	176		105
Takumi Kanaya	0.71%	141	151		55
Thomas Avant	0.00%	10000	601		123
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	76	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom Hoge	0.53%	189	126		55
Tom Kim	0.71%	141	126		89
Tony Finau	0.82%	122	91		89
Viktor Hovland	2.63%	38	46	0.50%	25	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5
Vince Whaley	0.23%	435	151		76
Webb Simpson	0.15%	667	151		76
William Mouw	0.45%	222	151		118
Wyndham Clark	1.25%	80	67		89
Xander Schauffele	2.37%	42	36		55
Zach Bauchou	0.10%	1000	176		14
Zecheng Dou	0.38%	263	176		76

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.50%	67	91	0.40%	79	-2	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Brian Harman	0.76%	132	226	0.30%	110	-2	10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Harry Hall	1.57%	64	71	0.20%	110	-2	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	12.12%	8.3	12	4.10%	89	-1	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Si Woo Kim	2.99%	33	46	0.80%	89	-1	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Rickie Fowler	2.42%	41	61	0.80%	55	-1	Skybet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ben Griffin	2.78%	36	46	0.60%	115	-1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Cameron Young	3.30%	30	36	0.50%	105	-1	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Viktor Hovland	2.63%	38	46	0.50%	118	-1	Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.