Simulation Results: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.58%	172	126		73
Adam Schenk	0.04%	2500	1251		77
Akshay Bhatia	0.69%	145	81		6
Aldrich Potgieter	0.05%	2000	351		60
Alex Noren	0.49%	204	101		29
Alex Smalley	0.26%	385	176		19
Andrew Novak	0.24%	417	151		48
Ben Griffin	2.28%	44	41		37
Billy Horschel	0.17%	588	376		48
Brian Campbell	0.04%	2500	751		78
Brian Harman	0.32%	313	251		19
Bud Cauley	0.23%	435	251		37
Cameron Young	1.88%	53	41		55
Chris Gotterup	1.46%	68	34		37
Chris Kirk	0.34%	294	251		52
Collin Morikawa	1.35%	74	67		1
Corey Conners	0.99%	101	91		70
Daniel Berger	0.85%	118	51		75
Denny McCarthy	0.80%	125	126		55
Emiliano Grillo	0.32%	313	251		64
Garrick Higgo	0.33%	303	151		60
Harris English	1.67%	60	61		24
Harry Hall	0.80%	125	81		24
Hideki Matsuyama	2.24%	45	34		8
J.J. Spaun	0.96%	104	56		45
J.T. Poston	0.92%	109	91		37
Jacob Bridgeman	0.70%	143	101		8
Jake Knapp	1.54%	65	36		8
Jason Day	1.91%	52	46		24
Jhonattan Vegas	0.03%	3333	1001		78
Joe Highsmith	0.02%	5000	1251		75
Jordan Spieth	0.89%	112	81		29
Justin Rose	1.66%	60	29		37
Keegan Bradley	1.45%	69	91	0.40%	29	-0.4	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keith Mitchell	0.61%	164	111		52
Kevin Yu	0.24%	417	226		70
Kurt Kitayama	0.81%	123	71		48
Lucas Glover	0.23%	435	251		64
Ludvig Aberg	1.19%	84	41		37
Mackenzie Hughes	0.23%	435	226		34
Marco Penge	0.12%	833	201		64
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.88%	53	41		14
Matt McCarty	0.80%	125	101		67
Matti Schmid	0.12%	833	351		73
Maverick McNealy	1.97%	51	36		29
Max Greyserman	0.33%	303	151		37
Max McGreevy	0.26%	385	151		29
Michael Kim	0.59%	169	101		72
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.83%	120	41		78
Min Woo Lee	0.83%	120	67		2
Nick Taylor	0.80%	125	91		24
Nico Echavarria	0.10%	1000	351		8
Patrick Cantlay	2.78%	36	41	0.30%	14	-0.3	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Rodgers	0.42%	238	151		52
Pierceson Coody	0.59%	169	67		48
Rickie Fowler	2.13%	47	71	0.70%	19	-0.7	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rico Hoey	0.33%	303	151		67
Robert MacIntyre	1.26%	79	41		37
Rory McIlroy	3.54%	28	15		14
Russell Henley	3.20%	31	41	0.80%	19	-0.8	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.29%	345	181		24
Ryan Gerard	0.82%	122	71		45
Ryo Hisatsune	0.34%	294	151		8
Sahith Theegala	0.74%	135	81		60
Sam Burns	1.70%	59	61	0.10%	6	-0.1	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Stevens	0.62%	161	91		55
Sami Valimaki	0.33%	303	226		34
Scottie Scheffler	24.88%	4	4.2	1.40%	4	-0.315	Boyle Sports: 2.75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka	0.59%	169	61		2
Shane Lowry	1.08%	93	56		8
Si Woo Kim	3.48%	29	26		45
Stephan Jaeger	0.54%	185	151		67
Steven Fisk	0.15%	667	601		60
Taylor Pendrith	0.61%	164	81		34
Tom Hoge	0.15%	667	201		14
Tommy Fleetwood	2.75%	36	26		4
Tony Finau	0.23%	435	251		18
Viktor Hovland	3.11%	32	31		58
Wyndham Clark	0.70%	143	91		58
Xander Schauffele	2.22%	45	29		19

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	24.88%	4	4.2	1.40%	4	-0.45	Boyle Sports: 2.75/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Russell Henley	3.20%	31	41	0.80%	19	-2	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Rickie Fowler	2.13%	47	71	0.70%	19	-2	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.