Simulation Results: PGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.37%	270	226		1
Adam Schenk	0.00%	10000	1001		96
Adam Scott	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Adrien Saddier	0.07%	1429	1001		138
Akshay Bhatia	0.66%	152	101		83
Aldrich Potgieter	0.09%	1111	351		35
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.50%	200	126		75
Alex Noren	0.92%	109	176	0.40%	26	-0.4	Priced Up: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley	0.46%	217	151		2
Andrew Novak	0.21%	476	301		26
Andrew Putnam	0.42%	238	401	0.20%	55	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Andy Sullivan	0.02%	5000	1251		83
Angel Ayora	0.22%	455	351		96
Austin Hurt	0.00%	10000	5001		146
Austin Smotherman	0.12%	833	501		112
Ben Griffin	0.90%	111	111		14
Ben Kern	0.00%	10000	5001		80
Ben Polland	0.00%	10000	5001		96
Bernd Wiesberger	0.12%	833	401		119
Billy Horschel	0.07%	1429	501		119
Braden Shattuck	0.00%	10000	5001		150
Brandt Snedeker	0.11%	909	1001		96
Brian Campbell	0.03%	3333	1501		82
Brian Harman	0.41%	244	176		60
Brooks Koepka	0.62%	161	46		55
Bryce Fisher	0.00%	10000	5001		156
Bryson DeChambeau	2.35%	43	26		112
Bud Cauley	0.31%	323	301		26
Cameron Smith	0.11%	909	301		7
Cameron Young	4.04%	25	13		26
Casey Jarvis	0.10%	1000	501		65
Chandler Blanchet	0.05%	2000	1251		44
Chris Gabriele	0.00%	10000	5001		143
Chris Gotterup	1.14%	88	61		10
Chris Kirk	0.12%	833	751		44
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.53%	189	401	0.30%	35	-0.3	Spreadex: 400/1, 7pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa	1.94%	52	46		55
Corey Conners	0.62%	161	151		55
Daniel Berger	0.30%	333	251		35
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.09%	1111	751		75
Daniel Hillier	0.16%	625	351		26
David Lipsky	0.05%	2000	1001		96
David Puig	0.64%	156	126		18
Davis Riley	0.01%	10000	1001		134
Denny McCarthy	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	44	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Derek Berg	0.00%	10000	5001		150
Dustin Johnson	0.20%	500	301		44
Elvis Smylie	0.03%	3333	651		75
Emiliano Grillo	0.10%	1000	1001		119
Francisco Bide	0.00%	10000	5001		146
Garrett Sapp	0.00%	10000	5001		127
Garrick Higgo	0.03%	3333	501		83
Gary Woodland	0.63%	159	101		96
Haotong Li	0.14%	714	301		35
Harris English	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	18	-0.2	VirginBet: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Harry Hall	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	112	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama	0.77%	130	91		26
Ian Holt	0.06%	1667	1001		138
J.J. Spaun	1.24%	81	61		96
J.T. Poston	0.48%	208	351	0.20%	83	-0.2	Spreadex: 350/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jacob Bridgeman	0.54%	185	126		119
Jared Jones	0.00%	10000	5001		143
Jason Day	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	65	-0.1	Priced Up: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Dufner	0.00%	10000	5001		119
Jayden Schaper	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	130	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jesse Droemer	0.00%	10000	5001		153
Jhonattan Vegas	0.04%	2500	751		44
Jimmy Walker	0.00%	10000	4001		83
Joaquin Niemann	0.61%	164	111		18
Joe Highsmith	0.01%	10000	1001		119
John Parry	0.30%	333	501	0.10%	70	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 7pl, 1/5
Johnny Keefer	0.12%	833	501		79
Jon Rahm	5.10%	20	17		2
Jordan Gumberg	0.00%	10000	2001		96
Jordan Smith	0.32%	313	301		138
Jordan Spieth	1.03%	97	81		18
Justin Rose	0.72%	139	56		10
Justin Thomas	0.72%	139	56		4
Kazuki Higa	0.01%	10000	2501		70
Keegan Bradley	0.89%	112	91		96
Keith Mitchell	0.23%	435	226		65
Kota Kaneko	0.07%	1429	1251		83
Kristoffer Reitan	0.57%	175	91		44
Kurt Kitayama	0.93%	108	101		10
Lucas Glover	0.17%	588	601		127
Ludvig Aberg	3.76%	27	21		4
Luke Donald	0.01%	10000	2001		70
Marco Penge	0.10%	1000	201		138
Mark Geddes	0.00%	10000	5001		155
Martin Kaymer	0.02%	5000	2001		35
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.94%	34	26		14
Matt McCarty	0.51%	196	151		134
Matt Wallace	0.34%	294	301		44
Matti Schmid	0.06%	1667	751		4
Maverick McNealy	0.95%	105	101		18
Max Greyserman	0.18%	556	351		14
Max Homa	0.31%	323	251		138
Max McGreevy	0.13%	769	501		96
Michael Block	0.00%	10000	5001		83
Michael Brennan	0.14%	714	301		81
Michael Kartrude	0.00%	10000	3001		153
Michael Kim	0.25%	400	351		44
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.29%	345	176		134
Mikael Lindberg	0.13%	769	451		55
Min Woo Lee	1.34%	75	71		18
Nick Taylor	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	26	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria	0.08%	1250	401		130
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.13%	88	71		44
Padraig Harrington	0.02%	5000	2501		18
Patrick Cantlay	2.56%	39	46	0.40%	35	-0.4	Bet365: 40/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed	0.81%	123	76		10
Patrick Rodgers	0.20%	500	401		112
Paul McClure	0.00%	10000	5001		134
Pierceson Coody	0.41%	244	201		96
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	65	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.14%	714	401		75
Rickie Fowler	1.80%	56	56		60
Ricky Castillo	0.17%	588	451		112
Rico Hoey	0.17%	588	351		60
Robert MacIntyre	1.01%	99	81		83
Rory McIlroy	4.33%	23	10		7
Russell Henley	2.44%	41	61	0.80%	83	-0.8	Bet365: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.30%	333	301		35
Ryan Gerard	0.28%	357	201		70
Ryan Lenahan	0.00%	10000	5001		146
Ryan Vermeer	0.00%	10000	5001		152
Ryo Hisatsune	0.24%	417	251		35
Sahith Theegala	0.31%	323	201		60
Sam Burns	1.57%	64	61		26
Sam Stevens	0.28%	357	251		65
Sami Valimaki	0.14%	714	751		60
Scottie Scheffler	13.78%	7.3	6.5		14
Sepp Straka	0.73%	137	91		96
Shane Lowry	0.83%	120	91		44
Shaun Micheel	0.00%	10000	5001		130
Si Woo Kim	1.52%	66	76	0.20%	35	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger	0.12%	833	501		18
Steven Fisk	0.21%	476	501		119
Stewart Cink	0.24%	417	751	0.10%	96	-0.1	Priced Up: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.23%	435	201		130
Sungjae Im	0.26%	385	151		83
Taylor Pendrith	0.24%	417	251		44
Thomas Detry	0.77%	130	126		83
Timothy Wiseman	0.00%	10000	5001		146
Tom Hoge	0.04%	2500	751		26
Tom McKibbin	0.24%	417	301		112
Tommy Fleetwood	3.67%	27	29	0.20%	83	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 22/1, 10pl, 1/5
Travis Smyth	0.01%	10000	1501		112
Tyler Collet	0.00%	10000	5001		96
Tyrrell Hatton	1.46%	68	56		96
Viktor Hovland	1.44%	69	71		96
William Mouw	0.09%	1111	501		70
Wyndham Clark	0.26%	385	176		83
Xander Schauffele	3.09%	32	21		7
Y.E. Yang	0.01%	10000	5001		127
Zach Haynes	0.00%	10000	5001		143

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.55%	182	126		34
Adam Schenk	0.07%	1429	301		120
Adam Scott	1.12%	89	71		12
Adrien Saddier	0.26%	385	251		120
Akshay Bhatia	0.72%	139	81		49
Aldrich Potgieter	0.30%	333	151		1
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.82%	122	91		67
Alex Noren	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	49	-0.2	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley	0.60%	167	91		1
Andrew Novak	0.37%	270	151		15
Andrew Putnam	0.55%	182	226	0.10%	15	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andy Sullivan	0.15%	667	301		67
Angel Ayora	0.57%	175	151		67
Austin Hurt	0.00%	10000	601		151
Austin Smotherman	0.28%	357	176		67
Ben Griffin	1.12%	89	71		49
Ben Kern	0.00%	10000	501		105
Ben Polland	0.01%	10000	501		93
Bernd Wiesberger	0.26%	385	176		67
Billy Horschel	0.30%	333	176		105
Braden Shattuck	0.01%	10000	501		155
Brandt Snedeker	0.37%	270	201		67
Brian Campbell	0.14%	714	301		67
Brian Harman	0.72%	139	126		34
Brooks Koepka	0.99%	101	51		15
Bryce Fisher	0.00%	10000	601		151
Bryson DeChambeau	1.91%	52	36		135
Bud Cauley	0.60%	167	151		15
Cameron Smith	0.38%	263	151		15
Cameron Young	2.15%	47	29		49
Casey Jarvis	0.26%	385	201		34
Chandler Blanchet	0.18%	556	301		15
Chris Gabriele	0.00%	10000	601		142
Chris Gotterup	1.05%	95	67		67
Chris Kirk	0.35%	286	201		93
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	67	-0.2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa	1.41%	71	56		15
Corey Conners	0.70%	143	111		8
Daniel Berger	0.50%	200	151		105
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.30%	333	251		8
Daniel Hillier	0.44%	227	176		49
David Lipsky	0.18%	556	251		105
David Puig	0.94%	106	91		49
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	251		149
Denny McCarthy	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	49	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Derek Berg	0.00%	10000	751		149
Dustin Johnson	0.36%	278	151		67
Elvis Smylie	0.14%	714	251		67
Emiliano Grillo	0.27%	370	251		135
Francisco Bide	0.00%	10000	501		135
Garrett Sapp	0.00%	10000	751		120
Garrick Higgo	0.19%	526	251		15
Gary Woodland	0.94%	106	81		67
Haotong Li	0.33%	303	176		49
Harris English	1.29%	78	81	0.10%	49	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Hall	1.04%	96	91		67
Hideki Matsuyama	0.85%	118	71		34
Ian Holt	0.29%	345	201		105
J.J. Spaun	1.05%	95	76		34
J.T. Poston	0.62%	161	151		49
Jacob Bridgeman	0.89%	112	91		105
Jared Jones	0.01%	10000	601		154
Jason Day	0.99%	101	81		15
Jason Dufner	0.03%	3333	501		120
Jayden Schaper	0.57%	175	176		120
Jesse Droemer	0.00%	10000	601		142
Jhonattan Vegas	0.26%	385	226		93
Jimmy Walker	0.03%	3333	501		49
Joaquin Niemann	0.95%	105	81		15
Joe Highsmith	0.14%	714	301		93
John Parry	0.43%	233	251		93
Johnny Keefer	0.40%	250	201		67
Jon Rahm	3.18%	31	34	0.20%	15	-0.2	BetMGM: 28/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.07%	1429	401		93
Jordan Smith	0.54%	185	151		120
Jordan Spieth	1.22%	82	71		15
Justin Rose	0.84%	119	61		34
Justin Thomas	0.75%	133	61		15
Kazuki Higa	0.13%	769	401		49
Keegan Bradley	0.90%	111	81		105
Keith Mitchell	0.53%	189	126		93
Kota Kaneko	0.30%	333	301		93
Kristoffer Reitan	1.00%	100	71		49
Kurt Kitayama	0.95%	105	76		34
Lucas Glover	0.48%	208	181		135
Ludvig Aberg	2.67%	37	34		67
Luke Donald	0.06%	1667	501		49
Marco Penge	0.26%	385	101		120
Mark Geddes	0.00%	10000	751		155
Martin Kaymer	0.09%	1111	401		1
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.73%	58	51		34
Matt McCarty	0.85%	118	101		142
Matt Wallace	0.51%	196	151		49
Matti Schmid	0.22%	455	201		15
Maverick McNealy	1.24%	81	81		15
Max Greyserman	0.50%	200	176		8
Max Homa	0.50%	200	151		120
Max McGreevy	0.42%	238	201		135
Michael Block	0.01%	10000	601		34
Michael Brennan	0.41%	244	126		67
Michael Kartrude	0.00%	10000	601		151
Michael Kim	0.59%	169	151		93
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.41%	244	101		142
Mikael Lindberg	0.44%	227	181		49
Min Woo Lee	1.43%	70	67		1
Nick Taylor	0.70%	143	151		15
Nico Echavarria	0.20%	500	176		120
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.31%	76	61		15
Padraig Harrington	0.14%	714	351		105
Patrick Cantlay	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	34	-0.3	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Reed	0.85%	118	81		8
Patrick Rodgers	0.41%	244	176		142
Paul McClure	0.00%	10000	601		120
Pierceson Coody	0.54%	185	151		49
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.65%	154	126		67
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.34%	294	201		67
Rickie Fowler	1.67%	60	56		34
Ricky Castillo	0.38%	263	181		105
Rico Hoey	0.45%	222	151		34
Robert MacIntyre	0.94%	106	81		34
Rory McIlroy	2.80%	36	26		105
Russell Henley	1.55%	65	76	0.20%	67	-0.2	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.65%	154	151		34
Ryan Gerard	0.61%	164	126		15
Ryan Lenahan	0.00%	10000	601		120
Ryan Vermeer	0.00%	10000	601		142
Ryo Hisatsune	0.60%	167	151		1
Sahith Theegala	0.62%	161	111		8
Sam Burns	1.52%	66	67		34
Sam Stevens	0.47%	213	151		15
Sami Valimaki	0.32%	313	201		93
Scottie Scheffler	4.97%	20	19		1
Sepp Straka	0.76%	132	81		93
Shane Lowry	0.86%	116	81		8
Shaun Micheel	0.01%	10000	751		142
Si Woo Kim	1.51%	66	67		49
Stephan Jaeger	0.37%	270	176		1
Steven Fisk	0.41%	244	201		135
Stewart Cink	0.42%	238	176		105
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.40%	250	126		120
Sungjae Im	0.42%	238	81		93
Taylor Pendrith	0.60%	167	151		67
Thomas Detry	1.06%	94	91		67
Timothy Wiseman	0.00%	10000	751		120
Tom Hoge	0.21%	476	226		67
Tom McKibbin	0.50%	200	151		105
Tommy Fleetwood	2.05%	49	51	0.10%	67	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Smyth	0.09%	1111	351		105
Tyler Collet	0.03%	3333	501		120
Tyrrell Hatton	1.57%	64	67	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Viktor Hovland	1.23%	81	67		105
William Mouw	0.31%	323	201		105
Wyndham Clark	0.56%	179	111		120
Xander Schauffele	2.28%	44	36		8
Y.E. Yang	0.10%	1000	501		67
Zach Haynes	0.00%	10000	751		135

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Russell Henley	2.44%	41	61	0.80%	83	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Patrick Cantlay	2.56%	39	46	0.40%	35	-2	Bet365: 40/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Alex Noren	0.92%	109	176	0.40%	26	-2	Priced Up: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Patrick Cantlay	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	34	-1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jon Rahm	3.18%	31	34	0.20%	15	-1	BetMGM: 28/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Russell Henley	1.55%	65	76	0.20%	67	-1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Alex Noren	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	49	-1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	67	-1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	2.05%	49	51	0.10%	67	-1	Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.