Simulation Results: PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 19 -0.1 LiveScoreBet: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Adam Hadwin 0.13% 769 601 137
Adam Scott 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 19 -0.3 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Akshay Bhatia 0.38% 263 126 75
Alex Noren 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 17 -0.2 Skybet: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Andre Chi 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Andrew Novak 0.45% 222 176 118
Austin Eckroat 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 67 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Beau Hossler 0.11% 909 751 19
Ben Griffin 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 8 0.23888888888889 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Bob Sowards 0.00% 10000 5001 132
Bobby Gates 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Brandon Bingaman 0.00% 10000 5001 143
Brian Bergstol 0.00% 10000 5001 149
Brian Campbell 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brian Harman 0.87% 115 176 0.30% 60 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brooks Koepka 0.47% 213 56 124
Bryson DeChambeau 6.55% 15 9 2
Bud Cauley 0.28% 357 301 72
Byeong Hun An 0.49% 204 176 74
Cam Davis 0.14% 714 501 19
Cameron Smith 0.58% 172 126 115
Cameron Young 0.33% 303 151 47
Chris Kirk 0.29% 345 401 55
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.42% 238 501 0.20% 50 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 7pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa 2.69% 37 26 50
Corey Conners 2.53% 40 61 0.90% 19 -0.9 Betfair: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Daniel Berger 0.91% 110 91 33
Daniel Van Tonder 0.04% 2500 1501 103
David Puig 0.33% 303 201 60
Davis Riley 0.06% 1667 501 2
Davis Thompson 0.73% 137 126 107
Dean Burmester 0.33% 303 201 107
Denny McCarthy 1.05% 95 176 0.50% 8 -0.5 Spreadex: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Dustin Johnson 0.21% 476 201 143
Dylan Newman 0.00% 10000 5001 137
Elvis Smylie 0.05% 2000 1001 72
Eric Cole 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 41 -0.2 Skybet: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Eric Steger 0.00% 10000 5001 132
Erik Van Rooyen 0.20% 500 351 115
Eugenio Chacarra 0.16% 625 351 93
Garrick Higgo 0.09% 1111 601 55
Gary Woodland 0.48% 208 201 93
Greg Koch 0.00% 10000 5001 155
Harris English 0.75% 133 176 0.20% 2 2.9 Bet365: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Harry Hall 0.50% 200 501 0.30% 19 -0.3 Skybet: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama 1.95% 51 41 84
J.J. Spaun 0.79% 127 201 0.30% 37 -0.3 Priced Up: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
J.T. Poston 0.56% 179 301 0.20% 5 4.9 Skybet: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jacob Bridgeman 0.36% 278 301 107
Jake Knapp 0.11% 909 351 75
Jason Day 1.01% 99 101 107
Jason Dufner 0.00% 10000 2501 145
Jesse Droemer 0.00% 10000 5001 137
Jhonattan Vegas 0.14% 714 751 5
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 10000 2501 93
Joaquin Niemann 2.36% 42 36 8
Joe Highsmith 0.11% 909 501 8
John Catlin 0.02% 5000 1001 84
John Parry 0.08% 1250 1001 118
John Somers 0.00% 10000 5001 124
Johnny Keefer 0.42% 238 501 0.20% 115 -0.2 Skybet: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jon Rahm 3.40% 29 23 8
Jordan Spieth 1.05% 95 61 75
Justin Hicks 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Justin Lower 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 60 -0.1 Spreadex: 1000/1, 7pl, 1/5
Justin Rose 0.45% 222 126 124
Justin Thomas 3.52% 28 21 84
Karl Vilips 0.06% 1667 751 137
Keegan Bradley 1.26% 79 126 0.50% 8 0.13888888888889 Bet365: 110/1, 8pl, 1/5
Keita Nakajima 0.15% 667 501 103
Keith Mitchell 0.74% 135 126 84
Kevin Yu 0.34% 294 301 50
Kurt Kitayama 0.33% 303 251 75
Larkin Gross 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Laurie Canter 0.06% 1667 501 118
Lee Hodges 0.21% 476 501 107
Lucas Glover 0.30% 333 301 37
Ludvig Aberg 1.40% 71 26 84
Luke Donald 0.00% 10000 2501 60
Mackenzie Hughes 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 124 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Marco Penge 0.09% 1111 751 28
Martin Kaymer 0.01% 10000 2001 118
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.47% 213 176 8
Matt McCarty 0.19% 526 501 93
Matt Wallace 0.20% 500 501 17
Matthieu Pavon 0.10% 1000 1001 41
Maverick McNealy 0.82% 122 126 33
Max Greyserman 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 33 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 8pl, 1/5
Max Homa 0.37% 270 151 60
Max McGreevy 0.11% 909 751 103
Michael Block 0.00% 10000 5001 150
Michael Kartrude 0.00% 10000 5001 132
Michael Kim 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 55 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.16% 625 451 41
Min Woo Lee 0.68% 147 91 93
Nic Ishee 0.00% 10000 5001 151
Nick Dunlap 0.05% 2000 1001 118
Nick Taylor 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 107 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 7pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria 0.12% 833 601 41
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.13% 769 351 41
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.24% 417 351 84
Padraig Harrington 0.01% 10000 1501 75
Patrick Cantlay 3.63% 28 41 1.20% 107 -1.2 Bet365: 40/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 93 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed 1.21% 83 81 93
Patrick Rodgers 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 124 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire 0.04% 2500 1501 156
Phil Mickelson 0.10% 1000 501 124
Rafael Campos 0.02% 5000 2501 55
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.39% 256 201 67
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.51% 196 351 0.20% 75 -0.2 Priced Up: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard Bland 0.23% 435 1001 0.10% 37 -0.1 Spreadex: 1000/1, 7pl, 1/5
Rickie Fowler 0.55% 182 176 93
Rico Hoey 0.35% 286 301 137
Robert MacIntyre 0.54% 185 126 47
Rory McIlroy 5.74% 17 6 47
Rupe Taylor 0.00% 10000 5001 154
Russell Henley 2.06% 49 81 0.80% 132 -0.8 Betfred: 70/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox 0.26% 385 251 28
Ryan Gerard 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 8 0.46111111111111 Skybet: 500/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Lenahan 0.00% 10000 5001 137
Ryo Hisatsune 0.22% 455 501 37
Sahith Theegala 0.22% 455 251
Sam Burns 1.25% 80 151 0.60% 19 -0.6 William Hill: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 60 -0.1 Skybet: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sami Valimaki 0.20% 500 351 124
Scottie Scheffler 9.28% 11 6 1
Seamus Power 0.55% 182 401 0.30% 93 -0.3 Skybet: 350/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka 1.15% 87 67 75
Sergio Garcia 0.41% 244 201 67
Shane Lowry 1.54% 65 51 75
Shaun Micheel 0.00% 10000 5001 118
Si Woo Kim 0.99% 101 151 0.30% 8 -0.3 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephan Jaeger 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sungjae Im 1.64% 61 91 0.50% 103 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 8pl, 1/5
Takumi Kanaya 0.13% 769 751 84
Taylor Moore 0.29% 345 351 19
Taylor Pendrith 0.50% 200 201 5
Thomas Detry 0.34% 294 251 93
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 33 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.04% 2500 1501 84
Timothy Wiseman 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Tom Hoge 0.26% 385 351 75
Tom Johnson 0.01% 10000 5001 132
Tom Kim 0.40% 250 251 71
Tom McKibbin 0.21% 476 351 50
Tommy Fleetwood 3.46% 29 41 1.00% 41 -1 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Tony Finau 1.40% 71 126 0.60% 19 -0.6 Spreadex: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Tyler Collet 0.00% 10000 5001 124
Tyrrell Hatton 2.18% 46 51 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 45/1, 8pl, 1/5
Victor Perez 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 84 -0.1 Priced Up: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Viktor Hovland 1.41% 71 51 28
Will Zalatoris 0.44% 227 176 107
Wyndham Clark 0.60% 167 126 50
Xander Schauffele 0.00% 10000 23 28

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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