Simulation Results: Myrtle Beach Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.62%	161	91		88
Aaron Rai	2.60%	38	36		5
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	551		105
Adam Hadwin	0.53%	189	151		53
Adam Schenk	0.28%	357	176		121
Adam Svensson	0.50%	200	121		45
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	1.49%	67	41		31
Adrien Saddier	0.67%	149	101
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	301		105
Austin Eckroat	2.41%	41	41		19
Beau Hossler	1.30%	77	71		3
Ben Kohles	0.46%	217	126		31
Ben Martin	0.11%	909	601		100
Ben Silverman	0.22%	455	276		88
Billy Horschel	1.08%	93	61		53
Blades Brown	0.88%	114	46		9
Brandt Snedeker	0.46%	217	201		1
Brendon Todd	0.02%	5000	1251		67
Brice Garnett	0.17%	588	351		19
Brooks Koepka	4.33%	23	15		11
Cam Davis	0.05%	2000	351		67
Camilo Villegas	0.03%	3333	501		45
Carson Young	0.68%	147	101		67
Casey Jarvis	0.92%	109	41		38
Chad Ramey	1.41%	71	61		100
Chan Kim	0.14%	714	161		45
Chandler Phillips	0.47%	213	161		116
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.98%	25	46	1.80%	6	-1.8	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.09%	1111	161		60
Connor Doyal	0.00%	10000	2501		53
Cooper Hrabak	0.00%	10000	2501		121
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.19%	84	67		88
Danny Walker	0.07%	1429	201		38
Danny Willett	0.07%	1429	701		45
David Skinns	0.42%	238	151		24
Davis Chatfield	0.17%	588	251		113
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	301		45
Davis Thompson	4.03%	25	18		13
Doug Ghim	3.15%	32	51	1.20%	19	-1.2	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu	0.54%	185	131		113
Emiliano Grillo	1.16%	86	86		77
Eric Cole	2.73%	37	46	0.60%	6	-0.6	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	0.56%	179	126		38
Evan Harmeling	0.00%	10000	1501		88
Garrick Higgo	0.45%	222	91		67
Gordon Sargent	0.15%	667	251		88
Grant Haefner	0.01%	10000	5001		88
Grayson Wood	0.00%	10000	2001		45
Hank Lebioda	0.27%	370	131		74
Haotong Li	1.77%	56	41		77
Hayden Springer	0.65%	154	101		24
Henrik Norlander	0.25%	400	276		88
Jackson Suber	0.23%	435	151		19
James Hahn	0.00%	10000	1001		100
Jeffrey Kang	0.08%	1250	351		88
Jeremy Paul	0.14%	714	401		123
Jesper Svensson	0.58%	172	91		105
Jimmy Stanger	0.14%	714	161		38
Joe Highsmith	0.16%	625	201		67
Joel Dahmen	0.47%	213	111		116
John Parry	2.94%	34	51	1.00%	31	-1	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.15%	667	151		60
Johnny Keefer	1.19%	84	56		31
Justin Lower	0.13%	769	276		45
Karl Vilips	0.73%	137	67		24
Keita Nakajima	0.20%	500	151		13
Kensei Hirata	0.14%	714	326		65
Kevin Roy	0.93%	108	61		3
Kevin Streelman	0.20%	500	226		77
Kevin Yu	1.73%	58	29		53
Kris Ventura	1.12%	89	61		105
Lanto Griffin	0.40%	250	176		13
Lee Hodges	1.67%	60	61		67
Luke Clanton	0.25%	400	141		60
Mac Meissner	2.74%	36	31		9
Marcelo Rozo	0.02%	5000	551		53
Marco Penge	1.58%	63	21
Mark Hubbard	0.67%	149	111		2
Martin Laird	0.08%	1250	551		65
Matt Kuchar	0.81%	123	141	0.10%	24	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	77	-0.1	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid	1.77%	56	41		88
Max Greyserman	1.93%	52	46		31
Max McGreevy	1.63%	61	41		77
Nathan Petronzio	0.00%	10000			77
Neal Shipley	0.19%	526	131		38
Nicholas Marchese	0.00%	10000	2001		120
Nick Dunlap	0.13%	769	181		24
Nick Hardy	0.19%	526	276		105
Patrick Fishburn	0.41%	244	141		19
Patton Kizzire	0.18%	556	276		113
Paul Peterson	0.18%	556	401		11
Peter Malnati	0.11%	909	426		53
Petr Hruby	0.06%	1667	501		31
Pontus Nyholm	0.16%	625	111		31
Rafael Campos	0.03%	3333	601		77
Rasmus Hojgaard	3.21%	31	26		24
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	2.34%	43	31		77
Rico Hoey	1.92%	52	36		53
Robert Streb	0.00%	10000	1251		116
Ryan Brehm	0.02%	5000	1001		77
Ryan Ruffels	0.00%	10000	1001		45
Sam Ryder	1.08%	93	81		17
Sami Valimaki	2.47%	40	51	0.50%	88	-0.5	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seamus Power	2.68%	37	61	1.10%	60	-1.1	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephan Jaeger	2.10%	48	46		119
Steven Fisk	1.43%	70	46		38
Takumi Kanaya	1.33%	75	131	0.60%	38	-0.6	Skybet: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore	1.43%	70	56		17
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.14%	714	251		77
Thriston Lawrence	1.57%	64	101	0.60%	105	-0.6	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Kim	1.41%	71	56		6
Trace Crowe	0.71%	141	67		67
Trent Phillips	0.13%	769	141		100
Troy Merritt	0.06%	1667	551		75
Tyler Collet	0.00%	10000	1501		75
Tyler Duncan	0.08%	1250	201		100
Vince Whaley	1.54%	65	67		88
Wells Williams	0.00%	10000	1001		105
William Mouw	1.14%	88	41
Zac Blair	0.88%	114	111		60
Zach Bauchou	0.56%	179	67		24
Zecheng Dou	0.59%	169	81		13

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	1.09%	92	71		31
Aaron Rai	2.45%	41	51	0.50%	2	2.875	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wise	0.07%	1429	226		7
Adam Hadwin	0.49%	204	111		7
Adam Schenk	0.38%	263	126		121
Adam Svensson	1.06%	94	91		7
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.98%	102	51		67
Adrien Saddier	0.61%	164	91
Alejandro Tosti	0.10%	1000	151		95
Austin Eckroat	1.26%	79	56		7
Beau Hossler	1.60%	63	71	0.20%	17	-0.2	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Kohles	0.45%	222	111		17
Ben Martin	0.46%	217	181		95
Ben Silverman	0.34%	294	151		109
Billy Horschel	1.50%	67	61		67
Blades Brown	0.65%	154	51		31
Brandt Snedeker	0.95%	105	111		7
Brendon Todd	0.09%	1111	351		31
Brice Garnett	0.30%	333	201		117
Brooks Koepka	3.41%	29	29		17
Cam Davis	0.12%	833	151		42
Camilo Villegas	0.26%	385	181		84
Carson Young	0.55%	182	81		42
Casey Jarvis	1.32%	76	51		7
Chad Ramey	0.92%	109	67		95
Chan Kim	0.54%	185	111		42
Chandler Phillips	0.44%	227	111		109
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.21%	31	56	1.50%	7	-1.5	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.19%	526	111		42
Connor Doyal	0.01%	10000	351		95
Cooper Hrabak	0.00%	10000	501		117
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.85%	118	67		109
Danny Walker	0.41%	244	126		42
Danny Willett	0.17%	588	226		84
David Skinns	0.88%	114	101		95
Davis Chatfield	0.29%	345	141		95
Davis Riley	0.40%	250	151		7
Davis Thompson	3.10%	32	34	0.20%	42	-0.2	BetMGM: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	1.51%	66	67		17
Dylan Wu	0.54%	185	111		67
Emiliano Grillo	1.49%	67	81	0.30%	67	-0.3	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eric Cole	2.50%	40	56	0.70%	31	-0.7	William Hill: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	1.12%	89	81		84
Evan Harmeling	0.02%	5000	401		95
Garrick Higgo	0.47%	213	81		42
Gordon Sargent	0.56%	179	111		42
Grant Haefner	0.10%	1000	401		121
Grayson Wood	0.00%	10000	301		95
Hank Lebioda	0.73%	137	91		17
Haotong Li	1.10%	91	51		67
Hayden Springer	0.60%	167	81		42
Henrik Norlander	0.30%	333	141		84
Jackson Suber	0.34%	294	101		31
James Hahn	0.07%	1429	301		67
Jeffrey Kang	0.18%	556	151		42
Jeremy Paul	0.28%	357	201		121
Jesper Svensson	1.03%	97	81		109
Jimmy Stanger	0.50%	200	101		67
Joe Highsmith	0.57%	175	126		42
Joel Dahmen	0.46%	217	91		67
John Parry	2.78%	36	56	1.00%	17	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.48%	208	111		4
Johnny Keefer	0.78%	128	61		84
Justin Lower	0.25%	400	141		31
Karl Vilips	1.14%	88	71		17
Keita Nakajima	0.30%	333	111		2
Kensei Hirata	0.43%	233	131		42
Kevin Roy	1.39%	72	67		17
Kevin Streelman	0.56%	179	111		42
Kevin Yu	1.05%	95	51		42
Kris Ventura	1.48%	68	67		67
Lanto Griffin	0.46%	217	126		42
Lee Hodges	1.95%	51	61	0.30%	84	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Clanton	0.67%	149	101		42
Mac Meissner	1.49%	67	46		7
Marcelo Rozo	0.18%	556	201		84
Marco Penge	0.96%	104	36
Mark Hubbard	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	4	0.85	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Martin Laird	0.36%	278	201		1
Matt Kuchar	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	42	-0.3	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	1.51%	66	71	0.10%	42	-0.1	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	1.92%	52	51		31
Max Greyserman	1.08%	93	56		42
Max McGreevy	1.85%	54	51		84
Nathan Petronzio	0.03%	3333	301		42
Neal Shipley	0.28%	357	111		95
Nicholas Marchese	0.00%	10000	401		117
Nick Dunlap	0.46%	217	111		31
Nick Hardy	0.30%	333	151		95
Patrick Fishburn	0.87%	115	101		31
Patton Kizzire	0.58%	172	126		95
Paul Peterson	0.53%	189	176		4
Peter Malnati	0.46%	217	176		17
Petr Hruby	0.35%	286	201		17
Pontus Nyholm	0.23%	435	91		42
Rafael Campos	0.13%	769	226		42
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.55%	65	36		67
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.21%	83	46		84
Rico Hoey	1.11%	90	51		67
Robert Streb	0.02%	5000	351		95
Ryan Brehm	0.16%	625	301		95
Ryan Ruffels	0.02%	5000	301		7
Sam Ryder	0.80%	125	81		17
Sami Valimaki	1.34%	75	56		109
Seamus Power	1.41%	71	67		17
Stephan Jaeger	2.22%	45	51	0.30%	117	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Fisk	1.68%	60	56		42
Takumi Kanaya	1.70%	59	91	0.60%	17	-0.6	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	1.80%	56	61	0.20%	17	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.24%	417	141		84
Thriston Lawrence	0.99%	101	81		42
Tom Kim	1.68%	60	61		31
Trace Crowe	0.62%	161	71		67
Trent Phillips	0.25%	400	111		67
Troy Merritt	0.29%	345	226		67
Tyler Collet	0.01%	10000	401		31
Tyler Duncan	0.35%	286	141		109
Vince Whaley	0.96%	104	81		109
Wells Williams	0.02%	5000	251		109
William Mouw	0.84%	119
Zac Blair	0.73%	137	101		42
Zach Bauchou	1.02%	98	71		67
Zecheng Dou	1.02%	98	81		67

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.98%	25	46	1.80%	6	-2	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Doug Ghim	3.15%	32	51	1.20%	19	-2	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Seamus Power	2.68%	37	61	1.10%	60	-2	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.21%	31	56	1.50%	7	-1	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: John Parry	2.78%	36	56	1.00%	17	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Eric Cole	2.50%	40	56	0.70%	31	-1	William Hill: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Takumi Kanaya	1.70%	59	91	0.60%	17	-1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Aaron Rai	2.45%	41	51	0.50%	2	5.75	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Stephan Jaeger	2.22%	45	51	0.30%	117	-1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.