Simulation Results: Myrtle Beach Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.21% 476 601 119
Aaron Wise 0.11% 909 351 89
Adam Schenk 0.83% 120 81 110
Adam Svensson 0.92% 109 81 59
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.81% 123 111 110
Aldrich Potgieter 0.25% 400 81 80
Alejandro Tosti 0.79% 127 61 54
Alex Smalley 1.86% 54 34 5
Alistair Docherty 1.15% 87 61 110
Anders Albertson 0.09% 1111 1001 64
Andrew Putnam 2.46% 41 67 1.00% 61 -1 BetVictor: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Antoine Rozner 1.34% 75 67 34
Austin Cook 0.13% 769 601 132
Austin Duncan 0.01% 10000 751 54
Beau Hossler 1.12% 89 51 116
Ben Kohles 0.65% 154 151 37
Ben Silverman 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 20 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bill Haas 0.04% 2500 751 66
Blades Brown 0.55% 182 126 37
Braden Thornberry 0.17% 588 501 70
Brandt Snedeker 0.22% 455 401 116
Brice Garnett 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 31 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Champ 0.46% 217 86 101
Camilo Villegas 0.13% 769 501 89
Carson Young 0.73% 137 101 13
Chad Ramey 0.69% 145 101 45
Chan Kim 1.57% 64 51 110
Chandler Phillips 1.61% 62 61 89
Chesson Hadley 0.18% 556 501 20
Chez Reavie 0.19% 526 501 89
Chris Gotterup 1.50% 67 34 13
Cristobal Del Solar 0.11% 909 601 31
Danny Walker 0.73% 137 67 34
David Lipsky 0.42% 238 276 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Skinns 0.41% 244 201 70
Davis Riley 0.81% 123 56 80
Davis Shore 0.20% 500 501 13
Dillon Board 0.01% 10000 2001 124
Doug Ghim 1.58% 63 51 52
Dylan Wu 0.79% 127 101 45
Emiliano Grillo 1.47% 68 81 0.20% 20 -0.2 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Evan Harmeling 0.01% 10000 2501 101
Francesco Molinari 0.43% 233 251 59
Frankie Capan 0.32% 313 301 70
George Duangmanee 0.00% 10000 1001 67
George McNeill 0.07% 1429 2501 89
Greyson Sigg 0.69% 145 101 70
Harry Hall 2.96% 34 34 20
Harry Higgs 0.25% 400 301 2
Hayden Buckley 0.21% 476 501 7
Hayden Springer 0.88% 114 91 65
Henrik Norlander 1.84% 54 51 89
Jackson Byrd 0.00% 10000 1501 54
Jackson Suber 0.19% 526 301 119
James Hahn 0.18% 556 501 89
Jeremy Paul 0.86% 116 101 128
Jesper Svensson 1.06% 94 61 61
Joel Dahmen 1.50% 67 51 110
John Pak 0.17% 588 501 89
Jonathan Byrd 0.06% 1667 601 70
Joseph Bramlett 1.28% 78 81 13
Justin Lower 1.33% 75 76 70
Kaito Onishi 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 124 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Kisner 0.07% 1429 1501 70
Kevin Roy 0.91% 110 81 54
Kevin Tway 0.31% 323 301 129
Kevin Velo 0.20% 500 501 70
Kevin Yu 2.12% 47 31 4
Kris Ventura 0.55% 182 151 119
Lanto Griffin 0.41% 244 176 80
Lee Hodges 1.77% 56 46 80
Luke List 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 67 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mac Meissner 1.31% 76 71 101
Mackenzie Hughes 3.51% 28 21 2
Mark Hubbard 1.60% 63 56 7
Mason Andersen 0.14% 714 751 37
Matt NeSmith 0.43% 233 201 70
Matteo Manassero 0.84% 119 111 61
Matthew Riedel 0.10% 1000 601 101
Matti Schmid 1.14% 88 61 7
Max McGreevy 0.89% 112 56 45
Michael Feuerstein 0.03% 3333 2501 69
Nathan Franks 0.00% 10000 751 37
Nick Hardy 0.46% 217 201 119
Nick Watney 0.07% 1429 1001 45
Niklas Norgaard Moller 1.37% 73 51 5
Noah Goodwin 0.32% 313 226 89
Norman Xiong 0.41% 244 251 25
Patrick Fishburn 2.04% 49 51 0.10% 119 -0.1 Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire 0.36% 278 151 20
Paul Peterson 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 89 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Waring 0.30% 333 601 0.10% 101 -0.1 Skybet: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Malnati 0.07% 1429 1001 80
Philip Knowles 0.07% 1429 1501 101
Pierceson Coody 1.51% 66 46
Preston Cole 0.00% 10000 3001 131
Quade Cummins 0.87% 115 91 27
Rafael Campos 0.21% 476 501 45
Randall Hudson 0.00% 10000 1501 124
Ricky Castillo 1.14% 88 46 37
Rico Hoey 2.09% 48 46 7
Rikuya Hoshino 0.94% 106 101 80
Robby Shelton 0.84% 119 111 101
Ryan Fox 1.67% 60 46 1
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 1501 124
Ryo Hisatsune 1.64% 61 51 37
Sam Ryder 1.35% 74 51 13
Sami Valimaki 1.32% 76 36 7
Scott Gutschewski 0.09% 1111 1001 89
Scott Piercy 0.30% 333 301 129
Seamus Power 2.83% 35 41 0.40% 34 -0.4 BetVictor: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Fisk 0.88% 114 67 13
Takumi Kanaya 1.14% 88 67 45
Taylor Dickson 0.32% 313 251 37
Taylor Montgomery 0.35% 286 251 116
Taylor Moore 1.32% 76 36 25
Theo Humphrey 0.21% 476 1501 0.10% 45 -0.1 QuinnBet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.39% 256 101 80
Thorbjorn Olesen 3.68% 27 34 0.80% 7 -0.8 Unibet: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.33% 303 201 70
Tim Widing 0.19% 526 301 52
Tom Kim 2.71% 37 26 54
Trace Crowe 0.54% 185 126 27
Trent Phillips 0.14% 714 501 31
Trevor Cone 0.14% 714 501 80
Tyler Duncan 0.51% 196 126 89
Victor Perez 1.68% 60 51 13
Vince Whaley 1.60% 63 51 37
Will Chandler 0.17% 588 501 27
William Mouw 0.41% 244 151 27
Zac Blair 0.54% 185 201 110
Zach Reuland 0.00% 10000 1501 101

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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