Simulation Results: Mexico Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.14% 714 601 34
Aaron Rai 3.59% 28 34 0.70% 4 1.61 Paddy Power: 28/1, 8pl, 1/5
Adam Svensson 1.17% 85 91 0.10% 59 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akshay Bhatia 4.70% 21 15 9
Aldrich Potgieter 0.11% 909 67 2
Alejandro Tosti 0.20% 500 101 10
Alex Smalley 1.95% 51 36 10
Alvaro Ortiz 0.14% 714 501 78
Anders Albertson 0.06% 1667 1001 78
Andrew Putnam 2.08% 48 101 1.10% 49 -1.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Antoine Rozner 0.80% 125 81 55
Beau Hossler 2.60% 38 36 92
Ben Griffin 2.66% 38 34 4
Ben Kohles 0.65% 154 151 25
Ben Martin 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 45 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman 1.45% 69 81 0.20% 78 -0.2 Betfair: 75/1, 8pl, 1/5
Blades Brown 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 34 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Thornberry 0.07% 1429 601 117
Brian Campbell 0.33% 303 301 1
C.T. Pan 1.67% 60 67 0.20% 68 -0.2 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carson Young 1.06% 94 91 125
Chad Ramey 0.54% 185 201 34
Chan Kim 1.21% 83 81 17
Chandler Phillips 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 34 -0.2 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Charley Hoffman 1.28% 78 91 0.20% 92 -0.2 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Gotterup 0.70% 143 81 92
Cristobal Del Solar 0.01% 10000 601 78
Danny Walker 0.15% 667 401 13
David Lipsky 0.54% 185 301 0.20% 76 -0.2 William Hill: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
David Skinns 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 117 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Riley 0.09% 1111 501 92
Emiliano Grillo 0.59% 169 126 65
Erich Fortlage 0.00% 10000 2501 131
Erik Van Rooyen 1.16% 86 61 59
Francesco Molinari 0.12% 833 401 49
Frankie Capan 0.59% 169 111 55
Fred Biondi 0.02% 5000 1001 63
Gerardo Gomez 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Greyson Sigg 1.46% 68 67 17
Harry Hall 2.27% 44 41 34
Harry Higgs 0.17% 588 251 74
Hayden Buckley 0.02% 5000 501 103
Hayden Springer 0.67% 149 126 45
Henrik Norlander 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 13 -0.2 Paddy Power: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.26% 385 201 3
Jackson Suber 0.17% 588 151 92
Jacob Bridgeman 1.13% 88 81 34
Jake Knapp 1.53% 65 41 25
Jeremy Paul 0.18% 556 251 25
Jesper Svensson 0.64% 156 67 49
Jesse Droemer 0.00% 10000 5001 128
Joe Highsmith 0.89% 112 81 17
Joel Dahmen 0.58% 172 151 6
John Pak 0.07% 1429 751 17
Jonathan Byrd 0.05% 2000 1501 49
Jose Antonio Safa 0.00% 10000 2001 122
Jose Cristobal Islas 0.00% 10000 1001 78
Jose Luis Ballester 0.02% 5000 401 17
Justin Hastings 0.00% 10000 501 13
Justin Lower 1.26% 79 61 78
Kaito Onishi 0.03% 3333 2001 78
Karl Vilips 0.13% 769 251 72
Kevin Roy 0.55% 182 101 17
Kevin Velo 0.01% 10000 751 112
Kevin Yu 1.92% 52 36 45
Kris Ventura 0.63% 159 81 25
Kurt Kitayama 3.01% 33 23 92
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 78 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lanto Griffin 0.83% 120 101 25
Leandro Mihaich 0.00% 10000 2501 132
Luke Gifford 0.01% 10000 1501 122
Luke List 0.68% 147 126 103
Mac Meissner 1.16% 86 81 103
Mason Andersen 0.05% 2000 1001 65
Matt McCarty 0.50% 200 176 63
Matt Wallace 1.39% 72 51 117
Matteo Manassero 0.83% 120 126 68
Matthew Riedel 0.05% 2000 501 92
Matthew Watkins 0.00% 10000 2501 78
Matti Schmid 0.66% 152 111 103
Max McGreevy 0.46% 217 126 25
Michael Kim 2.78% 36 29 13
Michael Thorbjornsen 1.03% 97 81 112
Nate Lashley 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 128 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Hardy 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 92 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.84% 119 41 8
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.85% 118 46 34
Noah Goodwin 0.14% 714 501 49
Padraig Harrington 0.20% 500 251 112
Patrick Fishburn 1.74% 57 71 0.30% 103 -0.3 Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Rodgers 3.65% 27 26 25
Patton Kizzire 0.63% 159 151 78
Paul Peterson 0.24% 417 351 117
Paul Waring 0.33% 303 201 125
Peter Malnati 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 68 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Philip Knowles 0.01% 10000 2501 92
Quade Cummins 0.23% 435 176 32
Rafael Campos 0.15% 667 501 34
Rasmus Hojgaard 2.69% 37 19 34
Ricky Castillo 0.47% 213 91 55
Rico Hoey 0.97% 103 81 103
Rikuya Hoshino 0.28% 357 201 116
Riley Lewis 0.00% 10000 1501 76
Ryan Fox 1.24% 81 71 78
Ryan Gerard 0.64% 156 81 17
Ryan Palmer 0.07% 1429 751 117
Ryo Hisatsune 0.53% 189 176 10
Sam Ryder 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 59 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Stevens 3.09% 32 26 103
Sami Valimaki 0.51% 196 201 34
Santiago De La Fuente 0.03% 3333 1501 65
Scott Piercy 0.07% 1429 501 55
Stephan Jaeger 3.69% 27 26 6
Steven Fisk 0.29% 345 251 17
Takumi Kanaya 0.47% 213 101 32
Taylor Dickson 0.07% 1429 751 78
Taylor Montgomery 0.28% 357 301 45
Taylor Moore 2.59% 39 31 34
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.07% 1429 401 68
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.97% 103 67 49
Thriston Lawrence 0.31% 323 101 59
Tim Widing 0.07% 1429 401 78
Trevor Cone 0.06% 1667 601 122
Trey Mullinax 0.72% 139 91 103
Tyler McCumber 0.01% 10000 601 130
Victor Perez 1.25% 80 126 0.50% 72 -0.5 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Vince Whaley 0.89% 112 111 112
Vincent Norrman 0.70% 143 91 75
Will Chandler 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 78 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Gordon 0.52% 192 111 103
William Mouw 0.12% 833 201 92

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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