Simulation Results: Memorial Tournament

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.66%	152	76		19
Adam Scott	0.57%	175	61		12
Akshay Bhatia	0.96%	104	76		66
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.29%	345	151		6
Alex Noren	1.07%	93	91		9
Alex Smalley	0.95%	105	51		71
Andrew Novak	0.17%	588	181		54
Ben Griffin	1.99%	50	34		61
Billy Horschel	0.14%	714	401		54
Brandt Snedeker	0.17%	588	351		36
Brian Campbell	0.03%	3333	1501		54
Brian Harman	0.63%	159	151		54
Bud Cauley	0.28%	357	151		22
Cameron Young	3.38%	30	17		46
Chris Gotterup	1.19%	84	51		27
Corey Conners	0.58%	172	111		53
Daniel Berger	0.30%	333	151		66
Denny McCarthy	0.39%	256	226		34
Eric Cole	0.51%	196	126		8
Gary Woodland	0.79%	127	81		36
Harris English	1.20%	83	71		17
Harry Hall	0.55%	182	126		29
Hideki Matsuyama	1.66%	60	41		43
J.J. Spaun	1.69%	59	41		12
J.T. Poston	0.49%	204	141		1
Jacob Bridgeman	0.45%	222	111		34
Jake Knapp	0.94%	106	1501	0.90%			Boyle Sports: 1500/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jason Day	0.47%	213	111		54
Jhonattan Vegas	0.05%	2000	601		70
Jordan Spieth	1.88%	53	46		54
Justin Rose	0.79%	127	67		12
Justin Thomas	1.61%	62	36		19
Keegan Bradley	0.95%	105	101		19
Kristoffer Reitan	0.43%	233	101		6
Kurt Kitayama	1.10%	91	67		22
Lucas Glover	0.12%	833	501		46
Ludvig Aberg	5.92%	17	15		39
Mac Meissner	0.61%	164	126		46
Mark Hubbard	0.13%	769	501		63
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.14%	32	21		36
Matt Kuchar	0.18%	556	401		22
Matt McCarty	0.35%	286	176		54
Maverick McNealy	1.04%	96	61		10
Michael Kim	0.34%	294	226		49
Min Woo Lee	1.23%	81	46		63
Nick Taylor	0.67%	149	91		43
Nico Echavarria	0.14%	714	201		40
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.78%	128	67		63
Patrick Cantlay	2.85%	35	29		17
Patrick Rodgers	0.26%	385	301		49
Pierceson Coody	0.60%	167	126		68
Rickie Fowler	1.36%	74	51		72
Robert MacIntyre	1.24%	81	51		61
Rory McIlroy	6.44%	16	12		12
Russell Henley	5.38%	19	21	0.60%	22	-0.6	Boyle Sports: 14/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.29%	345	201		27
Ryan Gerard	0.45%	222	101		2
Ryo Hisatsune	0.32%	313	111		52
Sahith Theegala	0.44%	227	126		32
Sam Burns	1.75%	57	56		4
Sam Stevens	0.25%	400	141		69
Scottie Scheffler	20.10%	5	4.33		12
Sepp Straka	1.02%	98	61		40
Shane Lowry	0.79%	127	76		22
Si Woo Kim	3.36%	30	23		10
Sungjae Im	0.38%	263	151		32
Taylor Pendrith	0.30%	333	201		43
Tom Hoge	0.08%	1250	351		51
Tommy Fleetwood	3.05%	33	26		4
Tony Finau	0.32%	313	181		29
Wyndham Clark	0.92%	109	81		3
Xander Schauffele	4.14%	24	19		29

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.15%	87	56		33
Adam Scott	0.95%	105	51		23
Akshay Bhatia	1.34%	75	51		33
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.74%	135	91		23
Alex Noren	1.40%	71	61		13
Alex Smalley	1.34%	75	51		72
Andrew Novak	0.54%	185	91		13
Ben Griffin	2.01%	50	36		44
Billy Horschel	0.44%	227	131		44
Brandt Snedeker	0.59%	169	131		60
Brian Campbell	0.21%	476	226		60
Brian Harman	1.03%	97	81		60
Bud Cauley	0.69%	145	91		33
Cameron Young	2.84%	35	26		33
Chris Gotterup	1.41%	71	51		44
Corey Conners	1.00%	100	81		44
Daniel Berger	0.74%	135	91		23
Denny McCarthy	0.77%	130	91		33
Eric Cole	0.96%	104	71		23
Gary Woodland	1.20%	83	56		23
Harris English	1.63%	61	51		13
Harry Hall	0.95%	105	81		33
Hideki Matsuyama	1.88%	53	41		23
J.J. Spaun	1.82%	55	41		1
J.T. Poston	0.92%	109	81		8
Jacob Bridgeman	0.88%	114	71		60
Jason Day	0.87%	115	67		44
Jhonattan Vegas	0.28%	357	176		70
Jordan Spieth	1.94%	52	41		13
Justin Rose	1.14%	88	51		6
Justin Thomas	1.69%	59	36		44
Keegan Bradley	1.34%	75	61		13
Kristoffer Reitan	0.89%	112	67		55
Kurt Kitayama	1.44%	69	51		23
Lucas Glover	0.46%	217	151		33
Ludvig Aberg	3.77%	27	23		13
Mac Meissner	1.07%	93	81		55
Mark Hubbard	0.45%	222	141		55
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.64%	38	34		55
Matt Kuchar	0.52%	192	151		55
Matt McCarty	0.78%	128	91		71
Maverick McNealy	1.40%	71	51		13
Michael Kim	0.79%	127	91		60
Min Woo Lee	1.46%	68	46		44
Nick Taylor	1.08%	93	67		5
Nico Echavarria	0.46%	217	91		33
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.22%	82	51		44
Patrick Cantlay	2.42%	41	36		8
Patrick Rodgers	0.66%	152	111		44
Pierceson Coody	1.03%	97	71		67
Rickie Fowler	1.65%	61	46		68
Robert MacIntyre	1.55%	65	51		65
Rory McIlroy	4.15%	24	21		13
Russell Henley	3.57%	28	29	0.10%	23	-0.1	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.74%	135	91		8
Ryan Gerard	0.85%	118	81		1
Ryo Hisatsune	0.68%	147	71		13
Sahith Theegala	0.85%	118	81		44
Sam Burns	1.94%	52	41		6
Sam Stevens	0.70%	143	91		68
Scottie Scheffler	8.47%	12	12	0.10%	33	-0.1	Unibet: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	1.39%	72	51		44
Shane Lowry	1.26%	79	56		8
Si Woo Kim	2.71%	37	34		23
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.57%	175	91		33
Sungjae Im	0.85%	118	91		33
Taylor Pendrith	0.74%	135	91		13
Tom Hoge	0.39%	256	131		65
Tommy Fleetwood	2.58%	39	34		1
Tony Finau	0.71%	141	91		8
Wyndham Clark	1.40%	71	61		1
Xander Schauffele	3.05%	33	29		23

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jake Knapp	0.94%	106	1501	0.90%			Boyle Sports: 1500/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Russell Henley	5.38%	19	21	0.60%	22	-2	Boyle Sports: 14/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN:
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	8.47%	12	12	0.10%	33	-1	Unibet: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Russell Henley	3.57%	28	29	0.10%	23	-1	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.