Simulation Results: The Masters

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.28%	357	276		48
Adam Scott	1.21%	83	81		24
Akshay Bhatia	1.05%	95	71		60
Aldrich Potgieter	0.06%	1667	401		86
Alex Noren	0.93%	108	181	0.40%	30	-0.4	Skybet: 110/1, 12pl, 1/5
Andrew Novak	0.24%	417	326		64
Angel Cabrera	0.00%	10000	2501		90
Ben Griffin	0.90%	111	176	0.30%	33	-0.3	Bet365: 140/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brandon Holtz	0.00%	10000	5001		86
Brian Campbell	0.02%	5000	1001		24
Brian Harman	0.36%	278	226		33
Brooks Koepka	0.52%	192	51		12
Bryson DeChambeau	3.82%	26	15		60
Bubba Watson	0.06%	1667	601		55
Cameron Smith	0.30%	333	111		64
Cameron Young	3.13%	32	23		3
Carlos Ortiz	0.34%	294	276		79
Casey Jarvis	0.21%	476	251		69
Charl Schwartzel	0.10%	1000	551		54
Chris Gotterup	1.10%	91	67		24
Collin Morikawa	3.29%	30	51	1.40%	7	3.22	Skybet: 28/1, 12pl, 1/5
Corey Conners	0.96%	104	101		49
Daniel Berger	0.30%	333	181		69
Danny Willett	0.02%	5000	1001		55
Davis Riley	0.02%	5000	801		91
Dustin Johnson	0.07%	1429	251		33
Ethan Fang	0.00%	10000	1501		69
Fred Couples	0.00%	10000	3001		74
Gary Woodland	0.34%	294	151		33
Haotong Li	0.18%	556	351		38
Harris English	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	30	-0.2	Betfred: 90/1, 8pl, 1/5
Harry Hall	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	55	-0.3	Priced Up: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hideki Matsuyama	2.58%	39	31		12
J.J. Spaun	0.92%	109	81		55
Jackson Herrington	0.00%	10000	5001		69
Jacob Bridgeman	0.85%	118	91		41
Jake Knapp	1.81%	55	71	0.40%	11	1.4	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Jason Day	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	12	-0.2	BetVictor: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Johnny Keefer	0.18%	556	351		79
Jon Rahm	6.12%	16	12		38
Jordan Spieth	1.60%	63	51		12
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.00%	10000	5001		74
Justin Rose	0.77%	130	41		3
Justin Thomas	0.76%	132	81		41
Keegan Bradley	0.43%	233	181		21
Kristoffer Reitan	0.30%	333	251		41
Kurt Kitayama	0.64%	156	161		51
Ludvig Aberg	3.69%	27	21		21
Marco Penge	0.39%	256	121		49
Mason Howell	0.00%	10000	1501		74
Mateo Pulcini	0.00%	10000	5001		86
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.14%	32	23		18
Matt McCarty	0.35%	286	301		24
Maverick McNealy	1.33%	75	91	0.20%	18	-0.2	BetVictor: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Greyserman	0.23%	435	301		84
Max Homa	0.28%	357	226		9
Michael Brennan	0.20%	500	401		24
Michael Kim	0.30%	333	251		69
Mike Weir	0.00%	10000	5001		77
Min Woo Lee	1.80%	56	36		79
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.01%	10000	5001		86
Nick Taylor	0.55%	182	226	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria	0.22%	455	351		85
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.15%	87	76		60
Patrick Cantlay	1.71%	58	71	0.30%	12	-0.075	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed	0.71%	141	46		12
Pongsapak Laopakdee	0.00%	10000	2001		79
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.47%	213	161		53
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.19%	526	376		64
Robert MacIntyre	2.46%	41	36		64
Rory McIlroy	4.12%	24	15		1
Russell Henley	3.60%	28	61	2.00%	3	9	Bet365: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.33%	303	251		55
Ryan Gerard	0.36%	278	161		38
Sam Burns	1.68%	60	101	0.70%	7	3.85	Skybet: 60/1, 12pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	0.45%	222	201		24
Sami Valimaki	0.24%	417	426		79
Scottie Scheffler	12.10%	8.3	7.5		2
Sepp Straka	0.93%	108	101		41
Sergio Garcia	0.07%	1429	351		52
Shane Lowry	1.22%	82	76		30
Si Woo Kim	1.91%	52	51		47
Sungjae Im	0.36%	278	131		46
Tom McKibbin	0.12%	833	351		64
Tommy Fleetwood	5.73%	17	23	1.40%	33	-1.4	Skybet: 16/1, 12pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	0.59%	169	101		3
Vijay Singh	0.00%	10000	5001		77
Viktor Hovland	1.43%	70	67		18
Wyndham Clark	0.25%	400	226		21
Xander Schauffele	5.33%	19	17		9
Zach Johnson	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	60	-0.1	Unibet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.62%	161	101		10
Adam Scott	1.35%	74	61		17
Akshay Bhatia	1.35%	74	51		33
Aldrich Potgieter	0.40%	250	101		90
Alex Noren	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	65	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Novak	0.60%	167	126		48
Angel Cabrera	0.05%	2000	301		77
Ben Griffin	1.13%	88	101	0.10%	17	-0.1	BetVictor: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Holtz	0.01%	10000	501		86
Brian Campbell	0.16%	625	301		10
Brian Harman	0.74%	135	101		77
Brooks Koepka	0.84%	119	51		17
Bryson DeChambeau	2.81%	36	23		56
Bubba Watson	0.29%	345	176		56
Cameron Smith	0.72%	139	76		40
Cameron Young	2.42%	41	31		33
Carlos Ortiz	0.82%	122	126		82
Casey Jarvis	0.60%	167	111		65
Charl Schwartzel	0.36%	278	176		48
Chris Gotterup	1.35%	74	51		17
Collin Morikawa	2.53%	40	46	0.40%	40	-0.4	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Corey Conners	1.23%	81	56		48
Daniel Berger	0.64%	156	86		56
Danny Willett	0.15%	667	201		56
Davis Riley	0.16%	625	176		89
Dustin Johnson	0.39%	256	111		33
Ethan Fang	0.02%	5000	301		40
Fred Couples	0.04%	2500	301		73
Gary Woodland	0.68%	147	76		10
Haotong Li	0.60%	167	126		10
Harris English	1.28%	78	71		33
Harry Hall	1.02%	98	126	0.20%	65	-0.2	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama	2.29%	44	41		17
J.J. Spaun	1.23%	81	61		40
Jackson Herrington	0.01%	10000	401		56
Jacob Bridgeman	1.16%	86	61		10
Jake Knapp	1.87%	53	56	0.10%	33	-0.1	BetMGM: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jason Day	1.48%	68	71	0.10%	3	0.61	BetMGM: 66/1, 7pl, 1/5
Johnny Keefer	0.59%	169	136		56
Jon Rahm	3.46%	29	23		73
Jordan Spieth	1.61%	62	51		17
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.01%	10000	2001		40
Justin Rose	1.00%	100	31		6
Justin Thomas	1.03%	97	56		17
Keegan Bradley	0.89%	112	101		17
Kristoffer Reitan	0.73%	137	111		17
Kurt Kitayama	1.13%	88	86		3
Ludvig Aberg	2.63%	38	26		40
Marco Penge	0.73%	137	67		56
Mason Howell	0.04%	2500	276		65
Mateo Pulcini	0.00%	10000	501		86
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.56%	39	34		40
Matt McCarty	0.83%	120	141	0.10%	17	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maverick McNealy	1.39%	72	67		65
Max Greyserman	0.64%	156	126		77
Max Homa	0.73%	137	101		17
Michael Brennan	0.52%	192	151		17
Michael Kim	0.68%	147	126		48
Mike Weir	0.04%	2500	501		86
Min Woo Lee	1.77%	56	41		73
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.13%	769	351		90
Nick Taylor	1.04%	96	141	0.30%	10	-0.3	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria	0.58%	172	126		77
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.38%	72	56		56
Patrick Cantlay	1.81%	55	61	0.20%	65	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Reed	1.05%	95	41		3
Pongsapak Laopakdee	0.00%	10000	301		82
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.97%	103	91		73
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.57%	175	141		65
Robert MacIntyre	2.00%	50	41		82
Rory McIlroy	2.98%	34	23		1
Russell Henley	2.74%	36	56	1.00%	33	-1	BetMGM: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.79%	127	126		65
Ryan Gerard	0.86%	116	101		17
Sam Burns	1.90%	53	67	0.40%	1	9.24	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	0.83%	120	101		17
Sami Valimaki	0.63%	159	136		82
Scottie Scheffler	5.41%	18	17		6
Sepp Straka	1.21%	83	61		33
Sergio Garcia	0.32%	313	111		17
Shane Lowry	1.58%	63	56		6
Si Woo Kim	1.62%	62	56		48
Sungjae Im	0.70%	143	71		56
Tom McKibbin	0.42%	238	126		48
Tommy Fleetwood	3.68%	27	36	0.90%	10	-0.9	BetMGM: 33/1, 7pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	0.88%	114	71		40
Vijay Singh	0.07%	1429	501		77
Viktor Hovland	1.63%	61	56		48
Wyndham Clark	0.60%	167	101		17
Xander Schauffele	3.58%	28	29	0.10%	6	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Johnson	0.46%	217	176		48

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Russell Henley	3.60%	28	61	2.00%	3	9	Bet365: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood	5.73%	17	23	1.40%	33	-2	Skybet: 16/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Collin Morikawa	3.29%	30	51	1.40%	7	4.6	Skybet: 28/1, 12pl, 1/5
FRL: Russell Henley	2.74%	36	56	1.00%	33	-1	BetMGM: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	3.68%	27	36	0.90%	10	-1	BetMGM: 33/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Collin Morikawa	2.53%	40	46	0.40%	40	-1	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Sam Burns	1.90%	53	67	0.40%	1	23.1	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Nick Taylor	1.04%	96	141	0.30%	10	-1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Patrick Cantlay	1.81%	55	61	0.20%	65	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.