18-Hole Simulation Results: Masters Tournament

Round	Time	Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Score	P/L
1	12:40	Davis Riley	49.44%	2	1.95		73
1	12:40	Patton Kizzire	41.17%	2.4	2.2		79
1	12:40	Tie	9.38%	11	8.5
1	12:51	Kevin Yu	36.26%	2.8	2.75		76
1	12:51	Nicolai Hojgaard	34.86%	2.9	2.75		76
1	12:51	Jhonattan Vegas	28.88%	3.5	3.25		75
1	13:02	Cameron Young	42.58%	2.3	2.2		72
1	13:02	Michael Kim	50.48%	1.98	2.2	4.60%	71	5.52
1	13:02	Mike Weir	6.95%	14	10		75
1	13:13	Joe Highsmith	35.54%	2.8	2.6		76
1	13:13	Chris Kirk	33.30%	3	2.75		75
1	13:13	Zach Johnson	31.16%	3.2	3.5	1.80%	72	4.5
1	13:24	Davis Thompson	41.84%	2.4	2.2		71
1	13:24	Nico Echavarria	33.10%	3	3.2	1.30%	73	-1.3
1	13:24	Danny Willett	25.05%	4	3.75		75
1	13:35	Will Zalatoris	63.99%	1.56	1.53		74
1	13:35	Bernhard Langer	22.20%	4.5	4.3		74
1	13:35	Noah Kent	13.80%	7.2	7		79
1	13:52	Cameron Smith	33.04%	3	2.5		71
1	13:52	Aaron Rai	34.77%	2.9	2.9	0.20%	70	0.38
1	13:52	J.T. Poston	32.20%	3.1	3.2	0.70%	74	-0.7
1	14:03	Taylor Pendrith	42.99%	2.3	2.1		77
1	14:03	Harris English	43.40%	2.3	2.4	1.50%	70	2.1
1	14:03	Fred Couples	13.60%	7.4	7		71
1	14:14	Corey Conners	43.08%	2.3	2.25		68
1	14:14	Brian Harman	29.05%	3.4	3		71
1	14:14	Stephan Jaeger	27.86%	3.6	3.5		72
1	14:25	Patrick Reed	37.28%	2.7	2.4		71
1	14:25	Byeong Hun An	31.92%	3.1	2.8		74
1	14:25	Max Greyserman	30.80%	3.2	3.5	1.60%	71	1.2
1	14:36	Robert MacIntyre	41.91%	2.4	2.1		75
1	14:36	Billy Horschel	32.66%	3.1	2.88		77
1	14:36	Nick Dunlap	25.42%	3.9	4.2	1.10%	90	-1.1
1	14:47	Collin Morikawa	41.94%	2.4	2.38		72
1	14:47	Joaquin Niemann	31.23%	3.2	2.9		72
1	14:47	Min Woo Lee	26.83%	3.7	3.4		71
1	14:58	Jason Day	33.58%	3	2.63		70
1	14:58	Keegan Bradley	39.15%	2.6	2.88	3.40%	74	-3.4
1	14:58	Phil Mickelson	27.27%	3.7	3.25		75
1	15:15	Scottie Scheffler	57.57%	1.74	1.7		68
1	15:15	Justin Thomas	30.47%	3.3	2.9		73
1	15:15	Jose Luis Ballester	11.96%	8.4	9	0.50%	76	-0.5
1	15:26	Jordan Spieth	32.56%	3.1	2.5		73
1	15:26	Tyrrell Hatton	38.24%	2.6	2.75	1.50%	69	2.63
1	15:26	Tom Kim	29.20%	3.4	3.4		73
1	15:37	Tony Finau	35.87%	2.8	2.6		75
1	15:37	Maverick McNealy	34.10%	2.9	2.9		72
1	15:37	Thomas Detry	30.03%	3.3	3.2		79
1	15:48	Austin Eckroat	43.43%	2.3	2.4	1.50%	76	-1.5
1	15:48	Cam Davis	32.23%	3.1	2.4		74
1	15:48	Rafael Campos	24.34%	4.1	4.5	1.40%	75	-1.4
1	15:59	Laurie Canter	41.91%	2.4	2.2		77
1	15:59	Adam Schenk	38.45%	2.6	2.88	2.90%	73	5.45
1	15:59	Angel Cabrera	19.64%	5.1	5		75
1	16:10	Brian Campbell	48.17%	2.1	2.1	0.50%	72	0.55
1	16:10	Thriston Lawrence	41.20%	2.4	2.2		79
1	16:10	Jose Maria Olazabal	10.63%	9.4	9		77
1	16:38	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	32.79%	3	2.75		76
1	16:38	Tom Hoge	37.16%	2.7	2.75	0.60%	72	-0.6
1	16:38	Matt McCarty	30.04%	3.3	3.25		71
1	16:49	Denny McCarthy	50.62%	1.98	2.05	1.80%	71	1.89
1	16:49	Charl Schwartzel	37.45%	2.7	2.38		74
1	16:49	Hiroshi Tai	11.93%	8.4	7		73
1	17:00	Justin Rose	34.80%	2.9	2.5		65
1	17:00	J.J. Spaun	38.47%	2.6	2.63	0.40%	74	-0.4
1	17:00	Max Homa	26.73%	3.7	3.75	0.00%	74	0
1	17:11	Dustin Johnson	34.53%	2.9	2.2		74
1	17:11	Nick Taylor	40.72%	2.5	2.5	0.60%	73	0.9
1	17:11	Justin Hastings	24.75%	4	5	3.00%	76	-3
1	17:22	Sergio Garcia	36.77%	2.7	2.5		72
1	17:22	Daniel Berger	30.57%	3.3	2.8		71
1	17:22	Lucas Glover	32.65%	3.1	3.25	1.40%	78	-1.4
1	17:33	Patrick Cantlay	48.87%	2	2.2	3.10%	74	-3.1
1	17:33	Matt Fitzpatrick	27.60%	3.6	3.15		71
1	17:33	Rasmus Hojgaard	23.52%	4.3	3.5		73
1	17:50	Brooks Koepka	29.33%	3.4	2.5		74
1	17:50	Russell Henley	37.56%	2.7	2.7	0.40%	79	-0.4
1	17:50	Sungjae Im	33.11%	3	3.4	2.60%	71	6.24
1	18:01	Xander Schauffele	41.23%	2.4	2.3		73
1	18:01	Viktor Hovland	32.76%	3.1	2.75		71
1	18:01	Adam Scott	26.01%	3.8	3.75		77
1	18:12	Rory McIlroy	46.33%	2.2	2		72
1	18:12	Ludvig Aberg	30.19%	3.3	3		68
1	18:12	Akshay Bhatia	23.48%	4.3	4.2		70
1	18:23	Bryson DeChambeau	34.28%	2.9	2.5		69
1	18:23	Hideki Matsuyama	33.30%	3	2.88		73
1	18:23	Shane Lowry	32.41%	3.1	3		71
1	18:34	Jon Rahm	38.82%	2.6	2.2		75
1	18:34	Tommy Fleetwood	34.85%	2.9	3	1.10%	73	2.2
1	18:34	Wyndham Clark	26.33%	3.8	3.8		76
1	18:45	Sepp Straka	37.58%	2.7	2.5		78
1	18:45	Sahith Theegala	28.59%	3.5	3		72
1	18:45	Sam Burns	33.83%	3	3.1	1.20%	73	-1.2

Round	Time	Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Score	P/L
2	15:48	Davis Riley	51.29%	1.95	1.8		73
2	15:48	Patton Kizzire	39.65%	2.5	2.5		79
2	15:48	Tie	9.06%	11	9
2	12:40	Austin Eckroat	37.87%	2.6	2.4		74
2	12:40	Cam Davis	34.04%	2.9	2.5		79
2	12:40	Rafael Campos	28.09%	3.6	4.5	3.80%	73	13.3
2	12:51	Laurie Canter	40.74%	2.5	2.3		77
2	12:51	Adam Schenk	38.02%	2.6	2.8	1.80%	75	3.24
2	12:51	Angel Cabrera	21.24%	4.7	4.6		80
2	13:02	Brian Campbell	49.00%	2	2.05	0.20%	73	0.21
2	13:02	Thriston Lawrence	39.99%	2.5	2.62	1.50%	76	-1.5
2	13:02	Jose Maria Olazabal	11.01%	9.1	7.5		74
2	13:24	Tom Hoge	38.16%	2.6	2.75	1.40%	72	-1.4
2	13:24	Matt McCarty	31.23%	3.2	3		68
2	13:24	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	30.61%	3.3	3.2		75
2	13:35	Denny McCarthy	49.90%	2	2		75
2	13:35	Charl Schwartzel	36.98%	2.7	2.62		72
2	13:35	Hiroshi Tai	13.12%	7.6	7.5		77
2	13:52	Justin Rose	39.04%	2.6	2.5		71
2	13:52	J.J. Spaun	36.04%	2.8	2.75		72
2	13:52	Max Homa	24.92%	4	3.75		70
2	14:03	Dustin Johnson	39.07%	2.6	2.4		73
2	14:03	Nick Taylor	39.02%	2.6	2.45		71
2	14:03	Justin Hastings	21.91%	4.6	5	1.20%	72	-1.2
2	14:14	Sergio Garcia	35.58%	2.8	2.62		76
2	14:14	Daniel Berger	33.79%	3	2.8		73
2	14:14	Lucas Glover	30.63%	3.3	3.4	0.90%	74	-0.9
2	14:25	Patrick Cantlay	47.32%	2.1	2.38	4.60%	72	-4.6
2	14:25	Matt Fitzpatrick	29.98%	3.3	3		73
2	14:25	Rasmus Hojgaard	22.70%	4.4	3.8		67
2	14:36	Brooks Koepka	30.46%	3.3	2.63		75
2	14:36	Russell Henley	35.29%	2.8	2.9	0.60%	68	1.14
2	14:36	Sungjae Im	34.25%	2.9	3.4	3.40%	70	-3.4
2	14:47	Xander Schauffele	43.43%	2.3	2.38	1.20%	69	0.23
2	14:47	Viktor Hovland	31.93%	3.1	2.75		69
2	14:47	Adam Scott	24.63%	4.1	4.2	0.50%	72	-0.5
2	14:58	Rory McIlroy	47.10%	2.1	2.25	2.40%	66	3
2	14:58	Ludvig Aberg	30.79%	3.2	2.87		73
2	14:58	Akshay Bhatia	22.11%	4.5	4.33		76
2	15:15	Bryson DeChambeau	38.35%	2.6	2.5		68
2	15:15	Hideki Matsuyama	31.27%	3.2	3.2		68
2	15:15	Shane Lowry	30.37%	3.3	3.2		68
2	15:26	Jon Rahm	38.63%	2.6	2.3		71
2	15:26	Tommy Fleetwood	36.67%	2.7	2.88	1.50%	69	-1.5
2	15:26	Wyndham Clark	24.71%	4	4		68
2	15:37	Sepp Straka	34.12%	2.9	2.63		71
2	15:37	Sahith Theegala	30.72%	3.3	3		72
2	15:37	Sam Burns	35.16%	2.8	3	1.40%	70	2.8
2	15:59	Kevin Yu	34.33%	2.9	2.8		74
2	15:59	Nicolai Hojgaard	35.30%	2.8	2.8		74
2	15:59	Jhonattan Vegas	30.36%	3.3	3.25		75
2	16:10	Michael Kim	46.89%	2.1	2.1		71
2	16:10	Cameron Young	45.51%	2.2	2.2	0.10%	79	-0.1
2	16:10	Mike Weir	7.59%	13	9		73
2	16:21	Joe Highsmith	35.02%	2.9	2.7		72
2	16:21	Chris Kirk	33.26%	3	2.75		72
2	16:21	Zach Johnson	31.71%	3.2	3.25	0.70%	74	-0.7
2	16:38	Davis Thompson	43.51%	2.3	2.1		73
2	16:38	Nico Echavarria	30.95%	3.2	3.1		70
2	16:38	Danny Willett	25.54%	3.9	3.75		71
2	16:49	Will Zalatoris	64.06%	1.56	1.57	0.50%	78	-0.5
2	16:49	Bernhard Langer	21.51%	4.6	4.2		73
2	16:49	Noah Kent	14.43%	6.9	7.5	0.60%	76	-0.6
2	17:00	Cameron Smith	33.00%	3	2.6		78
2	17:00	Aaron Rai	35.64%	2.8	2.88	0.70%	74	-0.7
2	17:00	J.T. Poston	31.36%	3.2	3.4	1.40%	72	3.36
2	17:11	Harris English	40.47%	2.5	2.3		73
2	17:11	Taylor Pendrith	45.01%	2.2	2.4	2.90%	75	-2.9
2	17:11	Fred Couples	14.52%	6.9	7	0.10%	77	-0.1
2	17:22	Corey Conners	44.03%	2.3	2.2		70
2	17:22	Brian Harman	30.67%	3.3	3.2		71
2	17:22	Stephan Jaeger	25.30%	4	3.75		74
2	17:33	Patrick Reed	39.61%	2.5	2.4		70
2	17:33	Byeong Hun An	30.84%	3.2	3		71
2	17:33	Max Greyserman	29.56%	3.4	3.4	0.10%	75	-0.1
2	17:50	Robert MacIntyre	42.89%	2.3	2		75
2	17:50	Billy Horschel	35.83%	2.8	2.88	0.80%	72	-0.8
2	17:50	Nick Dunlap	21.28%	4.7	6.5	3.50%	71	19.25
2	18:01	Collin Morikawa	40.28%	2.5	2.37		69
2	18:01	Joaquin Niemann	31.52%	3.2	3		74
2	18:01	Min Woo Lee	28.20%	3.5	3.4		72
2	18:12	Jason Day	37.87%	2.6	2.5		70
2	18:12	Keegan Bradley	37.66%	2.7	2.88	2.30%	73	-2.3
2	18:12	Phil Mickelson	24.47%	4.1	3.8		74
2	18:23	Scottie Scheffler	58.47%	1.71	1.67		71
2	18:23	Justin Thomas	28.74%	3.5	3.25		71
2	18:23	Jose Luis Ballester	12.78%	7.8	13	2.80%	78	-2.8
2	18:34	Tyrrell Hatton	40.15%	2.5	2.7	2.50%	70	4.25
2	18:34	Jordan Spieth	31.87%	3.1	2.87		73
2	18:34	Tom Kim	27.98%	3.6	3.6	0.10%	73	-0.1
2	18:45	Tony Finau	37.55%	2.7	2.7	0.40%	73	0.14
2	18:45	Maverick McNealy	34.45%	2.9	2.75		73
2	18:45	Thomas Detry	28.01%	3.6	3.5		74

Round	Time	Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Score	P/L
3	15:00	Joaquin Niemann	51.09%	1.96	2.05	2.30%	70	-2.3
3	15:00	Jordan Spieth	39.90%	2.5	2.3		69
3	15:00	Tie	9.01%	11	9		-
3	15:20	J.T. Poston	56.01%	1.79	1.83	1.50%	73	-1.5
3	15:20	Danny Willett	34.50%	2.9	2.9		73
3	15:20	Tie	9.49%	11	9		-
3	15:40	Patrick Cantlay	51.96%	1.92	1.91		73
3	15:40	Akshay Bhatia	38.69%	2.6	2.4		75
3	15:40	Tie	9.35%	11	9		-
3	16:10	Maverick McNealy	50.53%	1.98	1.91		71
3	16:10	Charl Schwartzel	40.10%	2.5	2.5	0.10%	72	-0.1
3	16:10	Tie	9.37%	11	9		-
3	16:30	Justin Thomas	50.48%	1.98	2	0.50%	76	-0.5
3	16:30	Aaron Rai	40.45%	2.5	2.63	2.00%	73	3.26
3	16:30	Tie	9.07%	11	9		-
3	16:50	Wyndham Clark	50.16%	1.99	2.1	2.40%	75	-2.4
3	16:50	Matt Fitzpatrick	40.14%	2.5	2.2		74
3	16:50	Tie	9.70%	10	9		-
3	17:10	Tom Hoge	49.55%	2	2.1	1.80%	70	-1.8
3	17:10	Max Homa	41.13%	2.4	2.3		69
3	17:10	Tie	9.31%	11	9		-
3	17:40	Sam Burns	51.86%	1.93	1.83		75
3	17:40	Nico Echavarria	39.00%	2.6	2.5		69
3	17:40	Tie	9.14%	11	9		-
3	18:00	Michael Kim	54.26%	1.84	1.9	1.70%	74	1.53
3	18:00	Davis Riley	36.38%	2.7	2.6		75
3	18:00	Tie	9.36%	11	9		-
3	18:20	Collin Morikawa	53.43%	1.87	1.73		72
3	18:20	Patrick Reed	37.21%	2.7	2.8	1.20%	69	2.16
3	18:20	Tie	9.36%	11	9		-
3	18:50	Jason Day	41.05%	2.4	2.2		71
3	18:50	Sungjae Im	49.60%	2	2.25	4.60%	71	-4.6
3	18:50	Tie	9.34%	11	9		-
3	19:10	Scottie Scheffler	58.26%	1.72	1.57		72
3	19:10	Tyrrell Hatton	32.66%	3.1	3.4	2.30%	75	-2.3
3	19:10	Tie	9.08%	11	9		-
3	19:30	Rory McIlroy	53.16%	1.88	1.75		66
3	19:30	Corey Conners	37.28%	2.7	3	3.00%	70	-3
3	19:30	Tie	9.56%	10	9		-

Round	Time	Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Score	P/L
4	14:50	Hideki Matsuyama	48.98%	2	2.1	1.30%	66	1.43
4	14:50	Akshay Bhatia	42.18%	2.4	2.35		71
4	14:50	Tie	8.83%	11	9		-
4	15:00	Justin Thomas	47.49%	2.1	1.95		70
4	15:00	Min Woo Lee	42.80%	2.3	2.25		74
4	15:00	Tie	9.70%	10	9		-
4	15:10	J.J. Spaun	46.87%	2.1	2.05		75
4	15:10	Brian Harman	43.79%	2.3	2.15		71
4	15:10	Tie	9.33%	11	9		-
4	15:20	Patrick Cantlay	54.23%	1.84	1.85	0.20%	71	0.17
4	15:20	Wyndham Clark	36.50%	2.7	2.4		74
4	15:20	Tie	9.27%	11	9		-
4	15:30	J.T. Poston	57.11%	1.75	1.83	2.70%	73	-2.7
4	15:30	Danny Willett	34.29%	2.9	2.63		73
4	15:30	Tie	8.60%	12	9		-
4	15:40	Sam Burns	47.32%	2.1	2.05		75
4	15:40	Stephan Jaeger	42.97%	2.3	2.2		78
4	15:40	Tie	9.70%	10	9		-
4	16:00	Matt Fitzpatrick	46.27%	2.2	2		73
4	16:00	Nick Taylor	44.19%	2.3	2.38	1.90%	73	-1.9
4	16:00	Tie	9.53%	10	9		-
4	16:10	Tom Kim	45.54%	2.2	2		79
4	16:10	Charl Schwartzel	45.11%	2.2	2.37	2.50%	72	3.43
4	16:10	Tie	9.34%	11	9		-
4	16:20	Tommy Fleetwood	59.01%	1.69	1.62		69
4	16:20	Davis Riley	32.01%	3.1	3.2	0.60%	69	-0.6
4	16:20	Tie	8.98%	11	9.5		-
4	16:30	Daniel Berger	57.69%	1.73	1.75	0.60%	69	-0.6
4	16:30	Bubba Watson	33.21%	3	2.87		68
4	16:30	Tie	9.10%	11	9		-
4	16:40	Aaron Rai	50.17%	1.99	2.1	2.40%	70	2.64
4	16:40	Sahith Theegala	40.47%	2.5	2.25		71
4	16:40	Tie	9.36%	11	9		-
4	16:50	Denny McCarthy	49.96%	2	2		71
4	16:50	Michael Kim	41.18%	2.4	2.2		71
4	16:50	Tie	8.85%	11	9		-
4	17:00	Maverick McNealy	45.68%	2.2	2		73
4	17:00	Harris English	44.87%	2.2	2.25	0.40%	68	0.5
4	17:00	Tie	9.44%	11	9		-
4	17:20	Jon Rahm	49.54%	2	1.95		69
4	17:20	Joaquin Niemann	41.67%	2.4	2.3		72
4	17:20	Tie	8.78%	11	9		-
4	17:30	Byeong Hun An	49.06%	2	1.91		71
4	17:30	Rasmus Hojgaard	41.74%	2.4	2.38		74
4	17:30	Tie	9.19%	11	9		-
4	17:40	Jordan Spieth	50.14%	1.99	1.73		70
4	17:40	Max Greyserman	40.80%	2.5	2.88	4.70%	74	-4.7
4	17:40	Tie	9.06%	11	9		-
4	17:50	Tyrrell Hatton	54.84%	1.82	1.73		71
4	17:50	Matt McCarty	35.81%	2.8	3	1.90%	71	-1.9
4	17:50	Tie	9.35%	11	9		-
4	18:00	Davis Thompson	47.34%	2.1	1.91		79
4	18:00	Tom Hoge	42.94%	2.3	2.3		71
4	18:00	Tie	9.71%	10	9		-
4	18:10	Collin Morikawa	52.19%	1.92	1.85		72
4	18:10	Viktor Hovland	39.07%	2.6	2.62	0.70%	73	-0.7
4	18:10	Tie	8.74%	11	9		-
4	18:20	Sungjae Im	55.31%	1.81	1.91	3.10%	69	2.82
4	18:20	Max Homa	35.86%	2.8	2.6		71
4	18:20	Tie	8.83%	11	9		-
4	18:40	Xander Schauffele	58.19%	1.72	1.55		71
4	18:40	Nico Echavarria	32.95%	3	3.25	1.60%	84	-1.6
4	18:40	Tie	8.86%	11	9.5		-
4	18:50	Justin Rose	49.97%	2	1.8		66
4	18:50	Zach Johnson	40.86%	2.4	2.75	3.50%	71	-3.5
4	18:50	Tie	9.16%	11	9		-
4	19:00	Scottie Scheffler	58.93%	1.7	1.65		69
4	19:00	Shane Lowry	32.18%	3.1	3		81
4	19:00	Tie	8.89%	11	9		-
4	19:10	Ludvig Aberg	51.17%	1.95	1.8		72
4	19:10	Jason Day	39.33%	2.5	2.62	0.90%	72	-0.9
4	19:10	Tie	9.50%	11	9		-
4	19:20	Corey Conners	52.50%	1.9	2	2.50%	75	-2.5
4	19:20	Patrick Reed	38.48%	2.6	2.25		69
4	19:20	Tie	9.02%	11	9		-
4	19:30	Rory McIlroy	49.93%	2	2.05	1.10%	73	1.16
4	19:30	Bryson DeChambeau	41.16%	2.4	2.35		75
4	19:30	Tie	8.90%	11	9		-

Round	Time	Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Score	P/L
1	13:02	Michael Kim	50.48%	1.98	2.2	4.60%	71	2.4
1	14:58	Keegan Bradley	39.15%	2.6	2.88	3.40%	74	-2
1	17:33	Patrick Cantlay	48.87%	2	2.2	3.10%	74	-2
2	14:25	Patrick Cantlay	47.32%	2.1	2.38	4.60%	72	-2
2	12:40	Rafael Campos	28.09%	3.6	4.5	3.80%	73	7
2	17:50	Nick Dunlap	21.28%	4.7	6.5	3.50%	71	11
3	18:50	Sungjae Im	49.60%	2	2.25	4.60%	71	-2
3	19:30	Corey Conners	37.28%	2.7	3	3.00%	70	-2
3	16:50	Wyndham Clark	50.16%	1.99	2.1	2.40%	75	-2
4	17:40	Max Greyserman	40.80%	2.5	2.88	4.70%	74	-2
4	18:50	Zach Johnson	40.86%	2.4	2.75	3.50%	71	-2
4	18:20	Sungjae Im	55.31%	1.81	1.91	3.10%	69	1.82

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Round - the round for which the simulation results are displayed
• Time - the players' tee-time in this round
• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• Win% - our estimated probability of the player winning this 18-hole market
• TT Odds - The Win% value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win their 18-hole market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Score - The player's score in this round - this is added when before the start of the next round
• P/L - The profit on the advised play - this is added when the 18-hole scores are included

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised plays for each round.

Unlike the TT Win Probabilities where the advised plays are at stakes based on the Kelly criterion, advised stakes for 18-hole plays are Half Kelly stakes. As only one player can win a tournament, bets on differnt players in an outright market are not independent of each other. However, bets on different players to win different 18-hole matches are independent of each other and so are more volatile as a whole. As a result, Half Kelly stakes are provided in the table above, whereas (Full) Kelly stakes are provided in the table for outright markets. The TT 18-Hole Match Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

This table will be populated in the morning before the start of each round.

TT 18-Match Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

The Half Kelly stake is simply half the values of the above equation. Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Half Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.