Simulation Results: John Deere Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.42%	238	151		71
Aaron Wise	0.01%	10000	1501		39
Adam Hadwin	0.36%	278	201		127
Adam Schenk	0.08%	1250	501		127
Adam Svensson	0.28%	357	181		80
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.63%	159	126		51
Aldrich Potgieter	0.48%	208	56		107
Alejandro Tosti	0.05%	2000	501		127
Andrew Novak	1.15%	87	46		121
Andrew Putnam	0.93%	108	101		51
Augusto Nunez	0.05%	2000	1501		127
Austin Eckroat	0.45%	222	151		58
Austin Smotherman	0.41%	244	91		58
Beau Hossler	0.80%	125	101		39
Ben Griffin	4.49%	22	16		21
Ben Kohles	1.21%	83	76		3
Ben Martin	0.05%	2000	2501		107
Ben Silverman	0.35%	286	401	0.10%	127	-0.1	Betfred: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blades Brown	0.74%	135	67		12
Brendon Todd	0.06%	1667	2001		95
Brian Campbell	0.20%	500	251		107
Brice Garnett	0.33%	303	226		95
Cameron Champ	0.09%	1111	351		127
Camilo Villegas	0.06%	1667	901		65
Carson Young	0.71%	141	101		107
Chad Ramey	0.32%	313	201		135
Chan Kim	0.63%	159	161		51
Chandler Blanchet	0.31%	323	176		138
Chandler Phillips	0.27%	370	401		15
Chris Gotterup	4.03%	25	17		1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.61%	62	56		12
Christo Lamprecht	0.07%	1429	551		140
Daniel Berger	1.17%	85	56		80
Danny Walker	0.09%	1111	601		142
Darin Fisher	0.00%	10000	5001		143
David Lipsky	0.30%	333	251		21
David Skinns	0.25%	400	301		33
Davis Chatfield	0.12%	833	751		33
Davis Riley	0.07%	1429	601		65
Davis Thompson	1.26%	79	51		26
Denny McCarthy	1.97%	51	41		107
Doug Ghim	1.65%	61	46		6
Dylan Frittelli	0.21%	476	401		95
Dylan Wu	0.23%	435	401		95
Emiliano Grillo	1.10%	91	71		26
Eric Cole	2.14%	47	31		39
Erik Van Rooyen	0.35%	286	251		26
Fabian Gomez	0.14%	714	501		74
Garrick Higgo	0.48%	208	141		107
Gordon Sargent	0.03%	3333	1001		78
Hank Lebioda	0.17%	588	351		95
Haotong Li	0.54%	185	91		95
Harry Higgs	0.18%	556	351		21
Hayden Springer	0.27%	370	201		58
J.T. Poston	2.62%	38	29		51
Jackson Koivun	5.11%	20	23	0.80%	121	-0.8	Bresbet: 18/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jackson Suber	1.03%	97	56		6
Jacob Bridgeman	3.30%	30	29		26
Jeffrey Kang	0.15%	667	551		80
Jeremy Paul	0.13%	769	1001		140
Jhonattan Vegas	0.45%	222	161
Jimmy Stanger	0.35%	286	226		80
Joe Highsmith	0.05%	2000	751		95
Joel Dahmen	0.22%	455	276		46
John VanDerLaan	0.15%	667	501		127
Johnny Keefer	1.14%	88	67		80
Jonathan Byrd	0.06%	1667	1501		71
Jordan Spieth	2.05%	49	34		58
Justin Lower	0.11%	909	601		107
Karl Vilips	0.24%	417	251		39
Keegan Bradley	2.70%	37	29		26
Keita Nakajima	0.73%	137	126		46
Keith Mitchell	2.57%	39	26		51
Kensei Hirata	0.16%	625	401		95
Kevin Roy	0.44%	227	176		107
Kevin Streelman	0.16%	625	501		80
Kevin Yu	0.85%	118	81		15
Kris Ventura	0.43%	233	201		121
Lanto Griffin	0.35%	286	276		39
Lee Hodges	0.40%	250	151		3
Lucas Glover	0.54%	185	141		3
Luke Clanton	0.32%	313	161		95
Luke Gutschewski	0.13%	769	1501	0.10%	51	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke List	0.08%	1250	501		127
Mac Meissner	1.71%	58	56		6
Mackenzie Hughes	0.65%	154	141		46
Marcelo Rozo	0.07%	1429	751		107
Mark Hubbard	0.46%	217	226		46
Martin Laird	0.14%	714	751		107
Mason Howell	0.02%	5000	1501		138
Matt Kuchar	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	15	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace	1.71%	58	46		33
Matthieu Pavon	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	107	-0.1	Bresbet: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Max Greyserman	1.23%	81	61		80
Max Homa	1.46%	68	67		2
Max McGreevy	1.06%	94	81		51
Michael Brennan	0.92%	109	46		33
Michael Feagles	0.08%	1250	1251		74
Michael Kim	1.35%	74	51		107
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.20%	83	36		80
Neal Shipley	0.45%	222	201		80
Nicholas Lindheim	0.00%	10000	1001		74
Nick Dunlap	0.13%	769	401		33
Nick Hardy	0.11%	909	701		80
Noah Goodwin	0.20%	500	401		121
Patrick Adler	0.00%	10000	3001		95
Patrick Fishburn	0.54%	185	176		67
Patrick Rodgers	0.67%	149	176	0.10%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire	0.06%	1667	1251		121
Paul Peterson	0.26%	385	401		95
Peter Malnati	0.06%	1667	1501		58
Pierceson Coody	1.68%	60	46		39
Pontus Nyholm	0.10%	1000	501		26
Preston Stout	0.01%	10000	151		15
Rafael Campos	0.03%	3333	2501		67
Rickie Fowler	2.14%	47	41		15
Rico Hoey	1.04%	96	67		80
Robert Streb	0.01%	10000	5001		107
Ryan Brehm	0.03%	3333	5001		79
Ryan Voois	0.13%	769	601		77
Ryo Hisatsune	1.19%	84	46		9
Seamus Power	0.85%	118	101		144
Seung-Yul Noh	0.35%	286	201		135
Stephan Jaeger	0.52%	192	126		15
Steven Fisk	0.84%	119	111		67
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.81%	123	56		80
Sungjae Im	1.53%	65	46		71
Takumi Kanaya	0.60%	167	161		80
Taylor Moore	0.85%	118	86		95
Taylor Pendrith	1.22%	82	67		121
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.84%	119	101		135
Tom Hoge	0.44%	227	161		33
Tom Kim	1.91%	52	31		46
Tony Finau	1.02%	98	67		58
Trace Crowe	0.17%	588	351		39
Troy Merritt	0.14%	714	1001		21
Tyler Duncan	0.19%	526	476		12
Vince Whaley	0.34%	294	251		107
Webb Simpson	0.22%	455	226		80
William Mouw	0.88%	114	101		26
Zac Blair	0.68%	147	161	0.10%	9	0.76666666666667	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zach Bauchou	0.78%	128	81		67
Zach Johnson	0.65%	154	151		9
Zecheng Dou	0.37%	270	151		21

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.80%	125	101		21
Aaron Wise	0.19%	526	301		9
Adam Hadwin	0.43%	233	126		123
Adam Schenk	0.25%	400	176		87
Adam Svensson	0.38%	263	126		67
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.95%	105	91		101
Aldrich Potgieter	0.50%	200	61		131
Alejandro Tosti	0.18%	556	176		131
Andrew Novak	0.77%	130	61		101
Andrew Putnam	1.23%	81	91	0.10%	21	-0.1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Augusto Nunez	0.16%	625	351		123
Austin Eckroat	0.52%	192	101		87
Austin Smotherman	0.78%	128	91		9
Beau Hossler	1.05%	95	91		67
Ben Griffin	2.55%	39	34		52
Ben Kohles	1.29%	78	76		6
Ben Martin	0.18%	556	351		101
Ben Silverman	0.40%	250	176		123
Blades Brown	1.08%	93	71		52
Brendon Todd	0.32%	313	351		67
Brian Campbell	0.61%	164	151		67
Brice Garnett	0.36%	278	126		101
Cameron Champ	0.20%	500	176		101
Camilo Villegas	0.33%	303	226		87
Carson Young	0.54%	185	91		123
Chad Ramey	0.36%	278	141		123
Chan Kim	0.96%	104	101		37
Chandler Blanchet	0.71%	141	126		67
Chandler Phillips	0.37%	270	176		52
Chris Gotterup	1.50%	67	34		9
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.91%	110	67		37
Christo Lamprecht	0.33%	303	201		141
Daniel Berger	1.27%	79	67		37
Danny Walker	0.22%	455	201		144
Darin Fisher	0.00%	10000	601		143
David Lipsky	0.67%	149	126		21
David Skinns	0.36%	278	141		101
Davis Chatfield	0.26%	385	226		52
Davis Riley	0.33%	303	201		6
Davis Thompson	1.32%	76	67		52
Denny McCarthy	1.06%	94	61		87
Doug Ghim	1.58%	63	61		52
Dylan Frittelli	0.35%	286	176		67
Dylan Wu	0.35%	286	176		101
Emiliano Grillo	0.74%	135	71		67
Eric Cole	1.77%	56	46		140
Erik Van Rooyen	0.74%	135	126		67
Fabian Gomez	0.48%	208	201		101
Garrick Higgo	0.48%	208	101		87
Gordon Sargent	0.12%	833	226		21
Hank Lebioda	0.30%	333	176		87
Haotong Li	0.90%	111	91		21
Harry Higgs	0.29%	345	176		21
Hayden Springer	0.62%	161	126		9
J.T. Poston	1.92%	52	41		37
Jackson Koivun	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	123	-0.2	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jackson Suber	0.72%	139	61		37
Jacob Bridgeman	2.14%	47	46		21
Jeffrey Kang	0.48%	208	181		87
Jeremy Paul	0.30%	333	251		101
Jimmy Stanger	0.42%	238	151		101
Joe Highsmith	0.17%	588	201		131
Joel Dahmen	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	9	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.26%	385	201		131
Johnny Keefer	1.29%	78	71		87
Jonathan Byrd	0.19%	526	301		52
Jordan Spieth	1.75%	57	46		67
Justin Lower	0.24%	417	201		101
Karl Vilips	0.37%	270	131		101
Keegan Bradley	1.20%	83	41		67
Keita Nakajima	0.57%	175	91		67
Keith Mitchell	1.25%	80	41		123
Kensei Hirata	0.29%	345	176		37
Kevin Roy	0.83%	120	101		52
Kevin Streelman	0.47%	213	201		67
Kevin Yu	0.69%	145	71		9
Kris Ventura	0.82%	122	126		52
Lanto Griffin	0.41%	244	176		21
Lee Hodges	0.75%	133	101		3
Lucas Glover	0.97%	103	91		1
Luke Clanton	0.36%	278	111		52
Luke Gutschewski	0.42%	238	351	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke List	0.40%	250	201		131
Mac Meissner	0.96%	104	67		21
Mackenzie Hughes	0.95%	105	91		101
Marcelo Rozo	0.36%	278	226		101
Mark Hubbard	0.86%	116	111		101
Martin Laird	0.27%	370	226		101
Mason Howell	0.13%	769	351		101
Matt Kuchar	0.64%	156	111		101
Matt Wallace	1.55%	65	56		21
Matthieu Pavon	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	101	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Max Greyserman	0.86%	116	67		87
Max Homa	1.52%	66	71	0.10%	21	-0.1	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Max McGreevy	1.29%	78	81	0.10%	87	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Brennan	1.11%	90	51		9
Michael Feagles	0.36%	278	351	0.10%	52	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Kim	0.85%	118	67		101
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.80%	125	51		37
Neal Shipley	0.77%	130	126		101
Nicholas Lindheim	0.05%	2000	301		52
Nick Dunlap	0.44%	227	176		21
Nick Hardy	0.44%	227	226		131
Noah Goodwin	0.32%	313	201		37
Patrick Adler	0.00%	10000	451		67
Patrick Fishburn	0.91%	110	111		6
Patrick Rodgers	0.57%	175	126
Patton Kizzire	0.15%	667	276		87
Paul Peterson	0.38%	263	201		101
Peter Malnati	0.20%	500	351		87
Pierceson Coody	1.55%	65	51		52
Pontus Nyholm	0.25%	400	201		37
Preston Stout	0.15%	667	111		9
Rafael Campos	0.22%	455	351		9
Rickie Fowler	1.06%	94	56		67
Rico Hoey	1.27%	79	71		37
Robert Streb	0.18%	556	451		87
Ryan Brehm	0.27%	370	401		37
Ryan Voois	0.27%	370	226		37
Ryo Hisatsune	1.29%	78	56		21
Seamus Power	1.14%	88	91		141
Seung-Yul Noh	0.73%	137	126		131
Stephan Jaeger	0.89%	112	101		3
Steven Fisk	0.61%	164	91		37
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.73%	137	67		67
Sungjae Im	0.82%	122	61		37
Takumi Kanaya	0.49%	204	111		67
Taylor Moore	0.62%	161	81		67
Taylor Pendrith	1.29%	78	67		37
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.70%	143	91		138
Tom Hoge	0.79%	127	101		123
Tom Kim	1.03%	97	46		21
Tony Finau	0.74%	135	71		67
Trace Crowe	0.54%	185	151		52
Troy Merritt	0.51%	196	226	0.10%	9	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Duncan	0.57%	175	181		9
Vince Whaley	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	138	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Webb Simpson	0.60%	167	126		67
Will Gordon	0.21%	476			67
William Mouw	1.12%	89	91		9
Zac Blair	0.97%	103	101		1
Zach Bauchou	0.59%	169	81		52
Zach Johnson	0.55%	182	101		3
Zecheng Dou	0.43%	233	111		21

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jackson Koivun	5.11%	20	23	0.80%	121	-2	Bresbet: 18/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Matt Kuchar	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	15	-2	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Matthieu Pavon	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	107	-2	Bresbet: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
FRL: Jackson Koivun	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	123	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Max Homa	1.52%	66	71	0.10%	21	-1	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Max McGreevy	1.29%	78	81	0.10%	87	-1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Andrew Putnam	1.23%	81	91	0.10%	21	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Matthieu Pavon	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	101	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Vince Whaley	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	138	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.