Simulation Results: John Deere Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.12% 833 501 112
Adam Hadwin 0.42% 238 176 124
Adam Schenk 0.37% 270 176 80
Adam Svensson 0.42% 238 201 44
Aldrich Potgieter 0.60% 167 46 65
Alejandro Tosti 0.25% 400 176 66
Alex Smalley 1.33% 75 51 80
Anders Albertson 0.08% 1250 1001 130
Andrew Putnam 1.92% 52 71 0.50% 154 -0.5 888sport: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Austin Cook 0.03% 3333 2501 119
Austin Eckroat 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 11 -0.1 888sport: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Beau Hossler 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 11 -0.1 888sport: 110/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ben Griffin 3.53% 28 17 80
Ben Kohles 0.42% 238 226 44
Ben Martin 0.22% 455 301 66
Ben Silverman 0.56% 179 301 0.20% 148 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin James 0.24% 417 251 93
Braden Thornberry 0.08% 1250 1001 138
Brandon Matthews 0.00% 10000 4001 143
Brandt Snedeker 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 33 -0.1 Bresbet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Valdes 0.14% 714 501 41
Brian Campbell 0.26% 385 351 1
Brice Garnett 0.45% 222 201 124
Bronson Burgoon 0.07% 1429 1001 44
Bud Cauley 1.52% 66 41 33
Cameron Champ 0.47% 213 81 27
Camilo Villegas 0.11% 909 1001 33
Carson Herron 0.11% 909 4001 0.10% 150 -0.1 Bet365: 4000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Young 0.45% 222 201 5
Chad Ramey 0.45% 222 176 130
Chan Kim 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 130 -0.2 888sport: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chandler Phillips 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 80 -0.1 888sport: 100/1, 8pl, 1/5
Chesson Hadley 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 80 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Chris Gotterup 1.16% 86 41 21
Chris Kirk 1.80% 56 36 64
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.51% 66 71 0.10% 103 -0.1 888sport: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Cristobal Del Solar 0.07% 1429 1001 54
Danny Willett 0.33% 303 301 119
David Ford 0.02% 5000 501 80
David Lipsky 0.13% 769 751 3
David Skinns 0.26% 385 301 119
Davis Thompson 1.72% 58 34 18
Denny McCarthy 2.59% 39 26 11
Doug Ghim 0.92% 109 91 31
Dylan Frittelli 0.10% 1000 601 93
Dylan Wu 0.26% 385 276 54
Emiliano Grillo 1.33% 75 67 2
Eric Cole 1.01% 99 81 60
Frankie Capan 0.09% 1111 1001 143
Garrick Higgo 0.43% 233 176 27
Gordon Sargent 0.14% 714 601 62
Greyson Sigg 0.43% 233 201 66
Harrison Endycott 0.07% 1429 1001 143
Harry Higgs 0.25% 400 226 148
Hayden Buckley 0.13% 769 401 143
Hayden Springer 0.52% 192 176 44
Henrik Norlander 0.80% 125 126 57
Isaiah Salinda 0.47% 213 126 119
J.T. Poston 2.22% 45 41 103
Jackson Koivun 0.21% 476 101 11
Jackson Suber 0.43% 233 201 66
Jacob Bridgeman 1.22% 82 71 5
Jake Knapp 1.24% 81 41 21
James Hahn 0.07% 1429 1001 63
Jason Day 3.63% 28 26 93
Jay Giannetto 0.00% 10000 5001 138
Jeremy Paul 0.28% 357 251 33
Jesper Svensson 0.60% 167 101 44
Joe Highsmith 0.65% 154 126 112
Joel Dahmen 0.33% 303 176 57
John Pak 0.20% 500 351 93
Joseph Bramlett 0.45% 222 201 93
Josh Radcliff 0.00% 10000 1001 66
Justin Lower 0.34% 294 276 44
Kaito Onishi 0.12% 833 1001 103
Karl Vilips 0.20% 500 201 112
Keith Mitchell 1.25% 80 61 44
Kevin Kisner 0.04% 2500 2001 103
Kevin Roy 1.03% 97 67 3
Kevin Velo 0.10% 1000 601 152
Kevin Yu 1.50% 67 36 21
Kris Ventura 0.60% 167 151 27
Kurt Kitayama 1.22% 82 67 5
Kyle Stanley 0.00% 10000 5001 130
Lanto Griffin 0.33% 303 251 66
Lee Hodges 1.17% 85 67 21
Lucas Glover 2.16% 46 41 5
Luke Clanton 1.68% 60 41 80
Luke List 0.46% 217 176 80
Mac Meissner 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 93 -0.2 888sport: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mark Hubbard 1.18% 85 56 33
Martin Laird 0.28% 357 401 80
Mason Andersen 0.05% 2000 1001 130
Matt Kuchar 1.15% 87 176 0.60% 5 3 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty 0.94% 106 71 80
Matt NeSmith 0.17% 588 401 112
Matthew Riedel 0.17% 588 751 93
Max Homa 0.60% 167 126 5
Max McGreevy 0.48% 208 101 130
Michael Kim 1.69% 59 51 80
Michael La Sasso 0.01% 10000 351 124
Michael Thorbjornsen 1.47% 68 29 21
Nate Lashley 0.30% 333 301 27
Nicholas Lindheim 0.09% 1111 751 154
Nick Dunlap 0.20% 500 601 11
Nick Hardy 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 103 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria 0.84% 119 56 124
Noah Goodwin 0.28% 357 301 138
Patrick Fishburn 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 18 -0.1 888sport: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 93 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire 0.17% 588 401 54
Paul Peterson 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Waring 0.11% 909 1001 130
Peter Malnati 0.10% 1000 1001 93
Petr Hruby 0.06% 1667 2501 66
Philip Knowles 0.10% 1000 751 41
Pierceson Coody 1.25% 80 46 150
Preston Summerhays 0.09% 1111 1001 138
Quade Cummins 0.52% 192 126 57
Rafael Campos 0.11% 909 1001 138
Rickie Fowler 1.65% 61 61 18
Ricky Castillo 0.53% 189 151 130
Rico Hoey 0.99% 101 81 11
Rikuya Hoshino 0.30% 333 251 41
Ryan Gerard 1.08% 93 41 66
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 3001 153
Ryo Hisatsune 1.03% 97 81 60
Sam Ryder 0.65% 154 126 66
Sam Stevens 1.40% 71 56 21
Sami Valimaki 0.80% 125 91 93
Seamus Power 1.00% 100 126 0.20% 44 -0.2 888sport: 90/1, 8pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim 1.89% 53 36 11
Stephan Jaeger 1.28% 78 81 154
Steven Fisk 0.51% 196 126 112
Sungjae Im 2.14% 47 36 124
Takumi Kanaya 0.50% 200 151 80
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 1001 80
Taylor Montgomery 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 31 -0.1 888sport: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore 0.97% 103 91 33
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.23% 435 251 103
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.66% 60 61 119
Thriston Lawrence 0.75% 133 81 44
Tim Widing 0.11% 909 751 124
Tom Kim 1.15% 87 81 66
Trace Crowe 0.31% 323 226 103
Trevor Cone 0.11% 909 351 66
Trey Mullinax 0.41% 244 176 143
Victor Perez 1.20% 83 81 66
Vince Covello 0.01% 10000 5001
Vince Whaley 0.96% 104 91 33
Will Chandler 0.06% 1667 1001 112
Will Gordon 0.26% 385 226 103
William Mouw 0.44% 227 201 66
Zac Blair 0.17% 588 501 33
Zach Johnson 0.58% 172 151 44
Zack Fischer 0.00% 10000 1001 103

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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