Simulation Results: ISCO Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.85%	118	71		34
Adam Hadwin	0.71%	141	126		117
Adam Schenk	0.13%	769	251		82
Adam Svensson	0.57%	175	106		66
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	1.50%	67	51		39
Alejandro Tosti	0.05%	2000	201		30
Anders Larson	0.00%	10000	1501		117
Ashton Van Horne	0.05%	2000	751		142
Austin Cook	0.02%	5000	1001		68
Beau Hossler	2.12%	47	46		21
Ben James	1.33%	75	46		15
Ben Kohles	4.55%	22	29	1.10%	15	-1.1	Betfred: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Martin	0.12%	833	551		21
Ben Silverman	0.62%	161	161		3
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.49%	204	141		127
Brandon Stone	0.38%	263	141		82
Brendon Todd	0.08%	1250	1501		141
Brice Garnett	0.78%	128	126		82
Cameron Champ	0.08%	1250	251		39
Chad Ramey	0.64%	156	101		30
Chan Kim	1.51%	66	61		34
Chandler Blanchet	0.57%	175	111		135
Chandler Phillips	1.04%	96	91		15
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	6.12%	16	26	2.40%	21	-2.4	Betfred: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.05%	2000	251		64
Cooper Musselman	0.03%	3333	1001		68
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		143
Daniel Iceman	0.00%	10000	2501		139
David Law	0.22%	455	226		108
David Lipsky	1.23%	81	81		49
David Micheluzzi	0.04%	2500	751		82
David Skinns	1.12%	89	71		127
Davis Bryant	0.31%	323	101		55
Davis Chatfield	0.61%	164	176		5
Davis Thompson	2.77%	36	23		68
Denny McCarthy	2.54%	39	36		39
Drew Doyle	0.01%	10000	501		108
Fabian Gomez	0.32%	313	181		59
Felix Mory	0.09%	1111	451		21
Filippo Celli	0.10%	1000	251		68
Gordon Sargent	0.04%	2500	301		82
Hank Lebioda	0.38%	263	151		127
Harry Higgs	0.54%	185	101		108
Hayden Springer	0.63%	159	101		117
Hugo Townsend	0.11%	909	226		55
Ivan Cantero	0.10%	1000	251		82
J.B. Holmes	0.00%	10000	1251		135
J.C. Ritchie	1.14%	88	81		108
Jack Senior	0.12%	833	551		82
Jackson Koivun	5.21%	19	15		10
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.96%	51	61	0.30%	30	-0.3	BetVictor: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Morrison	0.08%	1250	751
Jansen Preston	0.00%	10000	1001		135
Jeffrey Kang	0.26%	385	226		99
Jens Dantorp	0.18%	556	351		108
Jeong Weon Ko	0.01%	10000	801		21
Jeremy Paul	0.18%	556	401		82
Jimmy Stanger	0.43%	233	96		143
Joel Dahmen	0.94%	106	101		30
Joel Girrbach	0.33%	303	226		34
Jonathan Byrd	0.09%	1111	401		39
Jorge Campillo	1.42%	70	71		68
Joshua Berry	0.00%	10000	2501		132
Josiah Gilbert	0.00%	10000	251		99
Justin Lower	0.22%	455	226		59
Kensei Hirata	0.37%	270	176		117
Kevin Streelman	0.36%	278	176		39
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.41%	244	151		108
Lanto Griffin	1.20%	83	81		55
Lee Hodges	2.17%	46	41		68
Lucas Glover	1.52%	66	46		5
Luke Clanton	0.57%	175	91		82
Luke List	0.12%	833	251		49
Mackenzie Hughes	2.03%	49	51	0.10%	10	-0.1	BetVictor: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Manuel Elvira	0.79%	127	86		8
Marcel Schneider	0.15%	667	301		64
Marcelo Rozo	0.05%	2000	376		139
Marcus Helligkilde	0.07%	1429	276		99
Marcus Kinhult	0.27%	370	201		59
Martin Laird	0.21%	476	351		127
Max Homa	5.75%	17	18	0.20%	39	-0.2	Spreadex: 16/1, 7pl, 1/5
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.52%	192	91		82
Miles Russell	0.18%	556	101		117
Neal Shipley	0.89%	112	71		68
Nick Dunlap	0.39%	256	126		59
Nick Hardy	0.19%	526	226		21
Niklas Lemke	0.08%	1250	401		39
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.57%	175	76		39
Patrick Fishburn	1.21%	83	71		99
Patrick Rodgers	1.00%	100	67
Patton Kizzire	0.07%	1429	551		39
Paul Peterson	0.52%	192	131		49
Peter Malnati	0.21%	476	201		117
Pontus Nyholm	0.40%	250	86		55
Preston Stout	0.41%	244	46		49
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.29%	345	201		132
Rafael Campos	0.03%	3333	751		15
Renato Paratore	0.09%	1111	301		127
Ricardo Gouveia	0.46%	217	111		68
Richie Ramsay	0.44%	227	351	0.20%	99	-0.2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rico Hoey	2.47%	40	34		49
Robert Streb	0.01%	10000	1251		82
Romain Langasque	0.90%	111	111		49
Ryan Brehm	0.01%	10000	1001		108
Sam Bairstow	0.23%	435	176		21
Scott Piercy	0.04%	2500	401		82
Sean Crocker	0.47%	213	201		82
Sebastian Garcia	0.06%	1667	351		117
Sebastian Soderberg	0.53%	189	226	0.10%	108	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh	0.57%	175	111		82
Stefano Mazzoli	0.21%	476	226		117
Stephan Jaeger	2.36%	42	31		15
Steven Fisk	1.94%	52	41		1
Takumi Kanaya	1.89%	53	81	0.70%	15	-0.7	Spreadex: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Taylor Pendrith	2.33%	43	36		2
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.78%	128	91		10
Tobias Jonsson	0.04%	2500	501		99
Todd Clements	1.04%	96	111	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Hoge	1.01%	99	76		10
Tom Vaillant	0.69%	145	126		82
Tommy Kuhl	0.00%	10000	1001		82
Trace Crowe	0.87%	115	91		68
Trey Shirley	0.00%	10000	1001		99
Troy Merritt	0.34%	294	176		59
Tyler Collet	0.01%	10000	1501		99
Tyler Duncan	0.61%	164	131		68
Ugo Coussaud	0.76%	132	91		21
Wenyi Ding	0.67%	149	101		21
Will Gordon	0.11%	909	226		68
William Mouw	2.65%	38	34		10
Zac Blair	2.43%	41	41		8
Zecheng Dou	1.93%	52	46		68

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.65%	154	81		13
Aaron Wise	0.32%	313	161		7
Adam Hadwin	1.09%	92	91		24
Adam Schenk	0.63%	159	126		80
Adam Svensson	0.95%	105	91		7
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.82%	122	67		61
Alejandro Tosti	0.32%	313	101		24
Anders Larson	0.04%	2500	351		130
Ashton Van Horne	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	112	-0.1	Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook	0.36%	278	351	0.10%	45	-0.1	BetVictor: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Beau Hossler	0.93%	108	61		61
Ben James	0.83%	120	61		7
Ben Kohles	1.88%	53	41		97
Ben Martin	0.54%	185	201		24
Ben Silverman	0.58%	172	111		24
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.97%	103	101		112
Brandon Stone	0.86%	116	101		61
Brendon Todd	0.34%	294	276		143
Brice Garnett	0.66%	152	91		61
Cameron Champ	0.29%	345	131		13
Camilo Villegas	0.37%	270	151		61
Chad Ramey	0.99%	101	91		24
Chan Kim	0.80%	125	71		5
Chandler Blanchet	0.98%	102	91		138
Chandler Phillips	0.73%	137	91		24
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.16%	46	41		112
Christo Lamprecht	0.30%	333	131		45
Cooper Musselman	0.41%	244	251		13
Daniel Gavins	0.11%	909	451		144
Daniel Iceman	0.01%	10000	451		142
Daniel Van Tonder	0.73%	137	101		61
Daniel Young	0.32%	313	171		138
Danny Walker	0.51%	196	131		61
David Law	0.47%	213	126		112
David Lipsky	1.19%	84	71		97
David Micheluzzi	0.30%	333	201		130
David Skinns	1.17%	85	71		80
Davis Bryant	0.47%	213	91		61
Davis Chatfield	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	45	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Thompson	1.60%	63	41		97
Denny McCarthy	1.57%	64	51		45
Drew Doyle	0.18%	556	201		80
Dylan Wu	0.88%	114	111		45
Euan Walker	0.35%	286	176		24
Fabian Gomez	0.50%	200	126		61
Felix Mory	0.54%	185	191		61
Filippo Celli	0.60%	167	126		45
Gordon Sargent	0.44%	227	151		97
Hank Lebioda	0.51%	196	111		130
Harry Higgs	0.55%	182	91		97
Hayden Springer	0.63%	159	91		138
Hugo Townsend	0.36%	278	126		61
Ivan Cantero	0.55%	182	126		45
J.B. Holmes	0.23%	435	351		97
J.C. Ritchie	1.22%	82	81		130
Jack Senior	0.40%	250	201		97
Jackson Koivun	1.37%	73	34		24
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.00%	100	67		24
James Morrison	0.61%	164	226	0.20%			QuinnBet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jansen Preston	0.00%	10000	351		80
Jared Wolfe	0.14%	714	226		112
Jeffrey Kang	0.79%	127	131		7
Jens Dantorp	0.39%	256	161		112
Jeong Weon Ko	0.21%	476	226		7
Jeremy Paul	0.41%	244	171		45
Jimmy Stanger	0.57%	175	91		138
Joel Dahmen	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	24	-0.1	QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Girrbach	0.78%	128	126		24
John VanDerLaan	0.74%	135	126		112
Jonathan Byrd	0.59%	169	171		97
Jorge Campillo	1.25%	80	81		80
Joshua Berry	0.23%	435	451		97
Josiah Gilbert	0.19%	526	126		80
Justin Lower	0.71%	141	126		45
Kensei Hirata	0.80%	125	111		112
Kevin Streelman	0.49%	204	111		80
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.62%	161	126		112
Kris Ventura	0.70%	143	81		45
Lanto Griffin	1.25%	80	81		80
Lee Hodges	1.01%	99	61		45
Lucas Glover	0.89%	112	61		1
Luke Clanton	1.00%	100	81		45
Luke List	0.61%	164	131		61
Mackenzie Hughes	1.42%	70	67		13
Manuel Elvira	0.68%	147	81		45
Marcel Schneider	0.72%	139	161	0.10%	61	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcelo Rozo	0.48%	208	161		112
Marcus Helligkilde	0.31%	323	151		24
Marcus Kinhult	0.78%	128	126		24
Martin Laird	0.73%	137	161	0.10%	130	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Homa	1.43%	70	34		24
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.63%	159	91		97
Miles Russell	0.45%	222	81		97
Neal Shipley	0.69%	145	71		112
Nick Dunlap	0.85%	118	101		112
Nick Hardy	0.73%	137	126		13
Niklas Lemke	0.56%	179	161		24
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.61%	164	81		24
Patrick Fishburn	0.81%	123	71		24
Patton Kizzire	0.54%	185	201		7
Paul Peterson	0.92%	109	91		80
Peter Malnati	0.46%	217	131		80
Pontus Nyholm	0.89%	112	81		5
Preston Stout	0.90%	111	61		45
Quim Vidal	0.25%	400	201		97
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.48%	208	126		97
Rafael Campos	0.27%	370	226		13
Renato Paratore	0.57%	175	161		130
Ricardo Gouveia	0.97%	103	91		61
Richie Ramsay	0.55%	182	161		112
Rico Hoey	1.50%	67	51		97
Robert Streb	0.17%	588	301		80
Romain Langasque	0.72%	139	91		13
Ryan Brehm	0.18%	556	301		80
Sam Bairstow	0.49%	204	126		24
Scott Piercy	0.28%	357	171		80
Sean Crocker	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	45	-0.1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia	0.33%	303	161		97
Sebastian Soderberg	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh	0.61%	164	91		112
Stefano Mazzoli	0.68%	147	126		130
Stephan Jaeger	1.54%	65	46		1
Steven Fisk	1.52%	66	51		1
Takumi Kanaya	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	13	-0.1	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Pendrith	0.95%	105	51		80
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.66%	152	81		13
Tobias Jonsson	0.25%	400	201		112
Todd Clements	0.73%	137	91		24
Tom Hoge	1.16%	86	67		13
Tom Vaillant	0.63%	159	91		80
Tommy Kuhl	0.11%	909	351		61
Trace Crowe	1.13%	88	81		80
Trey Shirley	0.09%	1111	351		80
Troy Merritt	0.52%	192	201		1
Tyler Collet	0.30%	333	351		61
Tyler Duncan	0.62%	161	91		13
Ugo Coussaud	1.06%	94	71		61
Vince Whaley	1.07%	93	91		61
Wenyi Ding	0.66%	152	91		24
Will Gordon	0.34%	294	131		112
William McGirt	0.19%	526	501		130
William Mouw	0.98%	102	51		45
Zac Blair	1.59%	63	61		61
Zecheng Dou	0.95%	105	61		24

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	6.12%	16	26	2.40%	21	-2	Betfred: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ben Kohles	4.55%	22	29	1.10%	15	-2	Betfred: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Takumi Kanaya	1.89%	53	81	0.70%	15	-2	Spreadex: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: James Morrison	0.61%	164	226	0.20%			QuinnBet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Takumi Kanaya	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	13	-1	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joel Dahmen	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	24	-1	QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Davis Chatfield	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	45	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sean Crocker	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	45	-1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sebastian Soderberg	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	112	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.