Simulation Results: ISCO Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.20% 500 601 131
Adam Hadwin 1.08% 93 81 69
Adam Schenk 0.90% 111 81 69
Adam Svensson 1.13% 88 67 106
Alexander Knappe 0.06% 1667 2001 95
Alexander Levy 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 24 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.13% 769 601 95
Anders Albertson 0.19% 526 401
Andrea Pavan 0.65% 154 126 69
Andreas Halvorsen 0.38% 263 151 95
Andrew Wilson 0.24% 417 251 95
Angel Ayora 0.80% 125 61 50
Austin Cook 0.09% 1111 1001 123
Beau Hossler 1.99% 50 31 14
Ben Kohles 1.16% 86 81 8
Ben Martin 0.84% 119 111 34
Ben Silverman 0.86% 116 111 28
Bill Haas 0.00% 10000 1001 69
Bjorn Akesson 0.05% 2000 1501 106
Braden Thornberry 0.16% 625 351 64
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.68% 147 101 106
Brandon Wu 0.56% 179 351 0.30% 153 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendon Doyle 0.08% 1250 751 106
Brian Stuard 0.05% 2000 1001 69
Brice Garnett 1.10% 91 91 69
Bronson Burgoon 0.23% 435 301 69
Callum Shinkwin 0.46% 217 151 64
Callum Tarren 0.41% 244 176 34
Cameron Champ 1.40% 71 29 14
Carl Yuan 0.20% 500 351 61
Carson Johnson 0.00% 10000 2501 147
Carson Young 1.38% 72 46 131
Casey Jarvis 0.25% 400 201 106
Chad Ramey 0.93% 108 71 8
Chan Kim 1.71% 58 56 14
Chandler Phillips 1.86% 54 51 81
Chez Reavie 0.21% 476 351 50
Cody Gribble 0.04% 2500 751 138
Conor Purcell 0.23% 435 301 45
Cooper Musselman 0.09% 1111 501 95
Cristobal Del Solar 0.32% 313 251 58
Daniel Iceman 0.00% 10000 3001 155
David Lipsky 0.81% 123 101 28
David Skinns 0.63% 159 126 4
Davis Bryant 0.68% 147 151 106
Drew Doyle 0.02% 5000 1001 81
Dylan Wu 0.95% 105 86 106
Emiliano Grillo 3.31% 30 19 40
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 156
Fabian Gomez 0.33% 303 251 69
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 81 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frankie Capan 0.24% 417 351 45
Gavin Green 0.51% 196 176 138
George McNeill 0.09% 1111 1501 138
Gordon Sargent 0.31% 323 151 24
Greyson Sigg 0.94% 106 81 69
Hamish Brown 0.22% 455 301 58
Harry Higgs 0.40% 250 81 28
Hayden Buckley 0.25% 400 201 106
Hayden Springer 1.33% 75 61 14
Ivan Cantero 0.45% 222 101 40
J.B. Holmes 0.02% 5000 1001 123
Jack Senior 0.36% 278 251 40
Jackson Koivun 2.36% 42 23 6
Jackson Suber 0.86% 116 71 45
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 81 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Hahn 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 49 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 500/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jannik De Bruyn 0.13% 769 751 106
Jason Dufner 0.02% 5000 801 138
Jason Scrivener 0.63% 159 161 106
Jeff Overton 0.01% 10000 2501 123
Jens Dantorp 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 95 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 143 -0.1 10Bet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Paul 1.27% 79 71 81
Jim Herman 0.00% 10000 3001 131
Joel Girrbach 0.13% 769 501 54
Joel Moscatel 0.04% 2500 1001 81
John Pak 0.48% 208 151 138
Jonathan Byrd 0.14% 714 501 64
Joseph Bramlett 1.19% 84 61 106
Josh Teater 0.45% 222 201 40
Julien Brun 0.14% 714 751 69
Justin Lower 1.06% 94 86 69
Kaito Onishi 0.29% 345 301 81
Kazuma Kobori 0.72% 139 91 123
Kevin Chappell 0.30% 333 351 81
Kevin Kisner 0.13% 769 601 8
Kevin Roy 2.67% 37 19 131
Kevin Velo 0.19% 526 201 106
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.51% 196 151 149
Kris Ventura 1.65% 61 46 45
Lanto Griffin 0.98% 102 86 61
Luke List 1.19% 84 81 8
M.J. Daffue 0.25% 400 276 58
Mac Meissner 1.34% 75 81 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manuel Elvira 0.24% 417 201 3
Marcus Armitage 1.39% 72 111 0.50% 40 -0.5 Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Byrd 0.07% 1429 401 54
Marcus Kinhult 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 123 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Hubbard 2.28% 44 29 67
Martin Laird 0.85% 118 101 34
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 149
Mason Andersen 0.14% 714 501 149
Matt NeSmith 0.42% 238 201 24
Matthew Baldwin 0.08% 1250 751 143
Matthew Riedel 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 106 -0.1 888sport: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthias Schwab 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 106 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Kieffer 0.71% 141 151 54
Michael Balcar 0.00% 10000 4001 95
Michael Thorbjornsen 2.86% 35 17 14
Mikael Lindberg 0.12% 833 501 106
Miles Russell 0.03% 3333 176 81
Nick Hardy 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 8 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Watney 0.07% 1429 501 81
Noah Goodwin 0.56% 179 126 50
Patrick Fishburn 2.46% 41 36 6
Patton Kizzire 0.55% 182 126 95
Paul Peterson 0.58% 172 226 0.10% 2 2.7625 Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Malnati 0.34% 294 301 14
Quade Cummins 1.58% 63 56 95
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.39% 256 251 131
Rafael Campos 0.32% 313 301 50
Ricardo Gouveia 0.52% 192 201 131
Richard Sterne 0.20% 500 501 81
Ricky Castillo 1.13% 88 51 34
Rico Hoey 2.96% 34 23 34
Robin Williams 0.22% 455 251 81
Ryan Brehm 0.05% 2000 1001 106
Sam Ryder 1.44% 69 51 95
Scott Jamieson 0.61% 164 176 152
Scott Piercy 0.63% 159 151 14
Seamus Power 2.11% 47 41 131
Sean O'Hair 0.08% 1250 751 123
Seonghyeon Kim 1.34% 75 46 28
Seung-Yul Noh 0.82% 122 91 95
Shubhankar Sharma 0.25% 400 401 153
Stephen Stallings 0.02% 5000 1501 67
Steven Fisk 1.18% 85 67 28
Takumi Kanaya 1.39% 72 61 81
Taylor Dickson 0.24% 417 351 147
Taylor Montgomery 1.06% 94 91 8
Thomas Aiken 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 81 -0.1 Betfred: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.68% 147 81 14
Tim Widing 0.32% 313 151 123
Tom Vaillant 0.48% 208 201 143
Tommy Gainey 0.08% 1250 1001 61
Trevor Cone 0.44% 227 126 14
Troy Merritt 0.22% 455 251 54
Tyler Duncan 0.55% 182 126 123
Vince Whaley 2.25% 44 29 4
Wenyi Ding 0.63% 159 91 34
Will Chandler 0.18% 556 401 24
Will Gordon 0.83% 120 91 14
William Mouw 1.01% 99 67 1
Zac Blair 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 1001 143

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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