Simulation Results: Houston Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.05% 2000 1501 141
Aaron Rai 2.80% 36 31 116
Adam Hadwin 0.43% 233 201 39
Adam Schenk 0.20% 500 401 128
Adam Svensson 0.32% 313 301 67
Aldrich Potgieter 0.11% 909 151 103
Alejandro Tosti 0.14% 714 251 5
Alex Smalley 1.03% 97 61 70
Anders Albertson 0.02% 5000 2501 103
Andrew Novak 0.62% 161 101 70
Antoine Rozner 0.26% 385 326 64
Austin Eckroat 0.58% 172 111 70
Beau Hossler 0.51% 196 151 128
Ben Griffin 1.23% 81 67 18
Ben Kohles 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 116 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Martin 0.18% 556 601 136
Ben Silverman 0.20% 500 601 103
Braden Thornberry 0.04% 2500 2001 89
Brandt Snedeker 0.18% 556 601 145
Bronson Burgoon 0.00% 10000 2501 128
C.T. Pan 0.27% 370 251 89
Camilo Villegas 0.09% 1111 1001 136
Carlos Sainz 0.00% 10000 4001 136
Chad Ramey 0.20% 500 501 47
Chan Kim 0.49% 204 226 39
Chandler Phillips 0.38% 263 301 32
Charles Reiter 0.00% 10000 2501 32
Charley Hoffman 0.39% 256 201 64
Chris Gotterup 0.28% 357 251 18
Cristobal Del Solar 0.03% 3333 3001 70
Danny Walker 0.19% 526 251 89
Danny Willett 0.15% 667 501 70
David Lipsky 0.11% 909 751 141
David Skinns 0.08% 1250 751 52
Davis Riley 0.31% 323 91 52
Davis Thompson 1.36% 74 36 27
Derek Bard 0.02% 5000 3001 70
Doug Ghim 0.54% 185 131 103
Emiliano Grillo 0.33% 303 251 47
Eric Cole 0.55% 182 161 15
Francesco Molinari 0.08% 1250 751 128
Frankie Capan 0.07% 1429 751 116
Gary Woodland 0.52% 192 181 2
Greyson Sigg 0.31% 323 226 89
Harris English 0.80% 125 91 18
Harry Hall 0.61% 164 101 18
Harry Higgs 0.07% 1429 1001 136
Hayden Buckley 0.03% 3333 1001 136
Hayden Springer 0.25% 400 201 15
Henrik Norlander 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 70 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.30% 333 201 11
J.J. Spaun 1.58% 63 41 70
Jackson Suber 0.13% 769 501 52
Jacob Bridgeman 1.12% 89 46 70
Jake Knapp 0.50% 200 76 27
Jason Day 1.40% 71 36 27
Jeremy Paul 0.42% 238 276 0.10% 89 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jesper Svensson 0.25% 400 151 27
Jhonattan Vegas 0.47% 213 151 141
Jimmy Walker 0.02% 5000 2501 151
Joe Highsmith 0.84% 119 61 89
Joel Dahmen 0.33% 303 161 18
John Pak 0.07% 1429 1001 69
Justin Lower 0.41% 244 201 116
Kaito Onishi 0.04% 2500 1501 70
Karl Vilips 0.18% 556 201 116
Keith Mitchell 0.76% 132 71 18
Kevin Roy 0.27% 370 251 103
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 751 70
Kevin Yu 0.71% 141 81 18
Kris Ventura 0.20% 500 401 116
Kurt Kitayama 0.69% 145 81 39
Kyle Westmoreland 0.03% 3333 1001 103
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.20% 500 601 145
Lanto Griffin 0.18% 556 401 116
Lee Hodges 0.51% 196 126 11
Luke List 0.29% 345 401 128
Mac Meissner 0.52% 192 151 39
Mackenzie Hughes 0.85% 118 81 10
Mark Hubbard 0.37% 270 376 0.10% 89 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Andersen 0.07% 1429 1501 61
Matt McCarty 0.47% 213 161 52
Matt Wallace 0.54% 185 176 70
Matteo Manassero 0.24% 417 501 39
Matthew Riedel 0.05% 2000 1001 61
Matti Schmid 0.44% 227 126 89
Maverick McNealy 1.21% 83 61 32
Max Greyserman 1.04% 96 61 128
Max McGreevy 0.52% 192 101 116
Michael Kim 1.79% 56 46 32
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.29% 345 251 39
Min Woo Lee 1.41% 71 36 1
Nate Lashley 0.12% 833 751 27
Nick Dunlap 0.31% 323 131 70
Nick Hardy 0.21% 476 501 89
Nick Taylor 0.68% 147 101 103
Nico Echavarria 0.45% 222 126 32
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.56% 179 101 116
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.47% 213 151 89
Noah Goodwin 0.22% 455 501 89
Noah Kent 0.00% 10000 2001 141
Padraig Harrington 0.11% 909 601 145
Patrick Fishburn 0.54% 185 176 128
Patrick Rodgers 0.85% 118 111 52
Patton Kizzire 0.20% 500 501 103
Paul Peterson 0.13% 769 751 70
Paul Waring 0.08% 1250 1001 150
Peter Malnati 0.07% 1429 1501 116
Philip Knowles 0.02% 5000 2501 64
Pierceson Coody 0.22% 455 226 52
Quade Cummins 0.31% 323 301 70
Rafael Campos 0.05% 2000 2501 103
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.48% 208 131 32
Rickie Fowler 0.64% 156 126 52
Ricky Castillo 0.27% 370 161 70
Rico Hoey 0.48% 208 126 11
Rikuya Hoshino 0.15% 667 501 103
Rory McIlroy 12.17% 8.2 7.5 5
Ryan Fox 0.68% 147 151 15
Ryan Gerard 0.37% 270 126 9
Ryan Palmer 0.03% 3333 2001 152
Ryo Hisatsune 0.50% 200 126 47
Sahith Theegala 0.85% 118 61 67
Sam Ryder 0.53% 189 141 61
Sam Stevens 0.73% 137 91 18
Sami Valimaki 0.20% 500 501 4
Scottie Scheffler 20.30% 4.9 5 0.40% 2 -0.0668 Ladbrokes: 3.33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Seamus Power 1.17% 85 91 0.10% 70 -0.1 William Hill: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim 1.76% 57 51 103
Stephan Jaeger 1.23% 81 51 11
Steven Fisk 0.37% 270 161 70
Sungjae Im 1.99% 50 41 60
Takumi Kanaya 0.25% 400 276 103
Taylor Dickson 0.04% 2500 1501 39
Taylor Montgomery 0.11% 909 501 128
Taylor Moore 0.83% 120 61
Taylor Pendrith 1.14% 88 46 5
Thomas Detry 1.04% 96 56 47
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.07% 1429 751 89
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.62% 161 151 70
Thriston Lawrence 0.12% 833 501 147
Tim Widing 0.13% 769 751 116
Tony Finau 1.92% 52 34 32
Trevor Cone 0.04% 2500 1501 52
Trey Mullinax 0.20% 500 276 39
Victor Perez 0.69% 145 131 18
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 4001 149
Vince Whaley 0.38% 263 301 89
Vincent Norrman 0.12% 833 751
Will Chandler 0.07% 1429 1501 147
Will Gordon 0.11% 909 601 116
William Mouw 0.08% 1250 501 47
Wilson Furr 0.01% 10000 1501 103
Wyndham Clark 1.35% 74 41 5
Zach Johnson 0.32% 313 451 0.10% 89 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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