Simulation Results: Houston Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.24%	417	201		104
Aaron Rai	1.06%	94	81
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	1001		98
Adam Schenk	0.07%	1429	1001		112
Adam Scott	2.20%	45	36		21
Adam Svensson	0.12%	833	401		76
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.45%	222	126		12
Adrien Saddier	0.22%	455	351		39
Aldrich Potgieter	0.15%	667	91		21
Alejandro Tosti	0.05%	2000	176		104
Alex Smalley	0.86%	116	67		21
Andrew Putnam	0.68%	147	251	0.30%	44	-0.3	BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.28%	357	201		39
Beau Hossler	0.25%	400	226		21
Ben Griffin	1.90%	53	41		28
Billy Horschel	0.45%	222	151		89
Brian Campbell	0.10%	1000	751		125
Brice Garnett	0.10%	1000	751		71
Bronson Burgoon	0.13%	769	501		10
Brooks Koepka	1.71%	58	23		116
Bud Cauley	0.48%	208	151
Casey Russell	0.00%	10000	2001		125
Chad Ramey	0.44%	227	176		28
Chandler Blanchet	0.44%	227	151		130
Chandler Phillips	0.23%	435	401		130
Charley Hoffman	0.02%	5000	1501		89
Chris Gotterup	1.92%	52	21		6
Chris Kirk	0.80%	125	176	0.20%	51	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.19%	84	111	0.30%	51	-0.3	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.04%	2500	351		98
Cole Hammer	0.04%	2500	601		76
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.42%	238	201		104
Danny Walker	0.13%	769	501		68
Danny Willett	0.02%	5000	1501		56
David Ford	0.33%	303	176		104
David Lipsky	0.35%	286	176		125
Davis Chatfield	0.15%	667	751		104
Davis Riley	0.06%	1667	501		60
Davis Thompson	1.17%	85	81		89
Denny McCarthy	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	12	-0.2	William Hill: 125/1, 6pl, 1/4
Doug Ghim	0.49%	204	126		89
Dylan Wu	0.28%	357	251		104
Emiliano Grillo	0.50%	200	201		71
Eric Cole	0.68%	147	111		51
Erik Van Rooyen	0.07%	1429	501		48
Garrick Higgo	0.28%	357	251		69
Gary Woodland	0.65%	154	86		1
Gordon Sargent	0.09%	1111	351		112
Hank Lebioda	0.21%	476	401		76
Haotong Li	0.47%	213	101		89
Harris English	2.24%	45	41		21
Harry Hall	1.39%	72	46		28
Isaiah Salinda	0.16%	625	251		104
J.T. Poston	0.79%	127	101		76
Jackson Suber	0.19%	526	501		28
Jake Knapp	2.76%	36	23		6
Jason Day	1.46%	68	67		6
Jeffrey Kang	0.02%	5000	1001		39
Jesper Svensson	0.46%	217	151		69
Jhonattan Vegas	0.16%	625	301		14
Jimmy Stanger	0.17%	588	501		56
Joe Highsmith	0.07%	1429	751		76
John Parry	0.58%	172	151		48
John VanDerLaan	0.22%	455	401		116
Johnny Keefer	0.39%	256	201		3
Jordan Smith	1.24%	81	81		44
Karl Vilips	0.13%	769	501		19
Keith Mitchell	1.29%	78	51		14
Kensei Hirata	0.13%	769	751		116
Kevin Roy	0.51%	196	176		65
Kevin Yu	0.40%	250	176		76
Kris Ventura	0.43%	233	226		116
Kristoffer Reitan	0.52%	192	91		116
Kurt Kitayama	1.94%	52	34		60
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.01%	10000	1001		98
Lee Hodges	0.65%	154	111		65
Lucas Glover	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	133	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Clanton	0.18%	556	276		75
Mac Meissner	0.57%	175	126		28
Mackenzie Hughes	0.87%	115	101		76
Marcelo Rozo	0.04%	2500	1501
Marco Penge	0.67%	149	34		76
Mark Hubbard	0.27%	370	401		98
Mason Howell	0.00%	10000	501		76
Matt Wallace	0.67%	149	126		51
Matthieu Pavon	0.43%	233	251		51
Matti Schmid	0.64%	156	126		74
Max Greyserman	0.74%	135	81		116
Max McGreevy	0.53%	189	126		19
Michael Brennan	0.40%	250	126		28
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.33%	75	34		14
Min Woo Lee	3.05%	33	17		3
Neal Shipley	0.15%	667	501		89
Nick Dunlap	0.05%	2000	601		76
Nico Echavarria	0.67%	149	81		98
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.81%	55	34		2
Patrick Fishburn	0.22%	455	351		98
Patrick Rodgers	1.17%	85	71		116
Patton Kizzire	0.13%	769	751		116
Paul Waring	0.04%	2500	1501		39
Peter Malnati	0.06%	1667	1001		65
Pierceson Coody	0.75%	133	51		135
Pontus Nyholm	0.10%	1000	501		14
Rafael Campos	0.04%	2500	2001		125
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.10%	91	67		28
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.54%	185	126		76
Rickie Fowler	2.91%	34	29		89
Ricky Castillo	0.79%	127	81		44
Rico Hoey	0.66%	152	91		28
Ryan Fox	0.97%	103	71		112
Ryan Gerard	1.48%	68	46		89
Sahith Theegala	1.05%	95	56		10
Sam Burns	2.89%	35	26		21
Sam Ryder	0.19%	526	351		60
Sam Stevens	0.92%	109	67		5
Scottie Scheffler	15.37%	6.5	4
Seonghyeon Kim	0.45%	222	151		129
Shane Lowry	2.04%	49	41		28
Stephan Jaeger	1.06%	94	71		28
Steven Fisk	0.37%	270	176		48
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.49%	204	91		6
Sungjae Im	0.86%	116	67		60
Takumi Kanaya	0.45%	222	351	0.20%	60	-0.2	Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Pendrith	1.26%	79	56		130
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.88%	114	91		14
Tom Hoge	0.24%	417	351		71
Tom Kim	0.68%	147	101		56
Tony Finau	0.84%	119	61		39
Trey Mullinax	0.09%	1111	501		116
Vince Whaley	0.43%	233	201		28
Will Zalatoris	0.52%	192	71		76
William Mouw	0.62%	161	111		44
Wyndham Clark	1.10%	91	56		104
Zach Bauchou	0.31%	323	251		112
Zecheng Dou	0.29%	345	226		21

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.54%	185	126		124
Aaron Rai	0.98%	102	101
Aaron Wise	0.15%	667	251		31
Adam Schenk	0.31%	323	251		31
Adam Scott	1.51%	66	56		11
Adam Svensson	0.40%	250	201		93
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.69%	145	101		11
Adrien Saddier	0.52%	192	151		31
Aldrich Potgieter	0.43%	233	91		59
Alejandro Tosti	0.30%	333	111		105
Alex Smalley	0.93%	108	71		11
Andrew Putnam	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	76	-0.1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.58%	172	126		11
Beau Hossler	0.55%	182	141		31
Ben Griffin	1.51%	66	51		76
Billy Horschel	0.65%	154	111		76
Brian Campbell	0.35%	286	251		59
Brice Garnett	0.36%	278	251		59
Bronson Burgoon	0.41%	244	181		31
Brooks Koepka	1.28%	78	41		124
Casey Russell	0.03%	3333	401		93
Chad Ramey	0.77%	130	111		11
Chandler Blanchet	0.70%	143	101		115
Chandler Phillips	0.53%	189	176		115
Charley Hoffman	0.15%	667	301		93
Chris Gotterup	1.52%	66	31		31
Chris Kirk	0.93%	108	111		59
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	59	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.25%	400	151		124
Cole Hammer	0.24%	417	201		11
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.70%	143	111		59
Danny Walker	0.44%	227	201		31
Danny Willett	0.26%	385	251		31
David Ford	0.57%	175	101		115
David Lipsky	0.62%	161	111		134
Davis Chatfield	0.46%	217	201		76
Davis Riley	0.30%	333	201		105
Davis Thompson	1.07%	93	81		105
Denny McCarthy	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	31	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	0.75%	133	101		105
Dylan Wu	0.65%	154	151		76
Emiliano Grillo	0.74%	135	126		76
Eric Cole	0.84%	119	101		31
Erik Van Rooyen	0.34%	294	201		76
Garrick Higgo	0.59%	169	126		93
Gary Woodland	0.86%	116	71		2
Gordon Sargent	0.30%	333	151		124
Hank Lebioda	0.47%	213	161		93
Haotong Li	0.66%	152	91		76
Harris English	1.50%	67	67		93
Harry Hall	1.29%	78	56		59
Isaiah Salinda	0.50%	200	126		105
J.T. Poston	0.91%	110	101		93
Jackson Suber	0.44%	227	201		11
Jake Knapp	1.69%	59	36		59
Jason Day	1.33%	75	67		31
Jeffrey Kang	0.19%	526	301		59
Jesper Svensson	0.77%	130	101		11
Jhonattan Vegas	0.45%	222	141		11
Jimmy Stanger	0.51%	196	151		31
Joe Highsmith	0.29%	345	201		93
John Parry	0.78%	128	126		76
John VanDerLaan	0.50%	200	151		131
Johnny Keefer	0.70%	143	126		11
Jordan Smith	1.31%	76	71		59
Karl Vilips	0.36%	278	201		31
Keith Mitchell	1.20%	83	56		31
Kensei Hirata	0.34%	294	226		124
Kevin Roy	0.74%	135	126		11
Kevin Yu	0.74%	135	101		93
Kris Ventura	0.70%	143	111		131
Kristoffer Reitan	0.78%	128	81		124
Kurt Kitayama	1.50%	67	46		6
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.12%	833	251		31
Lee Hodges	0.92%	109	91		31
Lucas Glover	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	134	-0.1	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Clanton	0.44%	227	126		59
Mac Meissner	0.83%	120	101		31
Mackenzie Hughes	0.91%	110	91		93
Marcelo Rozo	0.18%	556	301
Marco Penge	0.86%	116	46		6
Mark Hubbard	0.53%	189	176		76
Mason Howell	0.04%	2500	201		115
Matt Kuchar	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	11	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace	0.81%	123	101		6
Matthieu Pavon	0.68%	147	126		31
Matti Schmid	0.78%	128	91		11
Max Greyserman	0.90%	111	71		76
Max McGreevy	0.70%	143	111		105
Michael Brennan	0.76%	132	81		3
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.15%	87	46		31
Min Woo Lee	1.70%	59	34		31
Neal Shipley	0.39%	256	201		76
Nick Dunlap	0.27%	370	201		105
Nico Echavarria	0.84%	119	71		105
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.43%	70	41		31
Patrick Fishburn	0.49%	204	151		31
Patrick Rodgers	1.09%	92	86		105
Patton Kizzire	0.36%	278	201		76
Paul Waring	0.27%	370	301		1
Peter Malnati	0.22%	455	251		120
Pierceson Coody	0.86%	116	56		76
Pontus Nyholm	0.38%	263	201		59
Rafael Campos	0.24%	417	301		120
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.17%	85	61		31
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.79%	127	101		59
Rickie Fowler	1.89%	53	46		11
Ricky Castillo	0.90%	111	81		31
Rico Hoey	0.80%	125	81		11
Ryan Fox	1.08%	93	61		105
Ryan Gerard	1.30%	77	51		120
Sahith Theegala	1.05%	95	61		11
Sam Burns	1.89%	53	41		3
Sam Ryder	0.50%	200	151		59
Sam Stevens	1.05%	95	67		11
Seamus Power	0.79%	127	126		31
Seonghyeon Kim	0.68%	147	101		115
Shane Lowry	1.52%	66	56		59
Stephan Jaeger	1.08%	93	67		6
Steven Fisk	0.63%	159	141		31
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.73%	137	81		59
Sungjae Im	0.86%	116	71		11
Takumi Kanaya	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	93	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Pendrith	1.12%	89	67		124
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.97%	103	101		31
Tom Hoge	0.57%	175	141		3
Tom Kim	0.89%	112	91		76
Tony Finau	0.89%	112	67		11
Trey Mullinax	0.35%	286	201		93
Vince Whaley	0.68%	147	126		31
Will Zalatoris	0.74%	135	81		76
William Mouw	0.86%	116	91		59
Wyndham Clark	1.15%	87	51		120
Zach Bauchou	0.57%	175	141		76
Zecheng Dou	0.58%	172	141		6

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.19%	84	111	0.30%	51	-2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Andrew Putnam	0.68%	147	251	0.30%	44	-2	BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Denny McCarthy	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	12	-2	William Hill: 125/1, 6pl, 1/4
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	59	-1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Denny McCarthy	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	31	-1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Andrew Putnam	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	76	-1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Takumi Kanaya	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	93	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Lucas Glover	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	134	-1	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matt Kuchar	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	11	-1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.