Simulation Results: The Heritage

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 1.58% 63 41 38
Adam Hadwin 0.21% 476 401 61
Adam Scott 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akshay Bhatia 1.07% 93 67 42
Andrew Novak 0.52% 192 126 2
Austin Eckroat 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 32 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Horschel 0.72% 139 111 27
Brian Campbell 0.30% 333 251 32
Brian Harman 1.26% 79 71 3
Bud Cauley 0.80% 125 81 32
Byeong Hun An 0.95% 105 101 38
Cam Davis 0.20% 500 251 13
Cameron Young 0.39% 256 201 54
Chris Kirk 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 42 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Collin Morikawa 5.52% 18 12 54
Corey Conners 3.70% 27 23 49
Daniel Berger 1.11% 90 41 3
Davis Thompson 0.93% 108 71 27
Denny McCarthy 1.58% 63 56 49
Eric Cole 0.54% 185 176 18
Gary Woodland 0.48% 208 176 61
Harris English 0.99% 101 81 66
J.J. Spaun 0.94% 106 67 42
J.T. Poston 1.07% 93 67 11
Jacob Bridgeman 0.47% 213 126 61
Jason Day 1.53% 65 41 49
Joe Highsmith 0.47% 213 151 72
Jordan Spieth 1.54% 65 41 18
Justin Rose 1.12% 89 67 42
Justin Thomas 2.80% 36 21 1
Karl Vilips 0.09% 1111 401 54
Keegan Bradley 1.39% 72 71 18
Lucas Glover 0.80% 125 91 61
Ludvig Aberg 2.72% 37 15 54
Mackenzie Hughes 0.53% 189 151 3
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.77% 130 86 38
Matt Kuchar 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 32 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon 0.16% 625 751 42
Maverick McNealy 0.96% 104 67 3
Max Greyserman 0.80% 125 176 0.20% 27 -0.2 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Max Homa 0.47% 213 131 70
Michael Kim 0.99% 101 91 54
Min Woo Lee 1.25% 80 67 61
Nick Dunlap 0.06% 1667 501 71
Nick Taylor 0.47% 213 126 49
Patrick Cantlay 3.74% 27 19 13
Patrick Rodgers 0.66% 152 151 42
Rickie Fowler 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 68 -0.1 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert MacIntyre 1.24% 81 51 66
Russell Henley 3.17% 32 26 8
Ryan Gerard 0.58% 172 151 27
Ryo Hisatsune 0.49% 204 176 18
Sahith Theegala 0.86% 116 76 69
Sam Burns 1.31% 76 126 0.50% 13 -0.5 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens 0.47% 213 201 54
Sami Valimaki 0.29% 345 301 18
Scottie Scheffler 15.89% 6.3 5 8
Sepp Straka 1.62% 62 41 13
Shane Lowry 2.12% 47 29 18
Si Woo Kim 0.95% 105 81 8
Stephan Jaeger 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 32 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sungjae Im 2.60% 38 41 0.20% 11 -0.2 Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Pendrith 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 42 -0.1 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Detry 0.51% 196 151 32
Tom Hoge 0.86% 116 91 18
Tommy Fleetwood 3.04% 33 31 7
Tony Finau 1.35% 74 91 0.30% 38 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Viktor Hovland 1.74% 57 34 13
Will Zalatoris 0.65% 154 81 54
Wyndham Clark 1.41% 71 67 27
Xander Schauffele 4.73% 21 15 18

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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