Simulation Results: The Heritage

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Schenk	0.05%	2000	2501		33
Akshay Bhatia	1.06%	94	61		16
Aldrich Potgieter	0.07%	1429	601		25
Alex Noren	1.25%	80	71		65
Andrew Novak	0.37%	270	151		16
Andrew Putnam	0.58%	172	151		42
Austin Smotherman	0.36%	278	201		74
Ben Griffin	1.23%	81	61		33
Billy Horschel	0.23%	435	276		80
Brian Campbell	0.11%	909	551		77
Brian Harman	0.75%	133	71		25
Bud Cauley	0.29%	345	176		7
Cameron Young	3.94%	25	17		25
Chandler Blanchet	0.15%	667	351		33
Chris Gotterup	1.43%	70	51		25
Collin Morikawa	3.43%	29	26		4
Corey Conners	1.08%	93	86		55
Daniel Berger	0.60%	167	81		42
David Lipsky	0.11%	909	501		71
Denny McCarthy	0.58%	172	226	0.10%	65	-0.1	Betfred: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Garrick Higgo	0.10%	1000	601		52
Gary Woodland	0.69%	145	126		8
Harris English	1.32%	76	61		4
Harry Hall	0.78%	128	111		65
J.J. Spaun	0.99%	101	61		25
J.T. Poston	0.68%	147	71		60
Jacob Bridgeman	1.10%	91	51		33
Jake Knapp	2.15%	47	41		74
Jason Day	1.59%	63	56		42
Jhonattan Vegas	0.12%	833	601		74
Joe Highsmith	0.04%	2500	2001		33
Johnny Keefer	0.25%	400	301		69
Jordan Smith	0.48%	208	176		16
Jordan Spieth	2.04%	49	31		33
Justin Thomas	1.29%	78	46		77
Karl Vilips	0.11%	909	501		33
Keegan Bradley	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	12	-0.3	PaddyPower: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Kurt Kitayama	0.80%	125	86		8
Lucas Glover	0.12%	833	601		42
Ludvig Aberg	3.15%	32	26		4
Marco Penge	0.45%	222	126		77
Matt Fitzpatrick	3.80%	26	17		1
Matt McCarty	0.46%	217	151		12
Matt Wallace	0.56%	179	126		55
Maverick McNealy	1.87%	53	36		16
Max Homa	0.61%	164	101		69
Michael Brennan	0.37%	270	201		42
Michael Kim	0.42%	238	201		25
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.61%	164	91		33
Min Woo Lee	1.26%	79	61		60
Nick Taylor	0.74%	135	111		60
Nico Echavarria	0.22%	455	201		81
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.05%	95	81		55
Patrick Cantlay	3.07%	33	21		8
Patrick Rodgers	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	16	-0.1	Betfred: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierceson Coody	0.26%	385	226		16
Rickie Fowler	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	8	-0.1	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricky Castillo	0.40%	250	276		60
Robert MacIntyre	1.70%	59	41		42
Russell Henley	4.96%	20	19		25
Ryan Fox	0.41%	244	276		16
Ryan Gerard	0.75%	133	81		33
Ryo Hisatsune	0.63%	159	61		60
Sahith Theegala	0.76%	132	61		25
Sam Burns	3.12%	32	36	0.40%	16	-0.4	Skybet: 30/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	0.75%	133	91		65
Sami Valimaki	0.36%	278	301		55
Scottie Scheffler	11.80%	8.5	5		2
Sepp Straka	1.21%	83	41		42
Shane Lowry	1.56%	64	51		42
Si Woo Kim	1.84%	54	31		3
Steven Fisk	0.20%	500	501		12
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.61%	164	91		52
Sungjae Im	0.55%	182	111		42
Taylor Pendrith	0.32%	313	226		71
Tom Hoge	0.13%	769	601		71
Tommy Fleetwood	4.41%	23	21		52
Tony Finau	0.41%	244	176		82
Viktor Hovland	2.35%	43	36		42
William Mouw	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	55	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wyndham Clark	0.66%	152	91		16
Xander Schauffele	5.60%	18	14		12

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Schenk	0.22%	455	201		70
Akshay Bhatia	1.12%	89	51		65
Aldrich Potgieter	0.22%	455	151		15
Alex Noren	1.39%	72	67		65
Andrew Novak	0.60%	167	91		4
Andrew Putnam	0.74%	135	101		54
Austin Smotherman	0.55%	182	101		70
Ben Griffin	1.48%	68	51		27
Billy Horschel	0.47%	213	101		54
Brian Campbell	0.30%	333	141		20
Brian Harman	1.02%	98	56		54
Bud Cauley	0.51%	196	91		20
Cameron Young	3.36%	30	26		54
Chandler Blanchet	0.38%	263	126		54
Chris Gotterup	1.52%	66	46		44
Collin Morikawa	2.83%	35	36	0.10%	15	-0.1	William Hill: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Conners	1.18%	85	67		15
Daniel Berger	0.83%	120	67		10
David Lipsky	0.33%	303	151		62
Denny McCarthy	0.92%	109	91		70
Garrick Higgo	0.27%	370	151		62
Gary Woodland	0.93%	108	71		4
Harris English	1.53%	65	51		2
Harry Hall	1.00%	100	67		44
J.J. Spaun	1.26%	79	51		27
J.T. Poston	0.97%	103	61		54
Jacob Bridgeman	1.32%	76	46		76
Jake Knapp	1.91%	52	41		54
Jason Day	1.48%	68	51		44
Jhonattan Vegas	0.32%	313	151		82
Joe Highsmith	0.18%	556	251		15
Johnny Keefer	0.46%	217	111		27
Jordan Smith	0.77%	130	91		27
Jordan Spieth	2.00%	50	41		27
Justin Thomas	1.47%	68	46		80
Karl Vilips	0.27%	370	151		44
Keegan Bradley	1.32%	76	67		15
Kurt Kitayama	0.98%	102	67		27
Lucas Glover	0.32%	313	151		27
Ludvig Aberg	2.66%	38	34		1
Marco Penge	0.74%	135	81		65
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.95%	34	26		4
Matt McCarty	0.77%	130	91		27
Matt Wallace	0.85%	118	81		27
Maverick McNealy	1.75%	57	41		70
Max Homa	0.78%	128	71		44
Michael Brennan	0.66%	152	101		4
Michael Kim	0.56%	179	101		27
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.94%	106	67		44
Min Woo Lee	1.49%	67	51		44
Nick Taylor	0.95%	105	71		27
Nico Echavarria	0.38%	263	101		76
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.22%	82	67		65
Patrick Cantlay	2.55%	39	34		27
Patrick Rodgers	0.77%	130	111		27
Pierceson Coody	0.48%	208	91		27
Rickie Fowler	1.43%	70	56		4
Ricky Castillo	0.58%	172	91		62
Robert MacIntyre	1.91%	52	41		10
Russell Henley	3.61%	28	29	0.20%	20	-0.2	Betfred: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.63%	159	111		4
Ryan Gerard	0.98%	102	67		65
Ryo Hisatsune	0.85%	118	51		76
Sahith Theegala	1.02%	98	56		27
Sam Burns	2.44%	41	41		44
Sam Stevens	0.91%	110	67		44
Sami Valimaki	0.64%	156	111		20
Scottie Scheffler	7.02%	14	15	0.40%	20	-0.4	Skybet: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	1.49%	67	41		10
Shane Lowry	1.43%	70	51		44
Si Woo Kim	1.74%	57	41		10
Steven Fisk	0.48%	208	141		27
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.77%	130	67		70
Sungjae Im	0.82%	122	81		10
Taylor Pendrith	0.56%	179	91		70
Tom Hoge	0.32%	313	151		54
Tommy Fleetwood	3.15%	32	29		80
Tony Finau	0.67%	149	91		76
Viktor Hovland	2.13%	47	41		2
William Mouw	0.53%	189	141		20
Wyndham Clark	0.84%	119	67		20
Xander Schauffele	3.87%	26	26		27

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Sam Burns	3.12%	32	36	0.40%	16	-2	Skybet: 30/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Keegan Bradley	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	12	-2	PaddyPower: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
WIN: Rickie Fowler	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	8	-2	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	7.02%	14	15	0.40%	20	-1	Skybet: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Russell Henley	3.61%	28	29	0.20%	20	-1	Betfred: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Collin Morikawa	2.83%	35	36	0.10%	15	-1	William Hill: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.