18-Hole Simulation Results: The Heritage

Round Time Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Score P/L
1 13:00 Bud Cauley 46.01% 2.2 1.95 69
1 13:00 Nick Taylor 44.56% 2.2 2.25 0.10% 70 -0.1
1 13:00 Tie 9.42% 11 9 -
1 13:10 Brian Campbell 45.46% 2.2 2.1 66
1 13:10 Sami Valimaki 45.40% 2.2 2.1 67
1 13:10 Tie 9.13% 11 9 -
1 13:20 Matt Kuchar 46.79% 2.1 2.1 67
1 13:20 Sam Stevens 43.58% 2.3 2.1 70
1 13:20 Tie 9.62% 10 9 -
1 13:30 Denny McCarthy 53.11% 1.88 1.91 0.80% 68 0.73
1 13:30 Max Homa 37.29% 2.7 2.5 70
1 13:30 Tie 9.60% 10 9 -
1 13:40 Sam Burns 47.80% 2.1 1.91 69
1 13:40 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 42.73% 2.3 2.3 70
1 13:40 Tie 9.46% 11 9 -
1 13:50 Taylor Pendrith 52.89% 1.89 1.8 73
1 13:50 Adam Hadwin 37.31% 2.7 2.5 72
1 13:50 Tie 9.80% 10 9 -
1 14:00 Sepp Straka 49.21% 2 1.95 70
1 14:00 Davis Thompson 41.49% 2.4 2.3 71
1 14:00 Tie 9.29% 11 9 -
1 14:10 Akshay Bhatia 44.19% 2.3 2.1 68
1 14:10 Keegan Bradley 46.74% 2.1 2.1 67
1 14:10 Tie 9.06% 11 9 -
1 14:35 Matt Fitzpatrick 47.37% 2.1 2.05 66
1 14:35 Eric Cole 43.38% 2.3 2.38 1.20% 67 -1.2
1 14:35 Tie 9.24% 11 9 -
1 14:45 Patrick Cantlay 53.48% 1.87 1.75 67
1 14:45 Si Woo Kim 37.48% 2.7 2.63 68
1 14:45 Tie 9.04% 11 9 -
1 14:55 Russell Henley 54.06% 1.85 1.75 64
1 14:55 Tom Hoge 36.85% 2.7 2.6 70
1 14:55 Tie 9.09% 11 9 -
1 15:05 Tommy Fleetwood 45.39% 2.2 2.1 67
1 15:05 Sungjae Im 45.16% 2.2 2.2 69
1 15:05 Tie 9.44% 11 9 -
1 15:15 Scottie Scheffler 61.80% 1.62 1.59 64
1 15:15 Viktor Hovland 29.54% 3.4 3.2 69
1 15:15 Tie 8.66% 12 9 -
1 15:25 Justin Thomas 42.93% 2.3 2.05 61
1 15:25 Corey Conners 47.97% 2.1 2.15 1.40% 70 -1.4
1 15:25 Tie 9.09% 11 9 -
1 15:40 Shane Lowry 48.17% 2.1 2 68
1 15:40 Jordan Spieth 42.50% 2.4 2.25 67
1 15:40 Tie 9.32% 11 9 -
1 15:50 J.J. Spaun 46.80% 2.1 2 66
1 15:50 Lucas Glover 43.60% 2.3 2.15 68
1 15:50 Tie 9.59% 10 9 -
1 16:00 Daniel Berger 49.09% 2 1.83 70
1 16:00 Gary Woodland 41.09% 2.4 2.5 0.90% 66 1.35
1 16:00 Tie 9.81% 10 9 -
1 16:10 Rickie Fowler 57.23% 1.75 1.8 1.90% 72 -1.9
1 16:10 Karl Vilips 33.31% 3 2.5 71
1 16:10 Tie 9.46% 11 9 -
1 16:20 Harris English 51.27% 1.95 2 1.30% 70 1.3
1 16:20 Jacob Bridgeman 39.47% 2.5 2.2 71
1 16:20 Tie 9.26% 11 9 -
1 16:30 Patrick Rodgers 46.39% 2.2 2.1 75
1 16:30 Ryo Hisatsune 43.89% 2.3 2.15 71
1 16:30 Tie 9.71% 10 9 -
1 16:40 Ryan Gerard 46.76% 2.1 2.05 67
1 16:40 Mackenzie Hughes 43.59% 2.3 2.2 68
1 16:40 Tie 9.64% 10 9 -
1 16:55 Thomas Detry 57.68% 1.73 1.83 3.30% 73 2.74
1 16:55 Nick Dunlap 33.51% 3 2.75 78
1 16:55 Tie 8.81% 11 9 -
1 17:05 Wyndham Clark 48.83% 2 2 65
1 17:05 Will Zalatoris 41.93% 2.4 2.2 72
1 17:05 Tie 9.23% 11 9 -
1 17:15 Robert MacIntyre 45.43% 2.2 2.05 71
1 17:15 J.T. Poston 45.20% 2.2 2.2 68
1 17:15 Tie 9.36% 11 9 -
1 17:25 Jason Day 45.68% 2.2 1.91 68
1 17:25 Tony Finau 44.57% 2.2 2.4 2.50% 72 -2.5
1 17:25 Tie 9.74% 10 9 -
1 17:35 Cameron Young 42.97% 2.3 2.1 70
1 17:35 Chris Kirk 47.70% 2.1 2.1 0.10% 71 -0.1
1 17:35 Tie 9.32% 11 9 -
1 17:45 Aaron Rai 48.66% 2.1 1.83 70
1 17:45 Stephan Jaeger 41.89% 2.4 2.5 1.60% 67 2.4
1 17:45 Tie 9.44% 11 9 -
1 17:55 Max Greyserman 53.56% 1.87 1.95 2.30% 67 2.19
1 17:55 Cam Davis 37.36% 2.7 2.5 70
1 17:55 Tie 9.08% 11 9 -
1 18:10 Brian Harman 47.78% 2.1 2.05 66
1 18:10 Byeong Hun An 43.10% 2.3 2.1 74
1 18:10 Tie 9.11% 11 9 -
1 18:20 Billy Horschel 46.40% 2.2 2 71
1 18:20 Austin Eckroat 44.03% 2.3 2.3 0.50% 71 -0.5
1 18:20 Tie 9.56% 10 9 -
1 18:30 Xander Schauffele 47.60% 2.1 2.1 69
1 18:30 Ludvig Aberg 42.92% 2.3 2.2 69
1 18:30 Tie 9.47% 11 9 -
1 18:40 Collin Morikawa 57.91% 1.73 1.62 69
1 18:40 Sahith Theegala 32.78% 3.1 3 75
1 18:40 Tie 9.31% 11 9 -
1 18:50 Min Woo Lee 45.88% 2.2 2 72
1 18:50 Justin Rose 44.85% 2.2 2.2 67
1 18:50 Tie 9.26% 11 8.5 -
1 19:00 Michael Kim 48.46% 2.1 1.95 71
1 19:00 Andrew Novak 42.26% 2.4 2.3 68
1 19:00 Tie 9.27% 11 9 -
1 19:10 Maverick McNealy 49.49% 2 1.85 70
1 19:10 Joe Highsmith 41.36% 2.4 2.38 77
1 19:10 Tie 9.14% 11 9 -

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised plays for each round.

Unlike the TT Win Probabilities where the advised plays are at stakes based on the Kelly criterion, advised stakes for 18-hole plays are Half Kelly stakes. As only one player can win a tournament, bets on differnt players in an outright market are not independent of each other. However, bets on different players to win different 18-hole matches are independent of each other and so are more volatile as a whole. As a result, Half Kelly stakes are provided in the table above, whereas (Full) Kelly stakes are provided in the table for outright markets. The TT 18-Hole Match Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

This table will be populated in the morning before the start of each round.

TT 18-Match Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

K = (b * p) - q b
Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

The Half Kelly stake is simply half the values of the above equation. Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Half Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Auto-populated when player is selected
Kelly Stake: 0.00% of bankroll

The Kelly criterion determines the optimal stake size to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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