Simulation Results: Genesis Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.37%	270	181		28
Adam Scott	0.81%	123	56		4
Akshay Bhatia	0.77%	130	61		16
Aldrich Potgieter	0.05%	2000	401		5
Alex Noren	0.70%	143	91		12
Andrew Novak	0.15%	667	201		47
Ben Griffin	1.96%	51	46		41
Brian Campbell	0.02%	5000	1251		56
Brian Harman	0.42%	238	161		50
Bud Cauley	0.18%	556	226		68
Cameron Young	1.51%	66	34		7
Chris Gotterup	1.24%	81	34		63
Collin Morikawa	2.30%	43	29		7
Corey Conners	0.68%	147	126		37
Daniel Berger	0.33%	303	151		56
Denny McCarthy	0.58%	172	131		47
Garrick Higgo	0.24%	417	176		72
Harris English	2.03%	49	41		22
Harry Hall	0.77%	130	86		56
Hideki Matsuyama	2.70%	37	23		28
J.J. Spaun	0.83%	120	67		68
J.T. Poston	0.84%	119	81		56
Jacob Bridgeman	0.78%	128	91		1
Jake Knapp	1.86%	54	36		6
Jason Day	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	71	-0.3	Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.01%	10000	1001		44
Jordan Spieth	1.01%	99	67		12
Justin Rose	1.08%	93	46		63
Keegan Bradley	1.44%	69	61		63
Kevin Yu	0.16%	625	201		56
Kurt Kitayama	0.55%	182	81		2
Lucas Glover	0.14%	714	326		63
Ludvig Aberg	0.95%	105	41		20
Marco Penge	0.12%	833	201		16
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.00%	50	36		24
Matt McCarty	0.58%	172	151		24
Matti Schmid	0.06%	1667	451		49
Maverick McNealy	1.67%	60	41		52
Max Greyserman	0.29%	345	151		24
Max Homa	0.38%	263	76		37
Max McGreevy	0.29%	345	151		52
Michael Kim	0.23%	435	176		68
Min Woo Lee	1.07%	93	41		12
Nick Taylor	0.83%	120	71		28
Nico Echavarria	0.15%	667	251		52
Patrick Cantlay	3.50%	29	26		37
Patrick Rodgers	0.39%	256	126		34
Pierceson Coody	0.46%	217	71		16
Rickie Fowler	2.11%	47	46		28
Rico Hoey	0.21%	476	131		56
Robert MacIntyre	1.55%	65	46		20
Rory McIlroy	4.91%	20	13		2
Russell Henley	3.66%	27	31	0.40%	56	-0.4	Betfred: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.35%	286	176		7
Ryan Gerard	0.71%	141	67		28
Ryo Hisatsune	0.42%	238	126		45
Sahith Theegala	0.40%	250	101		22
Sam Burns	2.52%	40	36		52
Sam Stevens	0.32%	313	126		16
Sami Valimaki	0.32%	313	226		37
Scottie Scheffler	23.39%	4.3	4.33	0.40%	12	-0.4	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	1.03%	97	51		50
Shane Lowry	1.64%	61	67	0.10%	24	-0.1	Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Si Woo Kim	2.52%	40	31		34
Taylor Pendrith	0.53%	189	81		45
Tom Hoge	0.21%	476	176		63
Tom Kim	0.19%	526	276		34
Tommy Fleetwood	5.13%	19	19		7
Tony Finau	0.38%	263	111		28
Viktor Hovland	2.62%	38	41	0.20%	41	-0.2	Star Sports: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wyndham Clark	0.42%	238	96		41
Xander Schauffele	2.96%	34	21		7

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	0.84%	119	116		1
Adam Scott	1.30%	77	51		22
Akshay Bhatia	1.18%	85	51		7
Aldrich Potgieter	0.26%	385	126		7
Alex Noren	1.16%	86	76		63
Andrew Novak	0.55%	182	101		22
Ben Griffin	2.01%	50	46		54
Brian Campbell	0.17%	588	251		22
Brian Harman	0.82%	122	91		41
Bud Cauley	0.56%	179	111		41
Cameron Young	1.78%	56	41		41
Chris Gotterup	1.51%	66	41		33
Collin Morikawa	2.06%	49	36		7
Corey Conners	1.11%	90	91		33
Daniel Berger	0.75%	133	91		41
Denny McCarthy	1.05%	95	91		41
Garrick Higgo	0.60%	167	101		70
Harris English	1.97%	51	46		54
Harry Hall	1.19%	84	67		22
Hideki Matsuyama	2.31%	43	34		14
J.J. Spaun	1.20%	83	67		63
J.T. Poston	1.17%	85	67		69
Jacob Bridgeman	1.18%	85	71		1
Jake Knapp	1.90%	53	41		54
Jason Day	2.07%	48	56	0.30%	54	-0.3	Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.13%	769	226		14
Jordan Spieth	1.40%	71	61		22
Justin Rose	1.47%	68	51		63
Keegan Bradley	1.68%	60	56		70
Kevin Yu	0.47%	213	111		54
Kurt Kitayama	0.98%	102	67		33
Lucas Glover	0.48%	208	136		41
Ludvig Aberg	1.31%	76	46		41
Marco Penge	0.44%	227	111		1
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.04%	49	41		14
Matt McCarty	0.95%	105	101		22
Matti Schmid	0.36%	278	126		33
Maverick McNealy	1.84%	54	41		14
Max Greyserman	0.77%	130	91		7
Max Homa	0.80%	125	71		22
Max McGreevy	0.66%	152	101		22
Michael Kim	0.62%	161	101		41
Min Woo Lee	1.45%	69	46		14
Nick Taylor	1.17%	85	67		41
Nico Echavarria	0.53%	189	91		63
Patrick Cantlay	2.71%	37	36		41
Patrick Rodgers	0.79%	127	91		33
Pierceson Coody	0.85%	118	51		7
Rickie Fowler	2.09%	48	56	0.30%	41	-0.3	Betfred: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rico Hoey	0.60%	167	91		54
Robert MacIntyre	1.73%	58	46		54
Rory McIlroy	3.43%	29	26		1
Russell Henley	2.92%	34	41	0.50%	70	-0.5	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.79%	127	91		5
Ryan Gerard	1.13%	88	67		41
Ryo Hisatsune	0.88%	114	71		22
Sahith Theegala	0.85%	118	67		33
Sam Burns	2.42%	41	41		22
Sam Stevens	0.81%	123	91		63
Sami Valimaki	0.78%	128	101		33
Scottie Scheffler	9.37%	11	15	2.90%	63	-2.9	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	1.30%	77	56		22
Shane Lowry	1.74%	57	56		54
Si Woo Kim	2.31%	43	41		7
Taylor Pendrith	0.97%	103	67		14
Tom Hoge	0.65%	154	91		54
Tom Kim	0.58%	172			33
Tommy Fleetwood	3.48%	29	31	0.30%	14	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tony Finau	0.78%	128	71		41
Viktor Hovland	2.38%	42	41		14
Wyndham Clark	0.91%	110	76		5
Xander Schauffele	2.51%	40	31		7

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	23.39%	4.3	4.33	0.40%	12	-2	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Russell Henley	3.66%	27	31	0.40%	56	-2	Betfred: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jason Day	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	71	-2	Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	9.37%	11	15	2.90%	63	-1	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Russell Henley	2.92%	34	41	0.50%	70	-1	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	3.48%	29	31	0.30%	14	-1	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Day	2.07%	48	56	0.30%	14	-1	Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Rickie Fowler	2.09%	48	56	0.30%	54	-1	Betfred: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.