Simulation Results: Farmers Insurance Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.06%	1667	1501		49
Aaron Rai	1.61%	62	76	0.30%			Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	1251		105
Adam Schenk	0.08%	1250	751		11
Adam Scott	1.98%	51	51		30
Adam Svensson	0.23%	435	501		115
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.41%	244	151		122
Adrien Saddier	0.30%	333	251		96
Akshay Bhatia	0.80%	125	91		105
Aldrich Potgieter	0.23%	435	151		115
Alejandro Tosti	0.04%	2500	601		122
Alex Noren	1.19%	84	56		96
Alex Smalley	0.68%	147	101		115
Andrew Novak	0.69%	145	101		7
Andrew Putnam	1.08%	93	226	0.60%	122	-0.6	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	49	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Smotherman	0.31%	323	201		87
Beau Hossler	0.36%	278	201		87
Billy Horschel	0.85%	118	141	0.10%	138	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandt Snedeker	0.26%	385	351		105
Brice Garnett	0.28%	357	601	0.10%	138	-0.1	Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brooks Koepka	0.31%	323	67		56
Cam Davis	0.08%	1250	601		70
Cameron Young	1.64%	61	26		22
Camilo Villegas	0.05%	2000	1001		141
Chad Ramey	0.24%	417	276		22
Chandler Blanchet	0.15%	667	401		75
Chandler Phillips	0.38%	263	251		87
Charley Hoffman	0.02%	5000	651		115
Chris Gotterup	1.69%	59	31		18
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.58%	63	91	0.50%	27	-0.5	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.05%	2000	501		75
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.61%	164	181	0.10%	30	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Walker	0.10%	1000	1001		38
David Ford	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	105	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Lipsky	0.23%	435	501		18
Davis Chatfield	0.17%	588	601		133
Davis Riley	0.28%	357	276		96
Davis Thompson	0.93%	108	71		43
Denny McCarthy	1.64%	61	91	0.50%	49	-0.5	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	0.52%	192	151		59
Dylan Wu	0.37%	270	301		75
Emiliano Grillo	0.53%	189	251	0.10%	38	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez	0.22%	455	601	0.10%	65	-0.1	Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eric Cole	0.69%	145	121		27
Erik Van Rooyen	0.21%	476	301		122
Garrick Higgo	1.14%	88	61		122
Gary Woodland	0.48%	208	226		87
Gordon Sargent	0.05%	2000	1251		87
Hank Lebioda	0.13%	769	601		133
Haotong Li	0.74%	135	81		11
Harris English	2.14%	47	41		22
Henrik Norlander	0.09%	1111	501		105
Hideki Matsuyama	2.25%	44	29		11
Hunter Logan	0.00%	10000	2501		96
Isaiah Salinda	0.19%	526	401		30
J.J. Spaun	1.77%	56	31		96
Jackson Suber	0.13%	769	351		70
Jake Knapp	1.39%	72	46		5
Jason Day	2.90%	34	31		38
Jeffrey Kang	0.07%	1429	1001		122
Jeremy Paul	0.14%	714	551		96
Jesper Svensson	0.34%	294	151		75
Jhonattan Vegas	0.38%	263	251		145
Joe Highsmith	0.10%	1000	601		133
Joel Dahmen	0.49%	204	226		7
John Parry	0.60%	167	176		43
John VanDerLaan	0.12%	833	601		43
Johnny Keefer	0.92%	109	111		43
Jordan Smith	1.12%	89	126	0.30%	105	-0.3	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Hastings	0.09%	1111	601		87
Justin Lower	0.07%	1429	551		30
Justin Rose	1.22%	82	61		1
Karl Vilips	0.36%	278	201		38
Keegan Bradley	1.58%	63	51		43
Keita Nakajima	0.35%	286	251		64
Keith Mitchell	0.89%	112	91		11
Kensei Hirata	0.16%	625	751		74
Kevin Roy	0.42%	238	251		105
Kevin Streelman	0.10%	1000	1001		138
Kevin Yu	0.73%	137	101		75
Kris Ventura	0.54%	185	176		22
Kristoffer Reitan	0.16%	625	126		30
Lanto Griffin	0.22%	455	451		96
Lee Hodges	0.60%	167	151		122
Ludvig Aberg	2.00%	50	21		141
Luke Clanton	0.26%	385	251		115
Luke List	0.07%	1429	401		115
Mac Meissner	0.75%	133	111		49
Mackenzie Hughes	0.44%	227	226		59
Marcelo Rozo	0.04%	2500	3001		65
Marco Penge	0.42%	238	61		133
Marcus Byrd	0.01%	10000	3001		87
Mark Geddes	0.00%	10000	5001		141
Mark Hubbard	0.27%	370	301		69
Matt Kuchar	0.99%	101	226	0.50%	96	-0.5	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty	1.57%	64	61		18
Matt Wallace	0.80%	125	121		133
Matthieu Pavon	0.37%	270	401	0.10%	38	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	0.32%	313	176		56
Maverick McNealy	1.65%	61	34		10
Max Greyserman	0.82%	122	67		75
Max Homa	1.47%	68	67		105
Max McGreevy	0.63%	159	111		30
Michael Brennan	0.37%	270	101		147
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.66%	152	51		18
Neal Shipley	0.22%	455	301		122
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.76%	132	56		22
Patrick Cantlay	4.24%	24	26	0.40%	75	-0.4	QuinnBet: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	122	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers	1.25%	80	61		27
Peter Malnati	0.07%	1429	1501		96
Pierceson Coody	0.70%	143	67		2
Pontus Nyholm	0.05%	2000	751		105
Rafael Campos	0.09%	1111	2001		122
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.42%	70	51		30
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.06%	94	91		49
Ricky Castillo	0.76%	132	126		43
Rico Hoey	0.54%	185	101		70
Ryan Gerard	1.58%	63	36		11
Ryo Hisatsune	0.34%	294	301		2
Sahith Theegala	1.02%	98	71		7
Sam Ryder	0.61%	164	251	0.20%	59	-0.2	BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Stevens	1.20%	83	46		30
Sami Valimaki	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	75	-0.1	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seamus Power	0.72%	139	176	0.20%	11	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seonghyeon Kim	0.42%	238	151		63
Seungtaek Lee	0.10%	1000	601		146
Si Woo Kim	3.21%	31	29		2
Stephan Jaeger	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	5	4.4	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steven Fisk	0.37%	270	301		75
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.18%	556	351		56
Takumi Kanaya	0.66%	152	251	0.30%	115	-0.3	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore	0.53%	189	181		49
Taylor Pendrith	1.64%	61	41		75
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.16%	625	401		122
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.32%	76	91	0.20%	87	-0.2	Skybet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom Hoge	0.49%	204	161		70
Tom Kim	0.67%	149	181	0.10%	65	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tony Finau	0.35%	286	126		11
Vince Whaley	0.58%	172	126		105
Will Zalatoris	2.02%	50	41		87
William Mouw	0.34%	294	201		75
Wyndham Clark	1.50%	67	51		65
Xander Schauffele	2.62%	38	16		75
Zach Bauchou	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	59	-0.1	10Bet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zecheng Dou	0.18%	556	301		49

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Andrew Putnam	1.08%	93	226	0.60%	122	-2	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.58%	63	91	0.50%	27	-2	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Denny McCarthy	1.64%	61	91	0.50%	49	-2	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.