Simulation Results: Farmers Insurance Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.05% 2000 2001 32
Aaron Rai 1.57% 64 61 80
Adam Schenk 0.32% 313 226 25
Adam Svensson 0.44% 227 176 71
Aldrich Potgieter 0.04% 2500 451 15
Alejandro Tosti 0.10% 1000 351 80
Alex Smalley 0.84% 119 91 102
Anders Albertson 0.02% 5000 2501 80
Andrew Novak 0.35% 286 176 3
Andrew Putnam 0.85% 118 226 0.40% 32 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.10% 1000 251 48
Austin Eckroat 1.09% 92 71 113
Beau Hossler 1.56% 64 51 15
Ben Griffin 1.66% 60 51 102
Ben Silverman 0.28% 357 401 71
Braden Thornberry 0.04% 2500 751
Brandt Snedeker 0.09% 1111 451 32
Brian Campbell 0.24% 417 276 102
Bronson Burgoon 0.02% 5000 1501
Camilo Villegas 0.06% 1667 1001 102
Cavin McCall 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Chad Ramey 0.29% 345 351 48
Chan Kim 0.52% 192 181 42
Chandler Phillips 0.53% 189 181 70
Charles Reiter 0.00% 10000 4001 80
Charley Hoffman 0.85% 118 111 25
Chris Gotterup 0.23% 435 301 25
Chris Korte 0.00% 10000 4001 124
Cristobal Del Solar 0.01% 10000 3001 66
Daniel Berger 1.15% 87 101 0.20% 117 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Lipsky 0.28% 357 401 138
David Skinns 0.09% 1111 1001 124
Davis Riley 0.04% 2500 1501 96
Doug Ghim 1.02% 98 101 71
Emiliano Grillo 0.44% 227 226 152
Eric Cole 0.95% 105 111 68
Erik Van Rooyen 0.49% 204 201 80
Francesco Molinari 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 113 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frankie Capan 0.46% 217 126 56
Garrick Higgo 0.13% 769 401 136
Greyson Sigg 0.30% 333 276 9
Harris English 1.17% 85 101 0.20% 1 8.4 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Harry Higgs 0.10% 1000 401 63
Hayden Buckley 0.04% 2500 751 153
Hayden Springer 0.22% 455 276 6
Henrik Norlander 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 129 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 8pl, 1/5
Hideki Matsuyama 9.46% 11 15 3.00% 32 -3 Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Isaiah Salinda 0.11% 909 601 42
J.J. Spaun 1.22% 82 67 15
Jackson Koivun 0.00% 10000 151 56
Jackson Suber 0.12% 833 251 56
Jacob Bridgeman 0.71% 141 131 80
Jake Knapp 0.15% 667 181 32
Jason Day 3.85% 26 29 0.40% 32 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 20/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jeremy Paul 0.13% 769 376 102
Jesper Svensson 0.40% 250 151 71
Jhonattan Vegas 0.79% 127 76 42
Jim Knous 0.04% 2500 4001 142
Joe Highsmith 0.52% 192 126 80
Joel Dahmen 0.16% 625 376 9
John Pak 0.03% 3333 1501 56
Joseph Bramlett 0.25% 400 226 80
Justin Lower 1.07% 93 111 0.20% 117 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Rose 0.73% 137 91 102
Kaito Onishi 0.02% 5000 2501 80
Keegan Bradley 2.96% 34 29 15
Kevin Roy 0.38% 263 161 100
Kevin Streelman 0.14% 714 501 15
Kevin Tway 0.22% 455 401 52
Kevin Velo 0.03% 3333 1501 135
Kris Ventura 0.11% 909 401 4
Kurt Kitayama 1.48% 68 41 102
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.21% 476 501 9
Lanto Griffin 0.27% 370 201 9
Lee Hodges 0.97% 103 141 0.30% 9 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ludvig Aberg 6.73% 15 10 42
Luke Clanton 2.80% 36 67 1.30% 15 -1.3 Paddy Power: 55/1, 8pl, 1/5
Luke List 0.34% 294 201 56
Mac Meissner 0.72% 139 101 52
Mark Hubbard 1.33% 75 81 0.10% 68 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mason Andersen 0.02% 5000 2001 96
Matt McCarty 0.26% 385 226 80
Matt NeSmith 0.11% 909 136
Matteo Manassero 0.38% 263 276 25
Matthew Riedel 0.09% 1111 401 129
Matthieu Pavon 0.34% 294 131 129
Matti Schmid 0.26% 385 301 25
Maverick McNealy 1.92% 52 36 52
Max Greyserman 3.92% 26 31 0.70% 48 -0.7 Skybet: 25/1, 8pl, 1/5
Max Homa 2.01% 50 34 146
Max McGreevy 0.16% 625 161 65
Michael Kim 0.69% 145 101 135
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.74% 135 91 71
Nate Lashley 0.38% 263 276 117
Nick Hardy 0.20% 500 376 117
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.78% 128 81 96
Noah Goodwin 0.08% 1250 1001 63
Patrick Fishburn 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 71 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 0.81% 123 111 56
Paul Peterson 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 127 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Malnati 0.05% 2000 1501 71
Philip Knowles 0.01% 10000 3001 117
Pierceson Coody 0.22% 455 301 113
Quade Cummins 0.20% 500 301 71
Rafael Campos 0.08% 1250 1001 129
Ricky Castillo 0.16% 625 351 15
Rico Hoey 0.62% 161 91 117
Rikuya Hoshino 0.18% 556 351 71
Ryan Gerard 0.28% 357 201 15
Ryan Hall 0.03% 3333 601 135
Ryan Palmer 0.08% 1250 601 124
Ryo Hisatsune 0.38% 263 226 135
Sahith Theegala 1.91% 52 34 52
Sam Ryder 0.37% 270 201 25
Sam Stevens 0.78% 128 91 2
Sami Valimaki 0.07% 1429 751 15
Scott Gutschewski 0.01% 10000 4001 117
Seonghyeon Kim 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 117 -0.2 Paddy Power: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Shane Lowry 1.98% 51 41 80
Si Woo Kim 1.59% 63 61 80
Stephan Jaeger 1.25% 80 61 80
Steven Fisk 0.08% 1250 501 63
Sungjae Im 4.69% 21 19 4
Takumi Kanaya 0.35% 286 276 80
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 751 124
Taylor Montgomery 0.18% 556 351 102
Taylor Moore 1.09% 92 111 0.20% 56 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Pendrith 2.52% 40 34 7
Thomas Detry 1.11% 90 67 15
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.07% 1429 501 142
Thriston Lawrence 0.33% 303 161 117
Tony Finau 3.46% 29 31 0.20% 102 -0.2 Spreadex: 30/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trevor Cone 0.04% 2500 751 129
Trey Mullinax 0.34% 294 301 96
Troy Merritt 0.04% 2500 1501 96
Victor Perez 0.93% 108 141 0.20% 80 -0.2 Skybet: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Vincent Norrman 0.27% 370 201 40
Wesley Bryan 0.09% 1111 401 25
Will Chandler 0.01% 10000 2001 102
Will Gordon 0.14% 714 751 7
William Mouw 0.08% 1250 601 66
Willie Mack 0.00% 10000 4001 124
Zac Blair 0.20% 500 601 32
Zach Johnson 0.48% 208 401 0.20% 48 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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