Simulation Results: Corales Puntacana Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.11% 909 601 26
Adam Svensson 1.30% 77 81 0.10% 24 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aldrich Potgieter 0.50% 200 51 116
Alejandro Tosti 1.25% 80 41 2
Alex Smalley 4.63% 22 19 63
Andrew Putnam 2.41% 41 61 0.80% 26 -0.8 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook 0.23% 435 176 107
Ben Crane 0.01% 10000 2001 71
Ben Kohles 0.97% 103 126 0.20% 59 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Martin 0.93% 108 91 9
Ben Polland 0.07% 1429 1501 53
Bill Haas 0.09% 1111 601 100
Bo Hoag 0.00% 10000 1001 107
Bo Van Pelt 0.02% 5000 1501 72
Braden Thornberry 0.16% 625 601 41
Brandon Matthews 0.01% 10000 2001 72
Brian Stuard 0.09% 1111 1001 69
Cameron Champ 0.48% 208 101 85
Carl Yuan 0.07% 1429 501 72
Carson Young 1.35% 74 67 113
Chad Ramey 1.42% 70 56 18
Chan Kim 3.58% 28 34 0.70% 7 -0.7 Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chandler Phillips 2.08% 48 61 0.40% 85 -0.4 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hoffman 1.78% 56 41 9
Chesson Hadley 0.15% 667 276 116
Chez Reavie 0.19% 526 276 72
Chris Gotterup 1.48% 68 51 18
Cody Gribble 0.01% 10000 1001 63
Connor Doyal 0.00% 10000 2501 116
Cougar Collins 0.00% 10000 4001 113
Cristobal Del Solar 0.10% 1000 751 72
Danny Walker 0.82% 122 101 31
Danny Willett 0.93% 108 101 37
David Hearn 0.03% 3333 2001 127
David Lipsky 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Skinns 0.33% 303 301 24
Dylan Frittelli 0.29% 345 176 125
Dylan Wu 0.79% 127 126 12
Emiliano Grillo 2.07% 48 51 0.10% 41 -0.1 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Enrique Valverde 0.00% 10000 4001 130
Erik Compton 0.01% 10000 1001 116
Erik Van Rooyen 1.41% 71 61 100
Fabian Gomez 0.24% 417 401 85
Frankie Capan 0.39% 256 351 0.10% 100 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Garrick Higgo 1.61% 62 46 1
George McNeill 0.03% 3333 1001 41
Greyson Sigg 1.59% 63 61 41
Harry Hall 4.41% 23 21 49
Harry Higgs 0.56% 179 126 107
Hayden Buckley 0.18% 556 401 49
Hayden Springer 1.34% 75 51 41
Henrik Norlander 2.30% 43 41 18
Hiram Silfa 0.00% 10000 4001 116
Jackson Suber 0.35% 286 131 67
James Hahn 0.37% 270 226 113
Jason Dufner 0.04% 2500 1001 85
Jeff Overton 0.00% 10000 2501 116
Jeremy Paul 0.91% 110 96 2
Jimmy Walker 0.03% 3333 751 85
Joel Dahmen 1.62% 62 41 2
John Pak 0.37% 270 201 63
Jonathan Byrd 0.19% 526 451 107
Joseph Bramlett 1.60% 63 51 38
Juan Jose Guerra 0.00% 10000 4001 116
Justin Hicks 0.00% 10000 3001 127
Justin Lower 1.97% 51 51 31
Kaito Onishi 0.15% 667 601 18
Keith Mitchell 3.88% 26 17 2
Kevin Chappell 0.39% 256 161 100
Kevin Kisner 0.08% 1250 1001 72
Kevin Roy 1.12% 89 61 31
Kevin Tway 0.59% 169 131 85
Kevin Velo 0.20% 500 301 100
Kris Ventura 0.72% 139 111 31
Kyle Stanley 0.00% 10000 2501 100
Lanto Griffin 0.84% 119 91 132
Luke List 0.95% 105 111 85
Mac Meissner 1.85% 54 61 0.20% 53 -0.2 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manuel Torres 0.00% 10000 2001 127
Mark Hubbard 1.28% 78 81 12
Martin Laird 0.60% 167 176 72
Mason Andersen 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 63 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 0.43% 233 161 12
Matt Wallace 3.06% 33 34 0.10% 12 -0.1 QuinnBet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Riedel 0.31% 323 151 70
Matti Schmid 1.45% 69 51 9
Max McGreevy 1.53% 65 46 49
Michael Thorbjornsen 1.13% 88 61 2
Nate Lashley 1.23% 81 67 53
Nicholas Thompson 0.00% 10000 2501 85
Nick Hardy 0.76% 132 131 41
Nick Watney 0.13% 769 1001 72
Noah Goodwin 0.86% 116 101 85
Patrick Flavin 0.18% 556 601 49
Paul Peterson 0.56% 179 276 0.20% 100 -0.2 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Waring 0.21% 476 501 85
Philip Knowles 0.08% 1250 1001 85
Pierceson Coody 1.52% 66 41 31
Quade Cummins 1.43% 70 61 41
Rafael Campos 0.44% 227 151 72
Ricky Barnes 0.05% 2000 1001 107
Ricky Castillo 1.14% 88 56 38
Rico Hoey 2.30% 43 34 12
Rikuya Hoshino 0.74% 135 126 26
Robert Streb 0.04% 2500 751 85
Rodrigo Huerta 0.00% 10000 4001 130
Russell Knox 0.73% 137 111 68
Ryan Armour 0.05% 2000 751 125
Ryan Fox 2.42% 41 31 59
Sam Choi 0.00% 10000 2001 38
Scott Piercy 0.21% 476 351 26
Seamus Power 2.74% 36 29 18
Seung-Yul Noh 0.56% 179 161 85
Stephen Stallings 0.01% 10000 1501 116
Steven Fisk 1.85% 54 51 72
Sung Kang 0.00% 10000 2001 85
Takumi Kanaya 0.93% 108 91 72
Taylor Dickson 0.21% 476 501 72
Taylor Montgomery 0.42% 238 151 116
Theo Humphrey 0.16% 625 501 53
Thomas Aiken 0.16% 625 601 59
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.31% 323 12
Tim Widing 0.35% 286 176 85
Tommy Gainey 0.04% 2500 1001 53
Trevor Cone 0.21% 476 301 107
Troy Merritt 0.21% 476 326 41
Tyler Duncan 0.67% 149 101 72
Vince Whaley 1.31% 76 61 7
Will Chandler 0.14% 714 601 26
William Mouw 0.76% 132 91 59
Willy Pumarol 0.01% 10000 2001 53
Zac Blair 0.32% 313 201 18

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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