Simulation Results: Cognizant Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Schenk 0.35% 286 126 103
Adam Svensson 0.59% 169 111 94
Alejandro Tosti 0.29% 345 176 68
Alex Smalley 1.06% 94 56 18
Andrew Novak 1.22% 82 51 111
Andrew Putnam 1.10% 91 126 0.30% 11 -0.3 Skybet: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.48% 208 151 62
Austin Eckroat 1.09% 92 56 111
Beau Hossler 1.12% 89 71 32
Ben Griffin 1.78% 56 51 4
Ben Kohles 0.53% 189 201 94
Ben Martin 0.35% 286 201 103
Ben Polland 0.01% 10000 4001 62
Ben Silverman 0.67% 149 161 111
Billy Horschel 1.33% 75 51 25
Bo Hoag 0.01% 10000 2501 140
Braden Thornberry 0.05% 2000 1001 132
Brandt Snedeker 0.12% 833 601 69
Brendon Todd 0.04% 2500 1001 144
Brian Campbell 0.75% 133 111 48
Brian Harman 1.70% 59 61 0.10% 32 -0.1 Skybet: 55/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brice Garnett 0.35% 286 251 11
Bud Cauley 0.90% 111 71 56
Byeong Hun An 1.17% 85 61 122
C.T. Pan 0.71% 141 91 122
Cameron Young 1.35% 74 46 69
Camilo Villegas 0.08% 1250 501 69
Carson Young 0.28% 357 226 111
Chad Ramey 0.44% 227 251 69
Chan Kim 0.72% 139 126 32
Chandler Phillips 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 140 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hoffman 0.59% 169 176 25
Chris Gotterup 0.37% 270 226 69
Chris Kirk 0.68% 147 91 56
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cristobal Del Solar 0.03% 3333 1001 126
Daniel Berger 1.86% 54 26 25
Danny Willett 0.15% 667 301 69
David Lipsky 0.20% 500 501 69
David Skinns 0.14% 714 501 122
Davis Riley 0.06% 1667 501 48
Davis Thompson 1.56% 64 41 94
Denny McCarthy 2.83% 35 36 0.10% 48 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 10pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim 0.70% 143 91 11
Dylan Wu 0.27% 370 251 128
Emiliano Grillo 0.29% 345 301 69
Eric Cole 0.75% 133 91 111
Erik Van Rooyen 0.59% 169 131 9
Francesco Molinari 0.17% 588 501 65
Frankie Capan 0.45% 222 201 128
Gary Woodland 0.98% 102 81 103
Greyson Sigg 0.68% 147 101 64
Harry Hall 1.07% 93 67 69
Harry Higgs 0.12% 833 501 136
Henrik Norlander 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 69 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.54% 185 126 39
J.J. Spaun 1.24% 81 61 2
Jackson Suber 0.16% 625 201 42
Jacob Bridgeman 0.67% 149 126 2
Jake Knapp 0.55% 182 91 6
Jeremy Paul 0.27% 370 69
Jesper Svensson 0.36% 278 126 32
Jhonattan Vegas 0.69% 145 81 61
Joe Highsmith 0.62% 161 111 1
Joel Dahmen 0.54% 185 126 32
Jordan Spieth 1.27% 79 46 9
Justin Hicks 0.00% 10000 4001 143
Justin Lower 0.63% 159 151 94
Karl Vilips 0.08% 1250 301 39
Keith Mitchell 1.27% 79 51 42
Kevin Kisner 0.02% 5000 2501 111
Kevin Roy 0.62% 161 101 94
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 1501 103
Kris Ventura 0.50% 200 126 56
Kurt Kitayama 1.15% 87 46 103
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.47% 213 151 103
Lucas Glover 1.50% 67 56 69
Luke Clanton 1.58% 63 51 18
Luke Donald 0.05% 2000 1501 140
Luke List 0.34% 294 301 69
Mac Meissner 0.63% 159 126 136
Mackenzie Hughes 0.94% 106 101 126
Mark Hubbard 0.70% 143 161 0.10% 128 -0.1 Skybet: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matt Kuchar 0.64% 156 126 56
Matt McCarty 0.26% 385 226 48
Matt Wallace 0.58% 172 126 69
Matteo Manassero 0.42% 238 176 94
Matthew Riedel 0.06% 1667 751 65
Matthieu Pavon 0.35% 286 251 42
Matti Schmid 0.38% 263 251 18
Max Greyserman 1.72% 58 51 11
Max McGreevy 0.41% 244 201 4
Michael Kim 1.42% 70 56 6
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.40% 250 161 39
Min Woo Lee 1.54% 65 36 11
Nate Lashley 0.22% 455 501 136
Nick Hardy 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 94 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria 0.59% 169 101 69
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.65% 154 61 18
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.76% 132 91 25
Patrick Fishburn 0.71% 141 126 48
Patrick Rodgers 1.37% 73 56 18
Patrick Sheehan 0.00% 10000 2501 111
Patton Kizzire 0.36% 278 301 69
Paul Peterson 0.13% 769 751 69
Paul Waring 0.14% 714 601 111
Peter Malnati 0.15% 667 751 132
Pierceson Coody 0.39% 256 126 69
Quade Cummins 0.29% 345 176 32
Rafael Campos 0.14% 714 1001 111
Rickie Fowler 1.14% 88 61 18
Ricky Castillo 0.34% 294 201 56
Rico Hoey 0.44% 227 176 25
Rikuya Hoshino 0.20% 500 351 48
Russell Henley 4.62% 22 26 0.80% 6 1.36 Paddy Power: 22/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox 0.68% 147 126 69
Ryan Gerard 0.78% 128 71 25
Ryan Palmer 0.04% 2500 751 136
Ryo Hisatsune 0.60% 167 176 94
Sam Ryder 0.56% 179 126 48
Sami Valimaki 0.24% 417 501 48
Seamus Power 1.45% 69 81 0.20% 111 -0.2 Paddy Power: 70/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka 2.48% 40 26 11
Shane Lowry 3.57% 28 21 11
Steven Fisk 0.41% 244 251 69
Sungjae Im 3.68% 27 26 69
Taylor Dickson 0.08% 1250 1001 103
Taylor Montgomery 0.23% 435 401 25
Taylor Moore 1.30% 77 56 42
Taylor Pendrith 2.29% 44 34 69
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.09% 1111 601 69
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.73% 137 111 94
Thriston Lawrence 0.27% 370 251 103
Tim Widing 0.05% 2000 501 69
Tom Hoge 0.97% 103 126 0.20% 67 -0.2 Paddy Power: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Trey Mullinax 0.32% 313 226 128
Victor Perez 0.67% 149 161 18
Vince Whaley 0.42% 238 251 32
Vincent Norrman 0.27% 370 251 111
Webb Simpson 0.38% 263 251
Will Chandler 0.16% 625 501 132
Will Gordon 0.30% 333 301 69
William Mouw 0.10% 1000 501 122
Zach Johnson 0.42% 238 226 42

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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