Simulation Results: Cognizant Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.24%	417	301		13
Aaron Rai	2.18%	46	36		23
Aaron Wise	0.05%	2000	551		111
Adam Hadwin	0.55%	182	151		94
Adam Schenk	0.22%	455	301		60
Adam Svensson	0.28%	357	201		81
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.43%	233	111		23
Adrien Saddier	0.50%	200	151		56
Alejandro Tosti	0.02%	5000	501		122
Alex Smalley	1.81%	55	46		52
Andrew Putnam	1.13%	88	141	0.40%	94	-0.4	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat	0.81%	123	81		40
Austin Smotherman	0.31%	323	176		2
Beau Hossler	0.43%	233	131		23
Billy Horschel	1.13%	88	81		62
Blades Brown	0.38%	263	111		104
Brandt Snedeker	0.29%	345	276		101
Brendon Todd	0.02%	5000	1501		114
Brice Garnett	0.31%	323	251		94
Brooks Koepka	1.07%	93	36		9
Cam Davis	0.10%	1000	501		119
Camilo Villegas	0.06%	1667	601		94
Carson Young	0.55%	182	176		52
Chad Ramey	0.72%	139	111		17
Chan Kim	0.42%	238	181		56
Chandler Blanchet	0.25%	400	151		68
Chandler Phillips	0.56%	179	176		63
Charley Hoffman	0.05%	2000	501		101
Chris Kirk	1.70%	59	56		81
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.28%	44	41		37
Christo Lamprecht	0.13%	769	226		111
Daniel Berger	2.33%	43	34		32
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.03%	97	91		40
Danny Walker	0.14%	714	601		40
Danny Willett	0.09%	1111	1251		94
David Ford	0.50%	200	81		32
David Lipsky	0.44%	227	151		68
Davis Chatfield	0.16%	625	501		81
Davis Riley	0.27%	370	176		68
Davis Thompson	1.74%	57	41		60
Doug Ghim	0.99%	101	81		68
Dylan Wu	0.61%	164	126		66
Emiliano Grillo	1.24%	81	91	0.10%	56	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Eric Cole	1.10%	91	76		37
Erik Van Rooyen	0.36%	278	151		81
Frankie Capan	0.06%	1667	501		119
Garrick Higgo	1.16%	86	67		40
Gary Woodland	0.66%	152	126		81
Gordon Sargent	0.05%	2000	601		68
Hank Lebioda	0.17%	588	401		40
Haotong Li	1.23%	81	42		32
Harry Higgs	0.13%	769	451		109
Isaiah Salinda	0.42%	238	176		121
Jackson Suber	0.42%	238	176		63
Jeffrey Kang	0.09%	1111	501		104
Jesper Svensson	0.77%	130	91		81
Jimmy Stanger	0.02%	5000	601		32
Joe Highsmith	0.16%	625	276		67
Joel Dahmen	0.69%	145	106		9
John Parry	1.11%	90	71		63
John VanDerLaan	0.29%	345	201		81
Johnny Keefer	1.37%	73	51		94
Jordan Smith	1.80%	56	51		23
Justin Hicks	0.00%	10000	5001		109
Justin Lower	0.22%	455	251		94
Karl Vilips	0.52%	192	151		104
Keita Nakajima	0.52%	192	151		123
Keith Mitchell	2.38%	42	31		6
Kensei Hirata	0.20%	500	301		104
Kevin Roy	0.87%	115	91		23
Kevin Streelman	0.09%	1111	601		32
Kevin Yu	1.09%	92	81		68
Kris Ventura	0.92%	109	81		68
Kristoffer Reitan	0.66%	152	51		17
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.04%	2500	351		111
Lanto Griffin	0.25%	400	226		68
Lee Hodges	0.82%	122	91		40
Luke Clanton	0.43%	233	126		68
Mac Meissner	1.41%	71	51		68
Mackenzie Hughes	1.33%	75	61		23
Marcelo Rozo	0.06%	1667	1001		114
Mark Hubbard	0.45%	222	176		23
Matt Kuchar	1.10%	91	151	0.40%	81	-0.4	Skybet: 100/1, 12pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace	1.28%	78	67		40
Matthieu Pavon	0.45%	222	226		17
Matti Schmid	0.68%	147	126		9
Max Homa	1.90%	53	56	0.10%	13	-0.1	Skybet: 35/1, 12pl, 1/5
Max McGreevy	1.62%	62	41		40
Michael Brennan	0.69%	145	61		52
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.85%	54	26		68
Neal Shipley	0.30%	333	201		81
Nick Dunlap	0.08%	1250	276		104
Nico Echavarria	1.01%	99	61		1
Nicolai Hojgaard	2.46%	41	21		6
Patrick Fishburn	0.35%	286	201		40
Patton Kizzire	0.18%	556	351		13
Paul Waring	0.09%	1111	601		81
Peter Malnati	0.09%	1111	601		81
Pontus Nyholm	0.05%	2000	751		13
Rafael Campos	0.09%	1111	751		117
Rasmus Hojgaard	2.50%	40	23		9
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.80%	56	36		40
Ricky Castillo	0.99%	101	67		5
Rico Hoey	1.43%	70	51		114
Ryan Gerard	3.43%	29	17		23
Sam Ryder	0.75%	133	111		68
Sami Valimaki	1.89%	53	56	0.10%	117	-0.1	Skybet: 40/1, 12pl, 1/5
Seamus Power	1.41%	71	67		52
Seonghyeon Kim	0.62%	161	101		101
Shane Lowry	6.33%	16	17	0.50%	2	0.45	Ladbrokes: 14/1, 10pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger	1.51%	66	61		81
Steven Fisk	0.88%	114	101		37
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.32%	313	201		17
Takumi Kanaya	0.73%	137	126		17
Taylor Moore	0.68%	147	126		2
Thorbjorn Olesen	2.10%	48	46		40
Tom Kim	1.43%	70	61		59
Vince Whaley	0.81%	123	86		81
Webb Simpson	0.33%	303	176		68
Will Zalatoris	1.71%	58	41
William Mouw	0.33%	303	176		6
Zach Bauchou	0.37%	270	176		23
Zecheng Dou	0.66%	152	111		17

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.70%	143	151		52
Aaron Rai	1.98%	51	56	0.20%	9	-0.2	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wise	0.11%	909	251		82
Adam Hadwin	1.00%	100	101		52
Adam Schenk	0.23%	435	176		20
Adam Svensson	0.79%	127	111		68
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.90%	111	91		52
Adrien Saddier	0.97%	103	101		20
Alejandro Tosti	0.26%	385	251		117
Alex Smalley	0.71%	141	67		68
Andrew Putnam	0.56%	179	111		82
Austin Eckroat	1.19%	84	71		52
Austin Smotherman	0.77%	130	101		1
Beau Hossler	0.95%	105	101		9
Billy Horschel	1.48%	68	81	0.20%	20	-0.2	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blades Brown	0.84%	119	91		108
Brandt Snedeker	0.27%	370	176		68
Brendon Todd	0.22%	455	401		117
Brice Garnett	0.27%	370	176		82
Brooks Koepka	0.56%	179	51		98
Cam Davis	0.16%	625	251		68
Camilo Villegas	0.42%	238	251		35
Carson Young	0.39%	256	141		35
Chad Ramey	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	9	-0.2	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chan Kim	0.97%	103	126	0.20%	20	-0.2	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chandler Blanchet	0.72%	139	101		20
Chandler Phillips	0.39%	256	126		98
Charley Hoffman	0.14%	714	251		82
Chris Kirk	1.78%	56	61	0.10%	35	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.83%	120	67		52
Christo Lamprecht	0.53%	189	151		108
Daniel Berger	0.85%	118	61		3
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.50%	200	101		20
Danny Walker	0.17%	588	251		68
Danny Willett	0.57%	175	301	0.20%	52	-0.2	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Ford	0.97%	103	81		68
David Lipsky	0.35%	286	126		35
Davis Chatfield	0.15%	667	251		82
Davis Riley	0.77%	130	111		98
Davis Thompson	1.74%	57	56		35
Doug Ghim	1.35%	74	71		68
Dylan Wu	0.38%	263	111		82
Emiliano Grillo	0.62%	161	101		52
Eric Cole	0.51%	196	86		52
Erik Van Rooyen	0.27%	370	126		68
Frankie Capan	0.35%	286	201		108
Garrick Higgo	1.43%	70	71		52
Gary Woodland	0.44%	227	101		68
Gordon Sargent	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	35	-0.1	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hank Lebioda	0.58%	172	181		9
Haotong Li	0.57%	175	61		52
Harry Higgs	0.56%	179	181		98
Isaiah Salinda	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	117	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jackson Suber	0.91%	110	101		3
Jeffrey Kang	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	98	-0.1	Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jesper Svensson	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	35	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jimmy Stanger	0.22%	455	251		20
Joe Highsmith	0.61%	164	126		35
Joel Dahmen	1.13%	88	91		9
John Parry	1.50%	67	101	0.50%	52	-0.5	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
John VanDerLaan	0.75%	133	141		108
Johnny Keefer	1.67%	60	56		35
Jordan Smith	1.73%	58	61	0.10%	52	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Hicks	0.02%	5000	501		98
Justin Lower	0.26%	385	151		108
Karl Vilips	0.95%	105	101		20
Keita Nakajima	0.96%	104	101		82
Keith Mitchell	1.99%	50	46		9
Kensei Hirata	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	108	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Roy	0.52%	192	91		3
Kevin Streelman	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	20	-0.1	Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Yu	1.42%	70	71		9
Kris Ventura	0.47%	213	91		52
Kristoffer Reitan	0.40%	250	67		3
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.35%	286	181		108
Lanto Griffin	0.25%	400	141		68
Lee Hodges	1.19%	84	81		20
Luke Clanton	1.00%	100	126	0.20%	82	-0.2	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mac Meissner	1.72%	58	61	0.10%	82	-0.1	William Hill: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mackenzie Hughes	0.68%	147	71		108
Marcelo Rozo	0.13%	769	301		117
Mark Hubbard	0.35%	286	126		20
Matt Kuchar	0.57%	175	111		68
Matt Wallace	1.51%	66	67		82
Matthieu Pavon	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	52	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid	0.45%	222	111		20
Max Homa	0.71%	141	67		82
Max McGreevy	1.70%	59	56		9
Michael Brennan	0.45%	222	71		9
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.71%	141	51		68
Neal Shipley	0.74%	135	111		35
Nick Dunlap	0.41%	244	126		98
Nico Echavarria	1.38%	72	61		2
Nicolai Hojgaard	2.04%	49	36		35
Patrick Fishburn	0.83%	120	126		82
Patton Kizzire	0.23%	435	181		35
Paul Waring	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	68	-0.1	Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Malnati	0.15%	667	251		98
Pontus Nyholm	0.11%	909	251		3
Rafael Campos	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	117	-0.1	Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.87%	115	46		20
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.80%	56	67	0.30%	35	-0.3	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ricky Castillo	1.37%	73	67		20
Rico Hoey	1.64%	61	67	0.10%	122	-0.1	VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Gerard	1.05%	95	41		82
Sam Ryder	1.14%	88	91		98
Sami Valimaki	0.80%	125	67		123
Seamus Power	0.64%	156	86		52
Seonghyeon Kim	1.07%	93	91		98
Shane Lowry	3.39%	29	36	0.60%	35	-0.6	Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephan Jaeger	1.66%	60	61		52
Steven Fisk	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	20	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.80%	125	111		9
Takumi Kanaya	0.45%	222	126		82
Taylor Moore	1.11%	90	91		3
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.78%	128	71		35
Tom Kim	0.59%	169	86		108
Vince Whaley	1.27%	79	81		35
Webb Simpson	0.83%	120	101		82
Will Zalatoris	0.68%	147	61
William Mouw	0.30%	333	126		9
Zach Bauchou	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	35	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zecheng Dou	1.13%	88	91		68

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Shane Lowry	6.33%	16	17	0.50%	2	1.8	Ladbrokes: 14/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Andrew Putnam	1.13%	88	141	0.40%	94	-2	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Matt Kuchar	1.10%	91	151	0.40%	81	-2	Skybet: 100/1, 12pl, 1/5
FRL: Shane Lowry	3.39%	29	36	0.60%	35	-1	Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: John Parry	1.50%	67	101	0.50%	52	-1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.80%	56	67	0.30%	35	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Aaron Rai	1.98%	51	56	0.20%	82	-1	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Billy Horschel	1.48%	68	81	0.20%	68	-1	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Chad Ramey	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	98	-1	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.