Simulation Results: Charles Schwab Challenge

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.31%	323	226		17
Adam Schenk	0.09%	1111	601		74
Adam Svensson	0.26%	385	301		85
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.44%	227	126		85
Adrien Saddier	0.30%	333	226		42
Akshay Bhatia	1.61%	62	36		28
Albert Hansson	0.00%	10000	1001		126
Alejandro Tosti	0.04%	2500	1001		105
Alex Smalley	1.75%	57	36		3
Andrew Novak	0.77%	130	67		54
Andrew Putnam	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	17	-0.2	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Eckroat	0.84%	119	91		67
Austin Smotherman	0.40%	250	126		42
Beau Hossler	0.66%	152	126		85
Ben Griffin	2.82%	35	26		3
Ben Kohles	0.32%	313	226		85
Ben Martin	0.09%	1111	751		130
Billy Horschel	0.36%	278	181		42
Brandt Snedeker	0.39%	256	226		28
Brian Campbell	0.08%	1250	501		105
Brian Harman	1.25%	80	61		22
Brice Garnett	0.08%	1250	601		22
Bud Cauley	1.43%	70	56
Cam Davis	0.06%	1667	1001		85
Camilo Villegas	0.09%	1111	1001		85
Chad Ramey	0.40%	250	151		76
Chandler Blanchet	0.24%	417	351		42
Chandler Phillips	0.21%	476	501		117
Charley Hoffman	0.04%	2500	501		105
Chris Kirk	1.02%	98	81		122
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.07%	48	67	0.60%	32	-0.6	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.08%	1250	751		97
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.43%	233	201		117
Danny Walker	0.10%	1000	751		85
David Lipsky	0.30%	333	301		122
David Skinns	0.26%	385	451		117
Davis Chatfield	0.13%	769	601		97
Davis Riley	0.10%	1000	351		71
Davis Thompson	1.19%	84	61		35
Doug Ghim	1.24%	81	91	0.10%	28	-0.1	William Hill: 80/1, 6pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu	0.15%	667	501		105
Emiliano Grillo	0.70%	143	126		42
Eric Cole	0.99%	101	91		2
Erik Van Rooyen	0.33%	303	201		70
Garrick Higgo	0.27%	370	201		32
Gary Woodland	1.64%	61	46		6
Hank Lebioda	0.18%	556	351		105
Haotong Li	0.60%	167	101		97
Harry Hall	1.95%	51	41		105
Hayden Springer	0.30%	333	276		105
Hideki Matsuyama	2.20%	45	31		13
J.J. Spaun	2.34%	43	29		6
J.T. Poston	1.13%	88	67		35
Jackson Suber	0.60%	167	126		67
Jeffrey Kang	0.09%	1111	601		42
Jimmy Stanger	0.11%	909	501		105
Joe Highsmith	0.06%	1667	751		117
Joel Dahmen	0.11%	909	451		42
John Parry	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	128	-0.3	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.16%	625	451		76
Johnny Keefer	0.62%	161	111		35
Jordan Smith	0.85%	118	86		13
Justin Thomas	2.35%	43	21		13
Karl Vilips	0.37%	270	151		128
Keegan Bradley	2.03%	49	41		35
Keita Nakajima	0.26%	385	251		28
Keith Mitchell	1.36%	74	41		85
Kensei Hirata	0.18%	556	301		97
Kevin Kisner	0.02%	5000	2001		76
Kevin Roy	0.49%	204	176		74
Kevin Streelman	0.09%	1111	751		42
Kevin Yu	0.43%	233	176		35
Kris Ventura	0.44%	227	151		76
Lanto Griffin	0.23%	435	301		32
Lee Hodges	0.44%	227	151		35
Lucas Glover	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	71	-0.1	Sporting Index: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ludvig Aberg	7.06%	14	10		17
Luke Clanton	0.20%	500	276		54
Mac Meissner	1.44%	69	56		3
Mackenzie Hughes	0.35%	286	151		10
Marcelo Rozo	0.08%	1250	1501		76
Mark Hubbard	0.56%	179	151		60
Mason Howell	0.03%	3333	1001		97
Matt Kuchar	0.38%	263	251		22
Matt McCarty	1.11%	90	61		60
Matthieu Pavon	0.35%	286	251		76
Max Greyserman	1.38%	72	56		122
Max Homa	0.79%	127	126		22
Max McGreevy	0.56%	179	141		35
Michael Brennan	0.57%	175	91		6
Michael Kim	1.03%	97	101		17
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.70%	143	67		16
Neal Shipley	0.26%	385	301		85
Nick Dunlap	0.11%	909	351		60
Nick Hardy	0.14%	714	601		97
Nico Echavarria	0.32%	313	181		6
Patrick Rodgers	0.79%	127	111		60
Patton Kizzire	0.05%	2000	1001		126
Paul Peterson	0.27%	370	601	0.10%	97	-0.1	Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierceson Coody	1.70%	59	46		22
Pontus Nyholm	0.11%	909	501		85
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.25%	80	81		117
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.73%	137	101		42
Rickie Fowler	3.44%	29	26		114
Ricky Castillo	0.63%	159	151		42
Rico Hoey	0.82%	122	81		17
Robert MacIntyre	2.70%	37	26		42
Russell Henley	4.91%	20	19		1
Ryan Gerard	0.84%	119	67		10
Ryan Palmer	0.01%	10000	3001		131
Ryo Hisatsune	1.23%	81	46		66
Sahith Theegala	1.02%	98	67		60
Sam Ryder	0.42%	238	151		85
Sam Stevens	0.77%	130	67		42
Seamus Power	0.65%	154	126		54
Stephan Jaeger	0.99%	101	91		132
Steven Fisk	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	10	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.46%	217	81		76
Sungjae Im	1.42%	70	46		125
Takumi Kanaya	0.30%	333	351		54
Taylor Moore	0.75%	133	71		60
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.00%	100	91		67
Tom Hoge	0.44%	227	126		71
Tom Kim	0.94%	106	81		54
Tony Finau	0.98%	102	61		85
Trace Crowe	0.21%	476	276		114
Vince Whaley	0.47%	213	226		114
Webb Simpson	0.26%	385	301		105
William Mouw	0.50%	200	181		76
Zac Blair	0.36%	278	201		76
Zach Bauchou	0.73%	137	111		22
Zecheng Dou	0.41%	244	181		97

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.47%	213	126		83
Adam Schenk	0.42%	238	201		19
Adam Svensson	0.58%	172	131		83
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.86%	116	101		19
Adrien Saddier	0.43%	233	126		57
Akshay Bhatia	0.98%	102	51		32
Albert Hansson	0.05%	2000	301		122
Alejandro Tosti	0.27%	370	226		117
Alex Smalley	1.50%	67	46		7
Andrew Novak	1.03%	97	71		57
Andrew Putnam	1.35%	74	67		1
Austin Eckroat	1.10%	91	91		41
Austin Smotherman	0.46%	217	101		41
Beau Hossler	0.59%	169	101		57
Ben Griffin	1.39%	72	51		41
Ben Kohles	0.42%	238	126		57
Ben Martin	0.39%	256	251		122
Billy Horschel	0.44%	227	126		7
Brandt Snedeker	0.50%	200	126		83
Brian Campbell	0.35%	286	201		83
Brian Harman	1.34%	75	67		7
Brice Garnett	0.39%	256	201		19
Cam Davis	0.30%	333	226		117
Camilo Villegas	0.23%	435	226		57
Chad Ramey	0.81%	123	111		57
Chandler Blanchet	0.36%	278	151		41
Chandler Phillips	0.38%	263	201		128
Charley Hoffman	0.20%	500	201		83
Chris Kirk	1.19%	84	81		83
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	41	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.20%	500	226		57
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.51%	196	126		57
Danny Walker	0.40%	250	226		83
David Lipsky	0.68%	147	126		122
David Skinns	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	83	-0.1	William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Chatfield	0.47%	213	201		57
Davis Riley	0.37%	270	141		19
Davis Thompson	0.88%	114	76		57
Doug Ghim	0.87%	115	91		7
Dylan Wu	0.49%	204	201		83
Emiliano Grillo	0.98%	102	91		83
Eric Cole	0.76%	132	81		32
Erik Van Rooyen	0.45%	222	126		7
Garrick Higgo	0.67%	149	126		57
Gary Woodland	0.96%	104	67		7
Hank Lebioda	0.56%	179	151		57
Haotong Li	0.61%	164	91		57
Harry Hall	1.68%	60	56		41
Hayden Springer	0.43%	233	141		103
Hideki Matsuyama	1.84%	54	51		19
J.J. Spaun	1.22%	82	56		1
J.T. Poston	1.31%	76	71		57
Jackson Suber	0.98%	102	91		57
Jeffrey Kang	0.25%	400	201		41
Jimmy Stanger	0.29%	345	201		41
Joe Highsmith	0.35%	286	226		131
Joel Dahmen	0.31%	323	176		57
John Parry	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	122	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.57%	175	176		41
Johnny Keefer	0.63%	159	91		103
Jordan Smith	1.14%	88	81		7
Justin Thomas	1.87%	53	36		57
Karl Vilips	0.47%	213	101		132
Keegan Bradley	1.74%	57	51		7
Keita Nakajima	0.70%	143	151		57
Keith Mitchell	0.87%	115	56		103
Kensei Hirata	0.32%	313	151		32
Kevin Kisner	0.20%	500	351		32
Kevin Roy	0.55%	182	126		32
Kevin Streelman	0.27%	370	226		41
Kevin Yu	0.81%	123	126		7
Kris Ventura	0.47%	213	126		57
Lanto Griffin	0.66%	152	141		103
Lee Hodges	0.52%	192	126		1
Lucas Glover	0.57%	175	126		83
Ludvig Aberg	2.31%	43	26		19
Luke Clanton	0.55%	182	126		7
Mac Meissner	1.34%	75	71		19
Mackenzie Hughes	0.74%	135	101		19
Marcelo Rozo	0.21%	476	301		83
Mark Hubbard	0.59%	169	111		41
Mason Howell	0.13%	769	276		117
Matt Kuchar	0.50%	200	131		32
Matt McCarty	0.79%	127	71		1
Matthieu Pavon	0.45%	222	141		103
Max Greyserman	0.91%	110	61		128
Max Homa	1.10%	91	91		19
Max McGreevy	0.92%	109	101		32
Michael Brennan	0.57%	175	91		32
Michael Kim	0.74%	135	91		83
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.07%	93	67		19
Neal Shipley	0.67%	149	126		103
Nick Dunlap	0.38%	263	151		83
Nick Hardy	0.47%	213	201		117
Nico Echavarria	0.74%	135	126		19
Patrick Fishburn	0.45%	222	141		83
Patrick Rodgers	0.70%	143	91		57
Patton Kizzire	0.32%	313	251		122
Paul Peterson	0.69%	145	181	0.10%	57	-0.1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierceson Coody	1.60%	63	56		103
Pontus Nyholm	0.28%	357	201		83
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.35%	74	76		83
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.70%	143	91		7
Rickie Fowler	1.54%	65	46		83
Ricky Castillo	0.90%	111	101		7
Rico Hoey	0.74%	135	81		41
Robert MacIntyre	2.03%	49	41		41
Russell Henley	2.65%	38	36		19
Ryan Gerard	1.10%	91	71		1
Ryan Palmer	0.05%	2000	501		117
Ryo Hisatsune	0.86%	116	61		19
Sahith Theegala	0.75%	133	71		32
Sam Ryder	0.78%	128	101		57
Sam Stevens	0.67%	149	71		41
Seamus Power	0.65%	154	101		57
Stephan Jaeger	0.75%	133	81		130
Steven Fisk	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	41	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.87%	115	81		103
Sungjae Im	1.37%	73	51		83
Takumi Kanaya	0.47%	213	151		57
Taylor Moore	0.66%	152	81		57
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	57	-0.2	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Hoge	0.55%	182	91		41
Tom Kim	0.71%	141	71		1
Tony Finau	0.73%	137	71		83
Trace Crowe	0.58%	172	151		103
Vince Whaley	0.83%	120	141	0.10%	103	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Webb Simpson	0.38%	263	151		103
William Mouw	0.82%	122	111		103
Zac Blair	0.73%	137	126		103
Zach Bauchou	0.70%	143	91		103
Zecheng Dou	0.52%	192	126		122

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.07%	48	67	0.60%	32	-2	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: John Parry	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	128	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Andrew Putnam	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	17	-2	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	41	-1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Thorbjorn Olesen	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	57	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: John Parry	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	122	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Steven Fisk	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	41	-1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Vince Whaley	0.83%	120	141	0.10%	103	-1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Paul Peterson	0.69%	145	181	0.10%	57	-1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.