Simulation Results: Charles Schwab Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 2.19% 46 31 80
Adam Schenk 0.18% 556 276 125
Adam Svensson 0.25% 400 226 46
Akshay Bhatia 0.90% 111 76 22
Aldrich Potgieter 0.07% 1429 351 6
Alejandro Tosti 0.24% 417 176 100
Alex Smalley 1.04% 96 81 90
Andrew Novak 0.83% 120 67 11
Andrew Putnam 0.75% 133 176 0.20% 44 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat 0.62% 161 126 46
Beau Hossler 0.39% 256 176 59
Ben Griffin 1.45% 69 61 1
Ben Kohles 0.17% 588 501 80
Ben Silverman 0.26% 385 276 70
Blades Brown 0.18% 556 401 100
Brandt Snedeker 0.04% 2500 751 80
Brian Campbell 0.35% 286 251 80
Brian Harman 1.63% 61 56 46
Brice Garnett 0.20% 500 501 36
Bud Cauley 0.61% 164 101 3
Cam Davis 0.49% 204 126 123
Camilo Villegas 0.04% 2500 2001 70
Carson Young 0.26% 385 251 53
Chad Ramey 0.24% 417 251 90
Chan Kim 0.38% 263 251 90
Chandler Phillips 0.41% 244 176 90
Charley Hoffman 0.31% 323 226 129
Chris Gotterup 0.47% 213 151 28
Chris Kirk 0.82% 122 126 100
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.04% 96 91 16
Corey Pavin 0.00% 10000 5001 131
Daniel Berger 2.69% 37 23 90
Danny Walker 0.24% 417 301 100
Danny Willett 0.14% 714 601 123
David Ford 0.01% 10000 251 106
David Frost 0.00% 10000 7501 133
David Lipsky 0.08% 1250 501 106
Davis Riley 0.41% 244 46 90
Davis Thompson 1.43% 70 61 100
Doug Ghim 0.42% 238 161 46
Dylan Wu 0.18% 556 501 70
Emiliano Grillo 0.62% 161 111 16
Eric Cole 0.86% 116 111 28
Erik Van Rooyen 0.40% 250 176 36
Frankie Capan 0.07% 1429 1001 77
Gary Woodland 0.94% 106 126 0.10% 11 -0.1 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Greyson Sigg 0.15% 667 501 80
Harris English 2.06% 49 34 53
Harry Hall 1.49% 67 71 0.10% 6 0.29 888sport: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Harry Higgs 0.10% 1000 501 59
Hayden Buckley 0.08% 1250 501 106
Hayden Springer 0.18% 556 501 77
Henrik Norlander 0.43% 233 176 59
Hideki Matsuyama 2.98% 34 29 36
Isaiah Salinda 0.19% 526 251 79
J.J. Spaun 1.52% 66 51 6
J.T. Poston 1.82% 55 41 36
Jackson Suber 0.05% 2000 1001 53
Jacob Bridgeman 0.69% 145 101 125
Jake Knapp 0.36% 278 151 90
Jeremy Paul 0.12% 833 601 59
Jesper Svensson 0.24% 417 201 46
Jhonattan Vegas 0.70% 143 126 116
Joe Highsmith 0.44% 227 151 116
Joel Dahmen 0.34% 294 201 116
John Pak 0.03% 3333 1001 28
Jordan Spieth 2.57% 39 29 36
Joseph Bramlett 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 106 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Lower 0.40% 250 251 90
Karl Vilips 0.08% 1250 301 11
Keith Mitchell 1.28% 78 56 36
Kevin Kisner 0.01% 10000 1001 80
Kevin Roy 0.20% 500 376 46
Kevin Yu 0.74% 135 111 106
Kris Ventura 0.11% 909 501 16
Kurt Kitayama 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 22 -0.1 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lanto Griffin 0.10% 1000 601 116
Lee Hodges 0.54% 185 161 53
Lucas Glover 1.08% 93 81 22
Luke List 0.12% 833 601 36
Mac Meissner 0.25% 400 251 28
Mackenzie Hughes 1.15% 87 67 80
Mark Hubbard 0.49% 204 151 28
Matt Kuchar 0.56% 179 176 53
Matt McCarty 0.41% 244 111 80
Matt Wallace 0.70% 143 111 22
Matti Schmid 0.40% 250 201 2
Maverick McNealy 2.55% 39 34 106
Max Greyserman 0.90% 111 111 22
Max McGreevy 0.24% 417 201 66
Michael Block 0.00% 10000 5001 100
Michael Kim 1.04% 96 81 16
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.54% 185 126
Nate Lashley 0.13% 769 501 122
Neal Shipley 0.35% 286 251 80
Nick Hardy 0.09% 1111 601 11
Nico Echavarria 0.32% 313 126 59
Olin Browne 0.00% 10000 5001 133
Patrick Fishburn 0.43% 233 251 106
Patrick Rodgers 0.82% 122 131 0.10% 28 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire 0.10% 1000 751 106
Peter Malnati 0.02% 5000 1501 66
Pierceson Coody 0.47% 213 161 16
Quade Cummins 0.26% 385 301 36
Rafael Campos 0.07% 1429 1251 125
Rickie Fowler 1.06% 94 111 0.20% 16 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ricky Castillo 0.29% 345 226 59
Rico Hoey 0.63% 159 131 66
Robby Shelton 0.16% 625 501 129
Robert MacIntyre 1.07% 93 51 6
Ryan Gerard 0.72% 139 67 73
Ryan Palmer 0.00% 10000 3001 116
Ryo Hisatsune 0.53% 189 111 6
Sam Ryder 0.43% 233 201 53
Sam Stevens 1.02% 98 91 28
Sami Valimaki 0.37% 270 201 106
Scottie Scheffler 19.23% 5.2 3.5 4
Seamus Power 0.89% 112 151 0.20% 59 -0.2 William Hill: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Si Woo Kim 2.28% 44 41 28
Steven Fisk 0.30% 333 251 66
Takumi Kanaya 0.33% 303 201 116
Taylor Dickson 0.08% 1250 751 132
Taylor Moore 0.99% 101 101 73
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.37% 73 71 46
Tom Hoge 0.65% 154 101 80
Tom Kim 0.74% 135 101 44
Tommy Fleetwood 4.84% 21 26 1.00% 4 1.5 Boyle Sports: 20/1, 10pl, 1/5
Trey Mullinax 0.14% 714 351 90
Victor Perez 0.72% 139 161 0.10% 75 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Vince Whaley 0.43% 233 201 11
Webb Simpson 0.17% 588 401 22
Will Chandler 0.06% 1667 1251 76
Will Gordon 0.13% 769 601 106
William Mouw 0.13% 769 501 125
Zac Blair 0.07% 1429 801 90

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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