Simulation Results: Canadian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A.J. Ewart 0.04% 2500 1001 106
Aaron Baddeley 0.05% 2000 2501 126
Aaron Wise 0.07% 1429 751 106
Adam Hadwin 0.47% 213 176 27
Adam Schenk 0.20% 500 351 65
Adam Svensson 0.48% 208 151 138
Alejandro Tosti 0.25% 400 176 69
Alex Noren 1.77% 56 61 0.10% 69 -0.1 Skybet: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley 1.27% 79 61 13
Andrew Putnam 1.18% 85 151 0.50% 6 -0.5 VBet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.53% 189 176 24
Ashton McCulloch 0.01% 10000 1001 69
Barend Botha 0.09% 1111 1001 119
Beau Hossler 0.60% 167 176 52
Ben Kohles 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 36 -0.1 VBet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Braden Thornberry 0.07% 1429 1251 126
Brandt Snedeker 0.23% 435 276 69
Brett Webster 0.00% 10000 5001 138
Brice Garnett 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 89 -0.1 VBet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Byeong Hun An 0.87% 115 101 6
Cameron Champ 0.18% 556 351 9
Cameron Young 1.38% 72 61 4
Camilo Villegas 0.09% 1111 2001 155
Carson Young 0.52% 192 201 52
Chad Ramey 0.32% 313 251 106
Chan Kim 0.49% 204 201 119
Chandler Phillips 0.49% 204 201 64
Charley Hoffman 0.41% 244 226 67
Chris Gotterup 0.80% 125 71 69
Corey Conners 4.50% 22 21 27
Cougar Collins 0.00% 10000 2501 149
Cristian DiMarco 0.08% 1250 4001 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 4000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cristobal Del Solar 0.08% 1250 2001 36
Danny Walker 0.36% 278 176 106
Danny Willett 0.19% 526 451 13
David Ford 0.04% 2500 351 89
David Hearn 0.00% 10000 5001 154
David Lipsky 0.12% 833 751 138
David Skinns 0.11% 909 601 9
Davis Riley 0.36% 278 81 59
Doug Ghim 0.80% 125 101 126
Dylan Wu 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 59 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emiliano Grillo 0.99% 101 111 0.10% 24 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Eric Cole 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 138 -0.2 Betfair: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.70% 143 81 69
Frankie Capan 0.14% 714 1001 138
Gary Woodland 1.41% 71 71 119
Gordon Sargent 0.02% 5000 501 89
Greyson Sigg 0.33% 303 301
Harrison Endycott 0.05% 2000 2001 69
Harry Hall 2.00% 50 51 24
Harry Higgs 0.18% 556 351 126
Hayden Buckley 0.13% 769 501 69
Hayden Springer 0.27% 370 276 59
Henrik Norlander 0.60% 167 176 52
Hunter Thomson 0.00% 10000 1001 106
Isaiah Salinda 0.39% 256 151 155
Jackson Suber 0.12% 833 751 18
Jake Knapp 0.54% 185 91 27
Jeremy Paul 0.33% 303 301 18
Jesper Svensson 0.45% 222 126 18
Joel Dahmen 0.38% 263 226 89
John Pak 0.12% 833 501 27
Johnny Keefer 1.71% 58 71 0.30% 106 -0.3 Betfair: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joseph Bramlett 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 106 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Josh Goldenberg 0.01% 10000 4001 147
Justin Lower 0.58% 172 176 68
Justin Matthews 0.04% 2500 3001 135
Justin Rose 1.15% 87 71 89
Kaito Onishi 0.11% 909 1501 138
Karl Vilips 0.35% 286 151 126
Keith Mitchell 1.85% 54 46 27
Kevin Kisner 0.03% 3333 2001 119
Kevin Roy 0.49% 204 201 18
Kevin Velo 0.10% 1000 751 69
Kevin Yu 0.84% 119 91 3
Kris Ventura 0.37% 270 276 69
Kurt Kitayama 1.39% 72 67 89
Lanto Griffin 0.16% 625 501 27
Lee Hodges 0.63% 159 126 9
Ludvig Aberg 3.89% 26 15 13
Luke Clanton 1.52% 66 51 89
Luke List 0.31% 323 301 69
Mac Meissner 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 126 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mackenzie Hughes 1.47% 68 51 27
Mark Hoffman 0.00% 10000 2501 153
Mark Hubbard 0.96% 104 81 47
Mason Andersen 0.06% 1667 1501 126
Matt McCarty 0.66% 152 126 4
Matt Wallace 1.21% 83 67 106
Matteo Manassero 0.37% 270 301 6
Matthew Anderson 0.08% 1250 751 47
Matthew Javier 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Matthew Riedel 0.04% 2500 2001 106
Matthew Scobie 0.00% 10000 4001 69
Matthieu Pavon 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 151 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid 0.98% 102 81 69
Max Homa 0.87% 115 81 69
Max McGreevy 0.33% 303 176 27
Mike Weir 0.00% 10000 3001 138
Myles Creighton 0.07% 1429 1501 106
Nate Lashley 0.23% 435 401 47
Nick Dunlap 0.27% 370 401 126
Nick Hardy 0.27% 370 251 89
Nick Taylor 1.60% 63 46 13
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.60% 167 91 89
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.68% 147 91 138
Noah Goodwin 0.12% 833 601 18
Patrick Fishburn 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 43 -0.1 Unibet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 1.16% 86 111 0.30% 69 -0.3 Skybet: 90/1, 8pl, 1/5
Paul Peterson 0.08% 1250 1001 52
Paul Waring 0.10% 1000 1501 94
Peter Malnati 0.05% 2000 1501 59
Philip Knowles 0.06% 1667 2501 119
Quade Cummins 0.51% 196 201 89
Rafael Campos 0.11% 909 1501 89
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.99% 101 71 43
Richard T. Lee 0.12% 833 501 36
Ricky Castillo 0.56% 179 126 69
Rico Hoey 0.81% 123 101 36
Robert MacIntyre 2.23% 45 29 36
Roger Sloan 0.14% 714 1001 119
Rory McIlroy 5.61% 18 6 150
Ryan Fox 1.24% 81 61 1
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 3001 147
Ryo Hisatsune 0.80% 125 81 47
Sam Burns 3.86% 26 29 0.40% 2 0.6 Betfair: 20/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sam Ryder 0.66% 152 151 119
Seamus Power 1.22% 82 126 0.40% Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shane Lowry 3.67% 27 23 13
Steven Fisk 0.53% 189 151 43
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.14% 714 601 135
Sungjae Im 3.11% 32 36 0.30% 106 -0.3 Skybet: 33/1, 8pl, 1/5
Takumi Kanaya 0.39% 256 226 89
Taylor Montgomery 0.17% 588 501 36
Taylor Moore 1.13% 88 101 0.10% 135 -0.1 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Pendrith 2.27% 44 29 27
Thomas Detry 1.14% 88 81 18
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.15% 667 69
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.62% 62 61 36
Tim Widing 0.10% 1000 751 89
Tom Kim 1.19% 84 91 0.10% 89 -0.1 Skybet: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Trevor Cone 0.05% 2000 1001 52
Trey Mullinax 0.32% 313 251 43
Tyler Mawhinney 0.00% 10000 4001 65
Victor Perez 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 9 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 5001 89
Vince Whaley 0.84% 119 91 52
Wei-Hsuan Wang 0.02% 5000 4001 126
Wes Heffernan 0.00% 10000 4001 152
Will Chandler 0.11% 909 1501 106
Will Gordon 0.26% 385 301 106
William Mouw 0.18% 556 501 89
Wyndham Clark 1.46% 68 67 59
Yi Cao 0.00% 10000 2501 69

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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