Simulation Results: Canadian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.29%	345	151		29
Aaron Rai	2.22%	45	36		76
Adam Hadwin	0.33%	303	251		40
Adam Schenk	0.05%	2000	751		98
Adam Svensson	0.21%	476	276		60
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.44%	227	226		98
Aldrich Potgieter	0.26%	385	81		8
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	751		40
Alex Fitzpatrick	2.01%	50	36		20
Alex Noren	3.06%	33	36	0.30%	135	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 30/1, 10pl, 1/5
Andrew Putnam	1.44%	69	81	0.20%	112	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ashton McCulloch	0.00%	10000	3001		90
Austin Eckroat	0.56%	179	151		73
Austin Smotherman	0.39%	256	141		98
Beau Hossler	0.54%	185	161		45
Ben James	0.07%	1429	141		54
Ben Martin	0.04%	2500	1251		98
Ben Silverman	0.20%	500	501		54
Billy Horschel	0.35%	286	201		15
Brian Campbell	0.09%	1111	651		112
Brice Garnett	0.13%	769	601		4
Brooks Koepka	1.61%	62	31		75
Bud Cauley	1.36%	74	51		1
Calen Sanderson	0.00%	10000	2001		59
Cam Davis	0.04%	2500	801		127
Camilo Villegas	0.05%	2000	751		112
Chad Ramey	0.33%	303	201		123
Chandler Blanchet	0.30%	333	251		67
Chandler Phillips	0.13%	769	601		15
Charley Hoffman	0.03%	3333	1001		141
Chris Kirk	0.60%	167	141		76
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.48%	68	91	0.40%	54	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.06%	1667	751		127
Collin Morikawa	2.57%	39	26		29
Corey Conners	1.01%	99	71		90
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.36%	278	226		76
Danny Walker	0.11%	909	651		123
Danny Willett	0.19%	526	401		76
David Lipsky	0.19%	526	351		76
David Skinns	0.19%	526	451		20
Davis Chatfield	0.10%	1000	1001		98
Davis Riley	0.06%	1667	751		90
Davis Thompson	1.14%	88	81		45
Dawson Lew	0.00%	10000	2001		127
Declan O'Donovan	0.02%	5000	2501		76
Denny McCarthy	1.06%	94	126	0.30%	60	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Ghim	1.00%	100	91		15
Drew Nesbitt	0.02%	5000	2001		138
Dylan Wu	0.13%	769	501		45
Emiliano Grillo	0.46%	217	181		20
Eric Cole	1.63%	61	41		90
Eric Zhao	0.00%	10000	3001		98
Erik Van Rooyen	0.22%	455	376		20
Garrick Higgo	0.31%	323	176		76
Hank Lebioda	0.11%	909	601		98
Haotong Li	0.51%	196	141		60
Harry Hall	1.68%	60	56		40
Hayden Springer	0.28%	357	276		127
Jackson Suber	0.50%	200	141		4
Jacob Bridgeman	1.62%	62	46		11
Jeevan Sihota	0.00%	10000	3001		123
Jeffrey Kang	0.10%	1000	801
Jesper Svensson	0.30%	333	201		4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.20%	500	251		76
Jimmy Stanger	0.12%	833	601		4
Joe Highsmith	0.05%	2000	1001		70
Joel Dahmen	0.20%	500	401		98
Joey Savoie	0.03%	3333	751		67
John Parry	0.62%	161	251	0.20%	112	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.15%	667	451		144
Johnny Keefer	0.71%	141	81		51
Jordan Smith	1.17%	85	67		112
Justin Lower	0.09%	1111	651		127
Justin Matthews	0.00%	10000	1501		29
Justin Rose	3.07%	33	29		112
Karl Vilips	0.20%	500	301		90
Keita Nakajima	0.50%	200	201		20
Keith Mitchell	1.01%	99	51		29
Kensei Hirata	0.14%	714	601		71
Kevin Roy	0.39%	256	226		71
Kevin Yu	0.50%	200	126		29
Kris Ventura	0.39%	256	201		90
Kristoffer Reitan	1.92%	52	29		60
Lanto Griffin	0.33%	303	301		60
Laurent Desmarchais	0.00%	10000	3001		138
Lee Hodges	0.46%	217	141		98
Lucas Glover	0.49%	204	301	0.20%	112	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Clanton	0.22%	455	276		54
Mac Meissner	1.14%	88	51		112
Mackenzie Hughes	0.61%	164	91		112
Marcelo Rozo	0.05%	2000	1251		98
Mark Hubbard	0.42%	238	301	0.10%			Betfred: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Fitzpatrick	4.40%	23	15		2
Matt Wallace	0.66%	152	91		76
Matthew Anderson	0.02%	5000	1251		11
Matthieu Pavon	0.46%	217	351	0.20%	20	-0.2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid	0.43%	233	126		76
Max Greyserman	0.82%	122	81		90
Max Homa	0.96%	104	91		20
Max McGreevy	0.62%	161	126		51
Michael Brennan	0.90%	111	46		127
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.91%	110	46		54
Mike Weir	0.01%	10000	5001		141
Neal Shipley	0.24%	417	251		51
Nick Dunlap	0.09%	1111	501		135
Nick Taylor	1.60%	63	41		65
Nicolai Hojgaard	2.04%	49	34		112
Padraig Harrington	0.08%	1250	1501		123
Patrick Fishburn	0.35%	286	276		29
Patton Kizzire	0.04%	2500	1251		141
Paul Peterson	0.29%	345	601	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Waring	0.27%	370	351
Peter Malnati	0.12%	833	1001		144
Pontus Nyholm	0.13%	769	451		127
Rafael Campos	0.02%	5000	1501		138
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.69%	145	111		39
Ricky Castillo	0.62%	161	111		45
Rico Hoey	0.97%	103	81		98
Robert MacIntyre	2.07%	48	31		15
Roger Sloan	0.12%	833	751		76
Ryan Fox	1.27%	79	61		8
Sahith Theegala	1.18%	85	67		45
Sam Burns	4.08%	25	15		20
Sam Ryder	0.31%	323	226		45
Seamus Power	0.56%	179	176		76
Sean O'Hair	0.00%	10000	2001		112
Shane Lowry	2.28%	44	36		29
Stephan Jaeger	0.70%	143	101		146
Steven Fisk	1.03%	97	91		127
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.52%	192	71		8
Takumi Kanaya	0.42%	238	351	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	0.67%	149	151		40
Taylor Pendrith	0.99%	101	67		29
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.81%	123	126		90
Tom Hoge	0.30%	333	276		76
Tom Kim	0.85%	118	91		15
Tommy Fleetwood	6.97%	14	13		11
Tony Finau	0.85%	118	71		40
Trace Crowe	0.11%	909	401		98
Viktor Hovland	1.95%	51	36		3
Vince Covello	0.00%	10000	3001		76
Vince Whaley	0.34%	294	301		65
William Mouw	0.42%	238	151		20
Wyndham Clark	2.70%	37	23		11
Yohann Benson	0.00%	10000	5001		135
Zach Bauchou	0.78%	128	101		98
Zecheng Dou	0.26%	385	201		98

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.40%	250	101		73
Aaron Rai	1.14%	88	46		73
Adam Hadwin	0.69%	145	126		73
Adam Schenk	0.36%	278	251		32
Adam Svensson	0.31%	323	141		7
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.81%	123	126		120
Aldrich Potgieter	0.63%	159	71		19
Alejandro Tosti	0.25%	400	201		19
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.67%	60	46		55
Alex Noren	2.14%	47	46		98
Andrew Putnam	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	142	-0.1	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashton McCulloch	0.01%	10000	451		98
Austin Eckroat	0.97%	103	101		32
Austin Smotherman	0.44%	227	101		120
Beau Hossler	0.56%	179	126		55
Ben James	0.35%	286	111		32
Ben Martin	0.32%	313	351		136
Ben Silverman	0.34%	294	181		55
Billy Horschel	0.47%	213	126		19
Brian Campbell	0.46%	217	201		133
Brice Garnett	0.31%	323	201		7
Brooks Koepka	1.51%	66	46		1
Bud Cauley	0.86%	116	56		73
Calen Sanderson	0.05%	2000	401		98
Cam Davis	0.31%	323	251		55
Camilo Villegas	0.21%	476	201		55
Chad Ramey	0.76%	132	126		98
Chandler Blanchet	0.62%	161	141		7
Chandler Phillips	0.47%	213	201		32
Charley Hoffman	0.13%	769	251		146
Chris Kirk	0.54%	185	101		120
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.50%	67	76	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.33%	303	201		73
Collin Morikawa	1.23%	81	41		98
Corey Conners	0.78%	128	71		120
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.45%	222	126		32
Danny Walker	0.24%	417	201		142
Danny Willett	0.34%	294	151		19
David Lipsky	0.58%	172	151		73
David Skinns	0.33%	303	181		7
Davis Chatfield	0.43%	233	276	0.10%	98	-0.1	Betway: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Riley	0.34%	294	251		19
Davis Thompson	0.78%	128	76		55
Dawson Lew	0.03%	3333	401		98
Declan O'Donovan	0.20%	500	351		98
Denny McCarthy	0.75%	133	81		73
Doug Ghim	1.27%	79	81		7
Drew Nesbitt	0.21%	476	401		98
Dylan Wu	0.29%	345	181		55
Emiliano Grillo	0.78%	128	111		1
Eric Cole	1.64%	61	51		1
Eric Zhao	0.02%	5000	451		55
Erik Van Rooyen	0.64%	156	151		7
Garrick Higgo	0.46%	217	126		32
Hank Lebioda	0.29%	345	181		98
Haotong Li	0.92%	109	81		32
Harry Hall	1.53%	65	67		19
Hayden Springer	0.37%	270	141		120
Jackson Suber	0.92%	109	91		19
Jacob Bridgeman	0.97%	103	56		98
Jeevan Sihota	0.04%	2500	451		120
Jeffrey Kang	0.42%	238	251
Jesper Svensson	0.73%	137	111		19
Jhonattan Vegas	0.58%	172	141		32
Jimmy Stanger	0.24%	417	181		7
Joe Highsmith	0.15%	667	251		98
Joel Dahmen	0.58%	172	181		136
Joey Savoie	0.15%	667	201		73
John Parry	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	120	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.50%	200	181		136
Johnny Keefer	1.11%	90	71		19
Jordan Smith	1.30%	77	76		98
Justin Lower	0.23%	435	201		120
Justin Matthews	0.12%	833	351		32
Justin Rose	1.35%	74	46		98
Karl Vilips	0.32%	313	141		73
Keita Nakajima	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	120	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keith Mitchell	0.75%	133	61		32
Kensei Hirata	0.27%	370	201		73
Kevin Roy	0.47%	213	126		98
Kevin Yu	0.86%	116	91		73
Kris Ventura	0.45%	222	126		73
Kristoffer Reitan	1.65%	61	46		55
Lanto Griffin	0.48%	208	151		55
Laurent Desmarchais	0.02%	5000	451		120
Lee Hodges	0.49%	204	101		133
Lucas Glover	0.52%	192	126		73
Luke Clanton	0.36%	278	141		73
Mac Meissner	0.78%	128	67		73
Mackenzie Hughes	1.00%	100	71		73
Marcelo Rozo	0.31%	323	251		98
Mark Hubbard	0.82%	122	126
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.63%	61	29		32
Matt Wallace	0.62%	161	81		19
Matthew Anderson	0.30%	333	251		1
Matthieu Pavon	0.50%	200	151		32
Matti Schmid	0.46%	217	101		32
Max Greyserman	0.70%	143	67		73
Max Homa	1.25%	80	81		55
Max McGreevy	0.62%	161	101		19
Michael Brennan	0.69%	145	51		98
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.10%	91	56		73
Mike Weir	0.17%	588	501		98
Neal Shipley	0.58%	172	141		55
Nick Dunlap	0.45%	222	201		145
Nick Taylor	1.52%	66	51		32
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.68%	60	46		73
Padraig Harrington	0.39%	256	276		136
Patrick Fishburn	0.73%	137	141		7
Patton Kizzire	0.32%	313	301		98
Paul Peterson	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Waring	0.42%	238	151
Peter Malnati	0.26%	385	251		73
Pontus Nyholm	0.25%	400	181		136
Rafael Campos	0.12%	833	351		120
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.97%	103	91		73
Ricky Castillo	0.59%	169	81		7
Rico Hoey	1.16%	86	76		32
Robert MacIntyre	1.69%	59	46		55
Roger Sloan	0.25%	400	201		55
Ryan Fox	1.35%	74	67		19
Sahith Theegala	0.81%	123	67		1
Sam Burns	2.54%	39	34		1
Sam Ryder	0.43%	233	126		7
Seamus Power	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	120	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean O'Hair	0.13%	769	401		98
Shane Lowry	1.88%	53	51		7
Stephan Jaeger	0.62%	161	81		136
Steven Fisk	1.24%	81	81		73
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.52%	192	71		73
Takumi Kanaya	0.45%	222	151		55
Taylor Moore	0.53%	189	91		32
Taylor Pendrith	0.68%	147	76		19
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.65%	154	81		120
Tom Hoge	0.66%	152	126		98
Tom Kim	1.09%	92	76		32
Tommy Fleetwood	2.21%	45	26		32
Tony Finau	0.65%	154	71		7
Trace Crowe	0.41%	244	181		32
Viktor Hovland	1.04%	96	46		55
Vince Covello	0.12%	833	451		73
Vince Whaley	0.71%	141	141		32
William Mouw	0.45%	222	101		55
Wyndham Clark	2.06%	49	36		55
Yohann Benson	0.03%	3333	501		142
Zach Bauchou	0.60%	167	81		73
Zecheng Dou	0.39%	256	131		133

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.48%	68	91	0.40%	54	-2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Alex Noren	3.06%	33	36	0.30%	135	-2	Ladbrokes: 30/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Denny McCarthy	1.06%	94	126	0.30%	60	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.50%	67	76	0.20%	32	-1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: John Parry	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	120	-1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Andrew Putnam	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	142	-1	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Keita Nakajima	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	120	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Seamus Power	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	120	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paul Peterson	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	32	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.