Simulation Results: Cadillac Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	2.06%	49	36		4
Akshay Bhatia	1.46%	68	51		23
Aldrich Potgieter	0.16%	625	111		14
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.55%	182	161		9
Alex Noren	1.23%	81	86	0.10%	7	0.65	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 8pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley	0.72%	139	81		7
Andrew Novak	0.42%	238	126		65
Andrew Putnam	0.64%	156	351	0.40%	18	-0.4	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman	0.30%	333	226		60
Ben Griffin	1.61%	62	61		3
Brian Campbell	0.08%	1250	1501		49
Brian Harman	0.79%	127	161	0.20%	38	-0.2	BetGoodwin: 150/1, 8pl, 1/5
Bud Cauley	0.60%	167	131		38
Cameron Young	4.36%	23	12		1
Chandler Blanchet	0.22%	455	351		72
Chris Gotterup	1.80%	56	23		38
Collin Morikawa	4.41%	23	21		62
Corey Conners	1.11%	90	86		30
Daniel Berger	0.60%	167	96		23
David Lipsky	0.16%	625	501		71
Denny McCarthy	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	30	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Woodland	1.06%	94	51		38
Harris English	2.54%	39	46	0.40%	55	-0.4	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Hall	0.87%	115	91		30
Hideki Matsuyama	2.38%	42	34		53
J.J. Spaun	1.44%	69	56		14
J.T. Poston	0.65%	154	151		49
Jacob Bridgeman	1.41%	71	46		65
Jake Knapp	1.70%	59	29
Jason Day	1.75%	57	67	0.30%	38	-0.3	BetGoodwin: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jhonattan Vegas	0.17%	588	401		60
Joel Dahmen	0.12%	833	451		62
Jordan Smith	0.68%	147	96		55
Jordan Spieth	2.10%	48	56	0.30%	18	-0.3	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Rose	1.61%	62	36		65
Justin Thomas	0.80%	125	67		23
Keegan Bradley	1.80%	56	61	0.20%	49	-0.2	BetGoodwin: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Keith Mitchell	0.63%	159	71		55
Kurt Kitayama	1.20%	83	41		9
Lucas Glover	0.28%	357	501	0.10%	14	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt McCarty	0.70%	143	96		9
Matt Wallace	0.59%	169	151		23
Maverick McNealy	1.95%	51	34		30
Max Greyserman	0.26%	385	181		38
Max Homa	0.58%	172	131		38
Michael Kim	0.53%	189	161		18
Min Woo Lee	1.37%	73	29		18
Nick Taylor	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	9	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria	0.18%	556	351		55
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.20%	83	46		23
Patrick Cantlay	3.16%	32	29
Patrick Rodgers	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	65	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierceson Coody	0.53%	189	67		38
Rickie Fowler	2.29%	44	51	0.30%	9	-0.3	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricky Castillo	0.47%	213	101		55
Russell Henley	4.42%	23	29	1.00%	49	-1	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.69%	145	111		30
Ryan Gerard	0.54%	185	71		30
Ryo Hisatsune	0.54%	185	76		65
Sahith Theegala	0.89%	112	71		30
Sam Burns	3.20%	31	29		38
Sam Stevens	0.69%	145	76		18
Scottie Scheffler	13.54%	7.4	4.33		2
Sepp Straka	1.34%	75	56		4
Shane Lowry	1.48%	68	61		23
Si Woo Kim	2.87%	35	29		4
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.48%	208	101		30
Sungjae Im	0.41%	244	141		65
Taylor Pendrith	0.45%	222	111		38
Tom Hoge	0.18%	556	601		62
Tommy Fleetwood	3.55%	28	26		23
Viktor Hovland	2.33%	43	36		38

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	2.08%	48	36		66
Akshay Bhatia	1.63%	61	41		15
Aldrich Potgieter	0.34%	294	81		9
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.77%	130	86		37
Alex Noren	1.36%	74	61		52
Alex Smalley	0.96%	104	67		2
Andrew Novak	0.71%	141	81		27
Andrew Putnam	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	6	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman	0.48%	208	91		70
Ben Griffin	1.67%	60	51		15
Brian Campbell	0.21%	476	201		15
Brian Harman	1.00%	100	81		6
Bud Cauley	0.82%	122	71		9
Cameron Young	3.48%	29	21		1
Chandler Blanchet	0.44%	227	126		60
Chris Gotterup	1.81%	55	36		48
Collin Morikawa	3.49%	29	29		60
Corey Conners	1.37%	73	71		48
Daniel Berger	0.87%	115	67		66
David Lipsky	0.39%	256	126		27
Denny McCarthy	0.91%	110	81		27
Gary Woodland	1.27%	79	41		6
Harris English	2.35%	43	41		52
Harry Hall	1.12%	89	67		27
Hideki Matsuyama	2.27%	44	36		15
J.J. Spaun	1.56%	64	46		37
J.T. Poston	0.99%	101	91		27
Jacob Bridgeman	1.53%	65	41		72
Jake Knapp	1.81%	55	34
Jason Day	1.82%	55	56		70
Jhonattan Vegas	0.36%	278	126		60
Joel Dahmen	0.29%	345	126		60
Jordan Smith	0.88%	114	81		48
Jordan Spieth	2.09%	48	46		2
Justin Rose	1.67%	60	36		52
Justin Thomas	1.08%	93	51		15
Keegan Bradley	1.77%	56	56		37
Keith Mitchell	0.88%	114	61		52
Kurt Kitayama	1.39%	72	46		66
Lucas Glover	0.49%	204	151		37
Matt McCarty	0.96%	104	71		9
Matt Wallace	0.76%	132	81		52
Maverick McNealy	1.88%	53	34		27
Max Greyserman	0.52%	192	91		37
Max Homa	0.88%	114	81		15
Michael Kim	0.80%	125	91		52
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.02%	98	46		52
Min Woo Lee	1.54%	65	34		15
Nick Taylor	1.11%	90	86		4
Nico Echavarria	0.41%	244	126		5
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.43%	70	46		60
Patrick Rodgers	0.86%	116	81		27
Pierceson Coody	0.77%	130	61		37
Rickie Fowler	2.12%	47	51		9
Ricky Castillo	0.77%	130	81		48
Russell Henley	3.45%	29	34	0.50%	37	-0.5	Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	1.04%	96	71		37
Ryan Gerard	0.88%	114	61		37
Ryo Hisatsune	0.80%	125	61		37
Sahith Theegala	1.10%	91	51		9
Sam Burns	2.76%	36	36		66
Sam Stevens	0.85%	118	71		27
Scottie Scheffler	8.32%	12	11		27
Sepp Straka	1.60%	63	51		15
Shane Lowry	1.62%	62	56		37
Si Woo Kim	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	15	-0.2	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.77%	130	67		52
Sungjae Im	0.69%	145	71		15
Taylor Pendrith	0.74%	135	81		27
Tom Hoge	0.38%	263	126		9
Tommy Fleetwood	3.05%	33	36	0.30%	15	-0.3	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Viktor Hovland	2.16%	46	41		60

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Russell Henley	4.42%	23	29	1.00%	49	-2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Harris English	2.54%	39	46	0.40%	55	-2	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Andrew Putnam	0.64%	156	351	0.40%	18	-2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Russell Henley	3.45%	29	34	0.50%	37	-1	Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	3.05%	33	36	0.30%	15	-1	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Si Woo Kim	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	15	-1	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Rickie Fowler	2.12%	47	51		9
FRL: Andrew Putnam	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	6	-1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.