Simulation Results: CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.21%	476	351		19
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	1501		96
Adam Hadwin	0.43%	233	351	0.10%	118	-0.1	Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Headley	0.00%	10000	2001		145
Adam Schenk	0.13%	769	501		124
Adam Svensson	0.26%	385	276		54
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.84%	119	91		96
Adrien Saddier	0.27%	370	301		40
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	601		96
Alex Huang	0.00%	10000	4001		144
Austin Cook	0.02%	5000	2001		137
Austin Eckroat	1.15%	87	61		40
Beau Hossler	0.94%	106	91		96
Ben Kohles	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	124	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ben Martin	0.13%	769	801		96
Ben Silverman	0.17%	588	651		17
Billy Horschel	0.43%	233	226		96
Blades Brown	0.87%	115	67		14
Brice Garnett	0.21%	476	501		133
Brooks Koepka	2.03%	49	23		14
Cam Davis	0.06%	1667	1001		111
Cameron Champ	0.25%	400	351		147
Camilo Villegas	0.07%	1429	1501		40
Carson Young	0.45%	222	181		71
Chad Ramey	0.41%	244	176		59
Chan Kim	0.28%	357	401		38
Chandler Blanchet	0.36%	278	151		124
Chandler Phillips	0.30%	333	351		96
Charley Hoffman	0.02%	5000	801		54
Chris Kirk	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.25%	44	76	0.90%	71	-0.9	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.12%	833	401		133
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.43%	233	201		47
Danny Walker	0.16%	625	401		118
Danny Willett	0.10%	1000	1001		70
David Ford	0.31%	323	226
David Skinns	0.35%	286	276		96
Davis Chatfield	0.14%	714	1001		82
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	401		111
Davis Thompson	1.70%	59	41		124
Doug Ghim	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	31	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Dylan Wu	0.15%	667	501		96
Emiliano Grillo	0.51%	196	201		38
Eric Cole	1.34%	75	67		31
Erik Van Rooyen	0.39%	256	226		19
Garrick Higgo	0.31%	323	226		19
Gordon Sargent	0.10%	1000	601		141
Greg Gregory	0.00%	10000	4001		143
Hank Lebioda	0.22%	455	351		62
Haotong Li	0.85%	118	76		71
Harry Higgs	0.13%	769	751		118
Hayden Springer	0.44%	227	176		71
Henrik Norlander	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	137	-0.1	Betfred: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Buchanan	0.04%	2500	2001		71
Jackson Suber	0.45%	222	226		4
James Hahn	0.01%	10000	1501		132
Jeffrey Kang	0.11%	909	901		54
Jeremy Paul	0.08%	1250	1501		82
Jesper Svensson	0.24%	417	251		9
Jhonattan Vegas	0.54%	185	126		118
Jimmy Stanger	0.19%	526	401		124
Joe Highsmith	0.13%	769	501		140
Joel Dahmen	0.18%	556	351		118
John Parry	1.25%	80	111	0.40%	47	-0.4	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.22%	455	351		67
Johnny Keefer	0.65%	154	111		9
Jonathan Byrd	0.05%	2000	1001		59
Jordan Smith	1.20%	83	71		59
Jordan Spieth	4.09%	24	17		19
Justin Lower	0.13%	769	501		47
Karl Vilips	0.45%	222	111		82
Keita Nakajima	0.39%	256	201		96
Keith Mitchell	1.33%	75	41		5
Kensei Hirata	0.11%	909	601		19
Kevin Roy	1.13%	88	86		137
Kevin Streelman	0.13%	769	601		124
Kevin Yu	0.59%	169	111		82
Kris Ventura	0.47%	213	141		82
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.01%	10000	601		96
Lanto Griffin	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Hodges	0.56%	179	141		82
Luke Clanton	0.14%	714	501		31
Luke List	0.08%	1250	601		40
Mac Meissner	1.50%	67	67		31
Mackenzie Hughes	0.62%	161	126		66
Marcelo Rozo	0.06%	1667	2001		96
Mark Hubbard	0.66%	152	131		31
Martin Laird	0.17%	588	1251	0.10%	111	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Howell	0.01%	10000	1001		82
Matt Kuchar	0.66%	152	226	0.20%	111	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matthieu Pavon	0.32%	313	351		40
Matti Schmid	0.87%	115	81		96
Max Greyserman	1.17%	85	67		9
Max McGreevy	0.83%	120	91		82
Michael Brennan	0.70%	143	71		71
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.15%	87	41		71
Nathan Petronzio	0.04%	2500	2501		146
Neal Shipley	0.24%	417	351		40
Nick Dunlap	0.14%	714	301		82
Nick Hardy	0.19%	526	1001	0.10%	71	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Noah Goodwin	0.17%	588	501		82
Patrick Fishburn	0.37%	270	276		47
Patrick Rodgers	1.11%	90	101	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire	0.09%	1111	751		82
Paul Peterson	0.41%	244	501	0.20%	96	-0.2	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Malnati	0.13%	769	751		19
Pierceson Coody	1.49%	67	41		19
Pontus Nyholm	0.27%	370	276		124
Preston Stout	0.13%	769	141		136
Rafael Campos	0.04%	2500	2001		133
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.69%	59	56		62
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.70%	143	111		19
Rico Hoey	1.03%	97	71		19
Robert Streb	0.01%	10000	4001		71
Ronin Banerjee	0.00%	10000	2501		96
Ryan Brehm	0.04%	2500	2001		111
Ryan Palmer	0.01%	10000	5001		141
Ryo Hisatsune	1.50%	67	41		19
Sam Ryder	0.54%	185	161		31
Scott Piercy	0.03%	3333	1501		71
Scottie Scheffler	21.54%	4.6	2.88		3
Seamus Power	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	19	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh	0.12%	833	601		18
Si Woo Kim	4.78%	21	14		2
Stephan Jaeger	1.11%	90	67		9
Steven Fisk	0.81%	123	131		19
Sungjae Im	1.12%	89	56		9
Takumi Kanaya	0.54%	185	226	0.10%	124	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Montgomery	0.20%	500	351		118
Taylor Moore	0.70%	143	111		14
Taylor Pendrith	1.54%	65	41		47
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	62	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Hoge	0.44%	227	226		6
Tom Kim	1.22%	82	67		54
Tony Finau	0.57%	175	111		6
Trace Crowe	0.33%	303	176		111
Troy Merritt	0.06%	1667	1001		54
Tyler Duncan	0.11%	909	1001		40
Vince Whaley	0.60%	167	176		82
Will Gordon	0.13%	769	501		82
William Mouw	0.61%	164	131		111
William Sides	0.00%	10000	501		82
Wyndham Clark	1.32%	76	51		1
Yongjun Bae	0.06%	1667	1251		62
Zac Blair	0.69%	145	176	0.10%	69	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zach Bauchou	0.58%	172	151		6
Zecheng Dou	0.66%	152	91		71

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.47%	213	151		16
Aaron Wise	0.20%	500	301		92
Adam Hadwin	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	136	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Headley	0.00%	10000	501		142
Adam Schenk	0.42%	238	151		136
Adam Svensson	0.52%	192	141		47
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.80%	125	71		92
Adrien Saddier	0.63%	159	151		16
Alejandro Tosti	0.20%	500	181		92
Alex Huang	0.01%	10000	501		142
Austin Cook	0.10%	1000	401		142
Austin Eckroat	0.91%	110	71		11
Beau Hossler	0.89%	112	86		16
Ben Kohles	0.82%	122	101		127
Ben Martin	0.34%	294	226		74
Ben Silverman	0.42%	238	201		47
Billy Horschel	0.60%	167	101		92
Blades Brown	1.09%	92	67		16
Brice Garnett	0.46%	217	181		116
Brooks Koepka	1.61%	62	46		2
Cam Davis	0.30%	333	251		132
Cameron Champ	0.56%	179	141		132
Camilo Villegas	0.24%	417	276		32
Carson Young	0.79%	127	126		92
Chad Ramey	0.74%	135	101		32
Chan Kim	0.47%	213	151		16
Chandler Blanchet	0.70%	143	126		92
Chandler Phillips	0.60%	167	151		74
Charley Hoffman	0.19%	526	226		47
Chris Kirk	0.94%	106	81		32
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	47	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.45%	222	151		116
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.61%	164	126		74
Danny Walker	0.34%	294	151		116
Danny Willett	0.31%	323	251		74
David Skinns	0.57%	175	141		74
Davis Chatfield	0.35%	286	251		47
Davis Riley	0.35%	286	151		92
Davis Thompson	1.27%	79	56		74
Doug Ghim	1.34%	75	71		11
Dylan Wu	0.39%	256	201		74
Emiliano Grillo	0.78%	128	126		4
Eric Cole	1.31%	76	67		47
Erik Van Rooyen	0.71%	141	101		16
Fabian Gomez	0.33%	303	251		32
Garrick Higgo	0.48%	208	111		74
Gordon Sargent	0.31%	323	226		127
Greg Gregory	0.01%	10000	501		136
Hank Lebioda	0.43%	233	176		11
Haotong Li	1.06%	94	67		47
Harry Higgs	0.35%	286	226		92
Hayden Springer	0.75%	133	101		92
Henrik Norlander	0.50%	200	181		136
Jackson Buchanan	0.23%	435	351		74
Jackson Suber	0.74%	135	126		47
James Hahn	0.14%	714	401		124
Jeffrey Kang	0.40%	250	226		47
Jeremy Paul	0.36%	278	351	0.10%	74	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jesper Svensson	0.44%	227	141		2
Jhonattan Vegas	0.82%	122	91		132
Jimmy Stanger	0.39%	256	151		132
Joe Highsmith	0.39%	256	201		124
Joel Dahmen	0.46%	217	151		92
John Parry	0.99%	101	86		47
John VanDerLaan	0.45%	222	176		32
Johnny Keefer	0.96%	104	81		16
Jonathan Byrd	0.30%	333	251		32
Jordan Smith	1.17%	85	71		32
Jordan Spieth	1.87%	53	36		47
Justin Lower	0.42%	238	181		47
Karl Vilips	0.73%	137	91		92
Keita Nakajima	0.58%	172	126		92
Keith Mitchell	1.22%	82	51		4
Kensei Hirata	0.29%	345	226		4
Kevin Roy	1.13%	88	71		136
Kevin Streelman	0.39%	256	226		142
Kevin Yu	0.85%	118	91		74
Kris Ventura	0.62%	161	101		124
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.17%	588	226		74
Lanto Griffin	0.65%	154	151		11
Lee Hodges	0.67%	149	91		92
Luke Clanton	0.40%	250	176		16
Luke List	0.27%	370	201		16
Mac Meissner	1.09%	92	67		47
Mackenzie Hughes	0.88%	114	101		11
Marcelo Rozo	0.32%	313	301		92
Mark Hubbard	0.95%	105	91		16
Martin Laird	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	92	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Howell	0.12%	833	251		47
Matt Kuchar	0.75%	133	141		74
Matthieu Pavon	0.55%	182	141		32
Matti Schmid	0.86%	116	71		92
Max Greyserman	1.04%	96	67		116
Max McGreevy	0.83%	120	81		47
Michael Brennan	0.96%	104	67		47
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.18%	85	51		4
Nathan Petronzio	0.21%	476	351		147
Neal Shipley	0.57%	175	151		16
Nick Dunlap	0.42%	238	151		127
Nick Hardy	0.44%	227	251		74
Noah Goodwin	0.49%	204	201		74
Patrick Fishburn	0.58%	172	176		16
Patrick Rodgers	1.13%	88	81		47
Patton Kizzire	0.27%	370	226		47
Paul Peterson	0.59%	169	176		92
Peter Malnati	0.34%	294	251		74
Pierceson Coody	1.17%	85	56		47
Pontus Nyholm	0.59%	169	141		47
Preston Stout	0.38%	263	91		74
Rafael Campos	0.22%	455	401		136
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.45%	69	56		92
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.98%	102	81		16
Rico Hoey	1.08%	93	67		32
Robert Streb	0.15%	667	501		92
Ronin Banerjee	0.00%	10000	401		116
Ryan Brehm	0.20%	500	401		92
Ryan Palmer	0.11%	909	401		146
Ryo Hisatsune	1.07%	93	51		32
Sam Ryder	0.64%	156	101		47
Scott Piercy	0.21%	476	401		116
Scottie Scheffler	5.95%	17	11		16
Seamus Power	1.02%	98	91		16
Seung-Yul Noh	0.42%	238	176		32
Si Woo Kim	2.57%	39	34		4
Stephan Jaeger	1.21%	83	67		4
Steven Fisk	0.99%	101	101		74
Sungjae Im	0.97%	103	67		47
Takumi Kanaya	0.70%	143	111		92
Taylor Montgomery	0.41%	244	151		116
Taylor Moore	0.73%	137	91		1
Taylor Pendrith	1.13%	88	56		32
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.15%	87	86		116
Tom Hoge	0.78%	128	111		47
Tom Kim	1.22%	82	67		47
Tony Finau	0.84%	119	91		32
Trace Crowe	0.53%	189	126		92
Troy Merritt	0.24%	417	251		32
Tyler Duncan	0.32%	313	251		4
Vince Whaley	0.91%	110	101		47
Will Gordon	0.34%	294	201		92
William Mouw	0.75%	133	81		127
William Sides	0.00%	10000	201		127
Wyndham Clark	1.26%	79	56		16
Yongjun Bae	0.24%	417	301		47
Zac Blair	0.91%	110	101		92
Zach Bauchou	0.68%	147	101		32
Zecheng Dou	0.69%	145	86		47

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2.25%	44	76	0.90%	71	-2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: John Parry	1.25%	80	111	0.40%	47	-2	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Matt Kuchar	0.66%	152	226	0.20%	111	-2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	47	-1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Adam Hadwin	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	136	-1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Martin Laird	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	92	-1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jeremy Paul	0.36%	278	351	0.10%	74	-1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.