Simulation Results: CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.07% 1429 1001 90
Adam Schenk 0.25% 400 301 5
Adam Svensson 0.44% 227 176 90
Aldrich Potgieter 0.11% 909 226 121
Alejandro Tosti 0.44% 227 81 67
Alex Smalley 1.00% 100 81 39
Anders Albertson 0.03% 3333 2001 129
Andrew Putnam 0.92% 109 181 0.40% 15 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.32% 313 226 13
Austin Eckroat 1.18% 85 81 101
Beau Hossler 0.60% 167 151 65
Ben Griffin 1.92% 52 51 71
Ben Kohles 0.28% 357 301 52
Ben Martin 0.46% 217 326 0.20% 33 -0.2 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman 0.30% 333 451 0.10% 129 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bobby Massa 0.00% 10000 2501 121
Braden Thornberry 0.08% 1250 751 112
Brandon Matthews 0.00% 10000 5001 64
Brian Campbell 0.48% 208 201 112
Brice Garnett 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 71 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Byeong Hun An 2.31% 43 29 60
Cam Davis 0.49% 204 101 60
Camilo Villegas 0.10% 1000 1001 67
Carson Young 0.34% 294 226 90
Chad Ramey 0.36% 278 176 129
Chan Kim 0.85% 118 101 139
Chandler Phillips 0.58% 172 226 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Charley Hoffman 0.65% 154 141 90
Chesson Hadley 0.04% 2500 751 90
Chez Reavie 0.07% 1429 751 134
Chris Gotterup 0.63% 159 126 15
Christo Lamprecht 0.16% 625 301 148
Cristobal Del Solar 0.05% 2000 1501 71
Danny Walker 0.29% 345 201 25
David Lipsky 0.19% 526 501 112
David Skinns 0.15% 667 501 52
Davis Riley 0.43% 233 81 45
Doug Ghim 0.66% 152 101 33
Dylan Wu 0.33% 303 251 101
Emiliano Grillo 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 90 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Eric Cole 0.93% 108 81 5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.32% 313 226 2
Francesco Molinari 0.17% 588 601 101
Frankie Capan 0.12% 833 501 129
Gabe Reynolds 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Gary Woodland 1.06% 94 101 0.10% Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Greyson Sigg 0.25% 400 201 121
Harrison Endycott 0.09% 1111 1001 139
Harry Hall 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 33 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Harry Higgs 0.11% 909 601 139
Hayden Buckley 0.09% 1111 751 121
Hayden Springer 0.41% 244 151 112
Henrik Norlander 0.77% 130 101 45
Isaiah Salinda 0.52% 192 91 56
Jackson Suber 0.10% 1000 501 139
Jacob Bridgeman 1.10% 91 51 112
Jake Knapp 0.50% 200 56 39
Jeremy Paul 0.40% 250 226 101
Jesper Svensson 0.59% 169 101 112
Jhonattan Vegas 0.46% 217 201 13
Joel Dahmen 0.61% 164 111 71
John Pak 0.11% 909 751 70
Jordan Spieth 3.08% 32 19 4
Joseph Bramlett 0.59% 169 226 0.10% 39 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Lower 0.71% 141 161 0.10% 71 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kaito Onishi 0.13% 769 1001 71
Karl Vilips 0.25% 400 131 49
Kevin Kisner 0.02% 5000 2001 121
Kevin Roy 0.27% 370 226 15
Kevin Tway 0.18% 556 501 90
Kevin Velo 0.09% 1111 751 101
Kevin Yu 0.70% 143 91 29
Kris Kim 0.00% 10000 2001 154
Kris Ventura 0.26% 385 301 101
Kurt Kitayama 0.69% 145 101 5
Lanto Griffin 0.21% 476 376 90
Lee Hodges 0.96% 104 101 90
Luke List 0.30% 333 301 90
Mac Meissner 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 65 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Mackenzie Hughes 2.36% 42 46 0.20% 71 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Mark Hubbard 0.47% 213 176 5
Martin Laird 0.17% 588 601 71
Mason Andersen 0.07% 1429 1001 139
Matt Kuchar 1.50% 67 131 0.70% 56 -0.7 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty 0.75% 133 101 15
Matt NeSmith 0.23% 435 401 139
Matt Wallace 1.11% 90 71 156
Matteo Manassero 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 45 -0.1 William Hill: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matthew Riedel 0.05% 2000 1001 148
Matti Schmid 0.56% 179 131 112
Max McGreevy 0.37% 270 126 15
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.88% 114 81 33
Nate Lashley 0.35% 286 326 39
Nelson Ledesma 0.10% 1000 1001 148
Nick Hardy 0.19% 526 401 71
Nick Watney 0.03% 3333 2001 71
Nico Echavarria 0.46% 217 111 25
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.60% 167 67 56
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.45% 222 151 33
Noah Goodwin 0.24% 417 501 139
Noah Kent 0.00% 10000 1501 153
Norman Xiong 0.22% 455 1001 0.10% 71 -0.1 Skybet: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn 0.82% 122 131 0.10% 71 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 15 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patton Kizzire 0.12% 833 501 49
Paul Peterson 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 101 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 750/1, 10pl, 1/5
Paul Waring 0.09% 1111 1501 71
Peter Malnati 0.05% 2000 1001 155
Philip Knowles 0.02% 5000 3001 134
Pierceson Coody 0.46% 217 176 25
Quade Cummins 0.47% 213 201 101
Rafael Campos 0.10% 1000 1001 67
Rasmus Hojgaard 1.11% 90 51 48
Ricky Castillo 0.38% 263 161 5
Rico Hoey 1.12% 89 81 52
Rikuya Hoshino 0.29% 345 301 39
Ross Steelman 0.05% 2000 1001 25
Ryan Fox 0.70% 143 131 60
Ryan Gerard 0.91% 110 61 71
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 2501 101
Ryo Hisatsune 0.95% 105 67 121
Sam Burns 2.70% 37 31 5
Sam Ryder 0.59% 169 131 71
Sam Stevens 0.88% 114 86 3
Sami Valimaki 0.56% 179 101 39
Scott Gutschewski 0.04% 2500 2501 101
Scottie Scheffler 17.26% 5.8 4 1
Seamus Power 1.78% 56 76 0.50% 90 -0.5 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Seungbin Choi 0.00% 10000 4001 147
Si Woo Kim 1.81% 55 34 15
Stephan Jaeger 1.71% 58 46 56
Sung Kang 0.01% 10000 2501 134
Sungjae Im 3.45% 29 26 33
Takumi Kanaya 0.34% 294 201 5
Taylor Dickson 0.10% 1000 751 29
Taylor Montgomery 0.11% 909 401 101
Taylor Moore 0.76% 132 71 139
Taylor Pendrith 1.96% 51 34 71
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.16% 625 251 52
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.39% 72 101 0.40% 29 -0.4 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim Widing 0.08% 1250 601 121
Tom Kim 1.30% 77 56 71
Tommy Morrison 0.62% 161 601 0.50% 134 -0.5 Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trace Crowe 0.24% 417 276 71
Trevor Cone 0.05% 2000 1001 71
Trey Mullinax 0.29% 345 276 29
Victor Perez 0.78% 128 131 60
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 5001 148
Vince Whaley 0.51% 196 126 15
Webb Simpson 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 49 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Chandler 0.06% 1667 1001 112
Will Gordon 0.12% 833 601 5
Will Zalatoris 1.46% 68 51
William Mouw 0.24% 417 301 112
Zac Blair 0.25% 400 376 134
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 131 129

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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