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Simulation Results: Bermuda Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Hadwin 0.56% 179 131 11
Adam Schenk 0.37% 270 126 1
Adam Svensson 0.57% 175 101 83
Alex Smalley 1.41% 71 46 3
Andrew Putnam 1.48% 68 81 0.20% 67 -0.2 BetGoodwin: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Andrew Zielinski 0.00% 10000 3001 105
Antoine Rozner 0.68% 147 111 58
Austin Cook 0.04% 2500 601 102
Beau Hossler 1.40% 71 41 99
Ben Kohles 0.85% 118 101 61
Ben Martin 0.15% 667 226 83
Ben Silverman 1.36% 74 67 99
Blades Brown 0.11% 909 176 34
Braden Thornberry 0.04% 2500 551 22
Brandt Snedeker 0.58% 172 126 42
Cameron Champ 0.38% 263 86 114
Camilo Villegas 0.02% 5000 501 9
Carson Young 0.78% 128 71 55
Chad Ramey 2.18% 46 36 118
Chan Kim 0.27% 370 151 22
Chandler Phillips 0.60% 167 111 2
Chase Johnson 0.00% 10000 1251 112
Cristobal Del Solar 0.02% 5000 501 89
Danny Walker 0.09% 1111 201 105
Danny Willett 0.08% 1250 326 60
David Ford 0.30% 333 91 89
David Lipsky 0.57% 175 81 71
David Skinns 0.55% 182 126 67
Doug Ghim 1.45% 69 67 13
Drew Doyle 0.00% 10000 2001 119
Dylan Wu 0.27% 370 131 18
Eric Cole 2.67% 37 36 89
Francesco Molinari 0.50% 200 176 34
Frankie Capan 0.04% 2500 301 3
Gordon Sargent 0.13% 769 276
Greyson Sigg 1.11% 90 56 46
Harrison Endycott 0.04% 2500 501 52
Harry Higgs 0.15% 667 176 29
Hayden Buckley 0.11% 909 251 105
Hayden Springer 0.82% 122 76 22
Henrik Norlander 0.23% 435 226 83
Henry Smart 0.00% 10000 5001 114
Hunter Wolcott 0.01% 10000 1501 61
Isaiah Salinda 0.40% 250 86 18
Jackson Suber 1.12% 89 61 71
Jake Peacock 0.00% 10000 751 71
Jeremy Paul 0.87% 115 96 46
Jesper Svensson 0.89% 112 56 14
John Pak 0.22% 455 176 46
Jonathan Byrd 0.05% 2000 401 14
Joseph Bramlett 0.34% 294 101 71
Justin Hastings 0.01% 10000 326 22
Justin Lower 1.10% 91 56 89
Kaito Onishi 0.03% 3333 601 67
Kenny Leseur 0.00% 10000 3001 89
Kevin Roy 1.22% 82 76 34
Kevin Streelman 0.07% 1429 401 61
Kevin Velo 0.05% 2000 451 55
Kevin Yu 3.51% 28 26 71
Kris Ventura 1.79% 56 61 0.20% 34 -0.2 BetGoodwin: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
Lanto Griffin 0.38% 263 91 89
Lee Hodges 1.61% 62 71 0.20% 61 -0.2 Skybet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Clanton 1.93% 52 51 89
Luke List 0.20% 500 176 120
Mark Hubbard 1.62% 62 46 89
Martin Laird 0.19% 526 226 42
Mason Andersen 0.08% 1250 376 22
Matt Kuchar 5.17% 19 34 2.30% 46 -2.3 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 0.07% 1429 376 42
Matt Wallace 2.69% 37 34 71
Matteo Manassero 0.19% 526 131 61
Matthew Riedel 0.02% 5000 501 29
Matthieu Pavon 0.51% 196 176 99
Matti Schmid 2.00% 50 34 34
Max McGreevy 1.18% 85 46 3
Michael Brennan 1.08% 93 34 18
Nick Hardy 0.32% 313 141 83
Nico Echavarria 3.26% 31 23 46
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.43% 233 111 14
Noah Goodwin 0.56% 179 131 14
Oliver Betschart 0.00% 10000 5001 112
Oscar Couilleau 0.00% 10000 451 105
Patrick Fishburn 1.13% 88 71 34
Patrick Rodgers 3.04% 33 31 83
Paul Ferrier 0.00% 10000 3001 114
Paul Peterson 0.35% 286 226 52
Philip Knowles 0.01% 10000 1001 102
Pierceson Coody 2.47% 40 29 22
Quade Cummins 0.52% 192 131 105
Rafael Campos 0.04% 2500 301 71
Ricky Castillo 0.88% 114 76 89
Rico Hoey 4.72% 21 23 0.40% 22 -0.4 BetGoodwin: 16/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino 0.18% 556 226 8
Robert Streb 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Ryan Palmer 0.00% 10000 2001 70
Ryo Hisatsune 0.87% 115 71 52
Sahith Theegala 1.07% 93 46 42
Sam Ryder 1.15% 87 71 83
Sam Stevens 0.86% 116 51 71
Sami Valimaki 2.10% 48 36 18
Samuel Anderson 0.03% 3333 326 105
Seamus Power 1.96% 51 51 11
Steven Fisk 1.29% 78 61 29
Takumi Kanaya 1.63% 61 56 3
Taylor Dickson 0.03% 3333 476 55
Taylor Montgomery 0.65% 154 81 34
Taylor Moore 1.37% 73 67 89
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.80% 125 76 29
Thorbjorn Olesen 6.55% 15 23 2.30% 29 -2.3 Betfred: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trevor Cone 0.56% 179 81 71
Trey Mullinax 0.23% 435 151 46
Tyler Duncan 0.10% 1000 276 61
Tyler Watts 0.31% 323 351 58
Victor Perez 3.10% 32 41 0.70% 71 -0.7 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Covello 0.02% 5000 2501 71
Vince Whaley 3.32% 30 36 0.60% 3 1.2 BetGoodwin: 25/1, 10pl, 1/5
Will Chandler 0.06% 1667 551 114
Will Gordon 0.13% 769 276 34
Will Haddrell 0.00% 10000 4001 102
Zac Blair 0.34% 294 131 9

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

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