Simulation Results: Baycurrent Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Scott 2.00% 50 46 27
Aldrich Potgieter 0.40% 250 101 33
Alex Noren 4.92% 20 23 0.60% 27 -0.6 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alex Smalley 0.67% 149 91 4
Andrew Putnam 1.48% 68 101 0.50% 65 -0.5 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Eckroat 1.53% 65 67 56
Beau Hossler 1.02% 98 81 36
Billy Horschel 1.07% 93 71 54
Brian Campbell 0.24% 417 401 20
Bud Cauley 1.44% 69 61 36
Byeong Hun An 1.40% 71 61 4
Camilo Villegas 0.08% 1250 751 36
Chris Gotterup 2.00% 50 26 40
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 2.83% 35 46 0.70% 10 -0.7 Priced Up: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa 3.86% 26 17 14
Danny Walker 0.61% 164 151 75
David Lipsky 0.34% 294 176 52
Davis Riley 0.37% 270 161 78
Emiliano Grillo 1.93% 52 46 27
Eric Cole 1.61% 62 67 0.10% 48 -0.1 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Garrick Higgo 2.01% 50 46 4
Gary Woodland 2.02% 50 56 0.20% 72 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hideki Matsuyama 3.23% 31 19 20
Isaiah Salinda 0.45% 222 126 46
Joe Highsmith 0.17% 588 301 69
Joel Dahmen 0.55% 182 141 69
Kaito Onishi 0.06% 1667 2501 54
Karl Vilips 0.31% 323 201 40
Kazuki Higa 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 18 -0.1 Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keita Nakajima 0.75% 133 71 40
Keith Mitchell 1.26% 79 76 10
Kevin Roy 0.97% 103 86 40
Kevin Yu 2.27% 44 36 20
Kota Kaneko 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 33 -0.1 William Hill: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kurt Kitayama 2.79% 36 27 48
Lee Hodges 1.28% 78 81 40
Mac Meissner 1.20% 83 71 27
Mark Hubbard 1.30% 77 67 48
Matt McCarty 1.06% 94 61 14
Matt Wallace 1.53% 65 51 10
Matti Schmid 0.95% 105 71 46
Max Greyserman 0.95% 105 71 2
Max Homa 1.69% 59 36 40
Max McGreevy 0.51% 196 101 33
Michael Kim 2.35% 43 41 56
Michael Thorbjornsen 1.65% 61 36 3
Mikumu Horikawa 0.62% 161 251 0.20% 52 -0.2 Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Min Woo Lee 2.39% 42 36 10
Naoto Nakanishi 0.01% 10000 5001 76
Nico Echavarria 0.69% 145 81 9
Nicolai Hojgaard 1.43% 70 56 14
Patrick Fishburn 1.56% 64 61 62
Patrick Rodgers 0.90% 111 111 62
Rasmus Hojgaard 3.45% 29 26 14
Ren Yonezawa 0.62% 161 251 0.20% 20 -0.2 Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rico Hoey 1.27% 79 56 4
Riki Kawamoto 0.23% 435 401 77
Ryan Gerard 0.92% 109 71 27
Ryo Hisatsune 1.09% 92 67 72
Ryo Ishikawa 0.26% 385 376 69
Sahith Theegala 0.70% 143 91 27
Sam Ryder 0.82% 122 101 20
Sam Stevens 0.92% 109 76 36
Sami Valimaki 0.94% 106 76 72
Satoshi Kodaira 0.11% 909 751 67
Si Woo Kim 3.46% 29 23 20
Sungjae Im 1.68% 60 51 20
Taiga Kobayashi 0.00% 10000 2501 67
Taiga Semikawa 0.70% 143 121 60
Takanori Konishi 0.11% 909 2501 0.10% 62 -0.1 Betfred: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takumi Kanaya 1.26% 79 67 4
Tatsunori Shogenji 0.47% 213 351 0.20% 65 -0.2 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore 1.17% 85 81 56
Tom Kim 1.55% 65 61 56
Vince Whaley 1.68% 60 51 60
William Mouw 0.45% 222 101 18
Wyndham Clark 1.45% 69 46 48
Xander Schauffele 4.97% 20 11 1

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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