Simulation Results: Barracuda Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 141 -0.1 Spreadex: 1250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Aaron Wise 0.21% 476 301 133
Adam Hadwin 0.78% 128 101 75
Adam Schenk 0.67% 149 101 75
Adam Svensson 0.72% 139 111 141
Alejandro Tosti 0.58% 172 81 126
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.79% 127 126 102
Alexander Knappe 0.06% 1667 1501 75
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.07% 1429 1251 75
Andrea Pavan 0.41% 244 176 89
Andrew Putnam 2.72% 37 41 0.30% 11 -0.3 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Wilson 0.15% 667 601 50
Austin Cook 0.07% 1429 1501 41
Austin Eckroat 1.82% 55 46 67
Beau Hossler 1.90% 53 36 4
Ben Kohles 0.98% 102 91 155
Ben Martin 0.67% 149 201 0.20% 56 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Polland 0.05% 2000 1501 23
Ben Silverman 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 11 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bernd Wiesberger 0.42% 238 276 0.10% 126 -0.1 Betfred: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Thornberry 0.10% 1000 751 89
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.40% 250 151 35
Brandon Wu 0.25% 400 601 0.10% 63 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandt Snedeker 0.65% 154 151 118
Callum Shinkwin 0.28% 357 251 57
Calum Hill 0.66% 152 111 141
Cam Davis 0.54% 185 67 102
Cameron Champ 1.35% 74 29 102
Cameron Sisk 0.00% 10000 2001 146
Camilo Villegas 0.32% 313 451 0.10% 64 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Young 0.89% 112 81 17
Casey Jarvis 0.16% 625 401 149
Chad Ramey 1.06% 94 81 75
Chan Kim 1.51% 66 56 114
Chandler Phillips 1.30% 77 81 0.10% 32 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chaz Aurilia 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Chesson Hadley 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 35 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Chez Reavie 0.25% 400 251 75
Chris Korte 0.07% 1429 1001 102
Cole Rueck 0.00% 10000 2001 126
Cristobal Del Solar 0.22% 455 401 89
Dale Whitnell 0.15% 667 751 35
Dan Bradbury 0.54% 185 201 146
Danny Walker 0.58% 172 126 89
David Lipsky 0.58% 172 151 32
David Longmire 0.00% 10000 1001 65
David Skinns 0.72% 139 111 8
Davis Riley 0.53% 189 56 144
Doug Ghim 1.53% 65 51 20
Dylan Frittelli 0.18% 556 251 29
Dylan Wu 0.61% 164 176 67
Emiliano Grillo 2.56% 39 29 89
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 3001 154
Erik Van Rooyen 1.20% 83 51 2
Frankie Capan 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 139 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Garrick Higgo 1.07% 93 67 155
Gavin Green 0.30% 333 201 89
Greyson Sigg 0.85% 118 101 114
Hamish Brown 0.16% 625 401 126
Harry Higgs 0.54% 185 101 75
Hayden Buckley 0.16% 625 351 52
Hayden Springer 1.08% 93 67 23
Isaiah Salinda 0.70% 143 67 35
Ivan Cantero 0.39% 256 151 54
Jackson Suber 0.69% 145 101 7
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.68% 147 126 4
James Hahn 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 102 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jannik De Bruyn 0.08% 1250 751 89
Jason Scrivener 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 8 -0.1 Betfred: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 102 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko 0.10% 1000 1251 102
Jeremy Paul 0.77% 130 91 102
Joe Highsmith 0.96% 104 81 89
Joel Dahmen 0.78% 128 111 17
Joel Girrbach 0.12% 833 501 20
John Pak 0.27% 370 351 75
Jonathan Byrd 0.09% 1111 601 23
Jordan Gumberg 0.10% 1000 751 150
Joseph Bramlett 1.02% 98 81 45
Joshua Kelley 0.00% 10000 2501 152
Julien Brun 0.06% 1667 1251 139
Kaito Onishi 0.19% 526 451 126
Kevin Chappell 0.19% 526 501 89
Kevin Roy 1.81% 55 41 35
Kevin Velo 0.14% 714 351 67
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.27% 370 251 65
Kris Ventura 1.23% 81 61 41
Kurt Kitayama 2.22% 45 23 14
Lanto Griffin 0.65% 154 126 14
Lee Hodges 2.19% 46 34 118
Luke List 1.08% 93 67 62
M.J. Daffue 0.20% 500 601 118
Mac Meissner 0.94% 106 91 89
Manuel Elvira 0.35% 286 141 152
Marcus Armitage 1.22% 82 126 0.40% 141 -0.4 Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult 0.35% 286 451 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Hubbard 1.59% 63 41 35
Martin Laird 0.80% 125 126 11
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Mason Andersen 0.09% 1111 601 75
Matt NeSmith 0.48% 208 176 60
Matthew Baldwin 0.05% 2000 1251 118
Matthew Riedel 0.18% 556 276 75
Matthias Schwab 0.07% 1429 1501 114
Max Homa 1.58% 63 26 45
Max McGreevy 0.75% 133 71 4
Maximilian Kieffer 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 133 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael La Sasso 0.02% 5000 201 150
Nate Lashley 0.82% 122 111 32
Nick Dunlap 0.53% 189 67 133
Nick Hardy 1.03% 97 86 89
Nick Watney 0.11% 909 1001 50
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.39% 256 176 75
Noah Goodwin 0.49% 204 201 75
Ollie Osborne 0.06% 1667 601 102
Patrick Fishburn 2.26% 44 34 52
Patrick Newcomb 0.04% 2500 1251 47
Patrick Rodgers 1.84% 54 41 102
Paul Peterson 0.73% 137 126 41
Peter Malnati 0.25% 400 301 89
Pierceson Coody 1.63% 61 29 57
Quade Cummins 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 20 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
R.J. Manke 0.02% 5000 1251 141
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.18% 556 501 114
Rafael Campos 0.24% 417 501 126
Ricardo Gouveia 0.22% 455 301 57
Richard Sterne 0.14% 714 1251 0.10% 67 -0.1 Spreadex: 1250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ricky Castillo 1.11% 90 56 23
Rico Hoey 2.45% 41 29 8
Robin Williams 0.12% 833 501 17
Ryan Gerard 1.90% 53 23 1
Ryan Palmer 0.02% 5000 1501 102
Ryo Hisatsune 1.48% 68 51 47
Sam Bairstow 0.60% 167 81 75
Sam Ryder 0.96% 104 71 14
Scott Jamieson 0.31% 323 301 67
Scott Piercy 0.70% 143 226 0.30% 146 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seamus Power 1.50% 67 61 67
Sean Crocker 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 89 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shubhankar Sharma 0.10% 1000 1001 118
Steven Fisk 1.11% 90 67 67
Taylor Dickson 0.14% 714 501 133
Taylor Montgomery 0.90% 111 81 67
Taylor Moore 1.65% 61 34
Thomas Aiken 0.14% 714 1001 118
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.67% 149 91 29
Tim Widing 0.18% 556 251 133
Todd Clements 0.56% 179 226 0.10% 3 2.7625 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Vaillant 0.23% 435 301 41
Trevor Cone 0.37% 270 151 47
Vince Whaley 2.42% 41 23 23
Will Chandler 0.21% 476 451 118
Will Gordon 0.91% 110 81 23
Yannik Paul 0.76% 132 226 0.30% 102 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.45% 222 176 29
Zac Blair 0.00% 10000 151 54

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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