Simulation Results: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.02% 5000 751 76
Adam Hadwin 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 59 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Schenk 0.11% 909 401 6
Adam Svensson 0.35% 286 101 30
Aldrich Potgieter 0.02% 5000 351 127
Alex Smalley 0.22% 455 176 16
Andrew Novak 0.76% 132 81 77
Andrew Putnam 0.57% 175 81 30
Austin Eckroat 1.94% 52 41 77
Ben Griffin 1.22% 82 51 45
Ben Kohles 0.08% 1250 401 53
Ben Martin 0.09% 1111 501 59
Ben Polland 0.21% 476 4001 0.20% 130 -0.2 Bet365: 4000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman 0.42% 238 176 69
Billy Horschel 1.21% 83 71 77
Braden Thornberry 0.02% 5000 501 93
Brandt Snedeker 0.02% 5000 601 53
Brendon Todd 0.27% 370 176 77
Brian Campbell 0.12% 833 351 142
Brian Harman 0.87% 115 56 21
Brice Garnett 0.20% 500 501 30
Bud Cauley 0.39% 256 151 30
Byeong Hun An 2.44% 41 26 77
C.T. Pan 0.44% 227 176 21
Cam Davis 1.16% 86 61 93
Camilo Villegas 0.01% 10000 2501 119
Carson Young 0.25% 400 201 77
Chad Ramey 0.12% 833 351 77
Chan Kim 0.36% 278 151 53
Chandler Phillips 0.82% 122 101 134
Charley Hoffman 0.41% 244 176 59
Chris Gotterup 0.24% 417 351 105
Chris Kirk 1.18% 85 51 105
Corey Conners 5.83% 17 17 93
Cristobal Del Solar 0.02% 5000 601 70
Daniel Berger 0.65% 154 67 77
Danny Walker 0.05% 2000 751 105
David Lipsky 0.34% 294 251 45
David Skinns 0.04% 2500 601 77
Davis Thompson 1.45% 69 46 93
Denny McCarthy 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 16 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim 0.48% 208 101 72
Emiliano Grillo 0.54% 185 111 93
Eric Cole 0.90% 111 76 5
Erik Van Rooyen 0.31% 323 176 30
Frankie Capan 0.10% 1000 351 45
Gary Woodland 0.23% 435 176 16
Greyson Sigg 0.22% 455 201 70
Harris English 0.74% 135 67 119
Harry Hall 1.57% 64 51 10
Harry Higgs 0.06% 1667 351 134
Henrik Norlander 0.39% 256 176 37
Hideki Matsuyama 14.20% 7 11 5.60% 16 -5.6 Ladbrokes: 8/1, 10pl, 1/5
Isaiah Salinda 0.05% 2000 501 105
J.J. Spaun 0.28% 357 126 3
J.T. Poston 1.73% 58 41 77
Jackson Suber 0.03% 3333 501 6
Jacob Bridgeman 0.34% 294 176 77
Jake Knapp 0.12% 833 351
James Hahn 0.03% 3333 1001 37
Jeremy Paul 0.05% 2000 501 45
Jesper Svensson 0.15% 667 201 10
Joe Highsmith 0.36% 278 126 124
Joel Dahmen 0.14% 714 201 105
John Pak 0.02% 5000 1001 130
Justin Lower 0.45% 222 151 37
Kaito Onishi 0.01% 10000 1001 93
Keegan Bradley 3.03% 33 26 6
Keith Mitchell 0.44% 227 126 30
Kelly Welsh 0.00% 10000 5001 141
Kensei Hirata 0.10% 1000 351 21
Kevin Roy 0.07% 1429 351 45
Kevin Velo 0.01% 10000 751 105
Kris Ventura 0.04% 2500 501 105
Kurt Kitayama 1.10% 91 41 37
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.13% 769 251 134
Lee Hodges 0.55% 182 151 10
Lucas Glover 0.75% 133 91 21
Luke Clanton 4.84% 21 41 2.50% 93 -2.5 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Luke List 0.17% 588 301 72
Mac Meissner 0.37% 270 176 21
Mackenzie Hughes 1.18% 85 67 138
Mao Matsuyama 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Mark Hubbard 0.55% 182 126 21
Mason Andersen 0.02% 5000 1001 105
Matt Kuchar 0.49% 204 101 21
Matt McCarty 0.18% 556 151 65
Matti Schmid 0.15% 667 201 105
Maverick McNealy 2.88% 35 29 45
Max McGreevy 0.23% 435 151 77
Michael Kim 0.68% 147 101 77
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.81% 123 91
Nate Lashley 0.16% 625 401 37
Nick Dunlap 0.38% 263 91 10
Nick Hardy 0.12% 833 251 105
Nick Taylor 0.55% 182 126 1
Nico Echavarria 0.68% 147 91 2
Noah Goodwin 0.06% 1667 501 105
Patrick Fishburn 1.13% 88 91 6
Patrick Rodgers 1.04% 96 91 93
Patton Kizzire 0.35% 286 151 77
Paul Peterson 0.12% 833 601 10
Peter Malnati 0.06% 1667 751 140
Quade Cummins 0.07% 1429 351 127
Rafael Campos 0.08% 1250 601 93
Ricky Castillo 0.04% 2500 501 105
Rico Hoey 0.50% 200 176 59
Rikuya Hoshino 0.10% 1000 351 119
Robert MacIntyre 2.32% 43 29 53
Russell Henley 5.38% 19 23 1.10% 10 -1.1 Skybet: 20/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Gerard 0.18% 556 176 37
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 601 105
Ryo Hisatsune 0.21% 476 251 65
Sahith Theegala 1.61% 62 41 37
Sam Ryder 0.15% 667 276 21
Sam Stevens 0.45% 222 126 59
Seamus Power 0.66% 152 81 134
Sepp Straka 1.39% 72 61 30
Si Woo Kim 1.98% 51 34 77
Stephan Jaeger 0.84% 119 81 3
Steven Fisk 0.10% 1000 501 93
Takumi Kanaya 0.24% 417 176 93
Taylor Dickson 0.03% 3333 501 72
Taylor Montgomery 0.10% 1000 501 65
Taylor Moore 0.57% 175 126 130
Taylor Pendrith 2.82% 35 41 0.40% 45 -0.4 Skybet: 40/1, 8pl, 1/5
Thomas Detry 1.70% 59 71 0.30% 53 -0.3 Skybet: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.01% 10000 501 59
Tim Widing 0.03% 3333 501 142
Tom Hoge 2.01% 50 67 0.50% 45 -0.5 William Hill: 60/1, 8pl, 1/5
Tom Kim 0.61% 164 21 65
Trevor Cone 0.04% 2500 501 119
Tyler Loree 0.00% 10000 5001 124
Vince Whaley 0.61% 164 176 72
Vincent Norrman 0.05% 2000 501 37
Webb Simpson 0.10% 1000 301 16
Will Gordon 0.10% 1000 351 127
William Mouw 0.09% 1111 501 105
Yuta Sugiura 0.38% 263 601 0.20% 124 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 500/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zach Johnson 0.21% 476 301 21

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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