Simulation Results: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	1.38%	72	51		11
Akshay Bhatia	0.82%	122	71		1
Aldrich Potgieter	0.07%	1429	151		70
Alex Noren	0.86%	116	101		24
Andrew Novak	0.15%	667	276		38
Andrew Putnam	0.19%	526	451		44
Austin Smotherman	0.20%	500	201		51
Ben Griffin	1.56%	64	56		53
Billy Horschel	0.14%	714	401		13
Brian Campbell	0.01%	10000	1501		53
Brian Harman	0.29%	345	226		50
Bud Cauley	0.15%	667	301		18
Cameron Young	1.53%	65	41		3
Chris Gotterup	0.84%	119	51		18
Chris Kirk	0.29%	345	201		47
Collin Morikawa	2.62%	38	26		5
Corey Conners	0.98%	102	81		33
Daniel Bennett	0.00%	10000	1501		47
Daniel Berger	0.45%	222	126		2
Denny McCarthy	0.48%	208	201		65
Harris English	1.88%	53	36		24
Harry Hall	0.50%	200	126		9
Hideki Matsuyama	2.72%	37	31		41
J.J. Spaun	0.71%	141	81		53
J.T. Poston	0.51%	196	151		71
Jacob Bridgeman	1.23%	81	56		18
Jake Knapp	2.00%	50	41
Jason Day	1.45%	69	81	0.20%	61	-0.2	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.02%	5000	1001		18
Joel Dahmen	0.21%	476	201		53
Jordan Spieth	1.57%	64	67	0.10%	11	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Justin Rose	0.71%	141	56		68
Justin Thomas	0.55%	182	67		72
Keegan Bradley	1.29%	78	71		65
Keith Mitchell	0.53%	189	81		33
Kurt Kitayama	1.25%	80	46		18
Lucas Glover	0.12%	833	401		24
Ludvig Aberg	1.13%	88	34		3
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.68%	37	23		41
Matt McCarty	0.63%	159	126		41
Maverick McNealy	0.98%	102	61		13
Max Greyserman	0.32%	313	126		18
Michael Kim	0.24%	417	251		33
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.26%	385	91		33
Min Woo Lee	1.24%	81	46		6
Nick Taylor	0.83%	120	91		38
Nico Echavarria	0.31%	323	101		44
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.66%	152	61		24
Patrick Cantlay	2.31%	43	46	0.10%	61	-0.1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Rodgers	0.27%	370	161		24
Pierceson Coody	0.64%	156	61		65
Rickie Fowler	1.45%	69	51		9
Robert MacIntyre	1.60%	63	46		24
Rory McIlroy	7.45%	13	10.5		51
Russell Henley	3.17%	32	34	0.20%	6	0.34	Skybet: 22/1, 12pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox	0.52%	192	101		24
Ryan Gerard	0.71%	141	51		53
Ryo Hisatsune	0.31%	323	111		33
Sahith Theegala	0.50%	200	101		6
Sam Burns	1.27%	79	56		61
Sam Stevens	0.38%	263	101		68
Scottie Scheffler	22.42%	4.5	4.5	0.30%	24	-0.3	Skybet: 2.75/1, 12pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka	0.67%	149	61		13
Shane Lowry	2.35%	43	41		53
Si Woo Kim	2.28%	44	34		13
Sungjae Im	0.32%	313	151		61
Taylor Moore	0.27%	370	176		44
Taylor Pendrith	0.45%	222	151		38
Tom Hoge	0.18%	556	276		53
Tommy Fleetwood	5.94%	17	19	0.70%	49	-0.7	Skybet: 12/1, 12pl, 1/5
Viktor Hovland	2.11%	47	36		13
Xander Schauffele	2.91%	34	23		24

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Scott	1.62%	62	51		6
Akshay Bhatia	1.23%	81	56		18
Aldrich Potgieter	0.38%	263	91		70
Alex Noren	1.28%	78	67		33
Andrew Novak	0.51%	196	101		52
Andrew Putnam	0.55%	182	141		45
Austin Smotherman	0.56%	179	101		52
Ben Griffin	1.76%	57	56		33
Billy Horschel	0.48%	208	126		9
Brian Campbell	0.15%	667	251		26
Brian Harman	0.68%	147	91		45
Bud Cauley	0.45%	222	126		9
Cameron Young	1.82%	55	41		4
Chris Gotterup	1.29%	78	51		9
Chris Kirk	0.74%	135	126		45
Collin Morikawa	2.36%	42	34		2
Corey Conners	1.40%	71	67		9
Daniel Bennett	0.04%	2500	351		26
Daniel Berger	0.99%	101	81		1
Denny McCarthy	0.98%	102	101		33
Harris English	1.95%	51	46		9
Harry Hall	0.94%	106	81		45
Hideki Matsuyama	2.38%	42	41		18
J.J. Spaun	1.08%	93	61		45
J.T. Poston	0.96%	104	81		61
Jacob Bridgeman	1.56%	64	51		61
Jake Knapp	2.00%	50	41
Jason Day	1.77%	56	67	0.30%	52	-0.3	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jhonattan Vegas	0.16%	625	226		4
Joel Dahmen	0.54%	185	101		61
Jordan Spieth	1.74%	57	61	0.10%	33	-0.1	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Rose	1.13%	88	51		18
Justin Thomas	0.92%	109	56		70
Keegan Bradley	1.52%	66	61		26
Keith Mitchell	1.01%	99	61		9
Kurt Kitayama	1.54%	65	46		9
Lucas Glover	0.45%	222	141		45
Ludvig Aberg	1.51%	66	41		2
Matt Fitzpatrick	2.39%	42	36		52
Matt McCarty	0.99%	101	71		61
Maverick McNealy	1.36%	74	61		18
Max Greyserman	0.76%	132	81		52
Michael Kim	0.62%	161	126		61
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.69%	145	67		18
Min Woo Lee	1.50%	67	51		9
Nick Taylor	1.20%	83	81		33
Nico Echavarria	0.75%	133	71		33
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.10%	91	51		33
Patrick Cantlay	2.14%	47	46		26
Patrick Rodgers	0.65%	154	81		33
Pierceson Coody	1.05%	95	56		70
Rickie Fowler	1.70%	59	61	0.10%	9	-0.1	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert MacIntyre	1.75%	57	46		33
Rory McIlroy	4.45%	22	21		33
Russell Henley	2.64%	38	41	0.20%	18	-0.2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Fox	0.98%	102	67		6
Ryan Gerard	1.12%	89	56		68
Ryo Hisatsune	0.72%	139	71		26
Sahith Theegala	0.91%	110	71		18
Sam Burns	1.54%	65	51		52
Sam Stevens	0.85%	118	71		52
Scottie Scheffler	9.12%	11	13	1.50%	18	-1.5	William Hill: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	1.09%	92	56		33
Shane Lowry	2.25%	44	41		52
Si Woo Kim	2.11%	47	41		26
Sungjae Im	0.73%	137	91		66
Taylor Moore	0.67%	149	91		26
Taylor Pendrith	0.85%	118	81		45
Tom Hoge	0.47%	213	126		52
Tommy Fleetwood	3.81%	26	36	1.10%	66	-1.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Viktor Hovland	2.06%	49	51	0.10%	33	-0.1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xander Schauffele	2.55%	39	31		6

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood	5.94%	17	19	0.70%	49	-2	Skybet: 12/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Scottie Scheffler	22.42%	4.5	4.5	0.30%	24	-2	Skybet: 2.75/1, 12pl, 1/5
WIN: Russell Henley	3.17%	32	34	0.20%	6	3.4	Skybet: 22/1, 12pl, 1/5
FRL: Scottie Scheffler	9.12%	11	13	1.50%	18	-1	William Hill: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tommy Fleetwood	3.81%	26	36	1.10%	66	-1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Day	1.77%	56	67	0.30%	52	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Russell Henley	2.64%	38	41	0.20%	18	-1	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Viktor Hovland	2.06%	49	51	0.10%	33	-1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jordan Spieth	1.74%	57	61	0.10%	33	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.