Simulation Results: The American Express

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.02%	5000	2501		44
Adam Long	0.01%	10000	5001		143
Adam Schenk	0.07%	1429	601		146
Adam Scott	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	24	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Adam Svensson	0.21%	476	501		88
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.35%	286	276		69
Adrien Saddier	0.33%	303	501	0.10%	70	-0.1	Unibet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akshay Bhatia	0.72%	139	86		141
Aldrich Potgieter	0.16%	625	251		120
Alejandro Tosti	0.07%	1429	401		150
Alex Noren	1.20%	83	56		108
Alex Smalley	0.61%	164	101		44
Andrew Landry	0.01%	10000	5001		151
Andrew Novak	0.54%	185	151		74
Andrew Putnam	0.54%	185	501	0.30%	2	18.6	Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Eckroat	0.36%	278	226		74
Austin Smotherman	0.11%	909	751		8
Beau Hossler	0.32%	313	326		98
Ben Griffin	3.14%	32	21		24
Billy Horschel	0.45%	222	226		27
Blades Brown	0.11%	909	601		17
Brandt Snedeker	0.20%	500	751	0.10%	74	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brian Campbell	0.17%	588	901	0.10%	141	-0.1	Unibet: 900/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Harman	1.22%	82	131	0.50%	108	-0.5	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brice Garnett	0.27%	370	601	0.10%	74	-0.1	Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bud Cauley	0.71%	141	151		74
Cam Davis	0.13%	769	551		147
Camilo Villegas	0.05%	2000	1001		74
Carson Young	0.18%	556	601		44
Chad Ramey	0.22%	455	501		63
Chan Kim	0.26%	385	401		120
Chandler Blanchet	0.13%	769	501		132
Chandler Phillips	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	63	-0.1	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hoffman	0.02%	5000	601		143
Chris Kirk	1.00%	100	181	0.50%	88	-0.5	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.39%	72	76	0.10%	38	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christo Lamprecht	0.08%	1250	551		149
Daniel Berger	1.32%	76	67		56
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.88%	114	251	0.50%	108	-0.5	QuinnBet: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danny Walker	0.09%	1111	1501		108
David Ford	0.22%	455	351		13
David Lipsky	0.08%	1250	751		44
Davis Chatfield	0.11%	909	1251		63
Davis Riley	0.23%	435	251		56
Davis Thompson	1.06%	94	67		74
Denny McCarthy	1.46%	68	91	0.40%	56	-0.4	Priced Up: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Ghim	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	74	-0.1	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu	0.27%	370	601	0.10%	44	-0.1	Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emiliano Grillo	0.45%	222	201		108
Emilio Gonzalez	0.16%	625	1501	0.10%	98	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Eric Cole	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	27	-0.1	QuinnBet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Erik Van Rooyen	0.24%	417	351		98
Frankie Capan	0.05%	2000	1001		108
Gary Woodland	0.43%	233	226		72
Gordon Sargent	0.05%	2000	1501		127
Hank Lebioda	0.12%	833	1001		88
Haotong Li	0.39%	256	151		8
Harris English	1.50%	67	67		27
Harry Hall	2.10%	48	41		24
Harry Higgs	0.17%	588	801		88
Isaiah Salinda	0.19%	526	551		132
J.T. Poston	1.53%	65	67		38
Jackson Suber	0.24%	417	501		138
Jacob Bridgeman	0.89%	112	111		13
Jason Day	1.13%	88	81		2
Jason Dufner	0.02%	5000	5001		88
Jeffrey Kang	0.06%	1667	2001		108
Jesper Svensson	0.22%	455	201		98
Jhonattan Vegas	0.21%	476	251		127
Jimmy Stanger	0.02%	5000	1501		147
Joe Highsmith	0.10%	1000	751		132
Joel Dahmen	0.17%	588	751		38
John Parry	0.57%	175	161		56
John VanDerLaan	0.13%	769	751		120
Johnny Keefer	0.46%	217	151		27
Jordan Smith	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	27	-0.2	BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Lower	0.10%	1000	501		143
Justin Rose	0.85%	118	71		98
Karl Vilips	0.07%	1429	751		18
Keita Nakajima	0.19%	526	351		74
Keith Mitchell	0.85%	118	101		44
Kensei Hirata	0.16%	625	1251	0.10%	120	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kevin Roy	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	88	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Streelman	0.07%	1429	2501		88
Kevin Yu	0.43%	233	101		108
Kris Ventura	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	74	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kurt Kitayama	1.23%	81	51		74
Lanto Griffin	0.25%	400	751	0.10%	98	-0.1	Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee Hodges	0.73%	137	181	0.20%	98	-0.2	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ludvig Aberg	1.82%	55	26		153
Luke Clanton	0.26%	385	251		155
Mac Meissner	0.73%	137	181	0.20%	63	-0.2	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mackenzie Hughes	0.44%	227	251		127
Marcelo Rozo	0.01%	10000	3001		120
Mark Hubbard	0.34%	294	301		135
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.23%	81	41		63
Matt Kuchar	0.62%	161	301	0.30%	44	-0.3	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty	0.92%	109	131	0.20%	2	3.15	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Wallace	0.87%	115	131	0.10%	98	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matthieu Pavon	0.20%	500	601		27
Matti Schmid	0.37%	270	151		135
Max Greyserman	0.49%	204	101		56
Max Homa	0.47%	213	101		27
Max McGreevy	0.47%	213	326	0.20%	27	-0.2	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Block	0.00%	10000	5001		138
Michael Brennan	0.30%	333	131		56
Michael Kim	0.93%	108	101		88
Michael Thorbjornsen	1.00%	100	51		108
Min Woo Lee	1.09%	92	67		38
Neal Shipley	0.18%	556	251		127
Nick Dunlap	0.11%	909	161		153
Nick Taylor	1.22%	82	86	0.10%	27	-0.1	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria	0.29%	345	226		127
Patrick Cantlay	2.24%	45	29		13
Patrick Fishburn	0.35%	286	301		135
Patrick Rodgers	0.97%	103	131	0.20%	44	-0.2	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patton Kizzire	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	108	-0.1	Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Malnati	0.03%	3333	3001		98
Pierceson Coody	0.66%	152	81		18
Pontus Nyholm	0.06%	1667	751		152
Rafael Campos	0.05%	2000	4001		44
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.68%	147	67		44
Rickie Fowler	1.09%	92	71		18
Ricky Castillo	0.71%	141	176	0.10%	44	-0.1	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rico Hoey	0.74%	135	71		155
Robert MacIntyre	2.49%	40	26		38
Russell Henley	3.76%	27	23		8
Ryan Gerard	1.26%	79	67		2
Ryo Hisatsune	0.28%	357	501	0.10%	44	-0.1	Betway: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sahith Theegala	0.53%	189	151		8
Sam Burns	1.80%	56	31		27
Sam Ryder	0.28%	357	401		27
Sam Stevens	0.78%	128	131		6
Sami Valimaki	0.96%	104	141	0.30%	108	-0.3	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scottie Scheffler	11.34%	8.8	4.2		1
Seamus Power	0.81%	123	151	0.10%	63	-0.1	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim	0.21%	476	401		18
Sepp Straka	0.85%	118	41		138
Seungtaek Lee	0.10%	1000	751		120
Si Woo Kim	2.58%	39	34		6
Stephan Jaeger	0.30%	333	351		88
Steven Fisk	0.36%	278	251		98
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.19%	526	501		74
Takumi Kanaya	0.57%	175	226	0.10%	74	-0.1	Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	0.24%	417	501		56
Taylor Pendrith	1.36%	74	51		74
Tom Hoge	0.34%	294	251		8
Tom Kim	0.53%	189	276	0.20%	38	-0.2	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tony Finau	0.30%	333	251		88
Vince Whaley	0.74%	135	131		108
Will Zalatoris	1.03%	97	81		18
William Mouw	0.39%	256	201		120
Wyndham Clark	0.69%	145	91		13
Zach Bauchou	0.10%	1000	1501		13
Zach Johnson	0.36%	278	1501	0.30%	70	-0.3	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Zecheng Dou	0.24%	417	301		73

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Brian Harman	1.22%	82	131	0.50%	108	-2	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Chris Kirk	1.00%	100	181	0.50%	88	-2	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.88%	114	251	0.50%	108	-2	QuinnBet: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.