Simulation Results: The American Express

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.02% 5000 2501 105
Adam Hadwin 0.76% 132 71 91
Adam Schenk 0.47% 213 176 156
Adam Svensson 0.50% 200 141 109
Aldrich Potgieter 0.02% 5000 501 109
Alejandro Tosti 0.08% 1250 351 58
Alex Smalley 0.50% 200 111 11
Anders Albertson 0.01% 10000 2501 118
Andrew Novak 0.58% 172 91 151
Andrew Putnam 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 80 -0.2 Skybet: 110/1, 8pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.17% 588 176 139
Beau Hossler 0.45% 222 101 12
Ben Griffin 1.21% 83 61 7
Ben Kohles 0.20% 500 401 21
Ben Martin 0.23% 435 401 91
Ben Silverman 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 147 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Bill Haas 0.01% 10000 1501 147
Billy Horschel 0.90% 111 111 21
Blades Brown 0.46% 217 1001 0.40% 91 -0.4 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Thornberry 0.04% 2500 501 125
Brandt Snedeker 0.07% 1429 1001 51
Brendon Todd 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 155 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Campbell 0.25% 400 301 51
Brian Harman 1.42% 70 56 109
Brice Garnett 0.19% 526 501 34
Bronson Burgoon 0.01% 10000 1501 125
Bud Cauley 0.70% 143 111
Cam Davis 0.77% 130 76 18
Cameron Young 2.05% 49 41 147
Camilo Villegas 0.02% 5000 2501 7
Carson Young 0.29% 345 201 29
Chad Ramey 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 72 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chan Kim 0.61% 164 126 91
Chandler Phillips 0.43% 233 176 72
Charley Hoffman 0.33% 303 176 5
Chesson Hadley 0.09% 1111 501 142
Chez Reavie 0.10% 1000 1001 71
Chris Gotterup 0.19% 526 401 80
Chris Kirk 0.80% 125 126 34
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.31% 76 81 0.10% 118 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Cristobal Del Solar 0.02% 5000 1001 154
Daniel Berger 0.42% 238 71 21
Danny Walker 0.03% 3333 751 109
Danny Willett 0.04% 2500 1001 142
David Lipsky 0.29% 345 301 118
David Skinns 0.08% 1250 751 125
Davis Riley 0.01% 10000 1001 151
Davis Thompson 1.04% 96 41 51
Doug Ghim 0.54% 185 91 21
Emiliano Grillo 0.40% 250 201 109
Eric Cole 0.99% 101 56 68
Erik Van Rooyen 0.55% 182 126 118
Francesco Molinari 0.08% 1250 751 80
Frankie Capan 0.15% 667 226 12
Greyson Sigg 0.34% 294 251 105
Harris English 0.64% 156 126 43
Harry Hall 1.31% 76 46 21
Harry Higgs 0.05% 2000 501 34
Hayden Buckley 0.03% 3333 751 125
Henrik Norlander 0.61% 164 176 91
Isaiah Salinda 0.07% 1429 501 80
J.J. Spaun 1.00% 100 61 29
J.T. Poston 1.50% 67 61 12
Jackson Suber 0.21% 476 176 118
Jacob Bridgeman 0.38% 263 201 21
Jake Knapp 0.09% 1111 501 80
Jason Day 1.61% 62 71 0.20% 3 1.22 Skybet: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jason Dufner 0.00% 10000 2001 125
Jeremy Paul 0.15% 667 501 64
Jesper Svensson 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 91 -0.1 Unibet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jhonattan Vegas 1.04% 96 91 91
Joe Highsmith 0.33% 303 126 66
Joel Dahmen 0.11% 909 401 72
John Pak 0.02% 5000 2001 91
Justin Lower 0.64% 156 151 3
Justin Thomas 3.45% 29 13 2
Kaito Onishi 0.01% 10000 2501 125
Keith Mitchell 0.95% 105 91 21
Kevin Kisner 0.01% 10000 2501 147
Kevin Roy 0.19% 526 201 18
Kevin Streelman 0.14% 714 401 142
Kevin Velo 0.03% 3333 1001 133
Kevin Yu 0.42% 238 101 72
Kris Ventura 0.05% 2000 501 58
Kurt Kitayama 1.38% 72 36 58
Kyle Mendoza 0.00% 10000 5001 142
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.11% 909 501 80
Lanto Griffin 0.13% 769 251 34
Lee Hodges 0.90% 111 81 34
Lucas Glover 0.98% 102 101 118
Luke List 0.20% 500 301 72
Mac Meissner 0.82% 122 81 68
Mackenzie Hughes 0.76% 132 111 58
Mark Hubbard 0.73% 137 101 12
Mason Andersen 0.01% 10000 1501 118
Matt Kuchar 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 43 -0.1 Paddy Power: 110/1, 8pl, 1/5
Matt McCarty 0.21% 476 176 91
Matteo Manassero 0.11% 909 351 43
Matthew Riedel 0.02% 5000 1001 51
Matti Schmid 0.25% 400 176 109
Max Greyserman 2.12% 47 36 7
Max McGreevy 0.17% 588 141 109
Michael Kim 0.80% 125 101 43
Michael Thorbjornsen 0.71% 141 126 72
Nate Lashley 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 72 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Dunlap 0.71% 141 51 34
Nick Hardy 0.20% 500 401 109
Nick Taylor 0.66% 152 101 12
Nico Echavarria 0.75% 133 61 91
Noah Goodwin 0.05% 2000 751 91
Norman Xiong 0.02% 5000 1001 72
Patrick Cantlay 5.69% 18 19 0.50% 5 0.6 Betfair: 17/1, 8pl, 1/5
Patrick Fishburn 1.69% 59 56 133
Patrick Rodgers 0.83% 120 111 70
Patton Kizzire 0.23% 435 276 80
Paul Peterson 0.51% 196 401 0.30% 109 -0.3 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Malnati 0.02% 5000 1501 91
Philip Knowles 0.01% 10000 2501 151
Quade Cummins 0.05% 2000 401 34
Rafael Campos 0.08% 1250 1001 125
Rickie Fowler 0.58% 172 91 21
Ricky Castillo 0.05% 2000 501 43
Rico Hoey 0.59% 169 126 58
Rikuya Hoshino 0.08% 1250 501 43
Ryan Gerard 0.19% 526 201 51
Ryan Palmer 0.03% 3333 1001 34
Ryo Hisatsune 0.35% 286 276 43
Sam Burns 7.44% 13 17 1.70% 29 -1.7 Ladbrokes: 12/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sam Ryder 0.30% 333 226 43
Sam Stevens 0.53% 189 141 51
Sami Valimaki 0.02% 5000 1001 133
Sepp Straka 1.27% 79 67 1
Si Woo Kim 1.68% 60 36 51
Steven Fisk 0.10% 1000 401 125
Sungjae Im 9.73% 10 13 2.20% 91 -2.2 Ladbrokes: 11/1, 10pl, 1/5
Takumi Kanaya 0.28% 357 226 80
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 501 139
Taylor Montgomery 0.12% 833 351 58
Taylor Moore 0.40% 250 176 7
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.09% 1111 251 133
Tim Widing 0.02% 5000 501 80
Tom Hoge 1.61% 62 61 29
Tom Kim 1.36% 74 31 91
Tony Finau 3.87% 26 26 80
Trevor Cone 0.06% 1667 751 133
Trey Mullinax 0.07% 1429 601 18
Victor Perez 0.29% 345 201 34
Vince Whaley 0.48% 208 226 64
Vincent Norrman 0.14% 714 351 29
Wesley Bryan 0.13% 769 301 142
Will Chandler 0.02% 5000 2001 133
Will Gordon 0.09% 1111 751 66
Will Zalatoris 1.96% 51 51 12
William Mouw 0.09% 1111 501 139
Wyndham Clark 3.19% 31 31 105
Zach Johnson 0.58% 172 301 0.20% 80 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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