Simulation Results: 3M Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley 0.05% 2000 2001 147
Adam Hadwin 0.41% 244 251 44
Adam Schenk 0.27% 370 301 147
Adam Scott 1.93% 52 51 53
Adam Svensson 0.28% 357 251 14
Akshay Bhatia 1.63% 61 41 25
Alex Noren 1.19% 84 81 7
Alex Smalley 1.18% 85 76 44
Anders Albertson 0.03% 3333 2501
Andrew Putnam 2.05% 49 71 0.70% 77 -0.7 Ladbrokes: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner 0.66% 152 126 72
Austin Eckroat 1.05% 95 91 39
Beau Hossler 1.24% 81 81 144
Ben Kohles 0.36% 278 251 20
Ben Martin 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 77 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 61 -0.1 Betway: 300/1, 7pl, 1/5
Braden Thornberry 0.06% 1667 2501 93
Brandon Matthews 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Brandt Snedeker 0.24% 417 351 77
Brendan Valdes 0.41% 244 351 0.10% 20 -0.1 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brice Garnett 0.29% 345 226 57
Byeong Hun An 1.12% 89 91 93
Cam Davis 0.36% 278 126 133
Cameron Champ 0.66% 152 56 28
Camilo Villegas 0.09% 1111 751 53
Carson Herron 0.00% 10000 751 126
Carson Young 0.43% 233 226 28
Chad Ramey 0.40% 250 201 28
Chan Kim 0.49% 204 201 93
Chandler Phillips 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 140 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Chesson Hadley 0.24% 417 351 144
Chez Reavie 0.10% 1000 1001 93
Chris Gotterup 1.97% 51 26 10
Chris Kirk 0.88% 114 101 14
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.43% 70 67 20
Cristobal Del Solar 0.10% 1000 1001 61
Danny Walker 0.23% 435 351 119
Danny Willett 0.23% 435 401 119
David Ford 0.02% 5000 401 75
David Lipsky 0.31% 323 226 3
David Skinns 0.43% 233 226 57
Davis Riley 0.21% 476 151 77
Davis Thompson 1.23% 81 46 109
Doug Ghim 1.04% 96 81 77
Dylan Wu 0.29% 345 251 77
Emiliano Grillo 1.48% 68 56 20
Eric Cole 0.61% 164 126 109
Erik Van Rooyen 0.69% 145 91 133
Frankie Capan 0.06% 1667 1001 156
Garrick Higgo 0.44% 227 201 39
Gary Woodland 0.98% 102 101 20
Gordon Sargent 0.22% 455 351 133
Greyson Sigg 0.38% 263 301 39
Haotong Li 0.64% 156 91 77
Harrison Endycott 0.03% 3333 1501 147
Harry Higgs 0.17% 588 401 25
Hayden Buckley 0.08% 1250 501 126
Hayden Springer 0.62% 161 111 93
Henrik Norlander 0.58% 172 226 0.10% 72 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Isaiah Salinda 0.36% 278 226 53
Jackson Suber 0.35% 286 126 109
Jacob Bridgeman 1.16% 86 71 93
Jake Knapp 1.34% 75 36 3
Jeremy Paul 0.29% 345 301 93
Jesper Svensson 0.82% 122 71 14
Jhonattan Vegas 0.80% 125 76 44
Joe Highsmith 0.46% 217 201 109
Joel Dahmen 0.44% 227 251 39
John Pak 0.13% 769 601 77
Joseph Bramlett 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 44 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josh Radcliff 0.01% 10000 1001 93
Justin Lower 0.31% 323 301 133
Kaito Onishi 0.08% 1250 1001 133
Karl Vilips 0.13% 769 276 119
Keith Mitchell 1.10% 91 56 93
Kevin Kisner 0.07% 1429 1001 28
Kevin Roy 0.79% 127 81 28
Kevin Velo 0.09% 1111 1001 109
Kevin Yu 1.22% 82 51 77
Kris Ventura 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 77 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kurt Kitayama 1.62% 62 41 1
Lanto Griffin 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Hodges 1.06% 94 81 77
Luke Clanton 1.19% 84 81 61
Luke List 0.33% 303 226 93
Mac Meissner 0.40% 250 276 14
Mackenzie Hughes 0.73% 137 101 53
Mark Hubbard 0.69% 145 141 61
Mason Andersen 0.03% 3333 2501 109
Matt McCarty 0.91% 110 91 68
Matt Wallace 1.19% 84 67 3
Matthew Riedel 0.09% 1111 1001 119
Matthieu Pavon 0.23% 435 276 44
Matti Schmid 0.85% 118 81 61
Maverick McNealy 2.97% 34 21 126
Max Greyserman 1.91% 52 34 93
Max Herendeen 0.00% 10000 601 93
Max Homa 0.81% 123 51 39
Max McGreevy 0.53% 189 101 109
Michael Feuerstein 0.01% 10000 5001 147
Michael La Sasso 0.01% 10000 401 44
Michael Thorbjornsen 1.27% 79 36 144
Nate Lashley 0.36% 278 301 28
Nick Dunlap 0.11% 909 351 140
Nick Hardy 0.45% 222 226 28
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.54% 185 126 68
Noah Goodwin 0.19% 526 501 10
Patrick Fishburn 1.18% 85 81 44
Patrick Rodgers 0.68% 147 151 77
Patton Kizzire 0.13% 769 501 93
Paul Peterson 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 77 -0.1 Betway: 300/1, 7pl, 1/5
Peter Malnati 0.10% 1000 751 126
Philip Knowles 0.08% 1250 1001
Pierceson Coody 0.74% 135 71 3
Preston Stout 0.10% 1000 226 77
Quade Cummins 0.61% 164 251 0.20% 93 -0.2 Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rafael Campos 0.10% 1000 1501 133
Rickie Fowler 1.96% 51 41 28
Ricky Castillo 0.55% 182 176 77
Rico Hoey 1.35% 74 67 57
Ryan Palmer 0.01% 10000 5001 109
Ryo Hisatsune 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sahith Theegala 0.52% 192 91 109
Sam Burns 3.64% 27 19 61
Sam Ryder 0.72% 139 126 68
Sam Stevens 1.15% 87 67 2
Sami Valimaki 0.47% 213 161 77
Seamus Power 0.83% 120 201 0.30% 28 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Si Woo Kim 2.14% 47 36 109
Stephen Stallings 0.01% 10000 1501 140
Steven Fisk 0.44% 227 201 74
Sungjae Im 1.69% 59 51 126
Takumi Kanaya 0.50% 200 151 7
Taylor Dickson 0.05% 2000 2501 76
Taylor Montgomery 0.39% 256 201 12
Taylor Moore 0.92% 109 101 14
Taylor Pendrith 2.12% 47 36 68
Thomas Campbell 0.00% 10000 2501 153
Thomas Rosenmueller 0.43% 233 201 25
Thorbjorn Olesen 1.09% 92 91 14
Thriston Lawrence 0.62% 161 151 126
Tom Hoge 0.65% 154 101 155
Tom Kim 1.19% 84 81 28
Tony Finau 1.55% 65 41 147
Trevor Cone 0.18% 556 351 61
Trey Mullinax 0.16% 625 401 133
Troy Merritt 0.06% 1667 1001 44
Victor Perez 0.98% 102 126 0.20% 28 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Whaley 1.01% 99 81 57
Webb Simpson 0.38% 263 151 93
Will Chandler 0.09% 1111 1001 154
Will Gordon 0.49% 204 276 0.10% 126 -0.1 Betfred: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Mouw 0.53% 189 126 7
Wyndham Clark 2.32% 43 26 12
Yi Cao 0.04% 2500 2501 77
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 301 93

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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