Simulation Results: OccuNet Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.03%	3333	501
Alistair Docherty	1.95%	51	41
Alvaro Ortiz	0.97%	103	61
Aman Gupta	0.01%	10000	1001
Andrew Kozan	0.12%	833	401
Andrew McLauchlan	0.00%	10000	501
Augusto Nunez	0.11%	909	201
Austin Duncan	0.23%	435	251
Austin Hitt	0.69%	145	101
Barend Botha	0.72%	139	251	0.30%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Carr	0.96%	104	81
Ben Kohles	3.55%	28	26
Ben Taylor	1.15%	87	71
Billy Tom Sargent	0.14%	714	501
Blades Brown	4.66%	21	17
Blaine Hale	0.29%	345	301
Blake Abercrombie	0.00%	10000	751
Brandon Berry	0.10%	1000	601
Brandon Harkins	0.26%	385	251
Brandon Wu	0.36%	278	151
Brett White	0.14%	714	501
Bryce Lewis	0.49%	204	151
Bryson Nimmer	0.06%	1667	501
Caleb VanArragon	2.59%	39	34
Cameron Champ	0.44%	227	126
Cameron Sisk	0.01%	10000	751
Carl Yuan	1.46%	68	81	0.20%			BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carson Bacha	0.31%	323	201
Carson Young	1.56%	64	41
Chad Sewell	0.16%	625	301
Chan Kim	3.02%	33	29
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.16%	625	301
Chez Reavie	1.30%	77	101	0.30%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Francoeur	0.56%	179	276	0.20%			Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Korte	0.22%	455	301
Christiaan Maas	1.79%	56	34
Cody Blick	0.02%	5000	401
Cole Hammer	1.28%	78	51
Cole Sherwood	2.77%	36	34
Cristobal Del Solar	0.65%	154	101
Dan McCarthy	0.13%	769	501
Daniel Summerhays	0.18%	556	226
David Kocher	0.25%	400	301
Davis Lamb	0.66%	152	101
Davis Shore	1.33%	75	51
Derek Hitchner	0.42%	238	351	0.10%			Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Stewart	0.02%	5000	751
Doc Redman	1.78%	56	34
Dylan Menante	1.33%	75	46
Fabian Gomez	1.31%	76	81	0.10%			Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filip Jakubcik	0.04%	2500	61
Frankie Harris	0.70%	143	81
Harry Higgs	0.85%	118	126	0.10%			PaddyPower: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	1.34%	75	101	0.40%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Eichhorn	2.55%	39	29
Ian Gilligan	0.79%	127	56
Ian Holt	0.92%	109	71
Jack Maguire	0.12%	833	251
Jackson Buchanan	0.14%	714
Jacob Solomon	0.32%	313	226
James Nicholas	0.78%	128	101
James Song	0.01%	10000	1251
Jase Summy	0.00%	10000	56
Jay Card	0.91%	110	126	0.10%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayce Hargrove	0.02%	5000	751
Jeremy Gandon	0.90%	111	71
Jeremy Paul	0.78%	128	71
Joe Weiler	0.22%	455	251
Joel Thelen	0.04%	2500	401
John Daly	0.03%	3333
John Marshall Butler	0.62%	161	111
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.67%	149	71
Jorge Garcia	0.24%	417	301
Joseph Bramlett	1.32%	76	56
Josh Teater	0.34%	294	151
Joshua Creel	0.14%	714	501
Julian Suri	0.45%	222	251	0.10%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Hastings	0.15%	667	401
Justin Suh	0.63%	159	91
Kevin Dougherty	0.48%	208	251	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Cottam	0.70%	143	301	0.40%			Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Westmoreland	0.45%	222	161
Logan McAllister	1.03%	97	71
Luke Guthrie	0.58%	172	401	0.30%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.53%	189	251	0.10%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Potter	0.01%	10000	71
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.20%	500	151
Marshall Meisel	0.14%	714	751
Matt Atkins	0.79%	127	101
Matt NeSmith	0.51%	196	251	0.10%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Riedel	0.17%	588	601
Maxwell Moldovan	0.96%	104	151	0.30%			Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Feagles	0.15%	667	401
Michael Johnson	1.81%	55	41
Michael Sanders	0.01%	10000	751
Michael Thompson	0.06%	1667	201
Mitchell Meissner	0.98%	102	56
Nick Gabrelcik	0.30%	333	151
Nick Hardy	0.67%	149	126
Nick Infanti	0.13%	769	501
Nicolo Galletti	0.62%	161	151
Noah Goodwin	0.63%	159	126
Norman Xiong	0.37%	270	251
Paul Barjon	0.16%	625	351
Phichaksn Maichon	0.26%	385	301
Philip Knowles	0.19%	526	301
Preston Summerhays	0.30%	333	201
R.J. Manke	0.06%	1667	501
Rayhan Thomas	0.87%	115	91
Rhein Gibson	0.25%	400	401
Ricardo Celia	0.57%	175	401	0.30%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb	0.93%	108	101
Rob Oppenheim	0.15%	667	251
Robbie Higgins	0.04%	2500	401
Robby Shelton	0.63%	159	111
Robert Garrigus	0.02%	5000	501
Ross Steelman	1.74%	57	46
Russell Knox	0.45%	222	151
Ryan Blaum	0.29%	345	226
Ryan Brehm	0.14%	714	751
Ryan Burnett	0.51%	196	226	0.10%			Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick	0.62%	161	251	0.20%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Palmer	0.03%	3333	301
Ryan Sullivan	0.03%	3333	751
Ryo Ishikawa	1.68%	60	91	0.60%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.19%	526	201
Sandy Scott	1.22%	82	56
Seung-Yul Noh	1.96%	51	51
Spencer Levin	0.05%	2000	1251
Stuart Macdonald	0.28%	357	351
Taylor Dickson	0.75%	133	101
Taylor Montgomery	0.57%	175	81
Tegan Andrews	0.03%	3333	501
Theo Humphrey	0.36%	278	301
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.53%	189	226	0.10%			Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney	0.72%	139	176	0.20%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Morrison	0.17%	588	71
Travis Trace	0.90%	111	91
Trent Phillips	1.75%	57	61	0.10%			Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trevor Cone	0.77%	130	101
Trey Winstead	0.14%	714	251
Turk Pettit	0.68%	147	81
Tyler Duncan	0.58%	172	251	0.20%			Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.25%	400	351
Tyson Alexander	0.10%	1000	401
Vicente Marzilio	0.34%	294	251
Wells Williams	0.07%	1429	126
Will Cannon	0.76%	132	151	0.10%			BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.38%	263	176
Will Gordon	0.47%	213	401	0.20%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Jennings	3.06%	33	67	1.60%			Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
William Sides	0.68%	147	71
Wilson Furr	0.32%	313	201
Wyatt Provence	0.00%	10000	251
Yuta Sugiura	0.66%	152	126
Zack Fischer	0.46%	217	161

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.29%	345	201
Alvaro Ortiz	0.91%	110	71
Aman Gupta	0.10%	1000	351
Andrew Kozan	0.38%	263	201
Andrew McLauchlan	0.15%	667	201
Augusto Nunez	0.36%	278	126
Austin Duncan	0.49%	204	151
Austin Hitt	0.75%	133	101
Barend Botha	0.94%	106	101
Ben Carr	0.95%	105	81
Ben Taylor	0.98%	102	81
Billy Tom Sargent	0.50%	200	201
Blaine Hale	0.49%	204	126
Blake Abercrombie	0.13%	769	276
Brandon Berry	0.35%	286	201
Brandon Harkins	0.51%	196	151
Brandon Hoelzer	0.21%	476	176
Brett White	0.41%	244	176
Bryce Lewis	0.66%	152	126
Bryson Nimmer	0.29%	345	226
Caleb VanArragon	1.29%	78	51
Cameron Champ	0.58%	172	101
Cameron Sisk	0.14%	714	276
Carson Bacha	0.65%	154	126
Carson Young	1.01%	99	51
Chad Sewell	0.48%	208	151
Chan Kim	1.45%	69	46
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.39%	256	171
Chez Reavie	1.01%	99	101
Chris Francoeur	0.81%	123	126
Chris Korte	0.48%	208	176
Christiaan Maas	1.37%	73	46
Cody Blick	0.21%	476	201
Cole Hammer	1.16%	86	56
Cole Sherwood	1.36%	74	46
Corey Shaun	0.27%	370
Cristobal Del Solar	0.72%	139	101
Dan McCarthy	0.42%	238	176
Daniel Summerhays	0.44%	227	151
David Kocher	0.49%	204	176
Davis Lamb	0.84%	119	101
Davis Shore	1.17%	85	67
Derek Hitchner	0.73%	137	141
Dillon Stewart	0.21%	476	276
Doc Redman	1.12%	89	46
Dylan Menante	1.04%	96	61
Fabian Gomez	1.02%	98	81
Filip Jakubcik	0.20%	500	71
Frankie Harris	0.80%	125	81
Harry Higgs	0.86%	116	101
Hayden Buckley	1.04%	96	81
Hunter Eichhorn	1.58%	63	41
Ian Gilligan	0.81%	123	71
Ian Holt	0.85%	118	81
J.J. Grey	0.31%	323	276
Jack Maguire	0.37%	270	151
Jackson Buchanan	0.38%	263
Jacob Solomon	0.58%	172	151
Jake Peacock	0.64%	156	126
James Nicholas	0.79%	127	101
James Song	0.19%	526	351
Jase Summy	0.14%	714	71
Jay Card	1.00%	100	101
Jayce Hargrove	0.19%	526	276
Jeremy Gandon	0.99%	101	81
Jeremy Paul	0.78%	128	81
Jim Herman	0.17%	588	276
Joe Weiler	0.57%	175	126
Joel Thelen	0.21%	476	201
John Daly	0.18%	556
John Marshall Butler	0.69%	145	101
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.76%	132	81
Jorge Garcia	0.47%	213	161
Joseph Bramlett	1.00%	100	67
Josh Teater	0.61%	164	126
Joshua Creel	0.42%	238	201
Julian Suri	0.68%	147	151
Justin Hastings	0.49%	204	176
Justin Suh	0.86%	116	101
Kevin Dougherty	0.77%	130	126
Kyle Cottam	0.91%	110	176	0.30%			Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Westmoreland	0.67%	149	126
Logan McAllister	1.07%	93	71
Luke Guthrie	0.66%	152	201	0.20%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.67%	149	151
Luke Potter	0.14%	714	81
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.53%	189	111
Marshall Meisel	0.46%	217	226
Matt Atkins	0.93%	108	101
Matt NeSmith	0.67%	149	151
Matthew Riedel	0.55%	182	201	0.10%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maxwell Moldovan	0.91%	110	101
Michael Feagles	0.52%	192	181
Michael Johnson	1.12%	89	56
Michael Miller	0.40%	250	201
Michael Sanders	0.10%	1000	276
Michael Thompson	0.29%	345	126
Mitchell Meissner	0.89%	112	71
Nelson Ledesma	0.42%	238	126
Nick Gabrelcik	0.60%	167	126
Nick Infanti	0.40%	250	201
Nicolo Galletti	0.75%	133	126
Noah Goodwin	0.75%	133	101
Norman Xiong	0.60%	167	126
Paul Barjon	0.42%	238	176
Petr Hruby	0.76%	132	126
Phichaksn Maichon	0.60%	167	126
Philip Knowles	0.57%	175	176
Preston Summerhays	0.57%	175	126
R.J. Manke	0.38%	263	226
Rayhan Thomas	0.96%	104	101
Rhein Gibson	0.47%	213	171
Ricardo Celia	0.84%	119	151	0.20%			Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb	0.85%	118	101
Rob Oppenheim	0.43%	233	151
Robbie Higgins	0.28%	357	201
Robby Shelton	0.67%	149	101
Robert Garrigus	0.23%	435	201
Ross Steelman	1.15%	87	61
Russell Knox	0.65%	154	126
Ryan Blaum	0.60%	167	151
Ryan Burnett	0.77%	130	126
Ryan McCormick	0.88%	114	126	0.10%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Palmer	0.29%	345	161
Ryan Sullivan	0.25%	400	276
Ryo Ishikawa	1.09%	92	101	0.10%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.57%	175	151
Sandy Scott	0.97%	103	67
Seung-Yul Noh	1.39%	72	61
Spencer Levin	0.26%	385	351
Stuart Macdonald	0.55%	182	151
Taylor Dickson	0.92%	109	101
Taylor Montgomery	0.86%	116	81
Tegan Andrews	0.29%	345	251
Theo Humphrey	0.56%	179	126
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.77%	130	126
Tom Whitney	0.75%	133	126
Tommy Morrison	0.47%	213	81
Travis Trace	1.03%	97	101
Trent Phillips	1.29%	78	71
Trevor Cone	0.80%	125	101
Trey Winstead	0.33%	303	126
Turk Pettit	0.73%	137	81
Tyler Duncan	0.68%	147	126
Tyler Leach	0.63%	159	181	0.10%			Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander	0.37%	270	201
Vicente Marzilio	0.56%	179	126
Wells Williams	0.36%	278	101
Will Cannon	0.74%	135	126
Will Chandler	0.59%	169	126
Will Gordon	0.83%	120	126
William Sides	0.84%	119	81
Wilson Furr	0.56%	179	126
Wyatt Provence	0.13%	769	151
Yuta Sugiura	0.83%	120	101
Zack Fischer	0.64%	156	126

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: William Jennings	3.06%	33	67	1.60%			Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Ryo Ishikawa	1.68%	60	91	0.60%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hayden Buckley	1.34%	75	101	0.40%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kyle Cottam	0.91%	110	176	0.30%			Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Ricardo Celia	0.84%	119	151	0.20%			Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Luke Guthrie	0.66%	152	201	0.20%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ryo Ishikawa	1.09%	92	101	0.10%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ryan McCormick	0.88%	114	126	0.10%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tyler Leach	0.63%	159	181	0.10%			Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.