Simulation Results: Myrtle Beach Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	0.62%	161	91
Aaron Rai	2.60%	38	36
Aaron Wise	0.02%	5000	551
Adam Hadwin	0.53%	189	151
Adam Schenk	0.28%	357	176
Adam Svensson	0.50%	200	121
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	1.49%	67	41
Adrien Saddier	0.67%	149	101
Alejandro Tosti	0.03%	3333	301
Austin Eckroat	2.41%	41	41
Beau Hossler	1.30%	77	71
Ben Kohles	0.46%	217	126
Ben Martin	0.11%	909	601
Ben Silverman	0.22%	455	276
Billy Horschel	1.08%	93	61
Blades Brown	0.88%	114	46
Brandt Snedeker	0.46%	217	201
Brendon Todd	0.02%	5000	1251
Brice Garnett	0.17%	588	351
Brooks Koepka	4.33%	23	15
Cam Davis	0.05%	2000	351
Camilo Villegas	0.03%	3333	501
Carson Young	0.68%	147	101
Casey Jarvis	0.92%	109	41
Chad Ramey	1.41%	71	61
Chan Kim	0.14%	714	161
Chandler Phillips	0.47%	213	161
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.98%	25	46	1.80%			Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.09%	1111	161
Connor Doyal	0.00%	10000	2501
Cooper Hrabak	0.00%	10000	2501
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.19%	84	67
Danny Walker	0.07%	1429	201
Danny Willett	0.07%	1429	701
David Skinns	0.42%	238	151
Davis Chatfield	0.17%	588	251
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	301
Davis Thompson	4.03%	25	18
Doug Ghim	3.15%	32	51	1.20%			Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu	0.54%	185	131
Emiliano Grillo	1.16%	86	86
Eric Cole	2.73%	37	46	0.60%			Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	0.56%	179	126
Evan Harmeling	0.00%	10000	1501
Garrick Higgo	0.45%	222	91
Gordon Sargent	0.15%	667	251
Grant Haefner	0.01%	10000	5001
Grayson Wood	0.00%	10000	2001
Hank Lebioda	0.27%	370	131
Haotong Li	1.77%	56	41
Hayden Springer	0.65%	154	101
Henrik Norlander	0.25%	400	276
Jackson Suber	0.23%	435	151
James Hahn	0.00%	10000	1001
Jeffrey Kang	0.08%	1250	351
Jeremy Paul	0.14%	714	401
Jesper Svensson	0.58%	172	91
Jimmy Stanger	0.14%	714	161
Joe Highsmith	0.16%	625	201
Joel Dahmen	0.47%	213	111
John Parry	2.94%	34	51	1.00%			Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.15%	667	151
Johnny Keefer	1.19%	84	56
Justin Lower	0.13%	769	276
Karl Vilips	0.73%	137	67
Keita Nakajima	0.20%	500	151
Kensei Hirata	0.14%	714	326
Kevin Roy	0.93%	108	61
Kevin Streelman	0.20%	500	226
Kevin Yu	1.73%	58	29
Kris Ventura	1.12%	89	61
Lanto Griffin	0.40%	250	176
Lee Hodges	1.67%	60	61
Luke Clanton	0.25%	400	141
Mac Meissner	2.74%	36	31
Marcelo Rozo	0.02%	5000	551
Marco Penge	1.58%	63	21
Mark Hubbard	0.67%	149	111
Martin Laird	0.08%	1250	551
Matt Kuchar	0.81%	123	141	0.10%			Spreadex: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	1.05%	95	101	0.10%			Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid	1.77%	56	41
Max Greyserman	1.93%	52	46
Max McGreevy	1.63%	61	41
Nathan Petronzio	0.00%	10000
Neal Shipley	0.19%	526	131
Nicholas Marchese	0.00%	10000	2001
Nick Dunlap	0.13%	769	181
Nick Hardy	0.19%	526	276
Patrick Fishburn	0.41%	244	141
Patton Kizzire	0.18%	556	276
Paul Peterson	0.18%	556	401
Peter Malnati	0.11%	909	426
Petr Hruby	0.06%	1667	501
Pontus Nyholm	0.16%	625	111
Rafael Campos	0.03%	3333	601
Rasmus Hojgaard	3.21%	31	26
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	2.34%	43	31
Rico Hoey	1.92%	52	36
Robert Streb	0.00%	10000	1251
Ryan Brehm	0.02%	5000	1001
Ryan Ruffels	0.00%	10000	1001
Sam Ryder	1.08%	93	81
Sami Valimaki	2.47%	40	51	0.50%			Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seamus Power	2.68%	37	61	1.10%			Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephan Jaeger	2.10%	48	46
Steven Fisk	1.43%	70	46
Takumi Kanaya	1.33%	75	131	0.60%			Skybet: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Taylor Moore	1.43%	70	56
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.14%	714	251
Thriston Lawrence	1.57%	64	101	0.60%			Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Kim	1.41%	71	56
Trace Crowe	0.71%	141	67
Trent Phillips	0.13%	769	141
Troy Merritt	0.06%	1667	551
Tyler Collet	0.00%	10000	1501
Tyler Duncan	0.08%	1250	201
Vince Whaley	1.54%	65	67
Wells Williams	0.00%	10000	1001
William Mouw	1.14%	88	41
Zac Blair	0.88%	114	111
Zach Bauchou	0.56%	179	67
Zecheng Dou	0.59%	169	81

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A.J. Ewart	1.09%	92	71
Aaron Rai	2.45%	41	51	0.50%			Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wise	0.07%	1429	226
Adam Hadwin	0.49%	204	111
Adam Schenk	0.38%	263	126
Adam Svensson	1.06%	94	91
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	0.98%	102	51
Adrien Saddier	0.61%	164	91
Alejandro Tosti	0.10%	1000	151
Austin Eckroat	1.26%	79	56
Beau Hossler	1.60%	63	71	0.20%			BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Kohles	0.45%	222	111
Ben Martin	0.46%	217	181
Ben Silverman	0.34%	294	151
Billy Horschel	1.50%	67	61
Blades Brown	0.65%	154	51
Brandt Snedeker	0.95%	105	111
Brendon Todd	0.09%	1111	351
Brice Garnett	0.30%	333	201
Brooks Koepka	3.41%	29	29
Cam Davis	0.12%	833	151
Camilo Villegas	0.26%	385	181
Carson Young	0.55%	182	81
Casey Jarvis	1.32%	76	51
Chad Ramey	0.92%	109	67
Chan Kim	0.54%	185	111
Chandler Phillips	0.44%	227	111
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.21%	31	56	1.50%			Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht	0.19%	526	111
Connor Doyal	0.01%	10000	351
Cooper Hrabak	0.00%	10000	501
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.85%	118	67
Danny Walker	0.41%	244	126
Danny Willett	0.17%	588	226
David Skinns	0.88%	114	101
Davis Chatfield	0.29%	345	141
Davis Riley	0.40%	250	151
Davis Thompson	3.10%	32	34	0.20%			BetMGM: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Doug Ghim	1.51%	66	67
Dylan Wu	0.54%	185	111
Emiliano Grillo	1.49%	67	81	0.30%			Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eric Cole	2.50%	40	56	0.70%			William Hill: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Van Rooyen	1.12%	89	81
Evan Harmeling	0.02%	5000	401
Garrick Higgo	0.47%	213	81
Gordon Sargent	0.56%	179	111
Grant Haefner	0.10%	1000	401
Grayson Wood	0.00%	10000	301
Hank Lebioda	0.73%	137	91
Haotong Li	1.10%	91	51
Hayden Springer	0.60%	167	81
Henrik Norlander	0.30%	333	141
Jackson Suber	0.34%	294	101
James Hahn	0.07%	1429	301
Jeffrey Kang	0.18%	556	151
Jeremy Paul	0.28%	357	201
Jesper Svensson	1.03%	97	81
Jimmy Stanger	0.50%	200	101
Joe Highsmith	0.57%	175	126
Joel Dahmen	0.46%	217	91
John Parry	2.78%	36	56	1.00%			Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan	0.48%	208	111
Johnny Keefer	0.78%	128	61
Justin Lower	0.25%	400	141
Karl Vilips	1.14%	88	71
Keita Nakajima	0.30%	333	111
Kensei Hirata	0.43%	233	131
Kevin Roy	1.39%	72	67
Kevin Streelman	0.56%	179	111
Kevin Yu	1.05%	95	51
Kris Ventura	1.48%	68	67
Lanto Griffin	0.46%	217	126
Lee Hodges	1.95%	51	61	0.30%			Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Clanton	0.67%	149	101
Mac Meissner	1.49%	67	46
Marcelo Rozo	0.18%	556	201
Marco Penge	0.96%	104	36
Mark Hubbard	1.16%	86	91	0.10%			BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Martin Laird	0.36%	278	201
Matt Kuchar	1.21%	83	111	0.30%			Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	1.51%	66	71	0.10%			BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matti Schmid	1.92%	52	51
Max Greyserman	1.08%	93	56
Max McGreevy	1.85%	54	51
Nathan Petronzio	0.03%	3333	301
Neal Shipley	0.28%	357	111
Nicholas Marchese	0.00%	10000	401
Nick Dunlap	0.46%	217	111
Nick Hardy	0.30%	333	151
Patrick Fishburn	0.87%	115	101
Patton Kizzire	0.58%	172	126
Paul Peterson	0.53%	189	176
Peter Malnati	0.46%	217	176
Petr Hruby	0.35%	286	201
Pontus Nyholm	0.23%	435	91
Rafael Campos	0.13%	769	226
Rasmus Hojgaard	1.55%	65	36
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.21%	83	46
Rico Hoey	1.11%	90	51
Robert Streb	0.02%	5000	351
Ryan Brehm	0.16%	625	301
Ryan Ruffels	0.02%	5000	301
Sam Ryder	0.80%	125	81
Sami Valimaki	1.34%	75	56
Seamus Power	1.41%	71	67
Stephan Jaeger	2.22%	45	51	0.30%			Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Fisk	1.68%	60	56
Takumi Kanaya	1.70%	59	91	0.60%			Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Moore	1.80%	56	61	0.20%			Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.24%	417	141
Thriston Lawrence	0.99%	101	81
Tom Kim	1.68%	60	61
Trace Crowe	0.62%	161	71
Trent Phillips	0.25%	400	111
Troy Merritt	0.29%	345	226
Tyler Collet	0.01%	10000	401
Tyler Duncan	0.35%	286	141
Vince Whaley	0.96%	104	81
Wells Williams	0.02%	5000	251
William Mouw	0.84%	119
Zac Blair	0.73%	137	101
Zach Bauchou	1.02%	98	71
Zecheng Dou	1.02%	98	81

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.98%	25	46	1.80%			Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Doug Ghim	3.15%	32	51	1.20%			Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Seamus Power	2.68%	37	61	1.10%			Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Christiaan Bezuidenhout	3.21%	31	56	1.50%			Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: John Parry	2.78%	36	56	1.00%			Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Eric Cole	2.50%	40	56	0.70%			William Hill: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Takumi Kanaya	1.70%	59	91	0.60%			Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Aaron Rai	2.45%	41	51	0.50%			Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Stephan Jaeger	2.22%	45	51	0.30%			Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.