Simulation Results: Panama Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.32%	76	61
Alistair Docherty	1.46%	68	71	0.10%			Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Ortiz	0.64%	156	131
Augusto Nunez	0.26%	385	201
Austin Cook	0.26%	385	276
Austin Hitt	1.01%	99	86
Barend Botha	2.06%	49	26
Ben Kohles	2.81%	36	26
Ben Martin	3.85%	26	34	0.90%			Star Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman	1.03%	97	41
Ben Taylor	1.26%	79	81
Blades Brown	1.33%	75	34
Blaine Hale	0.13%	769	301
Braden Thornberry	0.72%	139	151	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Berry	0.27%	370	251
Brandon Matthews	0.05%	2000	401
Brandon Wu	0.82%	122	141	0.10%			Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett White	0.45%	222	161
Bryce Lewis	0.36%	278	226
Bryson Nimmer	0.44%	227	201
Caleb VanArragon	1.80%	56	46
Cameron Champ	1.77%	56	41
Carson Bacha	0.14%	714	226
Carson Young	0.98%	102	36
Chad Sewell	0.10%	1000	501
Chan Kim	0.91%	110	46
Chez Reavie	0.14%	714	501
Cole Hammer	0.90%	111	71
Cole Sherwood	1.24%	81	71
Cooper Dossey	1.54%	65	41
Cristobal Del Solar	0.34%	294	501	0.10%			Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Daniel Summerhays	0.38%	263	201
David Perkins	0.10%	1000	351
David Skinns	1.04%	96	81
Davis Lamb	0.91%	110	81
Davis Shore	0.58%	172	71
Derek Hitchner	0.30%	333	151
Dillon Stewart	0.21%	476	301
Doc Redman	0.88%	114	61
Drew Goodman	0.08%	1250	601
Drew Nesbitt	0.09%	1111	351
Dylan Menante	1.35%	74	67
Fabian Gomez	0.27%	370	151
Fred Biondi	0.22%	455	276
Harry Higgs	0.73%	137	91
Harry Hillier	0.16%	625	351
Hayden Buckley	2.02%	50	56	0.20%			Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	2.81%	36	34
Hunter Eichhorn	1.16%	86	151	0.50%			Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hunter Wolcott	0.07%	1429	351
Ian Gilligan	0.42%	238	131
Ian Holt	2.48%	40	34
Jack Maguire	0.97%	103	126	0.20%			Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jackson Buchanan	0.52%	192	91
Jackson Van Paris	0.89%	112	71
James Nicholas	0.71%	141	126
James Song	0.02%	5000	2001
Jay Card	0.37%	270	111
Jeff Overton	0.26%	385	226
Jeremy Gandon	0.50%	200	176
Joe Weiler	0.65%	154	126
John Marshall Butler	0.21%	476	201
John Pak	1.17%	85	51
Jonathan Byrd	1.31%	76	67
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.67%	149	126
Jorge Garcia	0.12%	833	501
Joseph Bramlett	1.80%	56	81	0.60%			Star Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josh Teater	0.19%	526	201
Juan Motta	0.01%	10000	401
Julian Suri	0.78%	128	101
Justin Suh	0.67%	149	86
Kaito Onishi	0.23%	435	251
Kevin Dougherty	1.27%	79	81
Kevin Velo	0.53%	189	151
KK Limbhasut	0.06%	1667	351
Kyle Westmoreland	0.46%	217	201
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.20%	500	176
Logan McAllister	0.80%	125	81
Lucca Gonzalez	0.01%	10000	401
Marshall Meisel	1.12%	89	301	0.80%			Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Martin Laird	0.52%	192	131
Mason Andersen	0.96%	104	111	0.10%			Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Atkins	0.77%	130	81
Matt NeSmith	0.52%	192	226	0.10%			Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Anderson	0.14%	714	351
Matthew Riedel	0.39%	256	201
Maxwell Moldovan	0.06%	1667	501
Michael Feagles	0.97%	103	226	0.50%			Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	1.08%	93	101	0.10%			Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mitchell Meissner	2.08%	48	34
Myles Creighton	0.75%	133	151	0.10%			Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Nicholas Infanti	0.06%	1667	501
Nick Gabrelcik	1.05%	95	51
Nick Hardy	1.61%	62	81	0.40%			Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolo Galletti	0.76%	132	126
Noah Goodwin	1.63%	61	41
Norman Xiong	0.17%	588	251
Parker Coody	0.24%	417	251
Paul Barjon	0.06%	1667	401
Paul Peterson	1.09%	92	71
Peter Kuest	0.30%	333	111
Phichaksn Maichon	0.24%	417	251
Philip Knowles	0.31%	323	301
Preston Summerhays	0.14%	714	276
Rayhan Thomas	0.39%	256	161
Rhein Gibson	0.14%	714	301
Ricardo Celia	0.12%	833	401
Rick Lamb	1.00%	100	101
Rob Oppenheim	0.20%	500	501
Robby Shelton	0.44%	227	91
Roger Sloan	0.98%	102	86
Ross Steelman	0.84%	119	71
Russell Knox	0.54%	185	111
Ryan Blaum	0.13%	769	501
Ryan Brehm	0.20%	500	301
Ryan Burnett	0.19%	526	301
Ryan Grider	0.01%	10000	1501
Ryan Sullivan	0.01%	10000	2001
Ryo Ishikawa	0.32%	313	111
Sam Choi	0.15%	667	501
Samuel Anderson	0.35%	286	201
Sandy Scott	0.45%	222	151
Sebastian Cappelen	0.73%	137	176	0.20%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Seung-Yul Noh	1.03%	97	46
Shad Tuten	0.38%	263	176
Spencer Levin	0.12%	833	501
Stuart Macdonald	0.66%	152	176	0.10%			Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Dickson	1.07%	93	111	0.20%			Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.19%	84	81
Theo Humphrey	0.13%	769	251
Trent Phillips	2.56%	39	26
Trevor Cone	1.08%	93	41
Trey Winstead	0.73%	137	111
Troy Merritt	0.57%	175	111
Tyler Duncan	0.77%	130	201	0.30%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.07%	1429	751
Tyson Alexander	0.18%	556	601
Vicente Marzilio	0.08%	1250	501
Wil Bateman	0.25%	400	226
Will Chandler	0.09%	1111	351
Will Gordon	1.27%	79	71
Wilson Furr	0.53%	189	101
Yuta Sugiura	0.16%	625	151
Zac Blair	0.99%	101	26

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.57%	64	56
Alistair Docherty	1.64%	61	71	0.20%			VirginBet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Ortiz	1.18%	85	101	0.20%			VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Augusto Nunez	0.30%	333	126
Austin Cook	0.30%	333	141
Austin Hitt	1.38%	72	81	0.10%			VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Barend Botha	0.78%	128	41
Ben Kohles	0.87%	115	36
Ben Martin	0.99%	101	51
Ben Silverman	0.53%	189	51
Ben Taylor	1.56%	64	71	0.20%			Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blades Brown	0.62%	161	51
Blaine Hale	0.59%	169	176
Braden Thornberry	0.43%	233	101
Brandon Berry	0.77%	130	126
Brandon Matthews	0.47%	213	201
Brandon Wu	1.26%	79	91	0.20%			Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett White	0.32%	313	111
Bryce Lewis	0.37%	270	126
Bryson Nimmer	0.34%	294	111
Caleb VanArragon	1.75%	57	56
Cameron Champ	0.70%	143	56
Carson Bacha	0.21%	476	126
Carson Young	0.52%	192	46
Chad Sewell	0.51%	196	176
Chan Kim	0.52%	192	61
Chez Reavie	0.61%	164	191	0.10%			Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cole Hammer	0.51%	196	71
Cole Sherwood	1.49%	67	71	0.10%			Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cooper Dossey	0.62%	161	51
Cristobal Del Solar	0.33%	303	191
Daniel Summerhays	0.35%	286	126
David Perkins	0.19%	526	141
David Skinns	0.54%	185	81
Davis Lamb	0.48%	208	76
Davis Shore	0.41%	244	71
Derek Hitchner	0.29%	345	126
Dillon Stewart	0.76%	132	176	0.20%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doc Redman	0.48%	208	61
Drew Goodman	0.53%	189	201
Drew Nesbitt	0.58%	172	141
Dylan Menante	1.52%	66	61
Fabian Gomez	0.84%	119	101
Fred Biondi	0.81%	123	141	0.10%			Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Harry Higgs	1.22%	82	91	0.10%			VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harry Hillier	0.76%	132	176	0.20%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hayden Buckley	1.79%	56	61	0.20%			Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	0.85%	118	46
Hunter Eichhorn	0.56%	179	111
Hunter Wolcott	0.16%	625	151
Ian Gilligan	0.39%	256	101
Ian Holt	1.96%	51	51
Jack Maguire	1.39%	72	81	0.20%			Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jackson Buchanan	1.07%	93	86
Jackson Van Paris	0.48%	208	71
James Nicholas	1.15%	87	91	0.10%			VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Song	0.34%	294	401	0.10%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jay Card	0.98%	102	91
Jeff Overton	0.28%	357	126
Jeremy Gandon	0.39%	256	126
Joe Weiler	1.17%	85	91	0.10%			VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Marshall Butler	0.77%	130	126
John Pak	1.54%	65	56
Jonathan Byrd	1.60%	63	67	0.10%			VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.16%	86	76
Jorge Garcia	0.62%	161	201	0.10%			VirginBet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joseph Bramlett	0.72%	139	67
Josh Teater	0.26%	385	126
Juan Motta	0.26%	385	176
Julian Suri	1.26%	79	91	0.20%			VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Suh	0.45%	222	91
Kaito Onishi	0.25%	400	126
Kevin Dougherty	0.58%	172	81
Kevin Velo	0.41%	244	111
KK Limbhasut	0.46%	217	151
Kyle Westmoreland	1.07%	93	111	0.20%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.65%	154	126
Logan McAllister	0.49%	204	81
Lucca Gonzalez	0.08%	1250	176
Marshall Meisel	0.55%	182	176
Martin Laird	0.43%	233	101
Mason Andersen	1.31%	76	76
Matt Atkins	1.29%	78	71
Matt NeSmith	0.42%	238	126
Matthew Anderson	0.22%	455	176
Matthew Riedel	0.90%	111	111
Maxwell Moldovan	0.54%	185	191
Michael Feagles	1.32%	76	126	0.50%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	0.54%	185	76
Mitchell Meissner	0.77%	130	56
Myles Creighton	0.49%	204	126
Nicholas Infanti	0.44%	227	201
Nick Gabrelcik	1.41%	71	67
Nick Hardy	0.60%	167	71
Nicolo Galletti	1.28%	78	126	0.50%			Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.63%	159	51
Norman Xiong	0.26%	385	126
Parker Coody	0.78%	128	126
Paul Barjon	0.47%	213	176
Paul Peterson	0.52%	192	71
Peter Kuest	0.28%	357	101
Phichaksn Maichon	0.28%	357	126
Philip Knowles	0.91%	110	151	0.20%			Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Preston Summerhays	0.62%	161	151
Rayhan Thomas	0.94%	106	126	0.10%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rhein Gibson	0.68%	147	176	0.10%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ricardo Celia	0.19%	526	176
Rick Lamb	0.54%	185	81
Rob Oppenheim	0.30%	333	191
Robby Shelton	0.37%	270	91
Roger Sloan	0.52%	192	81
Ross Steelman	1.27%	79	71
Russell Knox	0.39%	256	91
Ryan Blaum	0.62%	161	191	0.10%			Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Brehm	0.25%	400	161
Ryan Burnett	0.67%	149	176	0.10%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Grider	0.07%	1429	301
Ryan Sullivan	0.11%	909	401
Ryo Ishikawa	0.32%	313	101
Sam Choi	0.24%	417	176
Samuel Anderson	0.34%	294	111
Sandy Scott	1.06%	94	126	0.30%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Cappelen	0.47%	213	111
Seung-Yul Noh	0.53%	189	51
Shad Tuten	0.90%	111	126	0.10%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Spencer Levin	0.19%	526	191
Stuart Macdonald	0.44%	227	126
Taylor Dickson	1.36%	74	76
Taylor Montgomery	0.53%	189	61
Theo Humphrey	0.21%	476	126
Trent Phillips	0.80%	125	41
Trevor Cone	1.42%	70	56
Trey Winstead	0.42%	238	76
Troy Merritt	1.05%	95	101	0.10%			VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Duncan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.18%	556	301
Tyson Alexander	0.26%	385	226
Vicente Marzilio	0.46%	217	201
Wil Bateman	0.85%	118	126	0.10%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Chandler	0.57%	175	176
Will Gordon	0.60%	167	71
Wilson Furr	0.40%	250	86
Yuta Sugiura	0.25%	400	126
Zac Blair	1.40%	71	41

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ben Martin	3.85%	26	34	0.90%			Star Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Marshall Meisel	1.12%	89	301	0.80%			Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Joseph Bramlett	1.80%	56	81	0.60%			Star Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Michael Feagles	1.32%	76	126	0.50%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Nicolo Galletti	1.28%	78	126	0.50%			Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Tyler Duncan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Sandy Scott	1.06%	94	126	0.30%			VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Hayden Buckley	1.79%	56	61	0.20%			Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Alistair Docherty	1.64%	61	71	0.20%			VirginBet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the top advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays and FRL plays will be posted on Wednesdays once markets and odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

The simulation results will be updated whenever there is a field update. Check the page updates and/or subscribe to email alerts to see if the simulation results have been updated.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.